South West Queensland Region

Photo: Tourism Queensland Tourism Photo: Climate change in the South West Queensland Region Rainfall Data Temperature Data This regional summary describes the projected climate change for the South West Queensland (SWQ) region. Projected average temperature, Murweh Quilpie Shire Charleville rainfall and evaporation for Shire Council Aero Council 2030, 2050 and 2070 under low, Paroo Shire medium and high greenhouse Bulloo Council Shire gas emissions scenarios are Council Thargomindah Cunnamulla Post Office Post Office compared with historical climate records. New South Wales SWQ_Map A regional profile Climate and landscape The SWQ region, one of the most remote areas in the state, has a semi-arid to arid climate, with summers being very hot while winters are generally warm and dry. Rainfall in the region is highly seasonal and irregular, with most rain falling during the summer (October–March) either as heavy Photo: Tourism Queensland Tourism Photo: thunderstorms or rain depressions. Key findings Demographics In 2007, the region’s population Temperature was 8 172, and is projected to • Average annual temperature in the SWQ region has increased decline marginally to around by 0.8 °C over the last decade (from 21.6 °C to 22.4 °C). 8 160 by 2026. (OESR, 2007; DIP, 2008) • Projections indicate an increase of up to 5.2 °C by 2070, leading to annual temperatures well beyond those experienced over the last 50 years. Important industries • By 2070, Charleville may have over twice the number of days of the region over 35 °C (increasing from an average of 64 per year, to 130 per Major economic activities include year by 2070) and Thargomindah may have more than 1.5 times oil, gas and gemstone (opal) the number of days over 35 °C (increasing from an average of extraction, beef, sheep and game 91 per year, to an average 147 per year by 2070). meat processing, small areas of wheat cropping, and irrigated crops Rainfall of dates, grapes and organic wheat • Average annual rainfall in the last decade fell nearly 16 per cent (Warrego River system). compared to the previous 30 years. This is generally consistent Approximately 30 per cent of the with natural variability experienced over the last 110 years, region’s population is employed which makes it difficult to detect any influence of climate in the agriculture, forestry and change at this stage. fishing industries. Pastoral • Models have projected a range of rainfall changes from an annual production contributes as much as increase of 20 per cent to a decrease of 38 per cent by 2070. $162 million per annum. The ‘best estimate’ of projected rainfall change shows a decrease under all emissions scenarios. Tourism and the retail trade are also major contributors to Evaporation employment in the rural centres. Possible future industries are • Projections indicate annual potential evaporation could increase based on natural gas export 3–15 per cent by 2070. and power generation. Extreme events Charleville (3 500) is the major • More intense and long-lived cyclones have a greater chance business and service hub for South of impacting on inland regions such as in SWQ, from the decay West Queensland. of cyclones into rain-bearing depressions, or the cyclones (Extracted from the Draft South themselves tracking further inland. West Queensland Regional Plan) SWQ2 ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland Understanding the climate and how it changes Queensland’s climate is naturally variable; however, climate change will lead to shifts beyond this natural variability. To assess the risk of human-induced climate change requires an understanding of the current climate using historical data and future climate scenarios. These future scenarios are prepared using data from Global Climate Models. Method Historical climate data Historical climate data collected by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) were aggregated across the SWQ region. The fluctuations and trends in the observed data are presented including extremes in temperature and the frequency of cyclones. Greenhouse emission scenarios The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. The IPCC assesses the latest scientific, technological and socio-economic literature on climate change. To estimate the potential impacts of future climate change on Queensland, climate change projections were developed using the IPCC low (B1), medium (A1B) and high (A1FI) greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The low-range scenario (B1) assumes a rapid shift to less fossil fuel intensive industries. The mid-range (A1B) scenario assumes a balanced use of different energy sources. The high (A1FI) scenario assumes continued dependence on fossil fuels. Greenhouse gas emissions are currently tracking above the highest IPCC emissions scenario (A1FI). The low and medium scenarios are presented to show the potential benefits of action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change projections Queensland climate change projections were produced by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) based on the results from 23 Global Climate Models. Projections were provided for 2030, 2050 and 2070. However, as the climate can vary significantly from one year to the next, these projections show changes in average climate for three future 30-year periods centered on 2030, 2050 and 2070. Current climate Temperature (BoM, 2008) Historical temperature records indicate the average temperature in the SWQ region has risen, with this increase accelerating over the last decade (1998–2007). The average annual temperature was 21.6 °C in the 30-year period from 1971–2000, which is a 0.1 °C increase on the 1961–1990 average. However, over the last decade it has risen Photo: Tourism Queensland Tourism Photo: by a further 0.8 °C, suggesting an accelerated rise in temperature. ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland SWQ3 The increase in annual maximum temperature Temperature extremes (BoM, 2008) is presented in Figure 1. The trend over time Extremes in temperature (such as a number of days is represented by the black line in each graph. exceeding 35 °C) are single events that usually do not The change in maximum temperatures is greater extend past a couple of days. Due to the influence in the autumn with the average over the last decade of regional topography and prevailing winds, location- increasing 1.3 °C, compared to the 1961–1990 average. specific data are required when considering changes in these extreme events over time. Average maximum temperature has risen in the South West Queensland region Historical temperature records for Charleville (Figure 2) suggest that there has been a very slight increase, since the late 1970s in the number of days each year 33 Annual 32 31 where the maximum temperature exceeds 35 °C. 30 29.6 29 28.5 No similar increase has been detected for 28 27 Thargomindah (Figure 3). 39 38 Summer 37 36.8 36 35.8 35 The number of days over 35˚C has risen slightly 34 33 in Charleville 32 32 31 Autumn 30 29 29.4 100 mperature (°C) 28 28.1 Te 27 90 26 25 80 70 25 Winter 24 Maximum Maximum 23 60 22 21.2 50 21 20.3 20 40 19 30 34 Spring 33 °C 35 > days of Number 20 32 31 30.9 10 30 29.9 0 29 28 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 27 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Year FIGURE RS_SWQ_2 FigureFIGURE 1: RS_SWQ_1 Historical annual and seasonal maximum Figure 2: Number of days where the temperature temperatures for the South West Queensland region exceeded 35 ˚C for Charleville for the period 1950–2007, compared to the base Blank spaces are those years where the maximum period 1961–1990 temperature did not exceed 35 ˚C. ‘X’ denotes year for which the full data set is not available The black line is a five-year running average. (i.e. the actual values may in fact be greater than what The mean for both the baseline of 1961–1990 and the last is shown). decade 1998–2007 are shown by the green lines and indicated numerically at the right of the graph. Data source: BoM, 2008 Note: vertical scales may differ between graphs Data source: BoM, 2008 Photo: Tourism Queensland SWQ4 ClimateQ: toward a greener Queensland There is no observable increase in the number Historical rainfall shows high variability of days over 35 ˚C in Thargomindah 800 120 Annual 600 352 100 400 322 (−8.8%) 200 80 Summer 60 400 200 137 40 121 (−11.7%) Number of days > 35 °C 35 > days of Number 0 20 300 Autumn 0 200 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 102 100 71 (−30.4%) Year tal rainfall (mm) rainfall tal 0 To 200 Winter FigureFIGURE 3: RS_SWQ_3 Number of days where the temperature 100 55 exceeded 35 ˚C for Thargomindah 53 (2.5%) Blank spaces are those years where the maximum 0 temperature did not exceed 35 ˚C. 200 Spring ‘X’ denotes year for which the full data set is not available 100 74 (i.e. the actual values may in fact be greater than what 61 (21.4%) is shown). 0 Data source: BoM, 2008 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Rainfall (BoM, 2008) FIGURE RS_SWQ_4 Annual and seasonal average rainfall is strongly Figure 4: Historical annual and seasonal total influenced by natural variability, local factors such rainfall for the South West Queensland region for as topography and vegetation, and broader scale the period 1897–2007 weather patterns, for example El Niño-Southern The black line is a five year running average. Oscillation (ENSO) events. To understand how this The mean for both the baseline 1961–1990 and the last natural temporal variation changes rainfall patterns, decade 1998–2007 are shown by the green lines and long-term rainfall records are required.

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