Early Warning System in Japan and Lessons Learnt from Recent TC Disasters

JMA/WMO Workshop on Effective Tropical Cyclone Warning in Southeast Asia Tokyo, JAPAN, 11-14 March 2014

Early Warning System in Japan and Lessons learnt from recent TC Disasters

14 March 2014

Yosuke IGARASHI Japan Meteorological Agency

1 JMA's Operational Service

Observations Analysis and Forecast Products Space Based Warnings, Advisories Observation Computer System for Met. Service

Upper Air Numerical Weather Observation Prediction I n f o D r a Radar Collection and m

t Typhoon Forecast a Observation a

Dissemination of t C i o

o Met. Data n ll

e I ss Surface c t i u Observation o a n

Local Met. Observatories n c e Ocean Observation Weather Forecast One Week Forecast International Seasonal Forecast Data Data/Products Aeronautical Met. Exchange Information Other NMHSs Marine Met. Information

2 Dissemination of Warnings JMA disseminates warnings and information via various channels in order to reach people surely and quickly.

Prefectural Governments Municipality Governments The Public National Police Agency Japan Meteorological Agency (Local Meteorological Observatories) Fire and Disaster Management Agency Public Agencies etc. Issuance of disaster prevention NTT (Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation) information, such as: MLIT (Water and Disaster Disaster Prevention Management Bureau) Activities -Weather Warning / Advisory JMA Website, etc. -Typhoon Info. Cellular carrier -Earthquake Early Warning / Info. NHK -Tsunami Warning / Advisory / Info. (Japan Broadcasting Corporation)

l a

c t i

-Volcanic Warning / Info. r g o o l

o Media Organizations r r upp e t S eo

n t e ss e e -Aviation / Marine Weather Info. C M n i s n Public Weather Services u

a Service Users B -Volcanic Ash Advisory p a J Japan Coast Guard Marine Vessels

MLIT (Civil Aviation Bureau) Airplanes 3 Recent Heavy Rain, Flood and Storms in Japan

Damages caused by heavy rain, flood and storms Source: "Shobo Hakusho 2013" (white paper on fire and disaster management) (Number of dead or missing) (Number of houses)

Dead or missing Houses destroyed completely or partially

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (Year)

2004: 10 typhoons struck Japan!

2011: Heavy rain caused by typhoon Talas 4 10 Typhoons struck Japan from June to October 2004

500km

T0404 (landed on Japan around T0406 16:00JST, Jun 11) (landed on Japan around T0410 09:30JST, Jun 21) (landed on Japan around T0411 16:00JST, Jul 31) (landed on Japan around T0415 22:30JST, Aug 4) (landed on Japan around 06:00JST, Aug 20)

T0416 (landed on Japan around T0418 10:00JST, Aug 30) (landed on Japan around T0421 09:30JST, Sep 7) (landed on Japan around T0422 08:30JST, Sep 29) (landed on Japan around T0423 16:00JST, Oct 9) (landed on Japan around 13:00JST, Oct 20) 5 “Guidelines for Producing a Decision and Dissemination Manual for Evacuation Advisories and Orders” (Cabinet Office, 2005)

During the disasters in 2004, mayors did not issue the evacuation advisory / order for appropriate hazardous areas in a timely manner. Background: Mayors can not make decision because they have not pre-determined specific criteria for evacuation advisory / order.

Not determined: 15.6% Specific criteria is pre-determined: 7.1%

Criteria is pre-determined: 84.4% Not determined: 92.9% Source: Cabinet Office, 2004

Municipalities should determine specific criteria. 6 Improvement of Warning

Evacuation Order Warning Municipalities JMA Warning Residents

Warning

In order that JMA's warnings help mayors' decision...

1. Warnings should be issued to city / town / village respectively.

2. Warning criteria should be consistent with the criteria for evacuation advisory and order. 7 Warning for Cities, Towns and Villages Warnings used to be issued by zones that include several cities, towns and villages together in the same group (375 zones in Japan).

多摩西部 23区東部多摩北部 23区西部

多摩南部 warning advisory no warning / advisory 20km Tokyo

JMA divided warning zones into city, town and village basis in 2008 (more than 1,700 zones in Japan).

奥多摩町

青梅市北足立区清瀬市板橋区区瑞穂町東大和東村山市葛飾区羽村市武蔵練馬区福生村山市荒川区墨田市豊島区江戸川区市区

西東京市中野台東区小平市文京区あきる野市立川市

檜原村武蔵野市区国分寺市小金井市新宿区千代田区国立昭島市杉並区中央三鷹市

市江東区渋谷区区港区府中市

八王子市日野市調布市目黒狛江多摩世田谷区区

稲城市市市品川区町田市大田区

8 Improvement of the Criteria for Flood Forecast

Criteria recommended in the Guideline Flood Forecast with Level Mayor's Criteria Decision Water Level Setting

 Water level of the river Flood Danger Level Evacuation has reached "Flood Order Danger Level."  Embankment is broken. Flood Alert Level

 Water level of the river is expected to reach "Flood Flood Watch Level Evacuation Danger Level" in certain Standby Level Advisory hours*. *: Necessary time for people to evacuate Flood Forecast Title Water Level  Water level of the river is Lv5: Flood Occurrence Info. (Flood occur) Evacuation expected to reach "Flood Preparation Danger Level" in certain Lv4: Flood Danger Info. Flood Danger Level Information hours*. *: Necessary time for people who Lv3: Flood Alerting Info. Flood Alert Level require assistance to evacuate Lv2: Flood Advisory Info. Flood Watch Level

- Standby Level 9 Improvement of the Criteria for Storm Surge Warning

Criteria recommended in the Guideline JMA set the criteria for storm Mayor's Criteria surge warning consistent with Decision "Storm Surge Danger Level."

 Sea level has reached "Storm Evacuation Surge Danger Level." Order 1. If the municipality already set the  Tidal embankment is broken. "Storm Surge Danger Level", JMA set the level as the warning criterion  Sea level is expected to reach for the city, town or village. "Storm Surge Danger Level" in 2. If the municipality is NOT set the Evacuation certain hours*. *: Necessary time for people to evacuate, "Storm Surge Danger Level", JMA set Advisory however, storm will be also expected as the the warning criterion based on the tyhoon approaching, mayors should consider the advisory when it meets the criteria for survey (e.g. design high tide level for preparation information. embankment, lowest altitude of the wharf).  Sea level is expected to reach Evacuation "Storm Surge Danger Level" in Preparation certain hours*. Information *: Necessary time for people who require assistance to evacuate

10 Improvement of the Criteria for Sediment Disaster Alert

Criteria recommended in the Guideline Mayor's JMA set the "Critical Line" as the Criteria Decision criteria for Sediment Disaster Alert.

 The rainfall situation has 70 probability Evacuation reached "Critical Line." 60 min. rainfall with NO 降雨発of rainfall現 rainfall 確率値 a sediment disaster Order  A sediment disaster has 60 ・非発生降雨 occurrence e ）

r rainfall with amountr

h 1.0 A / occurred in neighbours. sediment disaster (mm) l m 50 ea m r 0.8 （  The rainfall situation is n U 量 40 expected to reach 0.6 Evacuation "Critical Line" in certain 算雨 30 積 0.4 Advisory hours*. 20 *: Necessary time for people to 分間 0 0.2 evacuate 6 10 0  The rainfall situation is 0 Evacuation expected to reach 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 "Critical Line" in certain Soil Water Index (mm) Preparation 土壌雨量指数（mm） Information hours*. *: Necessary time for people who require assistance to evacuate Critical Line of Sediment Disaster Occurrence

11 Situation on Pre-setting Specific Criteria in 2012

Flood Storm Surge Sediment Disaster

Specific criteria has been pre-determined Specific criteria are under reviewing Specific criteria are under development Not yet started

Source: Fire and Disaster Management Agency, 2013

12 Achievement of the Link between Warnings and Mayors Decision

Disaster Sediment Storm Surge Mayors River Flooding Disaster Flooding Decision

Sediment Flood Evacuation Disaster Alerting Advisory Alert Information Storm Surge Warning Evacuation Flood Heavy Rain Flood Preparation Advisory Warning Warning Information Information

Setting Up Disaster Heavy Rain Flood Storm Surge Countermeasures Advisory Advisory Advisory

13 Typhoon Talas Brought a Long-term Heavy Rainfall in 2011

Cumulative rainfall amount from 2 to 4 September, 2011.

(mm)

50km

14 Heavy Rain by Talas caused Catastrophic Damage Damages: 98 dead or missing 3,538 houses comp / part destroyed 22,094 houses flooded Source: Fire and Disaster Management Agency, 2012

Talas visible image and its track (red line) at 12JST of Sep. 2.

Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, 2011 (figure) 15 Warnings during the Heavy Rain by Talas Rainfall continued after JMA had issued warning, and the situation became worse and worse. However, there was no effective way to inform the public of the catastrophic situation we never experienced!

Sediment ) Kazeya Disaster )

Alert (mm

t (mm

t Heavy Rain Warning oun m oun a

m ll a a

Heavy Rain f ll Sediment n i a

f Advisory Disaster a n r i

a e

r 1 hour rainfall amount v

i r Cumulative rainfall amount t a l u hou

1 282.79月のmm: m月ean降 one水量-monthの rainfa平年ll am値ount282.7mm in September u C

0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 Aug. 31 Sep. 1 Sep. 2 Sep. 3 Sep. 4 Observed Rainfall Amount at Kazeya in Totsukawa village, Nara prefecture 16 Establishment of "Emergency Warning"

Intensity level (Precipitation etc.)

Once in 50 Serious disasters will most probably happen years level Emergency Warning

Serious disasters may happen Warning level Warning

Disasters may happen Advisory level Advisory

Time Disaster Serious Disaster Serious Disasters (Higher possibility) Emergency Warning is issued when JMA expects the precipitation amount of statistically estimated once in 50 years. 17 Expected Timing of Issuance of Emgency Warning

Heavy Rain Emg Warning

Sediment ) Kazeya Disaster )

Alert (mm

t (mm

t Heavy Rain Warning oun m oun a

m ll a a

Heavy Rain f ll Sediment n i a

f Advisory Disaster a n r i

a e

r 1 hour rainfall amount v

i r Cumulative rainfall amount t a l u hou

1 282.79月のmm: m月ean降 one水量-monthの rainfa平年ll am値ount282.7mm in September u C

0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 Aug. 31 Sep. 1 Sep. 2 Sep. 3 Sep. 4 Observed Rainfall Amount at Kazeya in Totsukawa village, Nara prefecture 18 Emgency Warning during the Typhoon Man-yi in 2013

100km

Emgency Warning Warning Advisory No Warning / Advisory

Otsu, Shiga prefecture Emg. Warning 50 05：05, 16 Sep )

) 時間降水量（ミリ） 300 11 hour rainfall (mm) mm (

40 t mm

( 積算降水量（ミリ）

t Cumulative rainfall (mm) un o un m o a

30 Warning m 200 ll a a

18:48, 15 Sep f ll n a i f a n r i 20 Press briefing a Advisory e r v

i r 100 t u 13:54, 15 Sep a l o u h

10 m 1 u C 0 0 0時 3時 6時 9時 12時 15時 18時 21時 24時 3時 6時 9時 12時 19 Categories of Weather Warnings

20 Summary of History on our Improvement 2 grades information --- advisory, warning

2004: 10 typhoons hit Japan Lesson: Warnings need to connect to action

After 2004: Restructuring of warning  warning zones be set as city, town and village areas  warning criteria be consistent with the criteria of evacuation order

2011: Unprecedented rainfall by typhoon Talas Lesson: Effective message in emergency situation.

2013: Emergency warning launched

Our efforts will continue forever so that the warnings save people from natural disasters more effectively! 21 Public Awareness & Cooperation with other Organizations

Public Awareness Cooperation  Leaflets  Consensus on warning criteria Warning criteria are fixed under the consensus through the discussion with municipalities concerned.  Joint information JMA issues flood forecasts jointly with the river administrators, namely, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism or prefectural governments. Sediment disaster  Movies alerts are also issued jointly by JMA and prefectural governments.  Personnel exchange JMA exchanges personnel with other national and municipal governments related to disaster management.  Education  Workshop / events

Cooperation with the Japanese Red Cross Lecture at schools Society 22 Thank you