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Early Warning System in Japan and Lessons Learnt from Recent TC Disasters

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Early Warning System in Japan and Lessons Learnt from Recent TC Disasters JMA/WMO Workshop on Effective Tropical Cyclone Warning in Southeast Asia Tokyo, JAPAN, 11-14 March 2014 Early Warning System in Japan and Lessons learnt from recent TC Disasters 14 March 2014 Yosuke IGARASHI Japan Meteorological Agency 1 JMA's Operational Service Observations Analysis and Forecast Products Space Based Warnings, Advisories Observation Computer System for Met. Service Upper Air Numerical Weather Observation Prediction I n f o D r a Radar Collection and m t Typhoon Forecast a Observation a Dissemination of t C i o o Met. Data n ll e I ss Surface c t i u Observation o a n Local Met. Observatories n c e Ocean Observation Weather Forecast One Week Forecast International Seasonal Forecast Data Data/Products Aeronautical Met. Exchange Information Other NMHSs Marine Met. Information 2 Dissemination of Warnings JMA disseminates warnings and information via various channels in order to reach people surely and quickly. Prefectural Governments Municipality Governments The Public National Police Agency Japan Meteorological Agency (Local Meteorological Observatories) Fire and Disaster Management Agency Public Agencies etc. Issuance of disaster prevention NTT (Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation) information, such as: MLIT (Water and Disaster Disaster Prevention Management Bureau) Activities -Weather Warning / Advisory JMA Website, etc. -Typhoon Info. Cellular carrier -Earthquake Early Warning / Info. NHK -Tsunami Warning / Advisory / Info. (Japan Broadcasting Corporation) l a c t i -Volcanic Warning / Info. r g o o l o Media Organizations r r upp e t S eo n t e ss e e -Aviation / Marine Weather Info. C M n i s n Public Weather Services u a Service Users B -Volcanic Ash Advisory p a J Japan Coast Guard Marine Vessels MLIT (Civil Aviation Bureau) Airplanes 3 Recent Heavy Rain, Flood and Storms in Japan Damages caused by heavy rain, flood and storms Source: "Shobo Hakusho 2013" (white paper on fire and disaster management) (Number of dead or missing) (Number of houses) Dead or missing Houses destroyed completely or partially 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (Year) 2004: 10 typhoons struck Japan! 2011: Heavy rain caused by typhoon Talas 4 10 Typhoons struck Japan from June to October 2004 500km T0404 (landed on Japan around T0406 16:00JST, Jun 11) (landed on Japan around T0410 09:30JST, Jun 21) (landed on Japan around T0411 16:00JST, Jul 31) (landed on Japan around T0415 22:30JST, Aug 4) (landed on Japan around 06:00JST, Aug 20) T0416 (landed on Japan around T0418 10:00JST, Aug 30) (landed on Japan around T0421 09:30JST, Sep 7) (landed on Japan around T0422 08:30JST, Sep 29) (landed on Japan around T0423 16:00JST, Oct 9) (landed on Japan around 13:00JST, Oct 20) 5 “Guidelines for Producing a Decision and Dissemination Manual for Evacuation Advisories and Orders” (Cabinet Office, 2005) During the disasters in 2004, mayors did not issue the evacuation advisory / order for appropriate hazardous areas in a timely manner. Background: Mayors can not make decision because they have not pre-determined specific criteria for evacuation advisory / order. Not determined: 15.6% Specific criteria is pre-determined: 7.1% Criteria is pre-determined: 84.4% Not determined: 92.9% Source: Cabinet Office, 2004 Municipalities should determine specific criteria. 6 Improvement of Warning Evacuation Order Warning Municipalities JMA Warning Residents Warning In order that JMA's warnings help mayors' decision... 1. Warnings should be issued to city / town / village respectively. 2. Warning criteria should be consistent with the criteria for evacuation advisory and order. 7 Warning for Cities, Towns and Villages Warnings used to be issued by zones that include several cities, towns and villages together in the same group (375 zones in Japan). 多摩西部 23区 東部 多摩北部 23区西部 多摩南部 warning advisory no warning / advisory 20km Tokyo JMA divided warning zones into city, town and village basis in 2008 (more than 1,700 zones in Japan). 奥多摩町 青梅市 北 足立区 清瀬市 板橋区 区 瑞穂町 東大和 東村山市 葛飾区 羽村市 武蔵 練馬区 福生 村山市 荒川区 墨田 市 豊島区 江戸川区 市 区 西東京市 中野 台東区 小平市 文京区 あきる野市 立川市 檜原村 武蔵野市 区 国分寺市 小金井市 新宿区 千代田区 国立 昭島市 杉並区 中央 三鷹市 市 江東区 渋谷区 区 港区 府中市 八王子市 日野市 調布市 目黒 狛江 多摩 世田谷区 区 稲城市 市 市 品川区 町田市 大田区 8 Improvement of the Criteria for Flood Forecast Criteria recommended in the Guideline Flood Forecast with Level Mayor's Criteria Decision Water Level Setting Water level of the river Flood Danger Level Evacuation has reached "Flood Order Danger Level." Embankment is broken. Flood Alert Level Water level of the river is expected to reach "Flood Flood Watch Level Evacuation Danger Level" in certain Standby Level Advisory hours*. *: Necessary time for people to evacuate Flood Forecast Title Water Level Water level of the river is Lv5: Flood Occurrence Info. (Flood occur) Evacuation expected to reach "Flood Preparation Danger Level" in certain Lv4: Flood Danger Info. Flood Danger Level Information hours*. *: Necessary time for people who Lv3: Flood Alerting Info. Flood Alert Level require assistance to evacuate Lv2: Flood Advisory Info. Flood Watch Level - Standby Level 9 Improvement of the Criteria for Storm Surge Warning Criteria recommended in the Guideline JMA set the criteria for storm Mayor's Criteria surge warning consistent with Decision "Storm Surge Danger Level." Sea level has reached "Storm Evacuation Surge Danger Level." Order 1. If the municipality already set the Tidal embankment is broken. "Storm Surge Danger Level", JMA set the level as the warning criterion Sea level is expected to reach for the city, town or village. "Storm Surge Danger Level" in 2. If the municipality is NOT set the Evacuation certain hours*. *: Necessary time for people to evacuate, "Storm Surge Danger Level", JMA set Advisory however, storm will be also expected as the the warning criterion based on the tyhoon approaching, mayors should consider the advisory when it meets the criteria for survey (e.g. design high tide level for preparation information. embankment, lowest altitude of the wharf). Sea level is expected to reach Evacuation "Storm Surge Danger Level" in Preparation certain hours*. Information *: Necessary time for people who require assistance to evacuate 10 Improvement of the Criteria for Sediment Disaster Alert Criteria recommended in the Guideline Mayor's JMA set the "Critical Line" as the Criteria Decision criteria for Sediment Disaster Alert. The rainfall situation has 70 probability Evacuation reached "Critical Line." 60 min. rainfall with NO 降雨発of rainfall現 rainfall 確率値 a sediment disaster Order A sediment disaster has 60 ・ 非発生降雨 occurrence e ） r rainfall with amountr h 1.0 A / occurred in neighbours. sediment disaster (mm) l m 50 ea m r 0.8 （ The rainfall situation is n U 量 40 expected to reach 0.6 Evacuation "Critical Line" in certain 算雨 30 積 0.4 Advisory hours*. 20 *: Necessary time for people to 分間 0 0.2 evacuate 6 10 0 The rainfall situation is 0 Evacuation expected to reach 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 "Critical Line" in certain Soil Water Index (mm) Preparation 土壌雨量指数（mm） Information hours*. *: Necessary time for people who require assistance to evacuate Critical Line of Sediment Disaster Occurrence 11 Situation on Pre-setting Specific Criteria in 2012 Flood Storm Surge Sediment Disaster Specific criteria has been pre-determined Specific criteria are under reviewing Specific criteria are under development Not yet started Source: Fire and Disaster Management Agency, 2013 12 Achievement of the Link between Warnings and Mayors Decision Disaster Sediment Storm Surge Mayors River Flooding Disaster Flooding Decision Sediment Flood Evacuation Disaster Alerting Advisory Alert Information Storm Surge Warning Evacuation Flood Heavy Rain Flood Preparation Advisory Warning Warning Information Information Setting Up Disaster Heavy Rain Flood Storm Surge Countermeasures Advisory Advisory Advisory 13 Typhoon Talas Brought a Long-term Heavy Rainfall in 2011 Cumulative rainfall amount from 2 to 4 September, 2011. (mm) 50km 14 Heavy Rain by Talas caused Catastrophic Damage Damages: 98 dead or missing 3,538 houses comp / part destroyed 22,094 houses flooded Source: Fire and Disaster Management Agency, 2012 Talas visible image and its track (red line) at 12JST of Sep. 2. Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, 2011 (figure) 15 Warnings during the Heavy Rain by Talas Rainfall continued after JMA had issued warning, and the situation became worse and worse. However, there was no effective way to inform the public of the catastrophic situation we never experienced! Sediment ) Kazeya Disaster ) Alert (mm t (mm t Heavy Rain Warning oun m oun a m ll a a Heavy Rain f ll Sediment n i a f Advisory Disaster a n r i a e r 1 hour rainfall amount v i r Cumulative rainfall amount t a l u hou m 1 282.79月のmm: m月ean降 one水量-monthの rainfa平年ll am値ount282.7mm in September u C 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 Aug. 31 Sep. 1 Sep. 2 Sep. 3 Sep. 4 Observed Rainfall Amount at Kazeya in Totsukawa village, Nara prefecture 16 Establishment of "Emergency Warning" Intensity level (Precipitation etc.) Once in 50 Serious disasters will most probably happen years level Emergency Warning Serious disasters may happen Warning level Warning Disasters may happen Advisory level Advisory Time Disaster Serious Disaster Serious Disasters (Higher possibility) Emergency Warning is issued when JMA expects the precipitation amount of statistically estimated once in 50 years. 17 Expected Timing of Issuance of Emgency Warning Heavy Rain Emg Warning Sediment ) Kazeya Disaster ) Alert (mm t (mm t Heavy Rain Warning oun m oun a m ll a a Heavy Rain f ll Sediment n i a f Advisory Disaster a n r i a e r 1 hour rainfall amount v i r Cumulative rainfall amount t a l u hou m 1 282.79月のmm: m月ean降 one水量-monthの rainfa平年ll am値ount282.7mm in September u C 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 0：00 12：00 Aug.
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