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„Rail Baltica“, VDB, 08. September 2020 Udo Sauerbrey Railistics Gmbh Railway Consulting and Engineering

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„Rail Baltica“, VDB, 08. September 2020 Udo Sauerbrey Railistics Gmbh Railway Consulting and Engineering Railway Consulting and Engineering „Rail Baltica“, VDB, 08. September 2020 Udo Sauerbrey Railistics GmbH © Railistics GmbH. All rights reserved. Infrastructure Manager How to organize RB as Infrastructure Manager? ▪ Expected IM costs p.a. € 37m (without CAPEX costs) ▪ Lean IM ▪ Single entity for coordination of traffic and maintenance ▪ Long term MAC(s) 2 Infrastructure Manager Unified rules: Standard – Back up - Emergency ▪ ERTMS driving orders ▪ Back up/shunting with signals ▪ Emergency orders ▪ Drivers / RU Information ▪ Infrastructure Information 3 Infrastructure Manager Cooperation vs. Competition „Competition“ today Competition with RB Cooperative approach 4 Passenger traffic Traffic types and numbers Ref. Type of service PAX1 Mainline daytime express passenger long distance (international) service at maximum line speed PAX2 Mainline night time long distance (international) express passenger service PAX3 Regional passenger service in every country and, if applicable cross-border regional passenger service PAX4 Airport shuttle services on the routes Riga Central station - Riga International Airport (RIX) and Helsinki Central station - Vantaa International Airport (HEL) PAX5 FinEst Link shuttle service on the route Tallinn Ullemiste - Helsinki central station - Vantaa International Airport (HEL) Overview number of trains rail passenger services Base Case Section 2030 2040 2050 Tallinn (Ulemiste) -Parnu 16 16 16 Parnu – Riga 16 16 16 Riga - Riga Airport (RIX) 16 16 16 Riga-RIX shuttle 72 72 72 Riga Airport (RIX) - Panevezys 16 16 16 Panevezys - Kaunas 16 18 20 Kaunas - Vilnius 11 12 12 Kauna - PL/LT Border 10 10 10 5 Passenger traffic Cooperation vs. Competition ▪ Additional pax services are possible but they require PSO ▪ Attention to competition with existing services ▪ Stations need to be arranged 6 Freight traffic What type of trains will use RB? CBA Business Plan Freight Forecast Freight Forecast Summary Summary (Million Tonnes) (Million Tonnes) Year 2026 2030 2035 Year 2026 2030 2035 Tallinn-Pärnu 0.7 4.7 5.8 Tallinn-Pärnu 0.7 4.7 5.8 Pärnu-Salaspils 0.7 4.7 5.8 Pärnu-Salaspils 0.7 4.7 5.8 Salaspils-Panevezys 0.8 5.7 7 Salaspils-Panevezys 1.0 5.9 7.5 Panevezys-Kaunas 0.8 5.7 7 Panevezys-Kaunas 1.0 5.9 7.5 Kaunas-PL/LT 1.8 12.2 14.9 Kaunas-PL/LT border 2.1 12.0 14.7 border Source EY: Map of freight carrier intensities per section (Base case) Kaunas-Vilnius 0.8 5.3 6.5 Kaunas-Vilnius 0.8 5.0 6.2 7 Freight traffic What type of trains will use RB? 8 Total costs costs per type Total costs per costs per truck Freight traffic Scenario From To EUR per train- roundtrip truck wa ggons round trip EUR round trip (EUR) km equivalent incl. 1 Herne Salasp. Wood/Furniture Year 1 Wood/Furniture 11,33 38.923 1.008,18 2.976,24 Competitive trains only Year 5 11,31 38.883 1.007,55 2.976,24 Year 10 11,23 38.601 1.003,14 2.976,24 2 Warsaw Muuga Container Year 1 Container 12,51 26.811 1.144,76 1.446,08 Year 5 12,51 26.811 1.144,76 1.446,08 Year 10 12,46 26.694 1.141,49 1.446,08 ▪ Includes door to door 3 Duisburg Salaspils (Moskau) Container Year 1 Container 9,81 34.384 1.355,10 3.062,64 Year 5 9,78 34.303 1.352,87 3.062,64 comparison Year 10 9,70 34.015 1.344,86 3.062,64 4 Rotterdam Salaspils (China) Container Year 1 Container 8,38 33.225 1.322,92 3.308,76 Year 5 8,35 33.102 1.319,51 3.308,76 Year 10 8,27 32.790 1.310,83 3.308,76 5 Kattowice Kaunas Container ▪ Includes handling costs Year 1 Container 13,73 24.791 1.088,63 1.118,72 Year 5 13,73 24.790 1.088,60 1.118,72 Year 10 12,24 22.087 1.013,53 1.118,72 6 Hamburg Muuga Container Year 1 Container 9,17 33.288 1.324,68 3.005,04 Year 5 9,15 33.235 1.323,19 3.005,04 ▪ Includes detailed rail cost Year 10 9,08 32.970 1.315,84 3.005,04 7 Ludwigshafen Muuga Chemicals Year 1 Chemicals 9,10 38.699 952,85 3.636,48 calculation based on single Year 5 9,09 38.645 952,08 3.636,48 Year 10 8,49 36.094 915,62 3.636,48 8 St endal Kaunas Wood operations rules across RB & Year 1 Wood 11,37 24.136 638,97 1.862,40 Year 5 11,36 24.118 638,79 1.862,40 Year 10 11,24 23.873 636,36 1.862,40 TAC of 1.50€ 9 Warsaw Salasp. Container Year 1 Container 13,55 20.172 960,35 998,24 Year 5 13,53 20.137 959,36 998,24 Year 10 13,44 20.001 955,60 998,24 10 Poznan Vilnius Container Year 1 Container 11,75 18.755 920,96 1.198,56 Year 5 11,74 18.752 920,90 1.198,56 Year 10 11,64 18.579 916,09 1.198,56 11 Muuga Vilnius Container Year 1 Container 12,94 17.539 887,20 865,44 Year 5 12,94 17.535 887,07 865,44 9 Year 10 12,94 17.534 887,07 865,44 Track Access Charges Attract competitive services TAC per train/km Recommended TAC as a result of TAC CBA Freight 1,50 Euro/km 10,00 Euro/Km Passenger 5,00 Euro/Km 0,50 Euro/km Average TAC in Europe Average 2,98 Euro TAC/ Km in freight 10 Source: pwc Terminals Access points 11 Recommendations Important target of all measures! ▪ Decide on national MAC commitment ▪ Decide on common operations rules ▪ Use robust and proven technology to simplify access 12 Railistics Customers: Founded in 2001 Shipping industry, Transport, Finance, Public Sector Locations: 50 Wiesbaden, Dessau, Berlin permanent employees the Netherlands, Turkey, Romania Worldwide projects 100% privately owned (Ltd.) Udo Sauerbrey Railistics GmbH Bahnhofstr. 36 65185 Wiesbaden Germany +49 611 447880 [email protected] railistics.com © Railistics GmbH. All rights reserved..
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