Point of View | Tell Me More. Russia on Macron's Détente Initiatives

TELL ME MORE RUSSIA ON MACRON’S DÉTENTE INITIATIVES

Marek Menkiszak NUMBER 83 WARSAW MARCH 2021

TELL ME MORE RUSSIA ON MACRON’S DÉTENTE INITIATIVES

Marek Menkiszak © Copyright by Centre for Eastern Studies

CONTENT EDITOR Adam Eberhardt

EDITOR Katarzyna Kazimierska

CO-OPERATION Szymon Sztyk, Małgorzata Zarębska

TRANSLATION Radosław Alf

CO-OPERATION Jim Todd

CHARTS Urszula Gumińska-Kurek

GRAPHIC DESIGN PARA-BUCH

DTP IMAGINI

PHOTOGRAPH ON COVER Jose Luis Stephens / Shutterstock.com

Centre for Eastern Studies ul. Koszykowa 6a, 00-564 Warsaw, Poland tel.: (+48) 22 525 80 00, [email protected] www.osw.waw.pl

ISBN 978-83-65827-72-2 Contents

MAIN POINTS | 5

INTRODUCTION | 8

SUMMARY | 48 • • • MAIN POINTS MAIN

Macron has also tried to give a European dimension to the policy of of policy the to dimension a European give to tried also has Macron three been have Macron’sactions However, despite friendly gestures from both sides and a very inten a very However,and sides both from gestures friendly despite Russian Republic French the of President as office took Macron Emmanuel to Moscow’s attitude. It has welcomed Macron’swhose initiatives,welcomed It has Moscow’sattitude. to of 2019. summer the in next the the and France effectivenesssovereigntyof policy the and ensure to a unless that trust and security in Europe. This approach his resulted diagno from in dialogue with Russia and work with it to build an architecture of of an architecture build to it with work and Russia with dialogue in in May 2017. In his statements, he has proclaimed the need to engage rheto Third, technologies). advanced including sphere, economic the in logue has had any meaningful, tangible results. This is largely due largely is This results. tangible meaningful, any had has logue dia this that or relations, bilateral their in breakthrough positive urging them to support it. Here, his efforts had two active phases: the partially revived; second, this dialogue has been deepened and inten first came just after he took office as president in the spring of 2017, of 2017, spring the in president as office took he after just came first blySyria, Libya weUkraine), and saycannot anybeen has there that sified (mainly on strategic issues, including regional conflicts, and conflicts, regional including issues, strategic on (mainly sified crisis in the Westernsis of community and the growing assertiveness siveFrench dialogue with Russiawith dialogue by and states member EU explainingother to it country. Macron driven likelyhave that The factors Union. European entire non of a central role in the EU’s political and economic relations with that with relations economic and EU’spolitical the in role a central Germany,rivalrywith an informal as playedtraditionally has which well as Russia, in business French promote to a desire include also ric has partly overlapped with Russia’s, exploiting in the hope of ‑Western powers (including Russia), as well as his conviction his as ‑Westernwell as Russia),powers (including ‑French dialogue (especially political dialogue) have been have dialogue) political (especially dialogue ‑French ‑Russian dialogue, including on regional problems (nota problems regional on including ‑Russiandialogue, modus vivendi modus with Moscow is found, it will be difficult difficult be will it found, Moscowis with ‑pronged. First, the channels of of channels the First, ‑pronged. ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑

5 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 6 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 • • •

ratv attd twrs i efrs Hwvr te rset for prospects However, the efforts. his towards attitude ‑reactive lhuh o oiie ratruh n rnes n te Us rela EU’s the and France’s in breakthrough positive no Although The COVID‑19 pandemic that has affected Europe and Russia since Russia and Europe affected has that pandemic The COVID‑19 2020, reducing direct contacts and travel, has made it difficult to difficult it made has travel, and contacts direct reducing 2020, when Russian used secret chemical service officers weapons to attack Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in August 2020. This led to have actions his NATO’s)and Russia,alone towards EU’spolicy (let the of overhaul to unable been has Russia’sMacron to stance, Due envi Europe’sexternal as well as US, the and countries European ture and perception of its European partners, whom it has regarded has it whompartners,European its of perception and ture these initiatives depend on factors which are essentially beyondthe essentially are which factors on initiativesdepend these to appear not does Macron achieved, been has Russia with tions in relations with Moscow, which is likely to maintain its passive its maintain to likely is Moscow,which with relations in anywayblow a serious dealt was process the But dialogue. maintain soli the violate to France’sunwillingnesstime, same At the results. tangible than rather successes relations public achieve to intended dis growing its within and EU,NATO the and of solidarity internal cul strategic its with consistent been has This relations. normalise to order in concessions any making of intention no with ronment, pute with the US.the with pute the breaching in go to prepared is France far how testing been has ae opeey bnoe hs tep t big bu a détente a about bring to attempt his abandoned completely have been increasingly perceived in Moscow as limited and inconsistent, and limited as Moscow in perceived increasingly been sanctions against Russia have led to growing disappointment and disappointment growing to led have Russia against sanctions exasperation in the Kremlin. the in exasperation of policy continued the in participation its and allies its of darity towards policy aggressive its continued has It easier. any efforts his made not has it community,but Western the within divisions and a temporary limitation of the French the of limitation a temporary and West’sthe in chill another EU’s)the Russia(including with relations it so, In doing compromises. political make to willing potentially as ‑Russiandialogue. ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ French president’s control, primarily the policies of Joe Biden’sJoe new of policies the primarily president’scontrol, French US administration, including US‑European relations, as well as eco as well as relations, US‑European including administration, US nomic and political developmentsEuropeitself. political in and nomic ‑

7 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 8 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 ‑Chinese or Russian or ‑Chinese years, Macron presented a vague vision of overhauling the relationship overhaulingthe of vision a vague presented years,Macron This text is divided into two parts. In the first, the author seeks to out to seeks author the first, In the parts. two into divided is text This INTRODUCTION It should be noted that this text does not seek to provide a comprehen provide to seek not does text this that noted be It should attitudes sides’ both of effects the of summary a brief with It concludes although Russia, to space little relativelydevoted he Union, European Marche On 14 May 2017, Emmanuel Macron, the leader of of leader the Macron, Emmanuel 2017, May 14 On the author sets out to reconstruct Russia’s approach to Macron’sRussia’srheto to reconstruct approach to out sets author the analyse to and Russia, to respect with concept his of assumptions the the and France in reform of slogans on centred which campaign, tion influenced the relationship between Paris and Moscow.and Parisbetween relationship the influenced rule. his under France towards attitude its presents and policies and ric and months following presidency.In the his of themes important more elec In his Republic. French the of President as in sworn was 2016, in however,the Moscowwith relations troubled of one became issuethe of office, taking After it. with dialogue to return to aim his signal did he history; nor does it focus on various important factors that form their form that factors important various on focus it does nor history; reconstruct to operated, has Macron which in context political the line between Russia & France and the entire EU, a return to dialogue and dialogue to a return EU, entire the and France Russia & between sive analysis of contemporary Russian contemporary of analysissive part, second In the practice. into it put to taken has he steps the of some context, in particular French particular in context, Russian on cooperation.

[Forward, Republic!], the centre ‑French relations to date and a reflection on their prospects. their on a reflection and date to relations ‑French ‑Chinese relations, all of which have undoubtedly have which of all relations, ‑Chinese ‑German, European ‑German, ‑liberal political party he founded ‑French relations or their recent their or relations ‑French ‑American, European‑American, a éulqe En République La ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ Ambassador Pierre Vimont, that the starting point is a diagnosis of crisis crisis Ambassador Pierre Vimont, of thatthestartingpointisa diagnosis eg i te ih aant errs, nry n ciae oiy space policy, climate and energy terrorism, against fight the in (e.g. 1 1. Russia in Macron’s in concept 1. Russia Moscow’s stance is crucial (such as in Syria, Libya and other African African other and Libya Syria, in as (such crucial is stance Moscow’s within the Western community (especially transatlantic relations and relations transatlantic (especially Westerncommunity the within unclear.remains Russia with I. MACRON ON RUSSIA ONI. MACRON Dialogue and cooperation with Russia are supposed to be a part of this of a part be to supposed are Russia with cooperation and Dialogue the and hand, one the death’)on a ‘brain NATO,experiencing is which and president French bythe made statements the from inferred be It can or Macron’srhetoric Emmanuel in theme only the neither was Russia technology, so that it does not become an object of geopolitical struggle geopolitical of an object become not does it that technology,so rise of non of rise con his of substance the Still, time.over grow to began importance its research, digital technologies, and in the Arctic). Macron also believes also Macron Arctic). the in and technologies, digital research, policy,whereconflicts and crises international to regard especiallywith Europe’sdevelop self to need the proclaimed has he United the that believes Macron other. the on Russia, and China larly Russia, with trust and security of architecture the envoyfor special his days.early the in especially one, a major evenpolicy, nor States is strategically disengaging from Europe, and that its policies are policies its that and Europe, from disengaging strategically is States between the US on the one hand and China & Russia on the other.the on Russia & China and hand one the on US the between situation, EU.In this the for an asset than a challenge of more becoming states, Iran, and Ukraine), and where common interests should be sought cept for a new formula of French and EU policy concerning relations concerning policy EU and French of formula a new for cept autonomy’), primarily in the area of security and defence as well as well as defence and security of area the in primarily autonomy’),

See President Macron’s keynote speech at the University of Paris: Paris: of University the at speech keynote Macron’s President See Europe, Speech by M. Emmanuel Macron, President of the French Republic’ French the of President Macron, M. Emmanuel by Speech Europe, bonne , 26 September 2017, international.blogs.ouest 2017, 26 September , ‑Westernpowers assertivepursuing are policies,that particu - france.fr. ‑reliance (‘strategic ‑reliance 1 Nevertheless, ‘Initiative for for ‘Initiative , Sor ‑ ‑ ‑

9 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 10 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 Another intended element of the French tactics was the establishment the was tactics French the of element intended Another and deconfliction, for channels create to made be should efforts Africa, to tactics France’spolitical about speaking while Vimont, Ambassador (the EU and especially NATO)especially and (the EU US’sthe alterna at real initiative,no has it 3 2 Macron’s policy towards Russia does not come in a historical vacuum, a historical in come not does Russia towards Macron’spolicy wards Russia, added that where Russian interests pose a challenge, as in as a challenge, pose Russianwhereinterests that Russia,wards added 2. Macron and Russia: the burden of the past the of burden the Russia: and 2. Macron the end of the Cold War, were of particular political significance. political particular War,Cold of werethe of end the Worldafter RussianFederation). War II,the after The decades especially or USSR, the Empire, Russian the of form the in (whether country that military.the and services secret also but diplomats, only involvenot to taking tive tocooperationwiththeEUasitlacks thecapacitytobecomean inde it as West the by deceived and threatened feels Russia although that multilateral forums (the UN, the OSCE) should be used to prevent Russia pendent superpower, and does not want to be China’sbe to brother’. want ‘little superpower,not pendent does and Western institutions of expansion eastward the with ahead pressed has but has been built on the centuries the on built been has but ernment officials. ernment Russiangov newof generationthe representativeswith of a dialogue of

Affairs, published by Embassy of France in the United Kingdom, 19 February 2020, 2020, 19 February Kingdom, United the in France of Embassy by published Affairs, ‘Audition de M. Pierre Vimont envoyé spécial du président de la république pour see more For The Economist’ Hearing of M. Pierre Vimont, the French President’s special envoy for the architec the for envoy special President’s French the Vimont, M. Pierre of Hearing lished by Embassy of France in Latvia, 27 August 2019, lv.ambafrance.org; lv.ambafrance.org; 2019, 27 August Latvia, in France of Embassy by lished l’architecture de sécurité et de confiance avec la russie’ la avec de confiance et de sécurité l’architecture nuel Macron in his own words (English). The French president’s interview with with interview president’s The French (English). words own his in Macron nuel dent of the Republic’ the of dent ary 2020, www.nossenateurs.fr. 2020, ary Committee’ Forces Armed and ture of security and trust with Russia, before the Senate Foreign Affairs, Defence Defence Affairs, Foreign Senate the before Russia, with trust and security of ture uk.amba fait accompli france.org. ‘Ambassadors’ conference – Speech by M. Emmanuel Macron, Presi Macron, M. Emmanuel by Speech conference – ‘Ambassadors’ , The Economist, 7 November 2019, www.economist.com; www.economist.com; 2019, 7 November The Economist, , 3 actions. In the case of Libya, thisdialogueisexpected actions. In thecaseof , The French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs, pub Affairs, Foreign and Europe for Ministry The French , , The French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Foreign and Europe for Ministry French The , ‑long legacy of French policy towardspolicy French of legacy ‑long , NosSénateurs.fr, , 19 Febru ‘ Russia – Russia – ‘Emma 2 ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ with Berlin in the intensity of its relations with the Russian Federation,Russian the with relations its of intensity the in Berlin with rejoined it (which NATO’sin 1966 from structures withdrawal military Europe in order to preventto Europeorder hegemony.in German politi its nurtured It also cultural and economic intensivepolitical, maintain to continued France up give not did it the 1940s, in Communities European the NATOand power,with a European as itself of thinking stopped never has France General Charles de Gaulle in the 1960s, was the establishment of prag of establishment the was the 1960s, in de Gaulle Charles General of rule the during France’spolicy,distinctiveespecially of feature One the Middle East and the Far East. Even when it became a co‑founder of of a co‑founder became it Evenwhen East. Far the and East Middle the in 2009) and the development of its own nuclear forces. Despite a pain Despite forces. nuclear own its of development the and in 2009) its by particular in policy,symbolised security and foreign distinct its it nevertheless tried to informally compete with it to a degree in this in a degree to it with compete informally to tried nevertheless it (1990) Europe a New for Paris of Charter the of signing the in reflected was which Europe, in architecture security and political of a new idea relations in thaw the was East’ ‘European the in interest intense more the and Union Soviet the with relations economic and political matic Community). Defence European the of creation the blocked it had and governments friendly support situation, the stabilise to order in pro the in emerged that states independent newly the with relations fight terrorism. It also reconciled with democratic Germany and sought Germanyand democratic with reconciled It also terrorism. fight not was (which Asia and Africa in colonies former its to farewell ful between the West and the Soviet Union, and then Russia, after the end the after Russia, then and Union, Soviet the Westand the between special interests not only on our continent but also beyond – in Africa, Africa, in beyond – also but continent our on only not interests special so‑called Balladur Plan from 1993). so‑calledAlthough BalladurParis Plan from 1993). was unable to keep up France’s the slogan ‘EuropeAtlantic from totheUrals’. Another periodof of the Cold War in the late 1980s. At that time, France promoted the promoted France time, At that late 1980s. the in War Cold the of the by rhetoric its in illustrated was which bloc, Soviet the of countries in 1954, earlier, (although policy defence and security European the of development the supported and US, the with relations in autonomy cal Berlin’sin balance influence to trying while it, with cooperation closer decolonisation.It alsointervened militarily,cess of for example in Africa, and the Pact on Security and Stability in Europe (1995, based on the on based (1995, Europe in Stability and Security on Pact the and wars), Algerian and Indochinese the by evidenced as bloodless,always ‑ ‑ ‑ 11 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 12 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 ‑Georgian conflict, and since June 2014 France has participated (e.g. at (e.g. at participated has France June 2014 since and conflict, ‑Georgian Russian the in mediated Sarkozy Nicolas President In 2008, ‑Karabakh. Although Emmanuel Macron, unlike François Fillon or Nicolas Sarkozy,Nicolas or Fillon François unlike Macron, Emmanuel Although 4 2003–2005 and2010–2011).Francehasalsoattimestriedto play an active France was Russia’swas twelfthFrance US the with (along co‑chair the been has it Since 1992, Europe. Eastern tions. NATO,and/ortimes UK at havethe US, the with coordination in taken dia a political Group,Normandy so‑called the in level) presidential the in 2020) and one of the country’s leading investors ($15bn in accumu in ($15bn investors leading country’s the of one and in 2020) meetings. coop economic and dialogue political of relations,institutions including Russia and traits sovereignist includes neo the of establishment the of part not is terrorism). against fight the and problem nuclear under Libya, and Balkans the Afghanistan, in interventions military broader of countries the in situation the stabilise to attempts in role Russian the of mat pitted France against Russia politically, but they have also encouraged also havethey politically, Russiabut against France pitted Russian the settle to created platform logue Armenian the in efforts mediation lead lated investment). Energy cooperation has been particularly intensive, particularly been has cooperation Energy investment). lated which tradition intellectual and strategic French a certain inherited has eration, with representatives from both sides typically holding annual holding typically sides both from representatives with eration, Iran’sSyria, Iraq, as issues such on (including Moscow with dialogue assumed both the positive and negative legacies of French of legacies negative and positive the both assumed to established was which Group, Minsk CSCE/OSCE the of Russia) and area. At the sametime, itperiodically acceptedtheMoscow

‘anti’ Putin: Debating Russia Policies in France and Germany and France in Policies Russia Debating Putin: ‘anti’ For more on French political debates about Russia, see B. Kunz, B. Kunz, see Russia, about debates political French on more For No. 28, IFRI, January 2018, www.ifri.org. 2018, January IFRI, No. 28, 4 On the positive side, there has been a rich infrastructure of such of infrastructure a rich been has there positiveside, On the ‑German ‑biggest trading partner in 2017 (thirteenth in 2017 partner trading ‑biggest ‑French triangle summits (meetings in 1998, in 1998, (meetings summits triangle ‑French ‑Azerbaijani conflict in Nagorno in ‑Azerbaijaniconflict ‑friendly attitudes. He has also has He attitudes. ‑friendly ‑Gaullist republican party,republican he ‑Gaullist ‑Ukrainian conflict. French conflict. ‑Ukrainian , Visions franco Visions ‑Russian rela ‑Russian Beyond ‘pro’ and and ‘pro’ Beyond ‑initiated for ‑allemandes ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ , Table. The main institutions of French‑Russian dialogue

Year of Chairmanship Name of institution Tasks establishment and participants Intergovernmental 1996 chaired by prime coordination of intergovernmental cooperation Commission on Bilateral ministers; Cooperation (ICBC) attended by selected ministers

Economic, Financial, 1992 chaired by ministers the executive body of the ICBC*; coordination Industrial and Trade Council of economy; of sectoral dialogue within 13 joint working (EFITC) attended by selected committees headed by deputy ministers deputy ministers (for information technology, communications and cooperation in the field of digital television and broadcasting; for aircraft construction; for construction, housing and utilities; for outer space; for transport and road infrastructure; for cooperation in the field of innovation; for tourism; for cooperation in the field of intellectual property protection and the fight against counterfeit goods; for energy; for territorial development; for cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy; for agriculture; for investment and modernisation of the economy)

* When the forum was established (1992) it was an independent body, but after the level of bilateral relations was raised (1996) it was formally subordinated to the ICBC. 13 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 14 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021

Table. The main institutions of French‑Russian dialogue (cont.)

Year of Chairmanship Name of institution Tasks establishment and participants Russian‑French Cooperation 2002 meetings of foreign dialogue on international issues Council on Security Issues and defence (CCSI) ministers

Interagency Working Group 2004 / 2013 meetings a body under the CCSI; dialogue on the fight against on New Challenges and of designated terrorism, organised crime and other threats; holds Threats (IWGNCT; formerly senior officials irregular meetings the Interagency Working Group on Fighting Terrorism)

High Russian‑French 1995 chaired by the chairs coordination of interparliamentary cooperation Interparliamentary of the lower houses Commission (HIC) of parliament; attended by selected deputies

Joint meetings of the foreign 2017 chaired by the an instrument for cooperation between committees affairs, defence and armed committee chairs of the upper houses of parliament; dialogue on forces committees of the and attended by international issues, terrorist threats, climate French Senate and the their members change and other challenges; preparation of joint foreign affairs committee reports assessing the current situation and policy of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation ‑Nissan), aviation (Dassault), food (Danone), retail (Auchan), industrial (Auchan), retail (Danone), food (Dassault), aviation ‑Nissan), €14n codn t Fec dt ad 2.b acrig o Russian to according $28.1bn and data French to according (€21.4bn Russia’scompanies. (Sanofi) pharmaceutical and Electric), (Schneider invested (20% stake,$6bn an important been Russiaalso has since 2018). 5 with other raw materials accounting for a further 11% (in 2019 these fig these (in 2019 a further 11% for accounting materials raw other with been also levels,have local and regional at cooperation cultural as well Russian energy exports to France (due to lower prices). Indeed, exports Indeed, lowerprices). to (due France to exports energy Russian (17 Russian satellites commercial launch to Guiana French in Kourou at cosmodrome French located conveniently the used has Roskosmos On the negative On the side, Russian $3 billion in France. Scientific cooperation and academic exchanges, as exchanges, academic and cooperation Scientific France. in $3 billion the value of French exports to Russia (mainly components for aircraft, for components (mainly Russia to exports French of value the active been have companies 40 Russian and Russia in operated have tal in France (including Russian Railways and Gazprom companies). Rus companies). Gazprom and RailwaysRussian (including France in (Renault automotive including corporations, French other for market in 2015 – $11.6bn). This resulted not only from Russian‑EU economic Russian‑EU from only not resulted This $11.6bn). in 2015 – Rus to (according data French to according billion €10.4 at years in ures was 77% and 11% respectively). Over the same period (2011–2016), period same the Over 11% respectively). and 77% was ures about of total a invested have companies Russian and plants, power Russia’sTotal’sbyin investmentled Novatek Soyuz rockets were launched there from 2011 to May 2017, rising to 24 to 24 rising May 2017, to from 2011 there launched were rockets Soyuz by the end of 2020). In total, more than 600 companies with French capi French with 600 companies than more In total, of 2020). end bythe sanctions, in place since 2014, but primarily from a declining value of of value a declining from primarily but since 2014, place in sanctions, recorded was volume lowest the while in 2016 $13bn was it data, sian nuclear French of needs fuel uranium the of a quarter supplied has sia data – accounted for up to 68% of total Russianin 2016,total France to exports of to 68% up for accounted data – French to according gas – natural and products petroleum oil, crude of levellowest its at was in 2016 and since 2013, steadily fallen has data), developingrapidly. For more on Russian on more For in Moscow in tion , www.mid.ru., , ru.ambafrance.org; ru.ambafrance.org; , 5 ‑French cooperation in various areas, see see areas, various in cooperation ‑French ‑French trade volume,trade ‑French which peaked in 2011 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federa Russian the of Affairs Foreign of Ministry ‑owned Yamal LNG project YamalLNG ‑owned Embassy of France France of Embassy ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ 15 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 16 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 6 (according to Russian data, the fall was greater at $4.9bn).at greater was fall the data, Russian to (according 10 15 20 25 30 10 15 20 25 tistics Service tistics Sources: 30 according to French figures* French to according 1. Chart according to Russian figures Russian to according 2. Chart lekiosque.finances.gouv.fr. Taxes, Indirect and Customs of Source: been has (which trade arms excluding statistics, customs to according data * French spacecraft and cars, pharmaceuticals and chemicals) fell by €2.6 billion €2.6 billion by fell chemicals) and pharmaceuticals cars, and spacecraft 0 5 0 5 covered by the EU embargo against Russia since 2014). Russia against embargo EU the by covered Trade Representation of the Russian Federation in the French Republic French the in Federation Russian the of Representation Trade com/database rosstat.gov.ru; rosstat.gov.ru; economy.com trade.fr [USD billion] [EUR billion] 2011 13.3 14.8 2011 13.9 7.5

Données pays selon la nomenclature agrégée: RU – Russie RU – agrégée: nomenclature la selon pays Données

www.ru Trade dynamics between France and Russia in 2011–2020 in Russia and France betweendynamics Trade Trade dynamics between Russia and France in 2011–2020 in France and Russiabetween dynamics Trade , per: Ministry of Finance of the French Republic; portals portals Republic; French the of Finance of Ministry per: , 2012 13.8 10.5 2012 11.9 , rosstat.gov.ru; rosstat.gov.ru; , 9.1 . - , stat.com/database Frin rd saitc o France’ of statistics trade ‘Foreign www.russian 2013 13.0 2013 10.6 9.0 7.7 2014 10.6 2014 Federal Customs Service Customs Federal 10.2 7.6 6.7 - trade.com , 2015 www.russian 2015 5.9 5.7 6.3 4.5 , per: per: , 2016 2016 8.4 4.6 5.5 4.9 - imports fromimports France in billion USD exports to Franceexports in billion USD imports fromimports Russia in billion euros exports to Russia in billion eurosexports trade.com eea Sae ttsis Service Statistics State Federal 2017 2017 ,www.customs.gov.ru. 9.6 5.8 7.7 5.6 , TrendEconomy, TrendEconomy, , , The Directorate , per: per: , 2018 2018 10.0 9.6 7.6 5.3 Federal State Sta State Federal 6 2019 2019 8.6 6.4 8.7 5.6 www.ru www.trend , www.rus ‑General ‑General 2020 2020 8.1 4.6 5.7 5.1 - stat. ‑ ‑ , 7 (ICBC) since November 2013, and the Interagency Working Group on Group Working Interagency the and November 2013, since (ICBC) The main political problem in Russian in problem political The main whose activities resumed before Macron took office as president (after president as office took Macron before resumed activities whose Hollande called Russian actions a war crime and said Moscow could be could Moscow said and crime a war actions Russian called Hollande interest particular Russia’sof regions and countries in assertivepolicies working its with along (EFITC) Council Trade and Industrial Financial, body The only June 2015. since (IWGNCT) Threats and Challenges New Russian N euiy oni rslto amd t atn te bombardments the halting at aimed resolution Council Security UN turn, cancelled a visit to France scheduled for the autumn of 2016 after of 2016 autumn the for scheduled France to a visit cancelled turn, a genuine sparkedeven of 2016 autumn the in region Aleppo the in ties countries, African other of a number Libyaand Syria, as such France, to Moscow which to Russia, against sanctions economic limited and tions sanc political of extension an annual for consensus EU the in ticipated facili civilian on strikes air Russian Massive tensions. caused also have counter its extending by responded has gered by its aggression against Ukraine in 2014. France has loyally par loyally has France in 2014. Ukraine against aggression its by gered groups. broader relations with the EU and the West, was the political crisis trig crisis political the West,was the and EU the with relations broader sued at the International Criminal Court. President Vladimir Putin, in Putin, Vladimir President Court. Criminal International the at sued a French blocked Russia relations: bilateral in crisis High the October 2012, since met not has (CCSI) Issues Security on cil limbo.havein The Russiandialogue left been French the country.the to exports keyof the bodies As a result, and deploying humanitarian aid in October 2016. President François President October 2016. in aid humanitarian deploying and January 2016) in years,two than more of a hiatus Cooperation Bilateral on CommissionIntergovernmental the ary 2013, It is worth noting that the Council meeting, which took place on 25 January 2016 in in 2016 25 January on place took which meeting, Council the that noting worth It is Moscow was chaired on the French side by the then minister of economy, indus economy, of minister then the by side French the on chaired was Moscow December 2017 (in a 2017 December mum security labour camp. labour security mum large attempted of charges on later months nine the then minister of economic development Aleksei Ulukayev, who was arrested arrested was who Ulukayev, Aleksei development economic of minister then by headed the was side Russian the Macron; Emmanuel one technology, digital and try Fec Itralaetr Cmiso (I) ic Febru since (HIC) Commission Interparliamentary ‑French de facto political trial) to eight years’ imprisonment in a maxi in imprisonment years’ eight to trial) political ‑French relations, as in Russia’sin as relations, ‑French ‑sanctions, which affect French affect which ‑sanctions, ‑scale corruption and sentenced in in sentenced and corruption ‑scale ‑French Cooperation Coun Cooperation ‑French 7 was the Economic, the was ‑sponsored draft ‑sponsored ‑Russian ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ 17 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 18 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 (8 May) the day after winning the presidential election, and invitedhim and election, presidential the winning dayafter the (8 May) 8 9 The presidents’ high The presidents’ In retrospect, it can be concluded that concluded be can it In retrospect, services secret and media state Russian when aggressive actions hybrid Russian of end receiving the on was himself Macron Emmanuel Hollande statedthathedidnotintendtoraiseany othertopicthanSyria 3. Macron and the attempts at French-Russian détente French-Russian at attempts the and 3. Macron ment of the European Union). European the of ment issues) and give it a European dimension (especially through the involve deepen to dialogue), political (especially dialogue reviveof channels the more the all was it Thus below). further (see of 2017 half first the in pened as early as 29 May 2017.as early as pened him against campaign subversion and propaganda a hostile unleashed gic dialogue and cooperation. and dialogue gic tive phases. The first one came immediately after he took office as office took he after immediately came one tiveThe first phases. surprising when he eagerly accepted Vladimir Putin’s congratulations Vladimir accepted eagerly he when surprising desire to improve France’s relations with Russia and engage in strate in engage and Russia with France’srelations improve to desire hap whichFrance, to pay (18 May)to a visit call phone first their during meeting. their during n itniy t epcal i te cnmc pee n o strategic on and sphere economic the in (especially it intensify and theFrenchpresidentattimedemonstrateda clear and therhetoricof ‑Russian friendship. He also stressed that “none of the major contemporary prob contemporary major the of “none that stressed also He friendship. ‑Russian 29 May 2017,www.en.kremlin.ru. During their joint press conference, President Macron referred to the 300 the to referred Macron President conference, press joint their During A. Luhn, K. Willsher, EmmanuelMacron’ lems can be solved without the participation of Russia”. According to Macron, the the Macron, to According Russia”. of participation the without solved be can lems most important topics of the talks were the situation in Syria, the fight against against fight the Syria, in situation the were talks the of topics important most www.theguardian.com. 2016, 11 October ian, economic & cultural cooperation projects), and the situation in Russia (including (including Russia in situation the and projects), cooperation cultural & economic the rights of the LGBT community in Chechnya). Chechnya). in community LGBT the of rights the and dialogue humanitarian (including cooperation bilateral Ukraine, terrorism, sary of a visit by Tsar Peter I to France, emphasising the long tradition of French of tradition long the emphasising France, Peter I to Tsar by a visit of sary , the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation, Federation, Russian the of President the of Administration the , ‑profile meeting at the Palace of Versailles Paris near of Palace the at meeting ‑profile ‘Vladimir Putin cancels Paris visit amid Syria row’ 8 9 Macron’s actions were three Macron’swere actions Macron’s efforts had two ac two had Macron’sefforts ‘Meeting with President of France France of President with ‘Meeting ‑pronged: to ‑pronged: , The Guard , th anniver - ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑

10 President in 2017 President a new format of dialogue with Russia – the Trianon Dialogue.Trianon the Russia – with dialogue of format a new

Trianon Dialogue. The agreement to launch it was struck in Sep in struck was it launch to The agreement Dialogue. Trianon The Trianon Dialogue The Trianon ForeignMinistry’s does Morel, Pierre university),Ambassador and 15 repre (with Council Coordinating -member a 30 by led Dialogue, However,years.many fordeveloped the been had which Dialogue, was it trust, and understanding mutual build to Russia and France announced already was which initiative,Macron’s first President ter people ter fos to designed was cooperation the that clear It is (2020). tection the of city ‘the were topics priority The dialogue’s activists. tural of societies civil the between a dialogue as Conceivedtember 2017. oe iaea coeain ntaie ad rjcs Te Trianon The projects. and initiatives cooperation bilateral mote intended to evoke associations with the German not provide grants, but only offers advertising and assistance in assistance and advertising offers only but grants, provide not primarily for youth and scientists, entrepreneurs, artists and cul and artists entrepreneurs, scientists, and youth for primarily future’ (2018), education (2019), and climate & environmental pro environmental & climate and (2019), education (2018), future’ bringing together partners in cooperation, funded by various state variousby funded cooperation, in partners together bringing (the Russian MGIMO Torkunov,of Anatoly Professor rector by the sentatives each from Russiaheaded France,mainly academics) and sentatives from each of two internet portals (one in Russian and one in French) to pro to French) in one and Russian in (one portals internet two of participating the between meetings regular no that was difference and technology.and intended is Support countries. both from institutions private and creation the to down boiled it end the in envisaged; were activists the was May 2017, Versaillesin in Putin with meeting first his at Трианонский диалог Трианонский Foreign Affairs, www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en; www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en; Affairs, Foreign French Institute, 9 November 2020, www.institutfrancais.com. 2020, 9 November Institute, French ing discussions between French and Russian civil society’ civil Russian and French between discussions ing ‑to ‑people contacts and practical transfers of knowledge of transfers practical and contacts ‑people , and was primarily reflected in the establishment of of establishment the in reflected primarily was and , , www.dialogue - trianon.ru; an interview with Pierre Morel Pierre with an interview ‘Trianon Dialogue: Strengthen Dialogue: ‘Trianon ‑Russian Petersburg , the French Ministry of Ministry French the , 10 , the the , ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ 19 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 20 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 14 13 12 11 The institutions of dialogue were then revived; this was primarily re primarily was this revived; then were dialogue of The institutions Ministers of the two countries, Édouard Philippe and Dmitri Medvedev,Dmitri and Philippe Édouard countries, two the of Ministers The second phase of France’s stepped‑ France’s of phase The second In May 2018, President Macron revealed that a roadmap for a dialogue a dialogue for a roadmap that revealed Macron President In May 2018, the heads of both parliaments. Instead, the initiative has been seized been has initiative the Instead, parliaments. both of heads the ings of the intergovernmentalthe ministerial prime at commission bilateral ingsof the in isters Havre,France. Le in met at residence summer his visit to Putin Vladimir ing Russia. with shared be would matters those on information parliamentary commission (HIC) as of autumn 2018, the cooperation the autumn 2018, of as (HIC) commission parliamentary inter the reactivate to May 2018 in an agreement Despite (ICBC). level flected in the reactivation of meetings between foreign anddefence min flected inthereactivation of body still has not been revived, although there have been meetings of of meetings been have there although revived, been not has still body came in the summer of 2019. summer the in came of relations. For example, there was no resumption of the regular meet regular the of resumption no was there example,For relations. of developed which Russia countries from was excluded after its aggression 19 August 2019, on confidential that announced and prepared, been had cybersecurity on a seven against Ukraine in 2014) in Biarritz, France. Earlier, on 24 June, the Prime

24 June 2019, www.government.ru. 24 June 2019, 2019,www.en.kremlin.ru. Frin iitr egy arvs ttmn ad nwr o mda usin at question media a to answer and statement Lavrov’s Sergey minister ‘Foreign ‘Российско ques media answered and statements press made France and Russia of ‘Presidents Macron’ Emmanuel France of President with conference news ‘Joint The first meeting of a bilateral working group on international information security security information international on group working a bilateral of meeting The first Federation, 9 September 2019, www.mid.ru/en. 2019, 9 September Federation, mat, Moscow, September 9, 2019’ September 9, Moscow, mat, Sep in place took only technologies information and communication of area the in a news conference following Russian following conference a news tions’ 2020. tember www.en.kremlin.ru. 24 May 2018, Federation, Russian the of President the of tration ‑year hiatus. ‑year , the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation, 19 August August 19 Federation, Russian the of President the of Administration the , - 2 французские переговоры’французские + 2 format (CCSI) in Moscow on 9 September 2019, after 9 September 2019, on Moscow in (CCSI) format 12 just before the G7 summit (the forum of the most the of (the forum G7 summit the before just 14 However, this did not mean a full normalisation a full mean not However,did this 13 Macron made a special gesture by invit by gesture a special made Macron , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Russian the of Affairs Foreign of Ministry the , - French ministerial French , the Government of the Russian Federation, Federation, Russian the of Government the up actions towards Russia towards actions up - level talks in the 2+2 for the in talks level Fort de Brégançon de Brégançon Fort 11 , the Adminis the , ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ (43 times by the end of 2020). According to Kremlin statements,(43 times by the main the end of 2020). basis). (on an annual 16 15 In total, during the three and a half years of Macron’s rule, there haveMacron’s there rule, of years a half and three the during In total, joint annual held havethey February 2017; in back parliament) Russian otcs ae atclry nesfe a te ee o has f state. of heads of level the at intensified particularly have Contacts tions on these key international topics have also taken place at the levelthe at place taken havealso topics international key these on tions bilateral (27), Syria in situation the included haveconversation of topics cooperation. potential for topics international meetings and 1 videoconference). and meetings international produced and 2020) (in 2018 occasions two on and then, since meetings issues and crises is of great importance to him. Meetings and consulta and Meetings him. to importance great of is crises and issues international topical and important on Russia with dialogue that ments relations (20),Ukraine(18),Libya (10),Iran(9),theKarabakh conflict (5) by the French Senate, whose foreign affairs, defence & armed forces & armed defence affairs, foreign whose Senate, French the by been in touch (almost exclusively at Macron’s initiative) by telephone Macron’sby initiative)at exclusively (almost touch in been 4 at Russia, 2 in France, (4 in them between meetings 11 bilateral been occasions at the level of heads of foreign ministries. foreign of heads levelof the at occasions several on and ministries, foreign and presidents envoysof special of regularly met have groups working its and (EFITC) council cooperation foreign the with dialogue regular on a memorandum signed committee and the situation in Belarus (4). This was consistent with Macron’swaswith This consistent (4). Belarus in situation the and state and relations bilateral of assessment a comprehensive is which a report the of house (the upper Council Federation the of committee affairs

President Macron’s expected participation in the celebrations of the 75 the of celebrations the in participation expected Macron’s President А. Халитова, С. Изотов, доверии» доверии» гический диалог’ гический cil.gov.ru France about news – Federation Russian the of cil news/?countries=FR on 9 May 2020, was supposed to be a symbolically important event. However due due However event. important a symbolically be to supposed was 9 May 2020, on down, and the French president did not attend them. attend not did president French the and down, to the pandemic, the celebrations were first postponed (to 24 June), then scaled scaled then June), 24 (to postponed first were celebrations the pandemic, the to Square Red Moscow’s in parade military the including invitation), Putin’s accept to sary of the victory over Nazi Germany (he was one of very few European leaders leaders European few very of one was (he Germany Nazi over victory the of sary , , ; the Federation Council of the Russian Federation, 5 April 2018, 2018, 5 April Federation, Russian the of Council Federation the the Senate of the French Republic, 15 June 2020, www.senat.fr. 15 June 2020, Republic, French the of Senate the Совместный доклад «Россия доклад Совместный , Известия, , ; олд «Россия Доклад ‘Совет Федерации и сенат Франции выходят на страте на выходят Франции и сенат Федерации ‘Совет 27 February 2017, www.iz.ru; 15 On the other hand, the ministerial the hand, other On the - Франция: за повестку дня, основанную на на основанную дня, повестку за Франция: - Франция: за повестку дня, основанную на на основанную дня, повестку за Франция: , www.council.gov.ru/events/ 16 The leaders have also have The leaders The Federation Coun The Federation www.coun th anniver ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ 21 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 22 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 Another outcome of Macron’s presidency has been the deepening of of deepening the been has presidency Macron’s of outcome Another revealed,Vimont Ambassador dialogue, strategic bilateral the of As part 17 vanced technologies. These were not new topics in bilateral relations. bilateral in topics new not were These technologies. vanced 10 12 14 16 ian issues, human rights and the role of women in conflicts and their and conflicts in women of role the and rights human issues, ian of area the in cooperation bilateral challenges; strategic and nological tech areas: five in Russia to conveyedwere proposals French in 2019 prevention; regional conflicts. prevention; regional Chart 3. Chart dent of the Russian Federation. Russian the of dent security and defence; European cooperation in these fields; humanitar fields; these in cooperation European defence; and security dia Source: 0 2 4 6 8

work of joint research projects, laboratories, research centres, etc. centres, etc. research laboratories, projects, research joint of work RUS Plus programme to support scientific cooperation with Russia). with cooperation scientific support to programme Plus RUS has been developing for many years, and a densenow net consists of funded both by the two sides (especially France, e.g. FrenchLAB e.g. FrenchLAB France, (especially sides two the by both funded Scientific and Scientific technological cooperation between the two countries French‑technology and science in Russiancooperation and other projects of the CNRS centre) and the EU (the ERA.Net (the ERA.Net EU the and centre) CNRS the of projects other and logue and cooperation between France and Russia in the field of ad of field the in Russia and France between cooperation and logue For more see see more For Moscow,www.ru.ambafrance.org. author’s own compilation based on data from the Administration of the Presi Dynamics of contacts between Macron and Putin and Macron between contacts of Dynamics 2017 5 2 ‘Partenariats’ telephone calls telephone and and 2018 14 5 ‘Innovation’ , Embassy of the French Republic in in Republic French the of Embassy , bilateral meetings 2019 9 3 17 2020 1 15 ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑based economy and the digital economy, has fostered the deepening of of deepening the economy,fostered has digital the and economy ‑based 4. Macron and EU policy towards Russia towards policy EU and 4. Macron While developing his country’s bilateral dialogue with Russia, Emma Russia, with dialogue bilateral country’s his developing While 18 To this end, he has also tried to enlist the support of EU partners for partners EU of support the enlist to tried also has he end, To this was reflected in the first meeting of the Russian the of meeting first the in reflected was uoen no. hs s osset ih i vso o strengthening of vision his with consistent is This Union. European French economy,indus the for minister a former as who – Macron, President the sovereignty and independence of the community and its policies. its and community the of independence and sovereignty the the within primarily action, multilateral require security ternational France’sat hinted supplies.Macron and chains technological of area the theFuture’ inMoscow of inDecember 2019(earlier,try bilateral thefirst knowledge the of concepts the espouses technologies – digital and try ideas have converged with the actions of some European politicians and Europeanpoliticians some haveof ideas actions convergedthe with decisions important some that awareness his shown has Macron nuel economy”.Russian the of diversification in the his concept of restoring dialogue and cooperation with Russia. These Russia. with cooperation and dialogue restoring of concept his human (IoT), Things of Internet the include projects joint for areas priority forum organisedunderthesamebannerwas heldin April). The declared concerning economic and trade cooperation as well as dialogue on in on dialogue as well as cooperation trade and economic concerning ambitions in May 2018 when he said that it “would like to participate to like “would it that said he when May 2018 in ambitions

Within its framework, the Russian the framework, its Within Chamber of Commerce and Industry, supports dialogue in the field Industry,and Commerce field the in dialogue supports of Chamber include nanotechnology, energy and environmental technologies, environmental and nanotechnology,energy include biotechnology,development. regional and robotics of advanced technologies. The priority areas of this cooperation this of areas The priority technologies. advanced of Russian the of auspices the under 2016 in established ‘Joint news conference with President of France…’, of President with conference news ‘Joint ‑Russian cooperation in the area of advanced technologies. This technologies. advanced of area the in cooperation ‑Russian ‑machine interfaces, augmented reality (AR), and innovationsin and (AR), reality augmented interfaces, ‑machine ‑French NAUKAINNOV ‑French op. cit. 18 ‑French Council ‘Indus Council ‑French ‑French centre, ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ 23 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 24 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 20 19 The French president has also taken note of the initiatives put forward put initiatives the of note taken also has president The French Maas, concerning a ‘new EU eastern policy’ which would also include also would which policy’ eastern EU a ‘new concerning Maas, which came in the summer of 2019, was closely correlated with this with correlated closely was of 2019, summer the in came which with Russia since 2012.PresidentMacronlefthiminpostwhile nominat Russia’ in September 2019, with Ambassador Pierre Vimont taking up taking Vimont Pierre Ambassador with September 2019, Russia’in undertakenaction. Ambassador thus concrete France dominatedinitiatives ona ‘newBerlin, asthelatterhassofar EUeastern Russia. Council in the second half of 2020. It can be presumed that the next the that presumed be It can of 2020. half second the in Council ord uoen aias o xli Mco’ cnet ie offering (i.e. concept Macron’s explain to capitals European toured to theRussian presidentandPutin’s foreign policy adviser, became chief Ushakov,Yuri Ambassador November 2019.an assistant late in post the ing his ownhis ing ‘special with security and trust envoy of architecture forthe nement Italy,Cyprus.as suchand ments, Austria, Hungary Russia. with relations phase of France’s stepped‑up efforts to improve relations with Russia, with relations improve to efforts France’sstepped‑up of phase EU’sthe of an overhaul for lobbying been has since 2019 – particularly partners for the French president’s initiatives addressed to Russia be Russia to addressed initiativespresident’s French the for partners European his formal partnerontheRussian side. Enlistingthesupport of Russia. with relations including policy’, since autumn 2019 by the head of the German Foreign Ministry,ForeignHeiko German the of head the by autumn 2019 since came one of Vimont’scame one of major tasks. In January and February 2020, Ministry’s eign relations economic envoy special developmentthe for of and Parisbetween rivalry informal a certain reflected developmentand govern some of representatives by sanctions mutual of consequences MoscowEderer,Markus to who – ambassador EU the including officials,

See See See Times, 13 September 2019, www.ft.com. 2019, 13 September Times, www.auswaertiges man Easternman Business Association (OAOEV)’ ‘Speech by Foreign Minister Heiko Maas at the New Year reception of the Ger the of reception Year New the at Maas Heiko Minister Foreign by ‘Speech ‘EU envoy urges bloc to engage more with Russia over 5G and data’ and 5G over Russia with more engage to bloc urges envoy ‘EU 20 , formerly an influential politician and official, had been its For its been had official, and politician an influential formerly , These were related to the German presidency of the European the of presidency German the to related were These - amt.de/en. 19 This has aligned with criticism of the negative the of criticism with aligned has This , Federal Foreign Office, 10 January 2019, 10 January 2019, Office, Foreign Federal , Jean ‑Pierre Chevè‑Pierre , Financial Financial , Vimont ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ 22 21 This act of terrorism by the Russian secret services (the substance used (the substance services secret Russian the by terrorism of act This enhl, h Erpa Uin ea a icsin n overhauling on discussion a began Union European the Meanwhile, was under strict control of the state security structures), even though it eventhough structures), security state the of control strict under was France as well. as France the in poisoned was relations bilateral of atmosphere However, the European CouncilPresidentCharlesMichelplanneda debateonGerman NATO, and paid visits to Poland, Finland and Lithuania. German Bundeswehr laboratory which identified the substance used as used substance the identified which laboratory Bundeswehr German the by tests of results the confirmed laboratory A French Convention. took placeonRussian territory, theChemicalWeapons was a violation of bytivitywasCOVID‑19interrupted swept the has that pandemic towards Russia, theso‑calledfive Mogherini in 2016) pointsagreed theEU’s targetingtions regime Russia orquestiontheprinciplesof policy its policy towards Russia, launching this process on 5 March 2020 at 5 March 2020 on process this launching Russia, towards policy its sanc EU’s the undermine to intend not does France that reassurance proposals to deepen the EU’s ‘selective engagement’ with Russia for the for Russia with EU’s‘selectiveengagement’ the deepen to proposals member EU from ambassadors with talks held He it. to reactions probe fare agent on 20 August caused widespread international repercussions. international widespread 20 Augustcaused on agent fare sian opposition leader Alexei Navalny using a using Navalny Alexei leader opposition sian Rus of assassination The attempted itself. Russia by of 2020 summer happen). not did this end the in (although of 2020 half second March 2020. since and Committee) Security and EU’sPolitical the of format (in the states a chemical weapon, thus giving Russian diplomacy a pretext to attack to a pretext diplomacy Russian giving thus weapon, a chemical Zagreb. in formula) Gymnich (in the meeting Council EU an informal

2020,www.avrupa.info.tr/en. See See see Russia, towards policy EU of principles five the of content the For News East, 15 March 2016, www.euneighbours.eu; www.euneighbours.eu; 2016, March 15 East, News ing of EU Foreign Ministers’ Foreign EU of ing europa.eu guiding principles guiding gemn o giig rnils f t plc twrs Russia’ towards policy its of principles guiding on agreement ‘Gymnich: Statement by the High Representative following the informal meet informal the following Representative High the by Statement ‘Gymnich: . , Briefing, February 2018, European Parliament, Parliament, European 2018, February Briefing, , , Delegation of the European Union to Turkey, 5 March Turkey,5 March to Union European the of Delegation , The EU’s Russia Policy. Five novichok However, this ac chemical war chemical , EU Neighbours Neighbours EU , www.europarl. ‘EU reaches reaches ‘EU Europe 21 and and 22 ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑

25 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 26 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 At the same time, however,time, same At the September 2020 – late in visits foreign during Assembly,Moscowurgedstronglyprovide Macron answersto President 25 24 23 visits by French ministers (of the interior and transport) to Moscow in Moscow to transport) and interior (of the ministers French by visits Macron postponed his visit to Russia which had been scheduled to take to scheduled been had which Russia to visit his postponed Macron against sanctions EU new the supported Paris uncooperative,Moscow Moscow, he had not abandoned his visions of détente. It was confirmed confirmed It was détente. of visions his abandoned Moscow,not had he Russia. mid in announced entities Russian General UN the to an address in and September in issued In statements including to Lithuania and Latvia, countries critical of the Kremlin’sthe of critical countries Latvia, and Lithuania to including policy – Macron reiterated the need for dialogue and cooperation with cooperation and dialogue for need the reiterated Macron policy – month. same the in place late 2020. etme, rne acle a etn o te oprto Council Cooperation the of meeting a cancelled France September, y arns eupin f hn cls ih ui i Nvme and November in Putin with calls phone of Macron’sresumption by on Security Issues in the in Issues Security on tone. a similar struck October early in Germany and France of Navalny’spoisoning. on

‘Cooperation with Russia necessary for long lasting peace, Macron says in Vilnius’ in says Macron peace, lasting long for necessary Russia with ‘Cooperation ‘Joint Statement – assassination attempted in poisoned by was Navalny the concludes analysis Foreign ‘French Ministers of France and Germany – Alexeï The Baltic Times, 28 September 2020, www.baltictimes.com. 2020, 28 September Times, The Baltic gouv.fr/en ’ y n l a v a N Elysee’ t N eea Assembly’ General UN at ber 2020, www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en. ber 2020, 25 hs hwd ht ept aohr oln o rltos with relations of cooling another despite that showed This , Reuters, 15 September 2020, www.reuters.com; www.reuters.com; 2020, 15 September Reuters, , , the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 7 October 2020, 2020, 7 October Affairs, Foreign of Ministry French the , . 23 te rnh iity f oeg Afis 2 Septem 22 Affairs, Foreign of Ministry French the , 2 A joint statement by the foreign ministers foreign the by statement A joint + 2 format scheduled for 14 September, and 14 September, for scheduled format ‑October 2020. Before that, in early in that, Before ‑October 2020. ‘Emmanuel Macron speaks speaks Macron ‘Emmanuel www.diplomatie. 24 With ‑ , eeto fvuie rnos iln te addt o te conservative, the of candidate the Fillon, François favourite ‑election Crimea of annexation the recognised she example, (for views ‑Russian 1. An initial sabotage attempt sabotage 1. An initial Minister who was also known for his sympathetic views towards Mos towardsviews sympathetic his for known also was who Minister withdraw from NATO, withdrawfrom policy friendly a more pursueUS, and the oppose II. RUSSIA ON MACRONON II. RUSSIA It seems, however, that the Kremlin was betting on a victory for the pre the for a victory on however,betting was It seems, Kremlin the that was it Kremlin, the For vote. the to importance great attached Russia phase, however,In the first itwas mainly forced totake actiontoprevent Macron’sPresident to activities.indifferent entirely been not has Russia towardsRussia. Moscow’seyes),in partner weaker its as (albeit Germany with together power.to in the spring 2017 French presidential elections which brought Macron brought which elections presidential French spring 2017 the in neo left, the of resentative finan and propaganda presidency.with the ‘reciprocated’ Moscowning Moscowpolicies,as especiallyperceivedits and EuropeanUnion the ing leader of the National Front (NF), Marine Le Pen, known for her pro her for known Pen, Le Marine (NF), Front National the of leader anti displayed generally which forces nationalist and ulist for the lifting of sanctions against Russia), had her best chance of win of chance best her had Russia), against sanctions of lifting the for cow and cooperation with it (for example, he had been a regular guest a regular been had he example, (for it with cooperation and cow a Russian in 2009, example, (for support cial concern issues key on decided effectively which a tandem constituted a loan to the NF). Another major candidate in the election was a rep was election the in candidate major Another NF). the to a loan called and ‘Christianvalues’Putin’s supported illegal’, ‘not of as defence pro and all a growing that, a country of head the become would who consequence of a matter interfere to attempt its to related relations bilateral in crisis a potential ‑Gaullist right (the Republicans, formerly the UMP), a former Prime a former UMP), the formerly(the Republicans, right ‑Gaullist ‑Russian attitudes. It was the same in France itself, where the where itself, France in same the It was attitudes. ‑Russian ‑round crisis in the community and a political rise of pop of rise a political and community the in crisis ‑round Jean ‑Luc Mélenchon, ‑Luc who called for France to France for called who ‑run Czech bank granted granted bank Czech ‑run ‑American ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑

27 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 28 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 26 sia). This was a convenient situation for the Kremlin as it could expect could it as Kremlin the for situation a convenient This was sia). a favourable turn in France’sin turn post a favourable Rus against sanctions EU criticised had and Russia’sForum Valdaiat

As Macron’s campaign. Alongside this operation, Moscow had already had Moscow operation, Macron’sthis Alongside campaign. illnesses, mental US, the to subservience as things such of Macron The Russian subversionThe Russian Macron against operation Le Pen), 15 GB of stolen data went online, along with individually with along online, went data stolen of 15 GB Pen), Le state Russian February 2017), three typical phases.(from In the first It consisted of faced Moscow polls, the in rising steadily was Macron Emmanuel two waves of cyberattacks (in early March and mid and March (in early cyberattacks wavesof two identified by Western internet companies as belonging to groups groups to belonging as companies Westerninternet by identified election. presidential US the 2016 during out carried had it ration candidate liberal energetic and young the while wife involvinghis licate (albeit on a considerably smaller scale) the subversion ope subversion the scale) smaller a considerably on (albeit licate scandal a job of a result as March 2017) (from chances election his forgeddocu en a pret o scel gy I te eod hces later – hackers second, the In gay. secretly or ‘pervert’ a being second round of the election, which saw Macron face off against off face Macron saw which election, the of round second decided to bolster Le Pen’s candidacy politically (or so it thought): it (or so Pen’spolitically Le candidacy bolster to decided emails of theft the in resulting campaign, Macron’sby used ers launched (GRU) – intelligence military Russian the by organised launched a negative service) eign reinforced propaganda campaign, n dcmns I te hr pae to as eoe h crucial the before days (two phase third the In documents. and Russiaby radicalised and rep to an attempt to resorted Russia situation, In this a challenge. Vilmer, For more details, see A. Guiton, Guiton, A. see details, more For www.atlanticcouncil.org. ditent la piste russe’ piste la ditent François Fillon’sFrançois

The “Macron Leaks” Operation: A Post Operation: Leaks” The “Macron ments meant to proveto meant ments in irregularities alleged financial ‑controlled media (including RT and the Sputnik for Sputnik the and RT (including media ‑controlled , Libération,, candidacy weakened, and he then squandered then he and weakened, candidacy ‑based internet trolls and bots. It accused It accused bots. and trolls internet ‑based 8 December2019, www.liberation.fr; «arnek» d nueu ééet accré éléments nouveaux de ‘«MacronLeaks»: ‑election foreign policy.foreign ‑election - Mortem , Atlantic Council, June 2019, June 2019, Council, Atlantic , ‑April) on serv ‑April)on 26 J. - B. Jeangène B. Jeangène ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ 27 To a certain extent, Russia’s intentions towards France may have been havemay France Russia’stowardsextent, intentions To a certain Moscow has welcomed President Macron’s efforts to improve bilateral improve Macron’sto Presidentefforts welcomed has Moscow Macron’s runninga hostilecampaign hadpublicly accusedRussia of staff which was issued jointly with the foreign affairs, defence and armed and defence affairs, foreign the with jointly issued was which 2. Russia’s intentions towards Macron: testing the limits the testing Macron: 2. Russia’stowards intentions French, did not present their own views there, but primarily followedprimarily but there, views own their present not did French, Paris to concessions Russian of examples find to However,difficult is it (although later or then either cyberattacks, the behind being of Russia effect desired the have not did above described actions However,the the instructions from the Kremlin and the Russian ForeignRussianMinistry. the and Kremlin the from instructions the turned tactic This president. new the with contact positive establish to representatives of the US secret services did do so publicly). so do did services secret US the representativesof of representatives as especially reaction, his of afraid been have may rules of Putin’s power, of rules Russiansystemrepresentatives,of the the unlike affairs foreign the of members by formulated proposals the in reflected spheres. economic or political the either in meetings. their during him praised repeatedly has Putin and relations, forces committee of theFrenchSenate. In accordancewiththe operating forces committeeof quickly moving by tensions ease to sought Moscow that reason this for committee of the Federation Council (the upper house of parliament) of house (the upper Council Federation the of committee accuse not did officials government French as one, right the be to out and included in a report on bilateral relations and their development their and relations bilateral on a report in included and against himandattemptingtointerfere intheelection. The Kremlin 7 May 2017. on elections presidential the won Macron and

24 March, an event which was givenwasextensivean eventwhich coverage. media 24 March, she was received in the Kremlin by President Vladimir Putin on Putin Vladimir President by Kremlin the in received was she Macron himself said in Putin’s presence in May 2017 that the Russian media – RT RT media – Russian the that May 2017 in presence Putin’s in said himself Macron ference with President of France…’, of President with ference and Sputnik – had been acting as “organs of deceitful propaganda”. ‘Joint news con news ‘Joint propaganda”. deceitful of “organs as acting been had Sputnik – and op. cit. 27 It was probably ‑ 29 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 30 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 28

‑Chinese draft treaty banning the deployment of weapons in space. in weapons of deployment the banning treaty draft ‑Chinese (or sign a joint declaration) committing to renounce the use of of use the renounce to committing declaration) joint a sign (or The Russian side also proposes a resumption of dialogue on secu on dialogue of a resumption proposes also side The Russian Rus for a ‘roadmap’ on agree to proposes Council The Federation The Federation Council proposes to create a mechanism for inter for a mechanism create to proposes Council The Federation The European security architecture security The European Russia’s demands are in line with its existing security policy strat policy security existing its with line in Russia’sare demands tions and agreeing on steps to increase mutual trust. In the second In the trust. mutual increase to steps on agreeing and tions rity in space, and a return to reciprocal visits by each side’swar each by visits reciprocal to a return and space, in rity Russian the supporting and continent; European the on missiles havetwosides convergingthe which posi on issues the identifying Military security in Europein security Military peaceful means exclusively. These documents would then be made be exclusively.then wouldmeans documents peaceful These declarations exchange would France and Russia 2022) (to phase parliamentary dialogue on issues of strategic stability and interna and stability strategic of issues on dialogue parliamentary adopting of aim the with format OSCE the in conference lateral a multi involveconveningwould phase The next binding. legally force as a first resort and to resolveforce as a first contentious issues in Europe by flank; adopting a moratorium on the deployment of medium deploymentthe on a moratorium adopting flank; of Interparliamentary dialogue Interparliamentary Russia’sreport joint the in included as proposals sian ships to the ports of Brest, Marseille and Vladivostok.Marseille Brest, of ports the to ships of the foreign affairs committee of the French Senate French the of committee affairs foreign the of and Russia’sand Federation Council egy. These include: abandoning NATO’s its eastern reinforcement of a new version of the Helsinkithe Accords (Helsinki 2.0). versiona new of involvewould of 2020) end (to the phase The first architecture. Совместный доклад «Россия доклад Совместный the Senate of the French Republic, 15 June 2020, www.senat.fr. 15 June 2020, Republic, French the of Senate the ‑French dialogue aimed at building a new European security European a new building at aimed dialogue ‑French - Франция: за повестку дня, основанную на доверии» на основанную дня, повестку за Франция: 28 ‑range ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ,

(Russian War II the and monuments to the Red Army and againstthe fighters The section devoted to economic cooperation notes that the Russian with the participation of non with the participation of In the area of humanitarian cooperation, Russia is interested in two in interested is Russia cooperation, humanitarian of area In the Group and launching an initiative in the interparliamentary forum interparliamentary an initiativethe launching in and Group to limited been have proposals Russian Ukraine, of issue On the German Nazism recognised at the UN as part of universal heritage, universal of part as UN the at recognised Nazism German the issues of economic cooperation and the situation in the areas of economic cooperation and the situation in the areas of the issues of Russia order’. established the in agreements Minsk the of tation ‘Ukrainian the of prolongation the prevent to measures develop to conference an interparliamentary convene to security,and tional it calls for economic and humanitarian assistance to be provided. be to assistance humanitarian and economic for calls it implemen the with problems with connection in crisis internal ing its initiative to have the victory of the Soviet Union in Worldin Union Soviet the of victory the have to initiative its ing French of use Firstly,the issues. cooperation economic of burden the shifting in interest a clear is Moreover,countries”. twothere the between ties bilateral of ment has had “an extremely negative impact on the state and develop and state the on impact negative “an extremely had has and forces Ukrainian between contact of line the on peacekeepers UN of deployment the negotiate to readiness its signalled also has o te upss f oiis f eoy fr xml b promot by example for memory, of politics of purposes the for Regional conflicts Regional Humanitarian cooperation Humanitarian cooperation Economic burg for this purpose. this for burg security and political relations should not be linked.be not should relations political and security which a factor as sanctions economic of lifting the prioritises side onto the interregional level. In general, the Russian side argues that Normandy so‑called the of format an interparliamentary creating ‑backed) separatists in the Donbas. On the Syrian conflict, Syrian On the Donbas. the in separatists ‑backed) ‑governmental organisations in St. Peters ‑Russian parliamentary contacts parliamentary ‑Russian ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑

31 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 32 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 (in the spirit of the principles of indivisible security which it empha it which security indivisible of principles the of spirit (in the These proposals indicate that indicate proposals These Russia expected France to violate its allied solidarity with NATOand with solidarity allied its violate to France expected Russia tives in the area of arms control and disarmament. and control arms of area the tivesin tensify it, and more specifically to take steps to potentially make this make potentially to steps take to specifically more and it, tensify eco providingunconditional Russia),and against sanctions EU lifting to nomic aid to Syria (effectively to the Assad regime). Assad the (effectivelySyriato to aid nomic logue and military cooperation with Moscow,with cooperation military Russianinitia and support logue and fulfil, in line with Russian interests and perceptions, its commitments its perceptions, and interests Russian with line in fulfil, In the area of international issues international of area In the In the area of economic cooperation economic of area In the both the EU and NATO to review their policies towards Russia, i.e. to i.e. to Russia, towards policies their review NATOto and EU the both support Moscow’s political goals, including putting pressure on Kiev to Kiev on pressure putting including goals,Moscow’s political support push possible where would Paris that hoping other the on while sised), on the Donbas under(which the Minsk agreements would open the door interests its with line in Moscow with agreements bilateral conclude abandon the reinforcement of the Alliance’s eastern flank, resume dia resume flank, Alliance’seastern the of reinforcement the abandon the state agency state the side) French the by (as declared societies civil between not tacts, reflect the ‘historical truth’‘historical the reflect Worldabout War II. pora to achieveto pora Kremlin’sthe goals). policy foreign dias Russian the using and controlling for a tool as in 2008 lished interregional and interparliamentary on emphasis particular Secondly, the Russian side has shown interest in developing con developing in interest shown has side Russian Secondly,the Compiled by by Compiled but rather between political and administrative structures, with structures, administrative and political between rather but organisation of the latter on the Russian side would be handled by handled be would side Russian the on latter the of organisation the that noted be It should cities). between (including cooperation and to revise school and university history textbooks in Europe to Europe in textbooks history university and school revise to and Witold Rodkiewicz Rossotrudnichestvo in the security area security the in (a bureaucratic structure estab structure (a bureaucratic , Russia expected France to partly to France expected Russia , , Russia expected France to in to France expected Russia , , on the one hand one the on , ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ Yamal peninsula) for $2.5 billion. This project was primarily beneficial beneficial primarily was project This $2.5 billion. for Yamalpeninsula) This list should be treated as Russia’s ‘maximum plan’. Indeed, it is un is it Russia’sIndeed, plan’.as ‘maximum treated be should list This Macron to the test. the to Macron Russia welcomed the major agreement in May 2018 for France’sTotal for May 2018 in agreement major the welcomed Russia 3. Russian policy towards Macron’s France: towards policy 3. Russian to acquire a 10% stake in the Yamal LNG project (gas production, lique production, (gas project YamalLNG the in a 10% stake acquire to favour a direction in states member leading its and EU the of policy the possible where would efforts that hoped It also Russia. against the US referred to the traditions of the two countries’ alliances in Worldin alliances Wars Itwocountries’ the of traditions the to referred them. lift and ease to decision EU a collective reach regarding the localisation of production, which French businessmen French which production, of localisation the regarding trans in tensions heighten particular in and interests, Moscow’s ing likely that Moscow realistically expected Paris, with its strong political strong its with Paris, expected realistically Moscow that likely o Mso. usa ae o pca ecpin fr rnh produc French for exceptions special no made Russia Moscow. for Russia’sthe with on Novatekpartnership in project export and faction n h hmntra area humanitarian the In be made to either have France block these sanctions at the EU forum, or forum, EU the at sanctions these block haveFrance either to made be been putting the limits to which France has been prepared to go under go to prepared been has France which to limits the putting been n t trioy Hwvr ocw rdal sepd p t demands its up stepped gradually Moscow However territory. its on regime, sanctions the under blockades import the to regard with ers steer gradually would which issues, these on lobby to France expected opposition tothe narrative Central presented by EU member states from and EU the by imposed sanctions the to resistant more cooperation although some of them avoided sanctions by virtue of having plants having of virtue by sanctions avoided them of some although thus Europe.has Russiain influence US undermine and relations atlantic probably However,it demands. its fulfilling in far that go to able and willing be US,to the and countries European other to ties economic and Europe.Eastern and and II), for example, tosupport Russian propagandaonrecenthistory, in traininga partner Rsi epce Fac (hc gladly (which France expected Russia ,

‑ ‑ ‑ 33 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 34 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 30 29 while also criticising individual elements of theNovember 2018while alsocriticisingindividual elementsof initiative Rus the and companies French between cooperation curtailed the with Foreign Ministry, aswell asbetween thedirectors for internationalcoop as such Paris, in place taking events in Putin’sparticipation President Russia praised France for its proactive approach to efforts to create inter UN General Assembly resolution on the declaration of no first placement placement no first UN General Assembly resolution on the declaration of the commemoration of the end of World War I in November 2018, the November 2018, WorldWar I in of end the of commemoration the prin the for respect the and sovereignty state of protection the on tees sus bltrl oslain wr hl bten eintd French designated between held were consultations bilateral issues, information and cyber national regulations on the principles of president’s special envoy on Syria, the envoy on Libya) and the Russian the and Libya) envoyon the Syria, envoyon president’sspecial funeral of former President Jacques Chirac in September 2019, and the and September 2019, in Chirac Jacques President former of funeral by Paris on the issue, mainly for what it considered insufficient guaran insufficient considered it what for mainly issue, the on Parisby sian arms sector due to the EU sanctions. EU the to due sector arms sian summit of the so‑called Normandy Formatsummit of onUkraineinDecember 2019, eration at their defence ministries. defence their at eration the Iran, on director Ministry’sForeignpolitical the (including officials international On gestures. political friendly as considered be could July 2019. in announced strategy defence space French the of overparts also some and space, outer weaponsin of support for Russia’s withFranceoverdissatisfaction itslackof 2018draft non ciple of dissatisfied was Kremlin the time same the at Yet about. complained

saeet y h Mnsr o Frin far o te usa Fdrto of Federation Russian the of Affairs Foreign of Ministry the by statement A Rus on MFA Russian the of Department Press and Information the by ‘Comment 5 August 2019 www.mid.ru. gei Lavrov at a meeting in the 2+2 format in September 2019. See See September 2019. in 2+2 format the in a meeting at Lavrov gei Sergey Lavrov’s statement and answer to a media question at a news conference conference a news at question a media to answer and statement Lavrov’s Sergey following Russian following tember 9, 2019’ ber 2019, www.mid.ru/en. ber 2019, sia’s Approach to the French Initiative “Paris Call for Trust and Security in Cyber in Security and Trust space”’ for Call “Paris Initiative French the to Approach sia’s , the Ministry of Foreign, the Ministry of the Affairs Russian Federation, 20 November 2018, ‑interference ininternalaffairs. . In a toned . , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, 9 Septem Federation, Russian the of Affairs Foreign of Ministry the , - French ministerial French ‑down form, this criticism was reiterated by Minister Ser Minister by reiterated was criticism this form, ‑down - level talks in the 2+2 format, Moscow, Sep Moscow, 2+2 format, the in talks level 30 29 Moscow alsoexpressed its ‘Foreign minister ‑security, ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ 32 31 ocws oiy n hs ra Ti hs en cnwegd y repre by acknowledged been has This area. this in policy Moscow’s In Syria, Russia has continued to provide its political and military sup military and political its provide to continued has Russia In Syria, ques “If the July 2020: in said Parly,turn, Florence in Minister Defence Rus our of goodwill of degree the gauge truly to able be to waiting I am “I have January 2020: in said who Lecointre, François General Forces, influencing France of traces any find to difficult been has Howeverit to bring about progress in the so‑called political process in Syria, and Syria, in process political so‑called the in progress about bring to province Idlib in strikes air of a wave (including population civilian the imme bring cannot dialogue of type yet,this wenot that but that realise the from results tangible some been alreadyhave there whether is tion rather than someone who wants to use these crises for destabilisation. for crises these use to wants who someone than rather rejected Macron’s 2017 initiative to create a new international contact international a new create to initiativeMacron’s 2017 rejected unilat its to (in addition ground the on situation the managed has it need the emphasising while May 2017, in line’ a ‘red as this to referred repeat from regime Syrian the prevented it has Nor autumn 2019). in port tothe andhas carried out occasional attacksAssad regime targeting Republic African Central the of case specific the wemake that proposed for civilians to have access to humanitarian aid). Moscow has also failed failed Moscowalso aid). has humanitarian have to to civiliansaccess for group on Syria. An important thing for Paris,however,for thing presence Syria.An important its on was group sian colleagues. At this stage, though, it remains quite difficult to see”. to difficult quite remains it though, stage, At this colleagues. sian Armed the of Staff of Chief the including side, French the of sentatives eral actions) through agreements with Turkey and Iran. It also It also Iran. and Turkey with agreements through actions) eral weapons chemical using edly it”. continue to able Weeffects.be diate must dialogue thatFrancehasinitiatedwithRussia, I willanswer very frankly at the quadrilateral summit (with the participation of the leaders of of leaders the of participation the (with summit quadrilateral the at crises, solving in a partner Russia’sas probing goodwill for a laboratory

Activity, 2012–2020’ Activity, 2018 and then again in May 2019. See See 2019. May in again then and 2018 The Assad regime used chemical weapons at least four times in the first half of first the in times four least at weapons chemical used regime Assad The L. Lagneau, 360.com donné de «résultats tangibles»’ de «résultats donné . ‘Selon Mme Parly, la relance du dialogue avec la Russie n’a pas encore encore n’a pas Russie la avec dialogue du relance la Parly, Mme ‘Selon , The Arms Control Association, www.armscontrol.org. Association, Control The Arms , 32 , Zone Militaire Opex360, Militaire Zone , (despite the fact that President Macron President that fact the (despite ‘Timeline of Syrian Chemical Weapons Weapons Chemical Syrian of ‘Timeline 31 2 July 2020, 2 July 2020, www.opex de facto ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ -

35 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 36 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 Vimont (although officially the EU and its member states were sceptical were states member its and EU the officially (although Vimont As France has found itself increasingly at odds with Turkey, it cannot Turkey,it with odds at increasingly itself found has As France 34 33 Iran, Russia, which supports the French and EU position on preserving preserving on position EU and French the supports which Russia, Iran, Moscow,although In Libya – Paris,has like Russian proposals to involve European (including French) companies and US sanctions. Paris has also been watching rather helplessly as Russian as helplessly rather watching been also has Paris sanctions. US Germany, Russia and Turkey) on Syria in Istanbul in October 2018, but October 2018, in Istanbul in Syria on Turkey) Germany,and Russia the Central African Republic, which has seen a growing presence and presence a growing seen has which Republic, African Central the unilateral circumvent to steps any taken not has agreement, JCPOA the and dialogue extensivedeveloping been have countries two latter the wasallowedFrance that bymeant this means no haveto say the a real in interests on the continent. This particularly concerns countries such as such countries concerns particularly This continent. the on interests (usu regimes authoritarian local for support and sales arms resources, legitimate government of Fayez as‑Sarraj. In this case, Paris has openly has Paris case, In this Fayezas‑Sarraj. governmentof legitimate particularly the sub the particularly fluence onthesituationby playing pres (alsothroughthedirect military warfunds inrebuildingSyria damage, from assuggested by Ambassador a Russian of danger the about spoken in interest French hand, other On the Syrianproblem. the of settlement expands its presence in Africa, a continent of special importance to it, to importance special of a continent Africa, in presence its expands cooperation).On the issue of cooperation (includingenergyandmilitary Moscow with tensions Ankara –supportdespite from here,on count as – the supported Turkey,has with which a game mercenaries) its of ence France’sin marginalising been has Russia Haftar – Khalifa Marshal of as well as expanding economic activity by its protectors from Russia. from protectors its by activity economic expanding as well as activity by Russian theso‑calledWagner armedformations from group France’svital to detrimental been fact West)in havethe of critical ally country.the in objectives political Russian with aligned fully about it),

2020,www.senat.fr. See A. Jouve, A. Jouve, See See Lévy, ambassadeur de France en Russie’ en de France ambassadeur Lévy, masqué à Bangui’ à masqué ber 2020, www.rfi.fr; A. Barluet, A. Barluet, www.rfi.fr; ber 2020, ‘Point de situation extérieure et intérieure sur la Russie – Audition de M. Pierre de M. Pierre Audition Russie – la sur intérieure et extérieure de situation ‘Point ‘Russie: quelle stratégie en Afrique subsaharienne?’ Afrique en stratégie quelle ‘Russie: , Le Figaro, 21 December 2020, www.lefigaro.fr. 21 December 2020, Figaro, Le , ‑Saharan area. Russian exploitation of its natural its of exploitation Russian area. ‑Saharan ‘Avec les mercenaires de Wagner, Moscou avance avance Moscou de Wagner, mercenaires ‘Avec les , the Senate of the French Republic, 3 June 3 June Republic, French the of Senate the ‑Turkish condominium in Libya. in condominium ‑Turkish de facto supported the forces the supported , RFI, 21 Novem RFI, , 34 33 ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ,

Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s regime and civil society in Belarus, which has which Belarus, in Lukashenka’sAlyaksandrsociety civil and regime (Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France), which took place in Paris in Paris in place took which France), and Germany Ukraine, (Russia, 35 The Armenian Macron, who has publicly declared that solving the ‘Ukrainian problem’‘Ukrainian the solving that declared publicly has who Macron, December 2019.However, of (the announcement progress minor despite Russia. into Crimea occupied of integration the continuing and Donbas Russian In Ukraine, On Belarus, France, although clearly less active than on Ukraine, has Ukraine, on than active less clearly although France, On Belarus, it did not result in a breakthrough, and some of the agreements have agreements the of some and a breakthrough, in result not did it efforts, Macron’sintense Despite elections). parliamentary the 2019 in normalisation a full and sanctions of lifting the for a prerequisite is in August 2020. However Russia has supported the Lukashenka regime regime Lukashenka the supported Howeverhas August 2020.Russia in implemented. been not permanent mediator in the conflict) and a politically active Armenian active a politically and conflict) the in mediator permanent Volodymyrpowerof victory the (after Ukraine in Zelensky, perceived as the of part occupied the of residents the to passports issuing by ple further exchanges of prisoners of war and a local withdrawal of forces), withdrawalof a local and war of prisoners of exchanges further been protesting since the authorities rigged the presidential elections presidential the rigged authorities the since protesting been Russia’s(despite arrange to been has success only,limited his basically upre te Us fot t etbih pltcl ilge between dialogue political a establish to efforts EU’s the supported diaspora in France, caused great concern and prompted Paris to engage to Paris prompted and concern great caused France, in diaspora (the formal Group Minsk OSCE the of France’sco‑chairmanship to due FormatNormandy so‑called the of summit another resistance) earlier of a change on hopes particular pinned has Russia, with relations of conflict the to access observers’ OSCE restricted and regime ceasefire at the same time, it has accused the West of interference in the country.the in interference Westof the accused has it time, same the at and madenoeffort toforce itintoa genuine dialoguewithitsopponents; elections,presidential followedthe in a ‘pragmatist’, by faction’shis win Ukraine’ssovereignty,violated exam forhas itself Moscow while area,

23 December 2020, www.osw.waw.pl. 2020, 23 December See K. Nieczypor, K. Nieczypor, See appearances. The impasse over the war in Donbass’], Donbass’], in war the over impasse The appearances. ‑Azerbaijani war in Nagorno in war ‑Azerbaijani ‘Gra pozorów. Impas w sprawie wojny w Donbasie’ wojny w sprawie Impas pozorów. ‘Gra ‑backed separatists have continued to violate the violate to continued have separatists ‑backed 35 ‑Karabakh in autumn 2020, autumn 2020, in ‑Karabakh oetre OSW Komentarze [‘A game of , no. 370, 370, no. , ‑ 37 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 38 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 Armenian diaspora lobby in France. in lobby diaspora Armenian (one of the most spectacular ones was the attempt by Russian military military Russian by attempt the was ones spectacular most the of (one 37 36 Russia has not made it any easier for Macron to achieve a normalisa achieve to Macron for easier any it made not has Russia the arrest of a French officer serving in NATO structures on charges of of charges NATOon in structures serving officer a French of arrest the assassins of a group by base a logistical as territory French of use the Europein aggressive actions its continued also has it as relations of tion towardsTurkey,attitude critical supa highly which and Armenians the towards friendliness overt demonstrated but conflict, the in mediate to murdered a French teacher in October 2020. in teacher a French murdered pro the by made France and Macron President towards ments a French missions from and Skripal Sergei expatriate Russian assassinate to agents intelligence in active diplomacy(includingPresidentMacronhimself,who attempted ported Azerbaijan). Moscow, however, tolerated the Azerbaijani offensive, leader of Russia’s of leader Chechnya KadyrovRamzanexpatriate a Chechen after a using daughter his face for Macron, and a politically troublesome one given the influential the given one troublesome a politically and Macron, for face a Russian presence. In doing military leadingtotheestablishmentof fire from Russia’s GRU military intelligence service between 2014 and 2018; and 2018; 2014 between service intelligenceRussia’s military from GRU so, it effectively ignored France’s role; this was also a kind of slap in the in slap of a kind also wasFrance’s effectivelythis ignored so,it role; spying for Russia in August 2020 in Russia for spying come to light (e.g. an incident involving an attempt to intercept trans intercept to an attempt involving (e.g. an incident light to come hostile targeted also has Russia March 2018). in Kingdom United the of Nagorno in presence Armenian the of actions directly at France, as evidenced by espionage scandals that havethat scandals espionageby evidenced as France, at directly actions elimination complete the of threat the with faced when only was it and

27 October2020, www.reuters.com. Cehn edr as arn tne n atos nprs terrorists’ inspires cartoons on stance Macron says leader ‘Chechen See See www.bbc.com; J. Follorou, J. Follorou, www.bbc.com; cialisés dans les assassinats ciblés’ assassinats les dans cialisés P. Reltien, F. Cognard, Radio France, France, Radio F. Cognard, P. Reltien, liaisons dangereuses’ liaisons ‘Russia ‘tried to spy on France in space’ – French minister’ , France Culture, France , novichok ‑Italian satelliteby a Russian spy satellitein 2017; ‘La Haute ‘La chemical warfare agent on the territory territory the on agent warfare chemical , Le Monde, Le , 36 ‘Espionnage: entre la France et la Russie, des des Russie, la et France la entre ‘Espionnage: ), as well as the confrontational state confrontational the as well as ), - Savoie, camp de base d’espions russes spé russes d’espions de base camp Savoie, www.france 2020, 6 November ‑Karabakh that it dictated a cease dictated it that ‑Karabakh 4 December 2019,4 December www.lemonde.fr; 37 , BBC, 7 September 2018, 7 September 2018, BBC, , ‑Kremlin culture.fr. , Reuters, Reuters, , ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ 38 This attitude from Moscow can be explained by its expectation that Pres that expectation its by explained be Moscowcan from attitude This that: (1) the EU must concretise its policy towards Russia, shifting awayshifting Russia,towards policy its concretise must EU (1) the that: ing to implement a policy of containment towards Russia by refraining refraining by Russiatowards containment of a policy implement to ing can Grushko Aleksandr Minister Foreign Deputy Russian by interview) of policy the Macron’sin changesident real into translate should efforts from the so‑called ‘five Mogherini principles’; (2) NATO must stop try stop (2) NATOmust principles’; Mogherini ‘five so‑called the from both France and the EU as a whole towardsa whole as EU the Russia,and France evenboth relations before also be applied to France and its President’s initiatives. Grushko stated President’sGrushkoinitiatives. its and France to applied be also (in a February 2020 publicly out set EU the with partnership to a return for conditions Russian of formula the context, In this normalised. are

Another shadow was cast over Russianover cast was shadow Another wih ea i Fbur 22) bt e a sil o alwd to allowed not still was he but 2021), February in began (which vate ends of members of the Russian elite. It may also have been have also It may elite. Russian the of members of ends vate worked for the investment fund Baring Vostok, in connection with Vostok,connection Baring in investmentfund the workedfor The Philippe Delpal case Delpal The Philippe to house arrest), and in November 2020 to his release, albeit only albeit release, his to November 2020 in and arrest), house to ner. Western observers see the case as a typical example of the in the of example a typical as case the see Westernner.observers who Delpal, Philippe entrepreneur French of February 2019 in rest leaveRussia. trial pending released being after proceedings the in participated pre (in August 2019, detention his strumental use of law enforcement agencies and courts for the pri the for courts and agencies enforcement law of use strumental self in Delpal’s defence first led to a relaxation of the conditions of of conditions the of a relaxation to led Delpal’sfirst defencein self efforts by the French Foreign Ministry and President Macron him Macron President and Ministry Foreign French the by efforts an agreement to pay a kind of ‘extortion he money’).payon, to then of From a kind an agreement (effectively ‘settlement’ disadvantageous a into entered he after a bargaining chip for the Kremlin in its relations with Paris. Intense part business Russian a former with dispute financial and a legal See See tie levée’ tie ‘Russie: l’assignation à résidence du banquier français Philippe Delpal en par en Delpal Philippe français banquier du résidence à l’assignation ‘Russie: , Le Parisien, Le , 38 12 November 2020, www.leparisien.fr. 2020, 12 November ‑trial detention was converted was detention ‑trial ‑French relations by the ar the by relations ‑French ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ 39 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 40 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 “revising the approach imposed on them by the US”. the by them on imposed approach the “revising As Ambassador Vimont revealed, in reply to French proposals for areas for proposals French to replyrevealed, Vimontin As Ambassador 39 40 very interested in them. in interested very European partners, whom it considered as potentially willing to make to willing potentially as considered it whom partners, European attitude unceremonious Moscow’srather for reason the that It appears great Russian typical was above, described as Paris, towards downslowed has dialogue strategic the deepening of process the that talks of subject the been have to supposed was This them. discuss to rounding Navalny’s poisoning erupted. It should therefore be assumed be therefore It should Navalny’serupted. rounding poisoning not was side Russian the that suggesting while rights, human space, in includes Moscow,which towardsWashington’s policy of independent countries (3) European Moscow; with programmes cooperation to ing proposals for dialogue on the Arctic, civil nuclear energy,cooperation nuclear civil Arctic, the on dialogue for proposals a five presented until mid until groups working of creation the byfollowed be to expected was logue fact to test how far France was potentially prepared to go in breaching in go to prepared potentially was France far how test to fact return and flank eastern the on presence military its increasing from but due to the pandemic, the French visit to Moscow did not take place take not Moscowdid to visit French the pandemic, the to due but March 2020, for Ushakovscheduled and Vimont Ambassadors between ekn t nraie eain wt Rsi ms mk ter policies their make must Russia with relations normalise to seeking defence. In response to that, the French side decided to reiterate its reiterate to decided side French the that, to In response defence. side Russian the above), (see in 2019 submitted dialogue strategic of arrogance, consistent with its strategic culture and perception of its of perception and culture strategic its with consistent arrogance, a result. as dia for topics priority NATO.of within solidarity The exchange allied

‘Russia – Hearing of M. Pierre Vimont, the French President’s special envoy for the the for envoy special President’s French the Vimont, M. Pierre of Hearing ‘Russia – Е. Пудовкин, РБК, Defence and Armed Forces Committee’ Forces Armed and Defence eign Affairs, published by the Embassy of France in the United Kingdom, 19 Febru Kingdom, United the in France of Embassy the by published Affairs, eign ary 2020, uk.ambafrance.org; ‘Audition de M. Pierre Vimont…’, de M. Pierre ‘Audition uk.ambafrance.org; ary 2020, Affairs, Foreign Senate the before Russia, with trust and security of architecture 16 February 2020, www.rbc.ru. ‑July 2020, just over a month before the political crisis sur crisis political the before a month over just ‑July 2020, ‘МИД назвал три условия для улучшения отношений с Европой’ отношений улучшения для условия три назвал ‘МИД ‑point plan, but it focused on the area of security and security of area the on focused it but plan, ‑point 40 This showed that Moscow’s intention was in Moscow’swas showedthat intention This , The French Ministry for Europe and For and Europe for Ministry The French , 39 op. cit. ‑power ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ , 4. Macron’s advantages from Russia’s4. Macron’sfrom perspective advantages (disadvantages). 41 That is because they partly corresponded both with Russia’swith perception both corresponded partly they because is That Macron’s diagnosis of the present, especially his criticism of the alleged the of criticism his especially present, the Macron’sof diagnosis US) Westthe abovethe Moscow’sall (and hold to seeksnarrative, which France’s on statements aforementioned Macron’s President of Many For example, Macron’s narrative includes a thesis that the Westpur the has that Macron’sForexample, a thesis narrativeincludes influ been therefore has Macron under France towards policy Russian United States, which has acted against European interests.European against acted has whichStates, United tially driving it out of Europe and pushing NATO’sthe pushing to and enlargement Europe of out it driving tially interests. political its tiveand Moscow.pleased have must Vimont, Ambassador by presented as tions responsible for the current profound crisis in mutual relations. mutual in crisis profound current the for responsible with line in entirely almost is facts, historical contradicts which ment, policy – according to Macron – has been a product of pressure from the from pressure of a product been has Macron – to according policy – its from stemmed however, it time, same the At concessions. political favourable (advantages); and increasingly over time, by his weaknesses his byover time, increasingly and (advantages);favourable growing impatience and disappointment with Macron and his actions. his and Macron with disappointment and impatience growing sued a wrong policy towards Russia since the end of the Cold War,Cold the towardspolicy sued a wrong Russia of end the since essen east, which hasalarmedMoscow andantagonised Europe. Moreover, this Kremlin’sthe narra of elements with as well as situation, global of the assessment current its and Europe, of that history,including recent of as perceives Moscow which attitudes, and views his by both enced aligns with Russian interests. Indeed, it serves to strengthen those in those strengthen to serves also it China’ Indeed, interests. Russian of with aligns arms the into it ‘push and Russia isolate to attempts elabora detailed more their and Russia, with relations EU’s the and problematic as considers it which policy French of features the and

‘Emmanuel Macron in his own words…’, own his in Macron ‘Emmanuel op. cit. 41 This assess This ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ 41 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 42 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 ‑Western’order. The resulting call for Europe to develop its self its develop to Europe for call The resulting reasons strategic underlying the ignores which vision, unrealistic This Macron’s pessimistic diagnosis of a crisis in the Western community is Westerncommunity the in a crisis of Macron’s diagnosis pessimistic Macron’s other statements suggesting that Europe should hold discus hold should Europe that suggesting statements Macron’sother weakening (or ideally destroying) NATO. Moscow has for many years many for NATO.has destroying)Moscow (or ideally weakening November 2018). tary) from Europe, driving a wedge between the US and the EU, and EU, the and US the between a wedge driving Europe, from tary) advocating been have who countries Western in debate ongoing the ing a ‘European army’ (for example, President Putin spoke about this in this about spoke Putin President example, (for army’ a ‘European ing build of ideas emerging the supported also has Moscow implemented. At the it. with relations friendly develop and ‘independence’ its regain Macron’sin should, it domination whose from US, the at aimed ically West of era the of end the proclaiming boldly been has years, recent lin – which acts through friendly experts, among others – as it seeks to seeks it as others – among experts, friendly through acts which lin – goals, which include ousting US influence and presence (especially mili (especially presence and influence US ousting include goals,which lcig ptnil ute epnin f etr srcue t the to structures Western of expansion further potential a blocking behind the anti sions with Russia about its geopolitical demands may also be a matter a matter be also may demands geopolitical its about Russia with sions expressed have experts and diplomats politicians, Russian time, same disappointment thatEuropean declarationsonthismatter have notbeen diktat’, ‘American the from free break must Europe that emphasised Moscow’sstrategic of several to corresponds this itself; free opinion, ‘post a new of dawn the and relations international in dominance ern China. with cooperation its loosening of theneedto‘pay Russia’convince theEUandUSof for hazyprospects Beijing. with cooperation its deepening further from it prevent to order ain f uul iudrtnig’ n hs pny se whether asked openly has and misunderstandings’ mutual of cation a ‘clarifi for called has president Moscow.The French for interest of also partly consistent with the Russian narrative, which, especially in especially which, narrative, Russian the with consistent partly also a ( de facto unconditional) normalisation of relations with Moscow in Moscow with relations of normalisation unconditional) ‑Western Russian ‑Chinese ‘quasi ‑alliance’, aids the Krem ‑reliance is in fact polit fact in is ‑reliance ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑Soviet area, which is one of Moscow’s goals. strategic of one is which ‑Sovietarea, 43 42 The same applies to the issue of arms control. The Russian side appre side The Russian control. arms of issue the to applies The same NATO’s NATO’s intermediate their of elimination the on treaty Russian‑US post the of rest the and Europe Eastern in influence of sphere Russian that France was the only NATO member state to signal its readiness to readiness its signal to NATOstate only member the was France that et f intermediate of ment the as therefore and region, hold talks on the Russian offer of a mutual moratorium on the deploy the on moratorium a mutual of offer Russian the on talks hold Moscow.with it discussing in problem September 2019. by the US in response to Moscow’s violations. This happened despite happened This Moscow’sviolations. to response in US the by shorter ciated (while at the same time expressing its bitterness about) the fact fact the about) bitterness its expressing time same the at (while ciated no sees he that implying demand, a Russian is Ukraine) (including east as France’s consent to curtailing the sovereignty of the countries in the in countries the of sovereignty the curtailing to France’sconsent as

‘20 ans après Poutine: une conversation entre Vimont, Tenzer, Ackerman’ Tenzer, Vimont, entre conversation une Poutine: après ‘20 ans ‘of course’, and we know very well that Moscow won’t like it; and that’s why we “Since it is in our interest to settle frozen conflicts, perhaps with a broader agenda agenda a broader with perhaps conflicts, frozen settle to interest our in is it “Since See See vein, albeit a little more mildly: “The root of the problem is obviously the Russian Russian the obviously is problem the of “The root mildly: more a little albeit vein, 5 October 2020, www.mid.ru. 2020, 5 October That is what it’s about. I mean: what are their main concerns? What are ours? How How ours? are What concerns? main their are what I mean: about. it’s what is That Moscow, October 5, 2020’ October 5, Moscow, words…’, own his in Macron Continent, European the in membership for requests their with ahead go we should Georgia: Union, NATO? […] We get immediately divided because there are those who say: say: who those are there because divided immediately get We[…] NATO? Union, ‘Emmanuel together?”. on work we can issues What together? them approach we can the about actually it Is need? [Putin] he does guarantees What positions. our clarify EU and NATO guaranteeing that they will not expand into a particular territory? territory? a particular into expand not will they that guaranteeing NATO and EU have to move in that direction, because you have to move forward; and on the other other the on and forward; move to have you because direction, that in move to have Europeans between debate this have we and deliberate We[…] way. static pletely demand for a sphere of influence and thus a kind of Yalta 2.0, which is indeed totally totally indeed is which Yalta 2.0, of a kind thus and influence of a sphere for demand and allies all the time, basically every time we ask ourselves about Ukraine, about about Ukraine, about ourselves ask we time every basically time, the all allies and the meeting with members of the Association of European Businesses in Russia, Russia, in Businesses European of Association the of members with meeting the and region the in conflicts frozen the all at look we issue, Ukrainian the just than unacceptable. However, I would like to stress that we are all thinking in a com in thinking all are we that stress to like I would However, unacceptable. shouldn’t cause irritation and therefore it’s better to wait for better days”. better for we wait to that it’sbetter say therefore rightly and who irritation cause shouldn’t pragmatists the and cautious the timid, the are there side ‘Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s remarks and answers to questions during during questions to answers and remarks Lavrov’s Sergey Minister ‘Foreign ‑range missiles (INF), following its termination in February 2019 in termination followingits (INF), missiles ‑range de facto 7 May 2020, www.legrandcontinent.eu. rejection of Russian proposals, which would in practice in would which proposals, Russian of rejection 43 This was linked to the expiry in August 2019 of the of August 2019 in expiry the to linked was This rne isls n uoe wih a md in made was which Europe, in missiles ‑range , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Federation, Russian the of Affairs Foreign of Ministry the , op. cit. de facto Ambassador Vimont has spoken in a similar a similar in spoken has Vimont Ambassador or even formal recognition of the of recognition formal even or 42 The Kremlin maythis interpret The Kremlin ‑range and ‑range , Le Grand Grand Le , S. Bélaïch, S. Bélaïch, ‑ ‑ ‑ 43 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 44 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 ‑Ukrainian conflict. Moscow clearly hoped that France would put pres put would France that hoped clearly Moscow conflict. ‑Ukrainian (and NATO), regularly endorsing the consensus to extend the sanctions the extend to consensus the NATO),endorsing (and regularly The list of priorities for dialogue and cooperation with Moscow formu Moscow with cooperation and dialogue for priorities of The list which is increasingly falling behind the global leaders. Moreover,leaders.coop global the behind falling increasingly is which France under his rule has not breached allied solidarity within the EU the within solidarity allied breached not has rule his under France state positive numerous Macron’s view, of point Kremlin’s the From 5. Macron’s disadvantages from Russia’sfrom 5. Macron’sperspective disadvantages to a limited extent, especially in the EU and NATOand EU In particular,forums.the in especially extent, a limited to threatening theirsecurity. somepotentially Furthermore, thetransfer of Westernagainst thus use states, could it capabilities acquiring Russia to this listfully correspondstoMoscow’s prioritiesincludingthetransfer of h flimn o te is areet wt rgr t te Russian the to regard with agreements Minsk the of fulfilment the interests, but even if such pressure has been applied by France, it has it France, by applied been has pressure such if even but interests, has Macron time, same At the them. curtail to efforts explicit any made ments towards Russia have only translatedintoconcreteactionsby Paris in technologies) advanced (or other technologies digital of field the in Moreover,account. into cooperation demands mentioning and interests con local and regional resolving in Russia’srole recognising important Russia’sin Europe in favour. lated by Macron is also certain to please the Kremlin. This is because is This Kremlin. the please to certain also is Macron by lated capabilities missile of haveasymmetry existing the perpetuate servedto flicts logically imposestheneedtoseeka ‘compromise’ by takingRussian so far provedineffective. far so Moscow’swith line in agreements the with comply to Ukraine on sure declared that any easing of sanctions would be formally conditional on conditional formally be would sanctions of easing any that declared dual lead may engineering genetic and biotechnology computers, quantum intelligence, security, artificial digital as areas sensitive such in eration cutting against Russia introduced every six months since 2014; Paris has not even circumventthem. to attempts to lead or Russia, against ‑use technologies may either require the lifting of some sanctions some of lifting the require either may technologies ‑use ‑edge solutions to improve and modernise the Russian economy,Russian the modernise and improve to solutions ‑edge ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ 45 44 violating human rights (December 2020, applied to Russian officials officials Russian to applied 2020, (December rights human violating applied Weapons(October 2018, ConventionChemical the of violations Moscow has also complained that French banks are reluctant to finance finance to reluctant are banks French that complained also Moscowhas Mor Russia’s weaknesses, particularly its economic ones, and its gradually its and ones, economic its Russia’sparticularly weaknesses, fron many on France and Europe Russian WeaponsChemical PartnershipforUseImpunity the against of initiated for mechanism sanctions EU the regimes: created newly under Russia the institutions of dialogue between France and Russia have not been not have Russia and France between dialogue of institutions the entities and individuals against and July 2020), in entities Russian to cyberfor RussianJanuary 2019), to in entities intentions into question. into intentions help circumvent the sanctions risk. sanctions the circumvent help law.international under legitimacy fully revived, which from Moscow’s point of view has called Paris’sreal called has view Moscow’sof point from revived, which fully Some of Macron’s statements certainly have not been to Moscow’s liking, to been not haveMacron’s certainly statements of Some by the Assad regime in Syria) for its alleged ‘unilateralism‘ and lack of of lack ‘unilateralism‘and alleged its for Syria) in regime Assad the by by FrancebackinJanuary 2018 (in responsetorepeatedchemicalattacks either. In his keynote texts, he has listed Russia among the non the Russiakeynoteeither.among listed texts, has In his he would which months, six within prepared be would projects such of financing joint for mechanisms new that December 2019 in (CEFIC) cil and authoritarian states pursuing assertive policies that harm the West,the harm that policies assertivepursuing states authoritarian and Coun Trade and Industrial Financial, Economic, the of meeting another at announced was it reason, this For Russia. against sanctions EU and International the criticised also Moscow March 2021). in others among

ектов’ See See see details, more For whether these plans have been implemented. been have plans these whether Lavrov’s remarks and answers to questions…’, questions…’, to answers and remarks Lavrov’s did that, for example, while also criticising France’s use of the initiative to put pres put to initiative the of use France’s criticising also while example, for that, did Weapons’ Chemical of sure on Russia over the Navalny assassination attempt. See ‘Foreign Minister Sergey Sergey Minister ‘Foreign See attempt. assassination Navalny the over Russia on sure eover, furthersanctionsagainst Francehasbacked theimpositionof ‘Россия и Франция запустят механизм совместного финансирования про финансирования совместного механизм запустят и Франция ‘Россия ‑French economic cooperation projects, fearing violations of US of violations fearing projects, cooperation economic ‑French , РИА Новости, РИА , ‘The International Partnership against Impunity for the Use Use the for Impunity against Partnership ‘The International 10 December 2019, www.ria.ru. There is no information on , www.noimpunitychemicalweapons.org. Minister Lavrov Lavrov Minister www.noimpunitychemicalweapons.org. , ts and issues. He has also pointed to pointed also has He issues. and ts 44 45 Moreover, as mentioned before, mentioned Moreover,as op. cit. ‑attacks(July 2019, applied ‑Western ‑ ‑ ‑ 45 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 46 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 47 46 view, it has therefore not only been a partner, but also a challenge for a challenge also but a partner, been only not therefore has view,it has Macron regions. key from disengage countries these when vacuum Moscow’s impatience has also clearly been growing over the failure to failure the overgrowing been clearly also has Moscow’simpatience with Putin by the French media (the Russian president’s‘explanations‘ (the Russian media French the by Putin with France and Europe. Moscow has also been irked by French criticism French by irked been also has Moscow Europe. and France translate French statements on a “new architecture of trust and security” trustandsecurity” translate Frenchstatementsona “new architectureof RussianNovember 2020).earlythe vaccineSputnik V in Moscow of tion in Europe into concrete political initiatives.political concrete into Europe in light. an unfavourable in In his politics. French to importance particular of a continent Africa, in Russia’spresence at and concern activity growinghis of secret no made rel the exploit to ability its as well as China, on dependence increasing publicly about the crackdown on artists (such as the filmmaker Oleg filmmaker the as (such artists on crackdown the about publicly Sentsov)Russianand activists, Moscow examplecallingfor or account to saw these as deliberate leaks by the French side intended to cast Russia cast to intended side French the by leaks deliberate as these saw simi on the on out speaking Macron including standards, democratic of violations of after the aforementioned attack on Navalny.on attack aforementioned the after a security fill to especially and countries, Western of weakness ative

As Lavrov said in a June 2020 article, for example: “We welcome the initiative by by initiative the welcome “We example: for article, a June 2020 in said As Lavrov On the last issue, we can even speak of a rhetorically aggressive reaction from from reaction aggressive rhetorically a of speak even can we issue, last the On Moscow. In particular, in response to a joint statement on Navalny by the French French the by Navalny on statement a joint to response in In particular, Moscow. Ministry SpokeswomanMinistry on Zakharova Maria the joint statement by the French and German foreign ministers on the situation with Alexey Navalny’ Alexey with situation the on ministers foreign German President Emmanuel Macron to create a system of European security which would would which security European of a system create to Macron Emmanuel President Lavrov’s Sergey Minister ‘Foreign See comments. critical made Minister also www.mid.ru. himself 2020, Lavrov 7 October Federation, Russian the of Affairs Foreign possible to conduct ‘business as usual’ with Berlin and Paris”. Paris”. and Berlin with usual’ as ‘business conduct to possible commit their on Berlin and Paris by statements earlier the to contrary Union, pean Zakharova warned Paris and Berlin, saying: “By all appearances, France and Ger and France appearances, all “By saying: Berlin, and Paris warned Zakharova remarks and answers to questions…’, questions…’, to answers and remarks ment to partnership with Russia. For our part, we reaffirm that if our colleagues colleagues our if that reaffirm we part, our For Russia. with partnership to ment anti the heading now are many are willing to revise this course towards confrontation and give up their attempts attempts their up give and confrontation towards course this revise to willing are Maria spokeswoman Ministry Foreign Russian ministers, foreign German and to do this, we will draw our own conclusions. At any rate, we do not consider it consider not do we rate, At any conclusions. own our draw will willing not we are this, If they do to dialogue. our normalise to possible still is it us, to dictate to larly irritated by the disclosure of some details of Macron’stalks of details some of disclosure the by irritated larly Navalny case, and a reported request for support in the produc the in support for request a reported and Navalnycase, ‑Russian coalition that is taking shape in the Euro the in shape taking is that coalition ‑Russian op. cit. 47 46 The Kremlin has been has The Kremlin ‘Comment by Foreign Foreign by ‘Comment , the Ministry of Ministry the , ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ ‘shine’ or to show some kind of quick initiative, to hit the domestic polit domestic the hit initiative,to quick of kind some show‘shine’ to or 49 48 The French side has also been aware of Russia’s less than positive inten Russia’spositive than less of aware been also has side The French Moscow. For example, during the escalation of the Karabakh conflict Karabakh the of escalation the during example, Moscow.For hc i sd () notntl, oiis s fe aot h dsr to desire the about often is politics Unfortunately, (…) sad. is which seek to pretends only and appearances of sake the for mainly acts who EU, to confirm leadership, etc. This is sad”. is This leadership, etc. confirm EU,to US and French colleagues over the past few days, as well as in contacts in as well as days,few past the over colleagues French and US Consequently, negative assessments of Macron as a phony politician a phony as Macron of assessments negativeConsequently, tions in its approach to Macron’s initiatives. As Ambassador Vimont As Ambassador initiatives. Macron’s to approach its in tions ical jackpot, to reinforce positions in multilateral organisations like the like organisations multilateral in positions reinforce to jackpot, ical its and authorities French the accused Lavrov Minister autumn 2020, in pro some by and media state Russian the in rightly concluded, Moscow was interested in them because it saw them saw it because them in interested wasMoscow concluded, rightly plays an important role. playsan important he said,hasbeenitsdesiretomonitorandbetterunderstand policiesand my with contacts my in showing clearly is pride “Wounded purposes: domestic forgestures empty of a policy pursuing of personally president in officials by statements public in appear to started time over have between Presi between discussions within the EU, including those on Africa, in which France which in Africa, on those including EU, the within discussions made been occasionally have which Russia, with relations in détente as a way to divide Europe, to exploit contradictions. The second reason, The second contradictions. exploit to Europe, divide to a way as

Affairs of the Russian Federation, 13 June 2020, www.mid.ru. 2020, 13 June Federation, Russian the of Affairs 19 November2020, www.mid.ru/en. ‘Audition de M. Pierre Vimont…’, de M. Pierre ‘Audition Moscow, channel, news RT from questions takes Lavrov Sergey Minister ‘Foreign oebr 9 2020’ 19, November not be designed to counterbalance Russia but would be built with our participa our with built be would but Russia counterbalance to designed be not de Gaulle’s 130 de Gaulle’s leadership”. collective and law international of article for for article to making practical steps to reshape the political mindset based on the principles principles the on based mindset political the reshape words to right steps the from practical move to making is to counts actually what day, the of end At the tion. La Revue Politique et Parlementaire et Politique Revue La dent Macron and President Putin on Nagorno on Putin President and Macron dent th anniversary, published on June 13, 2020’ June 13, on published anniversary, , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Federation, Russian the of Affairs Foreign of Ministry the , 49 op. cit. (France) on the occasion of Charles Charles of occasion the on (France) 48 ‘Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’sSergey ‘Foreign Minister Keln commentators, ‑Kremlin , the Ministry of Foreign Foreign of Ministry the , ‑Karabakh, ‑ ‑ ‑ 47 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 48 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021 Although we can probably speak of mutual disappointment on the on disappointment mutual of speak probably can we Although This has largely been due to the arrogant and aggressive attitude of of attitude aggressive and arrogant the to due been largely has This ocw wih a nvr nedd o ae n pltcl economic political, any make to intended never has which Moscow, vivendi with Moscow. That is because it is firmly anchored in his diagnosis of of diagnosis his in anchored firmly is it because Moscow.is with That Russia. with and Russia with relations in trust rebuild to efforts made has He a fundamental for calling France in power to came Macron Emmanuel tions or (and even less so) in relations between the European Union and EuropeanUnion betweenthe relations in evenso) (and less or tions areas.key selected in it with cooperation and dialogue tegic the stronger will probably be the desire of Paris to achieve a achieve to Paris of desire the be probably will stronger the More it. change to how of concept his and situation international the EU.the within also and and EU’spositions, US the a constraining been have countries, Western major other and US the not managed to achieve a positive breakthrough, either in bilateral rela bilateral in either breakthrough, achievea positive to managed not French intensifying by personally Putin Vladimir leader its con this of part An important politics. its and Europe of reconstruction part of the Russian and French authorities, President Macron does not does Macron President authorities, French and Russian the of part between differences the of advantage take to an opportunity provide factor here. At the same time, however, Moscow has hoped that it will it that hoped however,time,has Moscowsame At the here. factor bilateral contacts.bilateral However, yearspower, in has a half he and three after sensus on this issue within the EU and NATO, as well as the attitude of of attitude the NATO,as welland as EU the within issue this on sensus andabovestance, waiting for Frenchproposalstobecomemorespecific, of of face In the normalisation. achieve to order in concessions security or stra in engage and Russia, with relations normalise to will the was cept over, the more Russia harms Western, European and French interests, French and Western,European harms Russia more over,the appear to have completely abandoned the idea of détente in relations in détente of idea the abandoned completely have to appear West’sthe on impact con potential their see to policy.all, of lack the But SUMMARY arns ntaie, t a aotd rte psie n reactive and passive rather a adopted has it initiatives,Macron’s with Moscow.with ‑Russian modus ‑ ‑ ‑ ‑ Macron faces such challenges associalconflictsandeconomicproblems), Macron faces will also have a significant impact. havea significant also will However, theprospectsfor such developments largely depend onfactors tial hopes related to a possible opening of dialogue with Russia, includ Russia, with dialogue of opening a possible to related hopes tial pursue to difficult it make will that challenges some see hand one the US and China, of attitude the Russia, of policy foreign and situation tic in the area of security and defence, or to coordinate external policy), external coordinate to or defence, and security of area the in for (the prospects EU the in Developments security). of area the in ing in its external environment (including the Middle East, North Africa Africa North East, Middle the (including environment external its in his calls for greater independence from the US; but on the other, poten other, the on but US; the from independence greater for calls his mayon Macron (here, JoeBiden of newadministration the under policy overcoming internal crises and the fate of efforts to developto capabilities efforts of fate the overcomingand crises internal domes the both include These control. president’s French the outside and Eastern Europe), and – last but not least – in France itself (where itself France in least – not but last and – Europe), Eastern and MAREK MENKISZAK MAREK ‑ ‑ ‑ 49 POINT OF VIEW 3/2021