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CLIMATE CHANGE – Refining the Impacts for Ireland

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EPA STRIVE Programme 2007–2013 CLIMATE CHANGE – Refining the Impacts for Ireland (2001-CD-C3-M1) STRIVE Report Prepared for the Environmental Protection Agency by National University of Ireland, Maynooth Authors: John Sweeney, Fabrizio Albanito, Anthony Brereton, Amelia Caffarra, Rosemary Charlton, Alison Donnelly, Rowan Fealy, Joanne Fitzgerald, Nicholas Holden, Mike Jones and Conor Murphy ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY An Ghníomhaireacht um Chaomhnú Comhshaoil PO Box 3000, Johnstown Castle, Co. Wexford, Ireland Telephone: +353 53 916 0600 Fax: +353 53 916 0699 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.epa.ie © Environmental Protection Agency 2008 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report is published as part of the Science, Technology, Research and Innovation for the Environment (STRIVE) Programme 2007–2013. The programme is financed by the Irish Government under the National Development Plan 2007–2013. It is administered on behalf of the Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government by the Environmental Protection Agency which has the statutory function of co-ordinating and promoting environmental research. All OSI maps used throughout are given with permission of Ordnance Survey Ireland/Government of Ireland (Copyright Permit No. EN0059208). DISCLAIMER Although every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material contained in this publication, complete accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Neither the Environmental Protection Agency nor the author(s) accept any responsibility whatsoever for loss or damage occasioned or claimed to have been occasioned, in part or in full, as a consequence of any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of a matter contained in this publication. All or part of this publication may be reproduced without further permission, provided the source is acknowledged. The EPA STRIVE Programme addresses the need for research in Ireland to inform policymakers and other stakeholders on a range of questions in relation to environmental protection. These reports are intended as contributions to the necessary debate on the protection of the environment. EPA STRIVE PROGRAMME 2007–2013 Published by the Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland PRINTED ON RECYCLED PAPER ISBN: 978-1-84095-297-1 Price: e25 10/08/150 ii Details of Project Partners John Sweeney Fabrizio Albanito Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units Centre for the Environment and Department of Botany Department of Geography School of Natural Sciences National University of Ireland Trinity College Dublin Maynooth Dublin 2 Ireland Ireland Tel.: +353 1 7083684 E-mail: [email protected] Anthony Brereton Amelia Caffarra School of Agriculture, Food Science & Centre for the Environment and Department of Botany Veterinary Medicine School of Natural Sciences University College Dublin Trinity College Dublin Dublin 4 Dublin 2 Ireland Ireland Rosemary Charlton Alison Donnelly Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units Centre for the Environment and Department of Botany Department of Geography School of Natural Sciences National University of Ireland Trinity College Dublin Maynooth Dublin 2 Ireland Ireland Rowan Fealy Joanne Fitzgerald Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units School of Agriculture, Food Science & Department of Geography Veterinary Medicine National University of Ireland University College Dublin Maynooth Dublin 4 Ireland Ireland Nicholas Holden Mike Jones School of Agriculture, Food Science & Centre for the Environment and Department of Botany Veterinary Medicine School of Natural Sciences University College Dublin Trinity College Dublin Dublin 4 Dublin 2 Ireland Ireland Conor Murphy Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units Department of Geography National University of Ireland Maynooth Ireland iii Table of Contents Acknowledgements ii Disclaimer ii Details of Project Partners iii Executive Summary xi 1 Global and Irish Trends in Climate 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Current Trends in Global Climate 1 1.3 Current Trends in Irish Climate 3 References 3 2 Climate Scenarios for Ireland 5 2.1 Introduction 5 2.2 Future Projections of Climate Change 6 2.3 Downscaling Global Climate Models 7 2.3.1 Regional climate models 8 2.3.2 Empirical statistical downscaling 8 2.3.3 Downscaled variables: temperature 12 2.3.4 Downscaled variables: precipitation 12 2.3.5 Downscaled variables: radiation and potential evapotranspiration 18 2.4 Results 21 2.4.1 Temperature 21 2.4.2 Precipitation 23 2.5 Ensembles 25 2.5.1 Temperature 25 2.5.2 Precipitation 27 2.6 Changes in Extremes of Temperature and Precipitation 30 Acknowledgements 35 References 35 Appendix 2.1 38 v 3 Climate Change and Water Resources 39 3.1 Introduction 39 3.2 Uncertainty in Future Hydrological Simulations 39 3.3 Research Outline 40 3.4 Rainfall Run-Off Model Overview and Application 41 3.4.1 HYSIM overview 41 3.4.2 Deriving physical parameters 43 3.4.3 Process parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification 44 3.5 Future Simulations 46 3.5.1 Changes in catchment storage 46 3.5.2 Changes in monthly streamflow 53 3.5.3 Changes in the variability of streamflow 60 3.5.4 Changes in selected flow percentiles 61 3.6 Flood Frequency Analysis 63 3.6.1 Changes in flood magnitude 64 3.6.2 Changes in flood frequency 68 3.7 Key Future Impacts and Vulnerabilities 69 3.7.1 Catchment storage 69 3.7.2 Changes in streamflow 70 3.7.3 Changes in flood characteristics 71 3.7.4 Water resources management 72 3.8 Conclusions 74 3.9 Adaptation 74 3.9.1 The role of technology 75 3.9.2 Integrated assessment and decision making 75 3.9.3 Decision making in the face of uncertainty 76 References 76 Appendix 3.1 78 Appendix 3.2 81 4 Impact of Climate Change on Irish Agricultural Production Systems 82 4.1 Introduction 82 vi 4.1.1 Background 82 4.1.2 The approach taken 83 4.1.3 The selection of sites for impact and adaptation assessment 83 4.2 The Focus on Dairy Production 85 4.2.1 Irish dairy production 86 4.3 Interactions between Nitrogen and Water Management for Two Example Arable Crops 87 4.3.1 Non-irrigated nitrogen response curves 89 4.3.2 Irrigation response 89 4.3.3 Management changes with climate change 94 4.3.4 Conclusions 95 4.4 Dairy System Simulation 95 4.4.1 Background 95 4.4.2 Management control 95 4.4.3 Parameterisation, testing and sensitivity analysis 97 4.4.4 Analysis of regional management variations 99 4.4.5 Conclusions about the usefulness of Dairy_sim for climate change evaluation 100 4.5 Integration of CO2 and Soil Effects into the System Simulation 100 4.5.1 CO2 effects on grass growth 100 4.5.2 The soil model 102 4.5.3 Impact of soil type within Dairy_sim: sensitivity to climate scenario and influence of soil type on duration of growth limitation and trafficability 104 4.5.4 Calibration of the poorly drained soil system simulation 107 4.6 Uncertainty Associated with Climate Scenario Data Driving the System Simulation 108 4.6.1 System differences as a result of climate model input for baseline period (no soil effect) 109 4.6.2 Uncertainty associated with system differences predicted to occur by 2050 (no soil effect) 110 4.6.3 Uncertainty associated with system differences linked to the soil effect 111 4.7 Adaptation of Strategic and Tactical Management of Dairy Systems in Response to Climate Change 112 4.7.1 Background 112 4.7.2 System basics – strategic and tactical management 113 4.7.3 Response to climate change by intensification or extensification 114 vii 4.7.4 Maintaining baseline production (herd size) on well-drained soil 114 4.7.5 Holding baseline production (herd size) on poorly drained soil 116 4.7.6 System intensification with climate change on well-drained soil 117 4.7.7 System intensification with climate change on poorly drained soil 118 4.7.8 Climate change and the seasonal distribution of grass supply for grazing 118 4.7.9 Replacement of conserved grass forage with maize forage 120 4.8 Environmental Issues 120 4.8.1 Productivity and animal manures 120 4.8.2 Grass production and herd size 121 4.8.3 Grass production vs herd size vs silage balance vs slurry surplus 122 4.8.4 Water deficit and water surplus 123 4.8.5 Estimates of potential changes in animal disease prevalence 124 4.8.6 Some observations on changes in thermal stress to animals 125 4.9 Concluding Observations 125 4.9.1 Spatial issues for system adaptation 125 4.9.2 Nitrogen and water balance for crops 127 4.9.3 Dairy_sim as a system simulation tool for evaluating climate change impacts and adaptations 127 4.9.4 Climate change impact on dairy production and system adaptations 128 References 128 5 The Impact of Climate Change on Semi-Natural Ecosystems in Ireland 132 5.1 Introduction 132 5.2 Impact of Climate Change on Phenology 133 5.2.1 Inventory of phenological data sets in Ireland 133 5.2.2 Analysis of long-term phenological records 134 5.2.3 Methodology 135 5.2.4 Results 135 5.3 Identifying Environmental Triggers of Tree Phenophases 140 5.3.1 Methodology 140 5.3.2 Results 142 viii 5.4 Impact of Climate Change on Semi-Natural Habitats 146 5.4.1 Introduction 146 5.4.2 Impact on peatlands and turloughs 146 5.4.3 Methodology 148 5.4.4 Future distribution of peatlands and turloughs in Ireland 150 5.4.5 Implications for future distribution of peatlands and turloughs 155 References 156 6 Conclusions: Key Vulnerabilities and Risks 160 6.1 Introduction 160 6.2 Future Climate Scenarios 160 6.3 Vulnerabilities in Water Resource Management 161 6.4 Vulnerabilities in Agriculture 162 6.5 Vulnerabilities in Natural Ecosystems 162 6.6 Bridging the Gap 163 References 163 ix Executive Summary 1 International Context With temperature projections of this kind, a high degree of confidence exists.
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