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December 2007 Cycles in Perspective Runching Credit and Soaring Fuel Is Clearly Not a Good Combi- CONTENTS Cnation for the Aviation Industry

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December 2007 Cycles in Perspective Runching Credit and Soaring Fuel Is Clearly Not a Good Combi- CONTENTS Cnation for the Aviation Industry Aviation Strategy Issue No: 122 December 2007 Cycles in perspective runching credit and soaring fuel is clearly not a good combi- CONTENTS Cnation for the aviation industry. Citing these adverse develop- ments, IATA has come out with a forecast that sees a cyclical Analysis downturn in 2008 and identifies 2007 as the peak of the market. This means, using IATA's definition of the cycle in terms of glob- al net profit/loss, that the recent upturn is very truncated. However, Aviation cycles 1-2 it is becoming more difficult to interpret the significance of an agglomerated forecast in an aviation world that is becoming less Boeing and and less homogenous. Airbus orderbooks 2007 2-3 One of the features of the aviation scene in recent years has been the contrast between the US network carrier sector - which Europe’s charter industry has been characterised by low growth, drawn-out labour negotia- and the internet generation tions and downsizing by the Legacy carriers, with minimal invest- 4-7 ment in new equipment - and the rest of the developed world. This is a huge generalisation of course, but in Europe the main network The new Thomas Cook Group carriers are all enjoying success with variations on the global hub 7-10 strategy, the Middle East super-connectors remain overwhelming- ly ambitious, and SIA is pioneering the A380. Even the US LCC Briefing sector, despite the continued solid performance of Southwest and the innovative alliance strategies of JetBlue, has not been any- Grupo Marsans: building where near as dynamic as Europe, where Ryanair continues to a South Atlantic empire produce excellent financial results, expand its network and contin- uously minimalise the short haul product, to the dismay of some, to • Aerolineas Argentinas the delight of others. • Austral It is disturbing that IATA reckons that the North America region's • Air Comet Chile net profit will fall from an estimated $2.7bn in 2007 to $2.2bn in • Air Comet 11-19 2008 (this decline accounts for almost all of the forecast global downturn). This certainly goes against the perception that some of Databases 20-23 Op. IATA FINANCIAL FORECAST US$ margin (%) (bn) Airline traffic and financials 10 8.2 8.5 10 Regional trends 5.6 5.0 3.7 5 5 Orders 0 0 -0.5 -5 -5 -4.1 PUBLISHER -5.6 -10 -7.5 -10 -11.3 Aviation Economics -15 -13.0 -15 James House, 1st Floor 22/24 Corsham Street 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F London N1 6DR Source: IATA, December 2007 Tel: +44 (0) 20 7490 5215 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7490 5218 www.aviationeconomics.com e-mail: [email protected] Aviation Strategy Analysis the Legacies are now in a strong position to and plead the case for mergers to rationalise reap benefits from their Chapter 11 restruc- the business. In Europe and particularly in turings. the emergent aviation markets of the Middle Then IATA is projecting a paltry $2bn net East, India and China, there is a widespread profit for Europe. But the four network carri- view of the aircraft market as being under- ers' (Air France/KLM, BA, Lufthansa and supplied relative to demand, which has Iberia) combined net profits for next year are resulted in lease rates for modern narrow- Aviation Strategy is published 10 times a year currently being forecast by equity analysts at bodies doubling over the past five years, a by Aviation Economics around $6.5bn while the big two LCCs - strong escalation in second-hand prices and Ryanair and easyJet - will add a further excessively long waiting periods for deliver- Editor: $1.1bn or so. One wonders who is going to ies of new orders. From this perspective, a Keith McMullan make the counterbalancing massive losses - cyclical peak probably has been reached, [email protected] Alitalia can't do it all on its own. and a slowdown would even be beneficial in The US/rest of the world split is also taking some of the heat out of the market. Contributing Editor: Heini Nuutinen reflected in apparently contrasting views of There is no sign of a slowdown in order- the state of the aircraft market. In the US ing activity as yet; indeed, 2007 looks to Contributing Editor: many leading airline executives and have been another record year with 2,348 Nick Moreno financiers attribute the lack of profitability in firm orders booked by Airbus and Boeing (in the Legacy sector to systemic overcapacity the ratio 47/53). This compares to 1,834 last Sub-editor: Julian Longin AIRBUS ORDERS 2007 A320 [email protected] family A330 A340 A350 A380 Total Air Caraibes 2 2 A320 Avianca 20 10 30 Subscriptions: family A330 A340 A350 A380 Total LAN Airlines 15 15 [email protected] Aegean Airlines 6 6 Volaris 14 14 Aercap 10 10 L. American Total 49 12 0 0 0 61 Tel: +44 (0)20 7490 5215 Aeroflot 5 22 27 Aircastle Advisor Ltd 15 15 Air Asia 50 50 Copyright: Air France 2 2 Air Blue 8 8 Aviation Economics Avion Aircraft Trading 8 8 C Jet 1 1 All rights reserved BAA Jet Management 1 1 Cebu Pacific 10 10 British Airways 4 4 Fly Asian Xpress 15 15 Comlux Aviation 2 2 Flyington Freighters 12 12 Aviation Economics CSA Czech Airlines 8 8 Go Air 3 3 Registered No: 2967706 easyJet 35 35 Hong Kong Airlines 31 20 51 (England) Finnair 7 11 18 Mandala Airlines 25 25 Iberia 3 3 Singapore Airlines 20 20 Registered Office: Israir 3 3 Thai Airways 8 8 James House, 1st Floor KLM 2 2 Tiger Airways 20 20 22/24 Corsham St Lufthansa 30 30 Asian Total 148 55 0 20 0 223 London N1 6DR MNG Airlines 2 2 Afriqiyah Airways 5 5 VAT No: 701780947 S7 Group 25 25 Air Arabia 34 34 SWISS 2 9 11 ISSN 1463-9254 ALAFCO 7 12 19 TAP Air Portugal 12 12 Al Jaber Group 2 2 The opinions expressed in this publica- Ural Airlines 7 7 Egyptair 5 5 tion do not necessarily reflect the opin- Uzbekistan Airways 6 6 Emirates 70 15 85 ions of the editors, publisher or contribu- Vista Jet 3 3 Etihad 8 4 12 tors. Every effort is made to ensure that 50 the information contained in this publica- Wizz Air 50 Jazeera Airways 30 30 tion is accurate, but no legal reponsibility European Total 187 46 10 45 2 290 Kingdom Holding 1 1 is accepted for any errors or omissions. Aviation Capital Group 45 45 Middle East Airlines 2 2 The contents of this publication, either in CIT Leasing 25 5 2 32 National Air Services 20 20 whole or in part, may not be copied, GECAS 60 60 Nouvelair 2 2 stored or reproduced in any format, print- Oman Air 5 5 ed or electronic, without the written con- Guggenheim 6 6 sent of the publisher. ILFC 20 20 RAF Oman 2 2 Intrepid Aviation 20 20 Qatar Airways 2 80 3 85 Jet Alliance 2 2 Yemenia 10 10 Petters 6 6 Africa/M.East Total 106 18 4 172 19 319 Spirit Airlines 30 30 Private Customer 8 1 4 13 US Airways 60 15 22 97 Unidentified Total 0 0 N.American Total 228 41 5 44 0 318 Gross Total 726 173 23 281 21 1224 Note: Firm orders as of December 17 Source: Airbus December 2007 2 Aviation Strategy Analysis No. of JET ORDER BACKLOG 1990 - 2007 % of A/C global fleet 8,000 40 7,000 35 6,000 30 5,000 25 4,000 20 3,000 2,000 15 1,000 10 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 year and 2,057 in 2005, which was confi- nies and the super-connectors - notably dently identified as the peak of the ordering Emirates - were the main players, though cycle. US Airways did firm up a significant refleet- LCCs from all continents, leasing compa- ing programme. 737 BOEING ORDERS 2007 N. America (cont.) NG 747 767 777 787 Total Oak Hill Capital Partners 8 8 737 Pegasus Airlines 6 6 NG 747 767 777 787 Total Southwest 28 28 Aeroflot 22 22 UPS 27 27 Aerosvit 7 7 WestJet 20 20 Air Berlin 25 25 N.American Total 213 1 27 19 93 353 Air France 9 9 Copa Airlines 4 4 AWAS 31 31 LAN Airlines 3 2 26 31 Azerbaijan Airlines 2 3 5 TAM 8 8 4 British Airways 4 L. American Total 4 0 3 10 26 43 Cargolux Airlines 3 3 DHL International 6 6 Air New Zealand 4 4 8 First Choice Airways 4 4 All Nippon Airways 4 4 KLM Royal Dutch 13 4 17 Cathay Pacific 10 12 22 LOT Polish Airlines 1 1 China Southern Airlines 55 6 61 Norwegian Air Shuttle 42 42 JAL International 5 5 Ryanair 27 27 Jet Airways 20 3 23 S7 Group 15 15 Lion Air 88 88 SAS 2 2 Nippon Cargo Airlines 6 6 SkyEurope 5 5 Philippine Airlines 4 4 Transavia Airlines 7 7 Sky Peace Ltd. 1 1 Travel Service 1 1 SpiceJet 10 10 Uzbekistan Airways 2 2 Virgin Australia 6 6 Virgin Atlantic 15 15 Virgin Blue 10 10 European Total 136 3 6 17 88 250 Xiamen Airlines 25 25 Asian Total 208 16 0 39 10 273 Air Canada 23 23 AirTran 15 15 ALAFCO 6 16 22 Alaska Airlines 5 5 Arik Air 10 5 7 22 American Airlines 1 1 Emirates 12 12 Aviation Capital Group 30 5 35 LCAL 6 6 Babcock & Brown 20 20 Qatar Airways 5 30 35 Boeing Business Jet 16 1 3 20 Royal Jordanian 4 4 CIT Leasing Corp.
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