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Climate Vulnerability Assessment

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Climate Vulnerability Assessment Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Climate Vulnerability Climate Vulnerability Assessment MAKING FIJI CLIMATE RESILIENT CLIMATE FIJI MAKING Photo: Fijian Government PREPARED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF FIJI WITH THE SUPPORT OF ACP-EU Natural Disaster Risk Reducon Progra m An iniave of the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group, funded by the European Union and managed by GFDRR 2 Climate Vulnerability Assessment Photo: Alana Holmberg/World Bank. Alana Holmberg/World Photo: Foreword 10 Acknowledgements 14 Abbreviations 16 Executive Summary 18 Vulnerability in reality: Our home, our people 30 1. The Context: Fiji and Climate Change 40 2. The Objectives: Fiji’s Development Plan and Objectives 44 3. The Threats: Natural Hazards and Long-Term Climate Change 46 3.1 Fiji faces a high and increasing level of disaster risk 47 3.1.1 Past events demonstrate the high risk level in the country 47 3.1.2 Many natural hazards are expected to become more intense or more frequent 49 3.1.3 High asset risk is explained by large exposure and high vulnerability in various sectors 56 3.1.4 Despite the population’s resilience, the risk to livelihoods and well-being is high and natural hazards keep people in poverty 66 3.1.5 Managing hazards requires actions in multiple sectors to avoid unacceptable risk to development objectives 80 3.2 Climate change creates long-term threats to Fiji’s development plans 82 3.2.1 Sea-level rise will multiply coastal risks and threaten some settlements in the absence of major investment 82 3.2.2 Impacts on agriculture and food security threaten a vulnerable portion of the population 83 3.2.3 Health issues will change as a result of development and climate change 89 3.2.4 Tourism plays a critical role in Fiji’s economy and is subjected to multiple stressors 93 3 4. The Options: Five Major Intervention Areas to Adapt to Climate Change 96 4.1 There is a window of opportunity to ensure serviced land and housing in safe areas 100 4.1.1 Appropriate land-use planning is critical for safer urban development, and safe areas can be identified for future development 101 4.1.2 The residential land shortage should be addressed in a resilient and sustainable manner 104 4.1.3 Informal settlements should be upgraded, taking into account current and future risks, where security of tenure can be successfully negotiated with the landowner 104 4.2 Strengthened infrastructure will help to meet the needs of the Fiji economy and population 105 4.2.1 Large investments in flood risk management and coastal protection measures will be required 105 4.2.2 The transport sector has the largest investment needs for building the country’s resilience 107 4.2.3 Strengthening the resilience of the energy sector will require a range of critical investments 110 4.2.4 Water sector investments are needed to protect assets against natural hazards 113 4.2.5 Investments in health and education infrastructure are needed to strengthen existing assets and construct new, robust facilities 115 4.3 Support for agriculture and fisheries development should be smart for climate, the environment, and the economy, now and for the future 116 4.4 Conservation policies can protect assets and reduce adaptation costs 117 4.5 The government needs to build socioeconomic resilience, take care of the poor, and keep economic growth inclusive 118 4.5.1 Improving early warning effectiveness and preparedness will save lives and protect assets 118 4.5.2 Social protection can be further strengthened to make the population better able to cope with shocks, and insurance-based solutions can be explored 119 4.5.3 Improving the health care system is a development priority 122 4.5.4 Targeted gender interventions and specific measures to protect vulnerable populations can complement actions in different sectors 123 4 Climate Vulnerability Assessment MAKING FIJI CLIMATE RESILIENT 5. The Foundations: Evidence-Based Decision Making and Well-Managed Public Finances 124 5.1 Evidence-based decision-making for future resilience requires additional data collection and analytical work 125 5.1.1 Data collection and analytical work are the foundation for efficient action 125 5.1.2 Asset management systems could improve the efficiency of infrastructure maintenance, cut costs, and increase resilience 127 5.2 Development under climate change requires well-managed public finance and significant investment capacity 127 5.2.1 Various tools can be mobilized to manage economic shocks and contingent liabilities 128 5.2.2 Meeting infrastructure investment needs will require private sector participation and increased international financing 132 5.2.3 Climate finance could support Fiji’s adaptation and resilience efforts 133 6. Conclusions: The Need for Global Action 134 Appendix 1. List of Priority Interventions to Strengthen Resilience 136 Appendix 2. List of Contributors 156 References 160 Glossary 166 Executive Summary 5 Photo: Alana Holmberg/World Bank. Alana Holmberg/World Photo: 6 Climate Vulnerability Assessment TABLES ES.1: Effect of climate change on natural disasters’ impact on poverty 22 ES.2: Summary of identified sectoral needs over the next 10 years to strengthen resilience of Fiji 27 3.1: Direct impact of major disasters, 1970–2016 48 3.2: Estimated losses from tropical cyclones 50 3.3: Estimated losses from pluvial and fluvial floods 52 3.4: Monthly rainfall changes for the cyclone season in 2050 and 2100 relative to present day 53 3.5: Percentage increases in median flooded area at Tikina level relative to present-day baseline 53 3.6: Increase in asset losses from floods as a result of climate change 53 3.7: Transport-related economic losses from flood events 59 3.8: Percentage of assets flooded by a one-in-five-year flood event 60 3.9: Percentage of asset value located in the flood zones for the 5-year and 100-year return period flood and various flood depths 63 3.10: Support provided under Phase 1 of the Fiji government’s Help for Homes initiative for affected households, based on the losses they experienced 70 3.11: Changes to the Social protection system after Tropical Cyclone Winston 71 3.12: Scalability challenges for social protection programs 72 3.13: Impact of tropical cyclones and fluvial and pluvial losses on poverty 80 3.14: Magnified negative impact of natural disasters on poverty as a result of climate change 81 3.15: Expected impact of climate change on Fiji crops, livestock, and forestry 86 3.16: Expected impact of climate change on Fiji fisheries 87 3.17: Expected impacts of climate change on specific agricultural products 88 4.1: Summary of identified sectoral needs to strengthen resilience of Fiji over the next 10 years 100 5.1: Estimation of contingent liabilities of the government of Fiji, including tropical cyclones 129 7 FIGURES ES.1: Human settlement patterns in Fiji. 19 ES.2: Percentage of Fiji population who experienced shocks during the 12 months before the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) survey 2013–14. 21 ES.3: Critical road segments in Viti Levu. 26 1.1: Climate change affects natural hazards in Fiji as well as exposure, vulnerability, and socioeconomic resilience. 43 3.1: Percentage of Fiji population who experienced shocks during the 12 months before the HIES survey 2013–14. 49 3.2: Human settlement patterns in Fiji. 55 B3.1.1: Critical road segments in Viti Levu and Vanua Levu. 58 3.3: Types of water sources used for urban water systems. 61 3.4: FEA’s power infrastructure, as of December 31, 2016. 62 3.5: Health and education facilities in Fiji. These play a key role during and after disaster, either as shelter or to deliver health care. 64 3.6: The distribution of asset losses due to tropical cyclones and floods for Fiji. 65 3.7: Multiple coping mechanisms used by households in Fiji. 67 3.8: Percentage of the population who use the formal banking system in Fiji. 68 3.9: Increase in beneficiary numbers under the core social protection programs. 69 3.10: Government budget for social protection programs. 69 3.11: Percentage of top-up assistance spent on various items. 71 3.12: Impact of 100-year tropical cyclone event on Ba Province. 78 3.13: Effect of a 100-year tropical cyclone on the income distribution of the country. 78 3.14: Share of tourism in Fiji’s economy, in terms of GDP and employment. 92 3.15: Projected change in tourism revenue due to climate change by 2030. 94 4.1: Increase in fiscal spending related to resilience and climate change. 97 8 Climate Vulnerability Assessment MAKING FIJI CLIMATE RESILIENT B4.1.1: Digital elevation model data for Nadi. 5.1: An illustrative mix of instruments to manage 103 contingent risk in Fiji B4.2.1: Structures given priority in upgrading to increase130 the resilience of the road network in Vanua Levu and Viti Levu. 108 B4.8.1: Effect of different levels of disaster response on well-being losses in Ba Province after a 100-year tropical cyclone event. 121 B4.8.2: Financing needs from additional social expenditures at various return periods, to ensure either a response similar to the one following Winston or a wider and stronger response. 121 B5.1.1: Funding of government explicit contingent liability (loss to public assets and infrastructure). 131 BOXES 3.1: Transport infrastructure criticality analysis 58 3.2: Natural hazards and gender-based violence 75 3.3: The socioeconomic resilience model 76 3.4: Case study: Multiplier impacts of TC Winston (2016) on fisheries activities 85 4.1: Identifying safe areas and informing
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