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Realigning Elections What Happens in a Realigning Election?

Realigning Elections What Happens in a Realigning Election?

3/30/2020

PARTY SYSTEMS IN THE

Federalists vs. Jeffersonians (Democratic- 1800-1824 Republicans) 1828-1856 Democrats vs. Whigs Republicans vs. Democrats (Republican 1860-1896 Dominance) Republicans vs. Democrats (Republican 1896-1932 Dominance) (new coalition) Democrats vs. Republicans (Democratic 1932-1980 Dominance) ( Coalition) 1980-present Divided Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 144 144

Realigning

Year Candidates Precipitating Event 1800 (D-R) Economics (D-R) 1828 (D-R) Tariffs, sectionalism (D-R) 1860 (R) Slavery, states rights vs. Stephen A. Douglas (D) 1896 William McKinley (R) Economic Panic 1893 (D) 1932 Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) (R) 1980 (R) Economics, Civil Rights (D)

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What Happens in a Realigning ? 1. A new powerful and divisive issue disrupts the existing political order. 2. Voters shift their support strongly in favor of one party 3. The newly strong party brings about major change. 4. The party coalitions shift, giving long-term advantage to the newly dominant party

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First 1800-1824 Democratic-Republicans • Strong Central Government • States rights • Loose Constructionists • Strict Constructionists • Banking, Manufacturing • Agricultural • Order and “good • Individual , popular government” • New England • South and Mid-Atlantic • , Adams, Marshall • Jefferson, Madison, Gallatin • Appealed to elites • Appealed to a broader

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Federalist poster about 1800. (in heaven) tells partisans to keep the pillars of , Karenand McPherson Democracy Osher Institute Spring 2020 149 149

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Realigning Election – 1828 1824 1828

Blue denotes states won by Jackson, denotes states won by orange denotes those won by Crawford, Jackson. Light Yellow denotes green denotes those won by Adams, denotes those won by Adams. yellow denotes those won by Clay

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2nd Party System 1828-60 Nat’l Republicans (Whigs) Democrats • “American System” • States rights, Low Tariffs • Split on Slavery • • Internal Development • Westward Expansion • Powerful Congress • Powerful Presidency • Modernity • Tradition • Clay, Webster • Jackson, Polk • Appealed to modernizers, • Appealed to yeoman businessmen, bankers, farmers, planters, workers,

Karen McPhersonProtestant Osher Institute SpringEvangelicals 2020 immigrants, Catholics 151

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Realigning Election – 1860

1856 1860

Blue denotes states won by Buchanan, Blue denotes states won by Douglas, denotes those won by Fremont, Red denotes those won by Lincoln, Lilac denotes those won by Fillmore green denotes those won by Breckenridge, orange denotes those won by Bell

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3rd Party System 1860-1896 Republicans Democrats • National Economic • Laissez-Faire Policies • Hard Money () • Silver, Greenbacks • Protective Tariffs • Low Tariffs • Northeast • • Appealed to businessmen, • Appealed to small farmers, industrialists, blacks unskilled labor, immigrants

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Realigning Election – 1896

1892 1896

Red denotes states won by Harrison, Red denotes states won by McKinley, blue denotes those won by , blue denotes those won by Bryan green denotes those won by Weaver

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4th Party System 1896-1932 Republicans Democrats • Big Business • Populist and Progressive • • Anti-Imperialist • McKinley, T. Roosevelt, • Wilson, William Jennings Coolidge, Hoover Bryan • Appealed to businessmen, • Appealed to western corporations farmers, immigrants, Catholics, urban voters • Supported • Mixed on Prohibition

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Realigning Election – 1932

1928 1932

Red denotes states won by Hoover, Red denotes states won by Hoover, blue denotes those won by Smith blue denotes those won by Roosevelt

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5th Party System 1932-1980 Republicans Democrats • Economic – • laissez-faire • Strict Constructionists • Loose Constructionists • Military, “Hawks” • Diplomacy, “Doves” • Northeast, Midwest • South • Goldwater, Eisenhower, • Roosevelt, Truman, Rockefeller, Nixon Kennedy, Johnson • Appealed to elites and • Appealed to “New Deal business interests Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 Coalition,” academics 158

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• Democrats

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Realigning Election – 1980

1976 1980

Blue denotes states won by Blue denotes states won by Carter, red denotes those won by Carter, red denotes those won by Ford Reagan

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6th Party System 1980-now Republicans Democrats • Devolution • Stronger central gov’t • Supply-side economics • Keynesian economics • American exceptionalism • Multinationalism • Midwest, Mountain, and • Northeast, Pacific coast, Southeast/Bible Belt urban centers • Reagan, Bush I and II • Clinton, Obama • Appealed to affluent voters, • Appealed to urbanites, corporations, social minorities, professionals, conservatives, blue collar social liberals Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 161

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“Third” Parties in America

• A “third” party has never really gained traction in American

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“Third” Parties in America

• “Third parties are like bees – they sting and then they die” –Historian

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• “Major parties have lived more for patronage than for principles; their goal has been to bind together a sufficiently large coalition of diverse interests to get into power; and once in power, to arrange sufficiently satisfactory compromises of interests to remain there. Minor parties have been attached to some special idea or interest, and they have generally expressed their positions through firm and identifiable programs and principles. Their function has not been to win or govern, but to agitate, educate, generate new ideas, and supply the dynamic element in our political life. When a third party's demands become popular enough, they are appropriated by one or both of the major parties and the third party disappears. Third parties are like bees: once they have stung, they die.” Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 • Richard Hofstadter, American Historian

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Populism swallows the

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Impact Of State Ballot Access Rules

Total state affiliates for each , May 2018 Political Party Number of States Republican Party 51 Democratic Party 51 Libertarian Party 39 Green Party 27 Constitution Party 15

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Types of Third Parties • Ideological – profess a radically “different” view of American society –Socialist, Socialist Labor, Socialist Workers, Communist Parties (1900-present, generally) –Libertarian Party (1972-present) –Green Party (1984-present)

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Types of Third Parties • One-Issue – – 1850s –American (or Know-Nothing) Party – 1850s – (1869-present) –Woman’s party – (1913-1920) • Tend to go away when the issue is resolved

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Types of Third Parties • Economic Protest Parties – (1876-1884) –Populist Party (1892-1908) • Tend to get absorbed into one of the major parties

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Types of Third Parties • Factional Parties (split from major parties) –Split from the Republican Party • “Bull Moose” Progressive Party (1912) • LaFollette Progressive Party (1924)

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Types of Third Parties • Factional Parties (split from major parties –Split off from the Democratic Party • States Rights Party () – 1948 • Henry Wallace Progressive Party – 1948 • American Independent Party () – 1968

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Types of Third Parties • Factional Parties (split from major parties) –Split off from the Both Parties • Reform Party () – 1992

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2000 Presidential Election

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2016 Presidential Election

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Future of American Parties • Is it time for another realignment? • What is the future of our existing party system? –People are generally unhappy with our existing party system

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Future of American Parties • Is it time for another realignment? • What is the future of our existing party system? – People are generally unhappy with our existing party system – We are unlikely to make fundamental change to our , so a third party is not the answer – We need to address campaign finance • The party that figures out how to appeal to women, minorities, and young people will be successful over the next 20 years. Karen McPherson Osher Institute Spring 2020 184 184

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