Deforestation and Migration
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DICE DATA ANALYSIS Britta Rude, Bennet Niederhöfer and Fabio Ferrara* Deforestation and Migration In recent years, the deforestation of rainforest loca- tions all over the world has increasingly attracted ABSTRACT public attention. Forests are public goods that cre- ate positive externalities, keep our ecosystem in bal- This article deals with the relationship between migration ance, promote biodiversity around the world and and deforestation. Based on the existing literature, it outlines are vital for the preservation of animal species and how these factors can interact. It then illustrates these inter- their habitats. They also store CO , mitigate climate 2 actions using the example of three countries in South Amer- change, protect water catchment areas and prevent soil erosion. In many parts of the world, forests still ica that have experienced a particularly high deforestation serve as habitats for ancient civilizations and indig- rate in recent years: Brazil, Mexico and Paraguay. The study enous tribes. shows that the interactions between migration and deforest- ation are diverse and can have many reasons. Migration can WHY AND HOW DOES DEFORESTATION be both a consequence and a cause of deforestation. Further AFFECT MIGRATION? research is needed to further understand possible measures But what is the value of forests? In recent decades, that mitigate the potential negative effects of migration on for- forests have increasingly been perceived as an obsta- ests on the one hand, and to reduce migration flows caused cle to growth in rural areas and their productive value by deforestation on the other. We recommend a more produc- has been questioned (Deb 2014). Even if forests can tive use of forests and mechanisms that internalize associated be used to produce forest products such as medici- externalities, such as CO generation or ecological values. nal plants, handicrafts or honey, they are usually not 2 as profitable as alternative production activities (te Velde et al. 2006). Although forests generate firewood and noble wood, their investment periods are long. The positive externalities generated by forests for our Depending on country and conditions, productive society are not taken into account in the process of forestry has a life cycle of five to 28 years (Frey et al. deforestation. In the case of Paraguay, for example, 2018). Therefore, in many places forests have had to Ramstein et al. (2019) estimate a CO2 price of USD give way to other productive activities, such as agri- 180.5/tCO2, while a World Bank guideline assumes culture and livestock farming. Paraguay, for example, a price of 40 to 80 USD in 2020 (World Bank 2017b). is the world’s fourth-largest soybean exporter and pro- But forests generate even more social benefits, from duces 8 to 9 million tons of soybean per year (Nepon disease prevention to water purification and flood 2019). Brazil is the largest exporter of beef. One third mitigation. For some population groups, they provide of all beef exports worldwide come directly from the cultural value of aesthetic or spiritual nature and of- Amazon region (McAlpine et al. 2009). And Mexico is fer places of refuge. According to FUNAI estimates, the world’s largest producer of avocado. About six out at least 68 unreached tribes still live in the Brazilian of ten avocados consumed worldwide originate from Amazon (van Boehout Solinge 2010). For this popula- the Central American country (Ayala 2020). tion group, land and resources are inextricably linked Figure 1 gives an initial insight into the loss of for- to their livelihood and worldview. est area in the north of Latin America in recent years. * All ifo Institute. Figure 1 orest Area oss fro 2121 in atin Aerica Noe Te re area iniae fore area lo Soure anen/D/oole/SS/NASA Earar eorai Eri EE armin FA NAA SS Lin //ari/raT CESifo Forum 1 / 2021 January Volume 22 49 DICE DATA ANALYSIS DEFORESTATION AND JOBS DEFORESTATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE If forests disappear, the values associated with A further connection between deforestation and mi- them disappear too. It is therefore obvious that gration emerges via climate change. The European deforestation and the destruction of forests will Parliament refers to migrants displaced by natural lead to migration in many parts of the world. In ad- disasters or climate change as climate refugees or dition, the alternative production models that are climate migrants. Migration as a consequence of cli- implemented instead of forests are usually intro- mate change is well known and has been highlighted duced by large corporations and generate few jobs in the scientific literature for several years, espe- in rural areas since they are often highly technical cially in relation to sub-Saharan Africa, as well as (Oxfam 2020; Azevedo-Ramos 2007). Bustos et al. countries in Latin America (Barrios et al. 2006; Gray (2016) find that a one percent increase in the area and Bilsborrow 2013). Deforestation is no exception cultivated with genetically modified soybeans re- to this and is similar in its form as a determinant of duces the share of agricultural workers in Brazil by migration. In the short term, the rainforest deforest- 0.09%. Furthermore, while state investments can ation becomes a threat to indigenous peoples and favor large companies in their production, they can can result in their involuntary migration. In the long also economically damage parts of the rural pop- term, the consequences may be more far-reaching ulation (Garrett and Rausch 2016). The quality of than the direct effect on the rainforest. Areas that life of the rural population is declining as they are are cleared, for example, for pasture use for live- exposed to harsher weather conditions, have to walk stock breeding, cause an increase in mean surface longer distances to collect firewood or to hunt ani- temperature and lower precipitation (Nobre et al. mals. Other food sources become increasingly inac- 1991). Such anomalies in precipitation and tempera- cessible due to the degradation of the (rain) forest, ture have an impact on the financial situation of the too. Hunger and emigration are the consequences, population in these areas, which can cause voluntary especially among the poorer population groups. Ac- migration (Cattaneo et al. 2019). cording to the WWF (2013), the strong growth ob- served in Paraguay in recent years is based on an MIGRATION AS A CAUSE OF DEFORESTATION economic model that leads to the concentration of land, resources, wealth and power among a few, Juniwaty et al. (2019), in turn, explain that, con- while small farmers are not prioritized or supported versely, migration also affects forests and their use. by national policies. One reason for this is that rural populations change On the other hand, deforestation can also cre- due to migration. If, for example, it is mainly men who ate jobs. Economic conditions for the rural popu- migrate and women who stay behind in villages, the lation in Indonesia have improved (Afriyanti et al. use of the forests changes, since women demonstra- 2016) due to rainforest deforestation and palm oil bly pursue different productive activities in forests production. In the deforested area, agriculture is than men. On the other hand, immigration from cities based on booming export goods. In Ghana and Bur- or other rural areas also affects the use of forests. kina Faso, for example, forest-free areas are con- Juniwaty et al. (2019) also address the importance sidered economically more valuable than forested of educational migrants. When family members mi- areas (Pouliot et al. 2012). In Bolivia, the profits grate for education, this generates costs for rural from timber and soybean production outweighed households, which can lead to an intensification of the costs of cleared forest areas in the short term, agriculture and thus to deforestation. With regard thus improving the living conditions of the popula- to migration to rainforest areas, Thiede and Gray tion in rural areas (Kaimowitz et al. 1999). This could (2020) show that migrant women in Latin America subsequently lead to rural-rural or even urban-rural are increasingly moving to areas with few indigenous migration of people in search of work opportunities inhabitants. Amacher et al. (1998) find that migrants and unused land. in the Philippines prefer regions where there is a lot However, Kaimowitz et al. (1999) stress the of state-owned forest available and good transport short-lived nature of economic progress due to ris- routes. At the same time, these are characteristics ing marginal costs. Increased agricultural activity, that particularly encourage deforestation. Carr (2009) which went hand in hand with the deforestation of describes that especially forest areas with low popu- the rainforest in Malaysia, reduced the poverty rate lation density are exposed to massive deforestation, enormously. Once the rate fell below a certain point, since control over illegal logging is more difficult to however, the rate of deforestation was reduced. As enforce in such areas. Amacher et al. (2009) also point soon as the rural population achieved a certain level out that migration increases the supply of labor, thus of prosperity through palm oil production, they be- lowering wages and making forest clearing more prof- gan to pursue more productive activities in urban itable for companies. Remittances also play a role. areas (Miyamoto et al. 2014). This again may also While some scientific analyses show that monetary lead to migration flows in the long term. remittances are invested in agriculture and livestock 50 CESifo Forum 1 / 2021 January Volume 22 DICE DATA ANALYSIS Table 1 Channels of Interaction between Migration and Deforestation Type of migration Deforestation Migration as a driving force for deforestation Urban-rural migration/ international migration In search of better job opportunities and unused resources, migrants from urban areas settle in regions with a lot of land in order to transform it productively.