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Realigning Elections What Happens in a Realigning Election?

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Realigning Elections What Happens in a Realigning Election? 3/30/2020 PARTY SYSTEMS IN THE UNITED STATES Federalists vs. Jeffersonians (Democratic- 1800-1824 Republicans) 1828-1856 Democrats vs. Whigs Republicans vs. Democrats (Republican 1860-1896 Dominance) Republicans vs. Democrats (Republican 1896-1932 Dominance) (new coalition) Democrats vs. Republicans (Democratic 1932-1980 Dominance) (New Deal Coalition) 1980-present Divided Government Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 144 144 Realigning Elections Year Candidates Precipitating Event 1800 Thomas Jefferson (D-R) Economics Aaron Burr (D-R) 1828 Andrew Jackson (D-R) Tariffs, sectionalism John Quincy Adams (D-R) 1860 Abraham Lincoln (R) Slavery, states rights vs. nationalism Stephen A. Douglas (D) 1896 William McKinley (R) Economic Panic 1893 William Jennings Bryan (D) 1932 Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) Great Depression Herbert Hoover (R) 1980 Ronald Reagan (R) Economics, Civil Rights Jimmy Carter (D) Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 145 145 What Happens in a Realigning Election? 1. A new powerful and divisive issue disrupts the existing political order. 2. Voters shift their support strongly in favor of one party 3. The newly strong party brings about major policy change. 4. The party coalitions shift, giving long-term advantage to the newly dominant party Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 146 146 1 3/30/2020 Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 147 147 First Party System 1800-1824 Federalists Democratic-Republicans • Strong Central Government • States rights • Loose Constructionists • Strict Constructionists • Banking, Manufacturing • Agricultural • Order and “good • Individual liberties, popular government” democracy • New England • South and Mid-Atlantic • Hamilton, Adams, Marshall • Jefferson, Madison, Gallatin • Appealed to elites • Appealed to a broader Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 popular base 148 148 Federalist poster about 1800. Washington (in heaven) tells partisans to keep the pillars of Federalism, Republicanism Karenand McPherson Democracy Osher Institute Spring 2020 149 149 2 3/30/2020 Realigning Election – 1828 1824 1828 Blue denotes states won by Jackson, Blue denotes states won by orange denotes those won by Crawford, Jackson. Light Yellow denotes green denotes those won by Adams, denotes those won by Adams. yellow denotes those won by Clay Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 150 150 2nd Party System 1828-60 Nat’l Republicans (Whigs) Democrats • “American System” • States rights, Low Tariffs • Split on Slavery • Slave Power • Internal Development • Westward Expansion • Powerful Congress • Powerful Presidency • Modernity • Tradition • Clay, Webster • Jackson, Polk • Appealed to modernizers, • Appealed to yeoman businessmen, bankers, farmers, planters, workers, Karen McPhersonProtestant Osher Institute SpringEvangelicals 2020 immigrants, Catholics 151 151 Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 152 152 3 3/30/2020 Realigning Election – 1860 1856 1860 Blue denotes states won by Buchanan, Blue denotes states won by Douglas, Red denotes those won by Fremont, Red denotes those won by Lincoln, Lilac denotes those won by Fillmore green denotes those won by Breckenridge, orange denotes those won by Bell Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 153 153 3rd Party System 1860-1896 Republicans Democrats • National Economic Policies • Laissez-Faire Policies • Hard Money (gold standard) • Silver, Greenbacks • Protective Tariffs • Low Tariffs • Northeast • Solid South • Appealed to businessmen, • Appealed to small farmers, industrialists, blacks unskilled labor, immigrants Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 154 154 Realigning Election – 1896 1892 1896 Red denotes states won by Harrison, Red denotes states won by McKinley, blue denotes those won by Cleveland, blue denotes those won by Bryan green denotes those won by Weaver Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 155 155 4 3/30/2020 4th Party System 1896-1932 Republicans Democrats • Big Business • Populist and Progressive • Imperialism • Anti-Imperialist • McKinley, T. Roosevelt, • Wilson, William Jennings Coolidge, Hoover Bryan • Appealed to businessmen, • Appealed to western corporations farmers, immigrants, Catholics, urban voters • Supported Prohibition • Mixed on Prohibition Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 156 156 Realigning Election – 1932 1928 1932 Red denotes states won by Hoover, Red denotes states won by Hoover, blue denotes those won by Smith blue denotes those won by Roosevelt Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 157 157 5th Party System 1932-1980 Republicans Democrats • Economic conservatism – • Keynesian economics laissez-faire • Strict Constructionists • Loose Constructionists • Military, “Hawks” • Diplomacy, “Doves” • Northeast, Midwest • South • Goldwater, Eisenhower, • Roosevelt, Truman, Rockefeller, Nixon Kennedy, Johnson • Appealed to elites and • Appealed to “New Deal business interests Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 Coalition,” academics 158 158 5 3/30/2020 • Democrats Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 159 159 Realigning Election – 1980 1976 1980 Blue denotes states won by Blue denotes states won by Carter, red denotes those won by Carter, red denotes those won by Ford Reagan Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 160 160 6th Party System 1980-now Republicans Democrats • Devolution • Stronger central gov’t • Supply-side economics • Keynesian economics • American exceptionalism • Multinationalism • Midwest, Mountain, and • Northeast, Pacific coast, Southeast/Bible Belt urban centers • Reagan, Bush I and II • Clinton, Obama • Appealed to affluent voters, • Appealed to urbanites, corporations, social minorities, professionals, conservatives, blue collar social liberals Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 161 161 6 3/30/2020 “Third” Parties in America • A “third” party has never really gained traction in American political history Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 162 162 “Third” Parties in America • “Third parties are like bees – they sting and then they die” –Historian Richard Hofstadter Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 163 163 • “Major parties have lived more for patronage than for principles; their goal has been to bind together a sufficiently large coalition of diverse interests to get into power; and once in power, to arrange sufficiently satisfactory compromises of interests to remain there. Minor parties have been attached to some special idea or interest, and they have generally expressed their positions through firm and identifiable programs and principles. Their function has not been to win or govern, but to agitate, educate, generate new ideas, and supply the dynamic element in our political life. When a third party's demands become popular enough, they are appropriated by one or both of the major parties and the third party disappears. Third parties are like bees: once they have stung, they die.” Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 • Richard Hofstadter, American Historian » R 164 164 7 3/30/2020 Populism swallows the democratic party Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 165 165 Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 166 166 Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 167 167 8 3/30/2020 Impact Of State Ballot Access Rules Total state affiliates for each political party, May 2018 Political Party Number of States Republican Party 51 Democratic Party 51 Libertarian Party 39 Green Party 27 Constitution Party 15 Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 168 168 Types of Third Parties • Ideological – profess a radically “different” view of American society –Socialist, Socialist Labor, Socialist Workers, Communist Parties (1900-present, generally) –Libertarian Party (1972-present) –Green Party (1984-present) Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 169 169 Types of Third Parties • One-Issue –Free Soil Party – 1850s –American (or Know-Nothing) Party – 1850s –Prohibition Party (1869-present) –Woman’s party – (1913-1920) • Tend to go away when the issue is resolved Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 170 170 9 3/30/2020 Types of Third Parties • Economic Protest Parties –Greenback Party (1876-1884) –Populist Party (1892-1908) • Tend to get absorbed into one of the major parties Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 171 171 Types of Third Parties • Factional Parties (split from major parties) –Split from the Republican Party • “Bull Moose” Progressive Party (1912) • LaFollette Progressive Party (1924) Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 172 172 Types of Third Parties • Factional Parties (split from major parties –Split off from the Democratic Party • States Rights Party (Dixiecrats) – 1948 • Henry Wallace Progressive Party – 1948 • American Independent Party (George Wallace) – 1968 Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 173 173 10 3/30/2020 Types of Third Parties • Factional Parties (split from major parties) –Split off from the Both Parties • Reform Party (Ross Perot) – 1992 Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 174 174 2000 Presidential Election Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 175 175 Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 176 176 11 3/30/2020 2016 Presidential Election Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 177 177 Future of American Parties • Is it time for another realignment? • What is the future of our existing party system? –People are generally unhappy with our existing party system Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 178 178 Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 179 179 12 3/30/2020 Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 180 180 Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 181 181 Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 182 182 13 3/30/2020 Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 183 183 Future of American Parties • Is it time for another realignment? • What is the future of our existing party system? – People are generally unhappy with our existing party system – We are unlikely to make fundamental change to our political system, so a third party is not the answer – We need to address campaign finance • The party that figures out how to appeal to women, minorities, and young people will be successful over the next 20 years. Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 184 184 14.
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