Back to the future: the referendum of November 7th in Macedonia

Albert van Hal1

1. Introduction The referendum of November 7th, 2004 in Macedonia — that wanted to reject the law on new municipal boundaries — failed completely. The turn out was only 26%. Since the end of the war of 2001 this referendum was the most serious test for the stability of the country so far. For the moment, Macedonia has left the past behind and has its eyes back on the future. To understand the current political situation in Macedonia this article describes the ups and downs which Macedonia has experienced in its struggle for stability in recent history and especially since the war of 2001. I will give special attention to the topic of decentralisation: the proposed changes to municipal borders, the role of the different political parties in this process, the popular response to it and the outcome of the referendum. Also the international position of Macedonia and the role the EU, the USA and Iraq played during this ‘crisis’ is explained. The article ends by looking forward.

2. Ethnic composition Macedonia was part of Yugoslavia until 1991, when it became an independent republic. Macedonia is a country with just over 2 million inhabitants, representing a wide variety of different ethnic groups.

Ethnic groups in the Republic of Macedonia

Ethnic group % of population Macedonian 64.18 Albanian 25.17 Turkish 3.85 Roma 2.66 Serbs 1.78 Bosniacs 0.84 Vlachs 0.48 Other 1.04 Total 100

Source: National Institute for Statistics, , 2002

1 Albert van Hal is project manager Kosovo and Macedonia at the Dutch IKV (Inter-Church Peace Council). From 2000 until 2002 he worked in , Macedonia. Back to the future: referendum in Macedonia 37

The two largest ethnic groups in the country are the Macedonians and the Albanians. According to the official census of 2002, Macedonians make up a little less than two thirds of the population, while Albanians account for a quarter of the population. Albanians are concentrated in the Western and North-Western part of the country where Macedonia borders with , Kosovo and the Preshevo valley of Serbia. In this part of the country especially in the countryside, Albanians often form the majority. Also in some cities like , Debar and Gostivar they form the majority. In other cities like Kicevo, and the situation varies per city. In the capital Skopje (700,000 inhabitants) Albanians now form 21% of the population.

3. Geographic location The area that is now called the ‘Republic of Macedonia’ was in the past claimed by neighbouring countries that waged terror and war to make it part of their territory. Macedonia still has difficult relationships with all its neighbours. Greece does not recognize the name ‘Republic of Macedonia’ and is blocking international recognition of that name.2 Bulgaria does not recognize the and according to Bulgarian nationalists Macedonia belongs to Bulgaria. The church of Serbia does not recognize the most important national symbol for the Macedonians: the Macedonian Orthodox Church.3 Albania officially has good relations with Macedonia, but that relationship is nevertheless sensitive because of the position of the large Albanian minority in Macedonia. Macedonia and Kosovo have a border dispute and during the war of 2001 Albanians from Kosovo joined the Albanian rebels in Macedonia.4 To put it more simply: Macedonians believe that Albanians want their land, Serbs want their church, Greeks want their name and Bulgarians want their language.

4. Inter-ethnic relations The two main ethnic groups have a difficult relationship. Albanians claim that the Macedonians treat them as second-class citizens. Albanians want more employment in the state administration especially in the police. The number of Albanians in most ministries is now growing, but was less than 10% before 2001. The number of Albanians in the police is also growing rapidly, but was less than 5% before 2001.

2 After Macedonia became independent Greece refused to recognise this. Greece was afraid of territorial claims to a region in Northern Greece also called Macedonia. The EU and US followed the Greek position and Macedonia could not become a member of the UN. In 1993 a temporary agreement lasting 10 years was signed: Macedonia became a member of the UN and was recognised as the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). In the meantime the ambassadors of Greece and FYROM at the UN negotiated a final agreement. These negotiations had no result. 3 According to the Serbian Orthodox Church and to other orthodox churches Macedonia is a diocese of the Serbian Orthodox Church. 4 Kosovo is a special case. According to UN resolution 1244 the UN temporarily administers it. During this temporary administration by the UN it remains part of the sovereignty of Serbia pending a final settlement on its status.

Helsinki Monitor 2005 no. 1