Status Signaling, Multiple Audiences, and the Incoherence of China’S Grand Strategy
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Limited Rebranding: Status Signaling, Multiple Audiences, and the Incoherence of China’s Grand Strategy DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Xiaoyu Pu Graduate Program in Political Science The Ohio State University 2012 Dissertation Committee: Randall Schweller, Advisor Bear Braumoeller Richard Herrmann Copyrighted by Xiaoyu Pu 2012 Abstract This dissertation provides a theoretical framework to analyze how a rising great power could signal its preferred status in the international hierarchy. Contrary to the familiar story of status conflict in power transitions, the status signaling of rising powers is a more complicated matter than is typically assumed. China, as a rising power, does not always maximize its status, and China is sending seemingly contradictory status signals. Why does a rising China send lower status signal? Why does an authoritarian China implement a seemingly incoherent grand strategy? This dissertation aims to provide a two-level theory of status signaling in international politics and to explain the seemingly incoherent grand strategy of an emerging world power, China. Status signaling is a special type of signaling in international politics that aims to demonstrate what kind of standing a state wants to have in the international society. China provides a useful set of cases for exploring the plausibility of status signaling arguments in international politics. This dissertation focuses on three “transformative moments” in Chinese foreign policy, including China’s aircraft carrier building, its initiatives during the Asian financial crisis of 1997, and its responses to the global financial crisis in 2008. In each case, the project analyzes China’s status signaling and role choices, including the trade-offs between status and responsibility, as well as the competing expectations from domestic and international audiences. The research design includes case studies, interviews, and content analysis. This study will contribute to the scholarly and policy debates on rising powers, grand strategy, and international order. ii For Ying iii Acknowledgments I feel grateful to have studied with an outstanding group of scholars at Ohio State. First of all, I am indebted to the professors on my dissertation committee. Rick Herrmann always provides insightful and penetrating comments. Whenever I receive his feedback, I often feel I have gotten a clear roadmap to move forward. An excellent methodologist, Bear Braumeoller not only helps me identify problems in my research but also gives me practical suggestions to fix them. My committee chair, Randy Schweller, has been an excellent mentor who challenges me intellectually but is professionally supportive. I have learned a lot from him. In addition, I thank Alex Wendt for his suggestions and guidance in the early stage of my research. I also thank other professors who have taught me, especially Bill Liddle, Jennifer Mizen, Ted Hopf, and Alex Thompson. I gratefully acknowledge the two research grants I got from the Mershon Center for International Security Studies. I have presented my ideas at various places. The workshop on “Rising Powers, Status, and the World Order” at Dartmouth College was extremely stimulating. I thank the three co-organizers—Deborah Larson, T.V. Paul, and William Wohlforth—for their comments. The comments from all the other participants are also greatly appreciated. At other meetings and workshops, I am grateful for the comments offered by Andrew Bennett, John Mearsheimer, Paul Musgrave, David Kang, Tudor Onea, Michael Reese, Ren Xiao, and Yan Xuetong. Scholars in the China field have given me great support. I thank the following who provided written comments on one or more chapters of the dissertation: Chen Dingding, Ja-Ian Chong, Liu Feng, Greg Moore, Jeremy Wallace, Jessica Weiss, Xu Bin, Yin Jiwu, Zhou Fangying, Zuo Xiying, and especially Tang Shiping. I also appreciate the suggestions from Fang Changping, Han Zhaoying, Men Honghua, Xu Jin, Xue Li, Sun Xuefeng, and Zhang Qingmin. I have been hosting a global scholarly listserv (GCIR) on China’s international relations, and I thank each of iv the 160 scholars from around the world for sharing ideas, thoughts, and information. I am grateful to the many scholars, policy analysts, and officials I interviewed during my fieldwork in China in 2010 and 2011. My fellow graduate students at Ohio State have been very collegial, and I especially appreciate the comments from Bentley Allan, Zoltán Búzás, Austin Carson, Brian Chorley, Sean Escoffery, Erin Graham, Loren Goldstein, Jason Keiber, Joshua D. Kertzer, Nina Kollars, Tim Luecke, John Oates, Marcus Holmes, Joshua Wu, Jiwon Suh, and Chaekwang You. I presented various drafts at the Research of International Politics (RIP) workshop at Ohio State and wish to thank all who attended my presentations. Every ending is a new beginning. While my dissertation is completed, I will continue my research on China’s international relations. I thank Thomas Christensen and Alastair Iain Johnston for awarding me a postdoctoral fellowship in the Princeton- Harvard China and the World Program. I look forward to an exciting year ahead. I am also indebted to the many scholars who taught me in my early years, especially Steve Brown, Steve Hook, Zhang Ruizhuang, and Zhu Guanglei. In addition, Li Liangjian and Zhang Guang have often given me encouragement and suggestions. Finally, I want to thank my family. My parents, Pu Jiaxu and Li Sirong, are very supportive of my academic study. I regret that I have not spent the Chinese New Year with them in so long. I am deeply indebted to my elder brother Pu Guoyong, who has shouldered disproportionately greater responsibility in our family. Most of all, I thank my wife Ying for her support and encouragement all these years. v Vita 2000................................................................B.A. Political Science, Nankai University 2003................................................................M.A. Political Science, Nankai University 2006................................................................M.A. Political Science, Kent State University 2006 to present .............................................Graduate Research/Teaching Associate, Department of Political Science, The Ohio State University Publications Randall L. Schweller and Xiaoyu Pu, "After Unipolarity: China's Visions of International Order in an Era of U.S. Decline," International Security, Vol. 36, No. 1 (Summer 2011), pp. 41-72. Bin Xu and Xiaoyu Pu, “Dynamic Statism and Memory Politics: A Case Analysis of the Chinese War Reparations Movement,” The China Quarterly, Vol 201. (March 2010), pp. 156-175. Xiaoyu Pu, “China and International Order Revisited: A Political Sociology Perspective,” [In Chinese], World Economics and Politics, (January 2010), pp.23- 36. Steven Hook and Xiaoyu Pu, “Framing Sino-American Relations Under Stress: A Reexamination of News Coverage of the 2001 Spy Plane Crisis,” Asian Affairs: an American Review, Volume 33, Number 3 (Fall 2006), pp. 167-183. Xiaoyu Pu and Guang Zhang, “China Rising and Its Foreign Policy Orientations: Perspectives from China’s Emerging Elite,” in Sujian Guo and Shiping Hua, eds., New Dimensions of Chinese Foreign Policy (Lanham, MD: Lexington Books- Rowman & Littlefield, 2007). vi Fields of Study Major Field: Political Science vii Table of Contents Abstract ……………………………………………………………………………… ….ii Acknowledgments ……………………………………………………………………… iv Vita………………………………………………………………………………….........vi List of Tables……………………………………………………………………………. ix List of Figures………………………………………………………………………. .......x Chapter 1: Introduction ………………………………………………………………... 1 Chapter 2: A Theory of Status Signaling in International Politics …………………… 39 Chapter 3: Regional Hegemony without Authority: Conspicuous Consumption as Status Signaling and The Case of China's Aircraft Carrier Project…………………………. .. 84 Chapter 4: Selective Involvement as Responsible Power: Conspicuous Giving and China's Response to the Asian Financial Crisis………………………………………...116 Chapter 5: Signaling Low Status through Spinning: China’s Response in Global Financial Crisis…………………………………………………………………………………....150 Chapter 6: Conclusion……………………………………………………………….. ..185 Bibliography ................................................................................................................... 204 viii List of Tables Table 1. Status Signaling in International Politics …………………………………….28 Table 2. Multiple Incentives, Multiple Audiences ………………………………… 28 Table 3. Status Signaling with Different Means and Goals ……………………………60 Table 4. The Impact of Asian Financial Crisis ………………………………………..127 ix List of Figures Figure 1. Chinese Opinions on Aircraft Carrier Project: A Survey………………… 107 x Chapter 1: Introduction A “normal” prestige-maximizer in the 1990s, China today sends contradictory status signals. Rising powers cannot avoid projecting an international image of themselves through various status signals. Though little theoretical work has been done on the subject, the management of a rising power’s image is a central task for its political leaders and diplomats. The rising power’s future trajectory, as well as that of the existing international order, largely depends on how adroitly its leaders (and that of the declining power) navigate the troubled waters of the power shift caused by its growth. The existing literature on rising powers would predict that a rising