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Lotte Chilsung (005300 KS) Robust Sales of Soju, Beer, and Chilsung Cider

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Lotte Chilsung (005300 KS) Robust Sales of Soju, Beer, and Chilsung Cider Lotte Chilsung (005300 KS) Robust sales of soju, beer, and Chilsung Cider Food & Beverage 3Q15 preview We estimate Lotte Chilsung ’s 3Q revenue and operating profit increased 2.7% and Earnings Preview 49.9% YoY (excluding Lotte Asahi’s earnings), respectively. Our 3Q operating profit forecast of W51.3bn is above the market consensus. October 28, 2015 Revenue likely increased in soft drinks (Chilsung Cider/Pepsi Cola) , coffee drinks, bottled water (Icis), sparking water (Trevi), soju (Chum Churum/Soonhari), and beer (Kloud), while revenue likely declined in juice, energy drinks, cheongju (traditional liquor), gwasilju (fruit- (Maintain) Buy based liquor), and exports (Japan). Operating profit growth was likely driven by 1) stronger beverage sales thanks to favorable weather conditions in July-September, and 2) lower Target Price (12M, W) 3,100,000 beverage production costs (sugar, cans, PET bottles, oranges, and grapes). We believe 3Q domestic soju revenue grew 7% YoY, or a much stronger 20% when Share Price (10/28/15, W) 2,263,000 including the fruit-infused soju Soonhari. The company’s soju market share in the Seoul capital area likely expanded 2%p YoY to over 30%. We estimate 3Q beer revenue at Expected Return 37% W28bn (70% for households, 30% for businesses). 2016 outlook OP (15F, Wbn) 148 For 2016, we believe investors should keep a close eye on 1) soju, 2) beer, 3) production Consensus OP (15F, Wbn) 151 costs, and 4) overseas operations. For soju, the company’s W90bn capacity expansion (from 600mn bottles to 900mn bottles) was completed this month . As such, EPS Growth (15F, %) 515.5 competition with HiteJinro and Muhak should heat up. By production volume, Lotte Market EPS Growth (15F, %) 20.6 Chilsung currently holds a 17% domestic market share , but this should rise to 25% in P/E (15F, x) 26.7 2016. That said, the company is likely to increase marketi ng spending for market share Market P/E (15F, x) 11.9 expansion in 2016. Overall, we expect the soju business (domestic sales and exports) to KOSPI 2,042.51 grow 15% in 2015 and 10% in 2016. Market Cap (Wbn) 2,800 We forecast beer revenue to expand to W100bn in 2015 and W140bn in 2016 (from W44bn in 2014). As for o perating profit, we expect a breakeven in 2016, following Shares Outstanding (mn) 1 operating losses of W40bn in 2014 and W20bn in 2015. The company plans to invest Free Float (%) 47.1 W600bn in 2016-17 to ramp up its brewery capacity from 100,000 kiloliters to 300,000 Foreign Ownership (%) 12.8 kiloliters. Beta (12M) 0.65 52-Week Low 1,461,000 As for production costs, stable oil prices and grain prices should keep costs from rising through 1H16. 52-Week High 2,753,000 Looking overseas, the company’s China business, which sells its own brands (rather than (%) 1M 6M 12M (%)(%) 1M1M 6M6M 12M12M the Pepsi brand), is likely to face limitations. However, we see potential growth in Pepsi- Absolute -2.7 -4.3 24.1 Cola Products Philippines (38.9% stake; equity-method; W600-700bn revenue; 5% OP Relative -7.4 0.7 17.0 margin) and Pepsi Myanmar (76.6% stake; 2015F revenue of W20bn; consolidated). 170 Lotte Chilsung KOSPI Maintain Buy and TP of W3,100,000 150 Despite bullish earnings prospects for 2H, Lotte Chilsung shares have fallen on group 130 governance issues. However, we believe the correction sparked by group-related worries 110 is largely overdone. The company is seeking long-term growth in soju, beer, and 90 sparkling and bottled water, while making steady profi ts on soft drinks. One key issue to watch is how the company will finance its beer capex. We maintain our Buy call and 70 10.14 2.15 6.15 10.15 target price of W3,100,000. Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/12 12/13 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue (Wbn) 2,199 2,216 2,264 2,304 2,394 2,485 [F&B/Tobacco] OP (Wbn) 150 172 102 148 158 167 Woon-mok Baek OP margin (%) 6.8 7.8 4.5 6.4 6.6 6.7 +822-768-4158 NP (Wbn) 83 101 19 115 87 98 [email protected] EPS (W) 61,201 74,438 13,763 84,708 64,455 72,091 ROE (%) 3.8 4.3 0.8 5.0 3.7 4.0 P/E (x) 24.8 20.5 107.9 26.7 35.1 31.4 P/B (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.2 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. October 28, 2015 Lotte Chilsung Earnings and forecasts Table 111.1. 3Q15 earnings preview (Wbn, %) 3Q15F Growth 3Q143Q143Q14 2Q152Q152Q15 KDB Daewoo Consensus YoYYoYYoY QoQQoQQoQ Revenue 633 604 650 655 2.7 7.6 Operating profit 34 48 51 50 49.9 7.4 Pretax profit 28 87 40 44 40.9 -54.5 Net profit 18 64 27 27 52.2 -57.5 OP margin 5.4 7.9 7.9 7.6 - - Net margin 2.8 10.7 4.2 4.1 - - Notes: W46bn profit from discontinued operations in 2Q15 Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Table 222.2. Quarterly and annual earnings 2020201520 151515 20202016F20 16F16F16F 2020201420 141414 20202015F20 15F15F15F 20202016F20 16F16F16F 1Q1Q1Q 2Q2Q2Q 3Q3Q3QF3Q FFF 4Q4Q4QF4Q FFF 1Q1Q1QF1Q FFF 2Q2Q2QF2Q FFF 3Q3Q3QF3Q FFF 4Q4Q4QF4Q FFF Annual Annual Annual Revenue 536 604 650 515 544 633 681 536 2,264 2,304 2,394 Operating profit 38 48 51 11 40 51 55 13 102 148 158 Pretax profit 33 87 40 1 34 42 45 3 42 161 124 Net profit 23 64 27 0 24 30 32 2 19 115 87 Revenue growth 2.3 -0.9 2.7 3.3 1.5 4.9 4.8 4.1 2.2 1.8 3.9 OP growth -5.3 45.9 49.9 TTB 6.0 6.5 6.7 16.8 -40.7 44.5 7.2 Pretax growth -3.3 320.1 40.9 TTB 2.2 -51.7 13.7 486.6 -71.6 278.5 -22.8 Net growth -4.9 469.6 52.2 TTB 4.3 -53.5 15.5 485.9 -81.5 515.5 -23.9 OP margin 7.0 7.9 7.9 2.2 7.3 8.0 8.0 2.5 4.5 6.4 6.6 Net margin 4.3 10.7 4.2 0.1 4.4 4.7 4.6 0.4 0.8 5.0 3.7 Notes: W46bn in profit from discontinued operations in 2Q15; TTB refers to “turn to black” Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Table 333.3... Earnings forecast revisions (Wbn, %) Previous RRReReeevisedvisedvisedvised % chg. NotesNotesNotes 20202015F20 15F15F15F 20202016F20 16F16F16F 20202015F20 15F15F15F 20202016F20 16F16F16F 20202015F20 15F15F15F 20202016F20 16F16F16F Revenue 2,401 2,501 2,304 2,394 -4.0 -4.3 - Reflects strong soft drink sales Operating profit 143 152 148 158 3.4 4.3 and W46bn profit from Pretax profit 107 123 161 124 50.1 0.8 discontinued operations in 2Q15 Net profit 74 85 115 87 55.4 2.9 OP margin 6.0 6.1 6.4 6.6 - - Net margin 3.1 3.4 5.0 3.7 - - Notes: W46bn in profit from discontinued operations in 2Q15 Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Figure 111.1. Growing soju market Figure 222.2. Lotte ChilsungChilsung’’’’ss soju revenue and growth trend (000kl) (%) (Wbn) (%) 130 Soju shipments (L) 18 500 Soju revenue (L) 16 YoY (R) YoY (R) 12 120 400 12 6 110 300 8 0 100 200 4 -6 90 -12 100 0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 12 13 14 15F 16F 17F Notes: Plain soju only Notes: Plain soju only Source: KOSTAT, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KOSTAT, KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2 October 28, 2015 Lotte Chilsung Figure 333.3. Soft drink ASP continues to grow Figure 444.4. Soft drink shipments trend (10=100) (%) (000tonnes) (%) 160 30 150 Soft drink CPI (L) 15 Soft drink shipments (L) YoY (R) YoY (R) 140 12 140 20 130 9 120 6 120 10 110 3 100 0 100 0 90 -3 80 -10 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: KOSTAT, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KOSTAT, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 555.5. Bottled water shipments trendtrendtrend Figure 666.6. FruitFruitFruit-Fruit ---infusedinfused beverage shipmentshipmentssss trendtrendtrend (000kl) (%) (000tonnes) Fruit-infused beverage shipments (L) (%) 300 Bottled water shipments (L) 40 100 YoY (R) 45 YoY (R) 30 30 250 20 80 10 15 200 60 0 0 -10 150 40 -15 -20 100 -30 20 -30 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: KOSTAT, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: KOSTAT, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Figure 777.7. Lotte ChilsungChilsung’’’’ss beer capacity and M/S trendtrendtrend Figure 888.8. Lotte ChilsungChilsung’’’’ss beer revenue and OP trendtrendtrend (000 kl) (%) (Wbn) (Wbn) 250 20 350 Beer capacity (L) 20 Revenue (L) M/S (R) Operating profit (R) 300 10 200 15 250 0 150 200 10 -10 150 100 -20 100 5 50 -30 50 0 0 0 -40 14 15F 16F 17F 18F 14 15F 16F 17F 18F Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research KDB Daewoo Securities Research 3 October 28, 2015 Lotte Chilsung Lotte Chilsung (005300 KS/Buy/TP: W3,100,000) Comprehensive Income Statement (Summarized) Statement of Financial Condition (Summarized) (Wbn) 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F (Wbn) 12/14 12/15F 12/16F 12/17F Revenue 22,,2266442,264 22,,3300442,304 22,,3399442,394 22,,4488552,485 Current Assets 883322832 884499849 880033803 777766776 Cost of Sales 11,,3300661,306 11,,3322551,325 11,,3377441,374 11,,4422331,423 Cash and Cash Equivalents 108 176 135 83 Gross Profit 995588958 997799979 11,,0022001,020 11,,0066221,062 AR & Other Receivables 244 196 204 212 SG&A Expenses 885566856 883322832 886622862 889955895 Inventories 262 270 282 292 Operating Profit (Adj) 110022102 114488148 115588158 116677167 Other Current Assets 218 207 182 189 Operating Profit 110022102 114488148 115588158 116677167 NNoonnNon-Non ---CurrentCurrent Assets 33,,2266883,268 33,,4466333,463 33,,7722993,729 33,,9966443,964 NNoonnNon-Non ---OperatingOperating Profit ---60-660060 ---34-334434 ---34-334434 ---26-226626 Investments
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