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Cash-, Debt- and Guarantee Management Report 2019 THE CASH, DEBT AND GUARANTEE MANAGEMENT REPORT 2019 1 Key figures Amount in millions of euros as of 31 December 2018 2019 Breakdown by type of debt Consolidated debt 24,186.56 24,176.22 Direct debt 5,998.39 6,802.26 Debt instruments used (direct debt) Long term EMTN 5,631.50 6,331.50 Schuldschein 37.50 37.50 Bank loans (incl. municipal loans) 181.67 161.47 Other 70.80 64.28 Short term BCP 0.00 0.00 Current accounts 76.92 207.50 Characteristics of the Flemish Debt Rating awarded by the rating agency Moody’s Long-term rating Aa2 Aa2 Outlook Stable Stable Net financing requirements 538.63 1,843.53 Debt ratio 43.62% 44.04% Debt level 4.16% 4.53% Key figures of the direct debt portfolio Fixed interest rate 99% 97% Floating interest rate 1% 3% Average interest rate 1.40% 1.42% Average remaining term to maturity (in years) 15y 01m 15y 05m 2 Contents I. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................... 5 II. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT IN 2019 ........................................................................................... 6 1. International context ................................................................. 6 2. Economic situation in Belgium and Flanders ............................... 8 3. Interest rate in 2019 .................................................................. 8 4. Interest rate prospects ............................................................ 10 III. CASH MANAGEMENT IN 2019 ................................................................................................... 11 1. Overview ................................................................................. 11 2. The Net Financing Requirement (NFR) ...................................... 12 3. The cash pools of the Government of Flanders .......................... 14 4. The Central Financing Unit (CFU) ............................................. 16 5. Investments ............................................................................ 18 IV. DEBT MANAGEMENT IN 2019 ................................................................................................... 19 1. Overview ................................................................................. 19 2. Direct debt ............................................................................... 20 2.1 Long-term debt instruments..................................................... 23 2.2 Short-term debt instruments .................................................... 27 2.3 Risk management .................................................................... 29 2.4 Decree on the optimisation of the management of the financial assets of the entities of the Government of Flanders ......................... 32 2.5 Revenue from internal financing .............................................. 39 3. Consolidated debt .................................................................... 40 3.1 Overview of consolidated debt 2017-2019 ................................ 40 3.2 Flemish consolidated gross debt in INA notification APR-20 ...... 42 3.3 Evolution of the consolidated gross debt in 2020 ...................... 45 4. Debt standard .......................................................................... 46 4.1 Objective 1: maintain a favourable rating ................................. 46 4.2 Objective 2: a positive net asset position .................................. 46 5. Public-Private Partnership ....................................................... 47 V. GUARANTEE MANAGEMENT IN 2019 ....................................................................................... 48 1. Overview ................................................................................. 48 2. The risk is limited .................................................................... 51 2.1 Executions and recoveries ........................................................ 52 3 3. Some key components ............................................................. 53 3.1 Guarantees to (local) authorities .............................................. 53 3.2 Social Housing ......................................................................... 53 3.3 VIPA ........................................................................................ 54 3.4 Schools of Tomorrow ............................................................... 54 3.5 Guarantees to large, medium and small enterprises .................. 55 VI. THE RATING OF THE FLEMISH COMMUNITY/REGION ............................................................... 56 VII. APPENDICES ............................................................................................................................... 57 1. Glossary of terms ..................................................................... 57 2. Overview of websites ............................................................... 61 4 I. INTRODUCTION In implementation of Article 104 of the Decree containing the Flemish Public Finance Codex of 29 March 2019, this report provides an overview of the cash, debt and guarantee management of the Government of Flanders during 2019. This report was finalized in May 2020. The main highlights of this annual report for 2019 are: • In 2019, the Government of Flanders placed 1 new benchmark (BM) on the international capital market: a sustainability bond of 750 million euros with a maturity of 25 years; this is the second sustainability bond after the one issued in 2018; • There was a continued focus on direct financing by the Government of Flanders for the consolidated entities Vlaamse Maatschappij voor Sociaal Wonen – VMSW (Flemish Social Housing Company), Vlaams Woningfonds – VWF (Flemish Housing Fund) and School Invest. • There was a limited reduction in consolidated debt; • There was a further reduction of the guaranteed debt level; • The Government of Flanders managed to maintain its good rating in 2019 thanks to its prudent financial and budgetary management. 5 II. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT IN 2019 1. International context After the sharp slowdown in economic activity in the second half of 2018, the global economy remained rather sluggish in 2019. According to the IMF, the world economy grew by 2.9%, the lowest level since the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. The slowdown was most pronounced in manufacturing industry, due to the trade war between the US and China, as well as sector-specific problems. The trade war between the US and China escalated in 2019, culminating in August, when tariff increases followed one another in rapid succession. This situation created a great deal of uncertainty, which made business leaders more cautious and reduced their willingness to invest. As a result, the declining demand for investment goods led to a significant weakening of manufacturing industry. Declining activity in manufacturing industry was also due to sector-specific problems, in particular in the automotive sector. In China, car sales collapsed due to the disappearance of certain tax advantages. In the euro area, especially in Germany, production was disrupted by new emission standards. In general, consumers also adopted a more ‘wait and see’ approach when buying cars, driven by new technology, regulations and mobility habits. All this had a significant effect on the growth of world trade. Total imports and exports of goods and services decreased in 2019. From September onwards, trade tensions ebbed away and hope for an agreement between the US and China increased, which was eventually reached in December. This led to greater optimism and the macroeconomic indicators pointed to a cautious revival in economic activity. Unfortunately, the spread of the coronavirus put an abrupt end to all that. The IMF currently expects the global economy to contract by 3% in 2020. Figure 1: World economy growth at lowest level since Figure 2: Export growth (year-on-year) turned 2009 negative in 2019 6 25% 20% 5 15% 4 10% 3 5% 0% 2 -5% 1 -10% 0 -1 OESO België 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2000 Source: IMF Source: Refinitiv 6 The growth figures for 2019 in the main economic zones were therefore considerably lower than for 2018. In the United States, the economy grew by 2.3% in 2019, compared with 2.9% the year before. In addition to the uncertainty surrounding the trade war, the phaseout of the fiscal stimulus measures adopted in 2017 and 2018 also had a downward effect on the growth in 2019. In China, growth fell from 6.6% in 2018 to 6.1% in 2019, the lowest level in 30 years. The trade war, as well as the planned debt reduction, affected the Chinese economy. In the euro area, growth fell from 1.9% in 2018 to 1.2% in 2019. As a very open economy, the euro area is highly sensitive to trade tensions, caused by both the US-China trade war and the Brexit negotiations. The slowdown was also more pronounced in countries where the share of manufacturing in GDP is high. In Germany, where the share of manufacturing is around 20%, growth fell from 1.5% in 2018 to 0.6% in 2019. In Italy, which has been struggling with economic problems for some time, growth fell from 0.9% in 2018 to 0.3% in 2019. Even though economic growth in 2019 was weaker than in 2018, the unemployment rate continued to fall in both the euro area (including Belgium) and the US. Unemployment in the US fell to 3.5%, a level not seen since the 1960s. The lower unemployment rates can be explained by the smaller
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