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Automobiles Two Wheelers – Motorcycle Segment Stages a Comeback

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Automobiles Two Wheelers – Motorcycle Segment Stages a Comeback Automobiles Two Wheelers – Motorcycle segment stages a comeback November 16, 2012 Scooter segment accounted for 21.7% of the two‐wheeler market in Oct’12: Led by new launches from Honda (Dio), Hero (Maestro), TVS (Pep+) and Suzuki Surjit Arora (Swish), the scooter segment grew at a faster clip of 32.4%YoY in the month of [email protected] Oct’12 as against the 6.7% YoY growth in the motorcycle segment. For April- +91-22-66322235 Oct’12, the scooter segment registered a growth of 22.3%, with an estimated growth of 16.7% for FY13E. The faster volume growth of the scooter segment Update lead to a 300bps improvement in its share to 21.0% of the two-wheeler market for YTD FY13E. The main drivers for this growth are (a) growing acceptability of gearless scooters, particularly by women, (b) rising urbanization and increasing Sensex v/s. Hero Motocorp & Bajaj Auto proportion of working women, (c) comparatively lower base and (d) new Sector Sensex Hero Motocorp launches. We expect 14-15% CAGR in scooter volumes for the next three years. Bajaj Auto 120 Motorcycle segment stages a comeback with a 6.7% YoY growth in Oct’12: In 115 the last couple of months, three new bikes have been launched in this segment 110 105 – Suzuki’s 110cc ‘Hayate’, Honda’s 110cc ‘Dream Yuga’ and the most recent 100 Hero’s 125cc ‘Ignitor’. While ‘Hayate’ marks Suzuki's maiden entry into the mass 95 90 segment, with ‘Dream Yuga’, Honda now has a second offering in the mass 85 commuter segment, a product having austere looks and styling. For the month 80 of Oct’12, motorcycle segment grew by 6.7% YoY despite flattish volumes by Jul-12 Hero Motocorp (HMCL). This was mainly on account of 69.4% YoY growth Jan-12 Sep-12 Nov-11 Nov-12 Mar-12 May-12 registered by HMSI. For April-Oct’12, the segment reported flattish numbers, Source: Bloomberg with an estimated growth of 4.0% for FY13E led by the new launches. Honda Motorcycle and Scooter India (HMSI) gains 440bps market share in the Stock Performance motorcycle segment: In the motorcycles segment, HMSI is banking on the (%) 1M 6M 12M success of its newly launched 110cc bike ‘Dream Yuga’ with a target of 3.0m Sensex (0.6) 15.2 10.1 units in FY13E, thereby, translating into an incremental volumes of Auto 4.0 11.3 20.0 25,000/month. HMSI reported a growth of 69.4% YoY to 111,235 units, as against a 6.7% YoY growth in the motorcycle segment in Oct’12. As a result, it Bajaj Auto 4.8 13.7 6.4 gained market share to the tune of 440bps to 11.9%. For YTD FY13E, HMSI’s Hero Motocorp 2.3 (2.4) (12.6) market share improved by 450bps to 11.5%, whereas HMCL lost market share to the tune of 240bps to 52.8%. Stock Data HMCL gains 460bps in scooter segment market share: Led by the success of CMP (Rs) TP (Rs) PE (x) recently launched ‘Maestro’, HMCL reported a growth of 71.7% YoY to 56,039 FY13E FY14E units, as against a 32.4% YoY growth in the scooter segment in Oct’12. As a Bajaj Auto 1,836 1,916 17.1 14.5 result, it gained market share to the tune of 460bps to 20.1%. For YTD FY13E, Hero Honda 1,840 1,768 16.2 14.6 HMCL’s market share improved by 100bps to 17.2%, whereas HMSI maintained its lead with a 470bps gain in market share to 49.8% (led by New ‘Activa’) How we differ from Consensus Upside in stock price capped; Prefer Bajaj Auto over Hero Motocorp (HMCL): EPS (Rs) PL Cons. % Diff. We believe Bajaj Auto is likely to outperform HMCL in the near-to-medium Bajaj Auto term. With exports, three-wheeler and spares (higher margin business) 2013 107.6 110.6 ‐2.7 2014 126.7 129.8 ‐2.4 accounting for ~50% of its FY14E turnover, we believe Bajaj Auto’s margins are set to improve. With earnings CAGR of 9.0% as against 6.5% for HMCL for FY12- Hero Motocorp FY14E period, we believe the valuations at 14.5x FY14E EPS for Bajaj Auto seems 2013 113.9 117.6 ‐3.2 attractive as against similar valuation for HMCL. Maintain ‘Accumulate’ on Bajaj 2014 126.3 129.1 ‐2.2 Auto and ‘Reduce’ on HMCL. Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report Automobiles Exhibit 1: Two‐ Wheeler sector snapshot Avg. Domestic Monthly Sales Key New Launches Scooter (FY13E) Motorcycle (FY13E) Share in Market Share Share in Market Share Scooters Motorcycles Scooters Motorcycles portfolio (%) (%) portfolio (%) (%) 110cc Passion 110cc - Hero Motocorp 36,253 480,912 X Pro 125cc - 8.5% 17.6% 91.5% 53.7% Maestro Ignitor Discover 125 Bajaj Auto NA 204,756 NA ST Pulsar NA NA 65.0% 24.2% 200 NS Honda Motorcycles & 110cc Dio 110cc Dream 121,690 90,752 54.5% 50.9% 45.5% 11.8% Scooters India 110cc Activa Yuga 100cc TVS 125cc new TVS Motor 36,512 44,719 27.6% 15.8% 31.1% 5.2% Qube Bike Source: Company Data, PL Research New Launches Scooter Hero’s ‘Maestro’ Honda’s ‘Dio’ Suzuki’s ‘Swish’ Motorcycles Hero’s ‘Ignitor’ Honda’s ‘Dream Yuga’ Bajaj’s 125 ST ‘Discover’ November 16, 2012 2 Automobiles Exhibit 2: Domestic Scooter Segment – Market Share Companies Oct’11 Oct’12 Apr‐Oct’11 Apr‐Oct’12 Hero MotoCorp Ltd 32,638 56,039 225,199 293,225 YoY gr. (%) 71.7 30.2 MS (%) 15.5 20.1 16.2 17.2 Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India (Pvt) Ltd 106,154 124,827 627,025 847,925 YoY gr. (%) 17.6 35.2 MS (%) 50.3 44.7 45.1 49.8 Mahindra Two Wheelers Ltd 17,933 11,139 92,168 69,827 YoY gr. (%) (37.9) (24.2) MS (%) 8.5 4.0 6.6 4.1 Suzuki Motorcycle India Pvt Ltd 9,793 27,354 144,996 191,375 YoY gr. (%) 179.3 32.0 MS (%) 4.6 9.8 10.4 11.2 TVS Motor Company Ltd 44,550 43,066 302,170 265,652 YoY gr. (%) (3.3) (12.1) MS (%) 21.1 15.4 21.7 15.6 Total 211,068 279,427 1,391,558 1,701,474 YoY gr. (%) 32.4 22.3 Source: SIAM, PL Research November 16, 2012 3 Automobiles Exhibit 3: Domestic Motorcycle Segment ‐ Market Share Companies Oct’11 Oct’12 Apr‐Oct’11 Apr‐Oct’12 Bajaj Auto Ltd 244,503 261,771 1,552,349 1,482,136 YoY gr. (%) 7.1 (4.5) MS (%) 27.9 28.0 26.4 25.1 Hero MotoCorp Ltd 461,563 459,203 3,248,023 3,116,266 YoY gr. (%) (0.5) (4.1) MS (%) 52.6 49.1 55.2 52.8 Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India (Pvt) Ltd 65,660 111,235 411,992 678,523 YoY gr. (%) 69.4 64.7 MS (%) 7.5 11.9 7.0 11.5 India Yamaha Motor Pvt Ltd 38,229 27,119 210,856 186,844 YoY gr. (%) (29.1) (11.4) MS (%) 4.4 2.9 3.6 3.2 Royal Enfield (Unit of Eicher Ltd) 6,793 10,247 43,929 65,892 YoY gr. (%) 50.8 50.0 MS (%) 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.1 Suzuki Motorcycle India Pvt Ltd 1,463 8,851 30,709 51,468 YoY gr. (%) 505.0 67.6 MS (%) 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.9 TVS Motor Company Ltd 58,959 57,607 389,629 324,955 YoY gr. (%) (2.3) (16.6) MS (%) 6.7 6.2 6.6 5.5 Total 877,270 936,122 5,887,587 5,906,712 YoY gr. (%) 6.7 0.3 Source: SIAM, PL Research November 16, 2012 4 Bajaj Auto – Accumulate – CMP: Rs1,836 – TP: Rs1,916 Automobiles Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m) Y/e March 2011 2012 2013E 2014E Y/e March 2011 2012 2013E 2014E Net Revenue 163,982 195,290 207,254 235,617 Shareholder's Funds 49,102 60,411 74,749 93,168 Raw Material Expenses 117,975 141,027 146,721 165,625 Total Debt 3,252 975 975 975 Gross Profit 46,007 54,263 60,533 69,992 Other Liabilities 297 484 484 484 Employee Cost 4,936 5,446 5,944 6,513 Total Liabilities 52,651 61,870 76,208 94,627 Other Expenses 9,359 11,663 13,100 14,673 Net Fixed Assets 15,483 14,913 15,480 15,493 EBITDA 31,713 37,154 41,489 48,806 Goodwill — — — — Depr. & Amortization 1,228 1,456 1,551 1,605 Investments 47,952 48,828 51,828 54,828 Net Interest 17 222 50 50 Net Current Assets (10,827) (2,192) 8,579 23,986 Other Income 13,011 4,740 4,000 4,600 Cash & Equivalents 5,565 16,553 19,616 41,140 Profit before Tax 43,478 40,215 43,888 51,751 Other Current Assets 23,161 30,196 33,366 40,088 Total Tax 10,110 10,215 12,741 15,096 Current Liabilities 39,553 48,941 44,403 57,242 Profit after Tax 33,368 30,001 31,147 36,655 Other Assets 43 320 320 320 Ex-Od items / Min.
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