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Climate Change a Blessing Or a Curse for Agriculture?

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Contemporary Environmental Readings Volume 1 Climate Change A Blessing or a Curse for Agriculture? First Edition Dr. Hassan R. El-Ramady Soil Sciences Dept., Faculty of Agr., Kafr El-Sheikh Uni., 33156 Kafr El-Sheikh, Egypt Dr. Abdel Aziz Belal, National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences (NARSS), Cairo, Egypt Prof. Dr. Samia M. El-Marsafawy, Deputy Director, Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC), Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt With contribution by Prof. Dr. Said A. Shehata Vegetable Crops Dept., Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt Prof. Dr. Said Zakaria A. Yehia Horticulture Research Institute (HRI), Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt Dr. El-Sayed B. Belal, Associate Prof. Dept. of Agric. Botany Fac. of Agri., Kafr El Sheikh Uni., 33156 Kafr El-Sheikh, Egypt Dedication To Our Families Acknowledgments We would like to express our deepest appreciation and sincere gratitude to the following authors and publishers for their help: Sir John Houghton Rattan Lal (Professor of soil physics in the School of Environment and Natural Resources and director of the Carbon Management and Sequestration Center, Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences/Ohio Agriculture Research and Development Center, at The Ohio State University, USA; [email protected]). Daniel Hillel and Cynthia Rosenzweig (Columbia University and Goddard Institute for Space Studies, USA; [email protected] and [email protected]). Jillian M. Lenné (North Oldmoss Croft , Fyvie, Turriff , Aberdeenshire AB53 8NA, UK. E-mail: [email protected]) D. Wood (North Oldmoss Croft , Fyvie, Turriff , Aberdeenshire AB53 8NA, UK. E-mail: [email protected]) Harpal S. Mavi (Climate risk management consultant in Sydney, Australia) Graeme J. Tupper (Technical Specialist, Resource Information, in the NSW Department of Agriculture, Australia) Shakeel A. Khan (Division of Environmental Sciences, Indian agricultural Research Institute, Pusa Campus, New Delhi – 110012, India, [email protected]) United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/GRID-Arendal (http://www.grida.no/) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Finally, we would like to extend our sincere appreciation and acknowledge to all colleagues in Kafr El-sheikh Uni. (Soil Sciences Dept.) and friends with whom I shared whose names and contributions I can not enumerate due to space limitation. Table of contents i Climate change: a blessing or a curse for agriculture? Table of contents Chapter 1 Climate changes and agroecosystems 1.1 Why the Interest in Global Climate Change? 3 1.1.1 Introduction 3 1.1.2 Elements of the Climate System 6 1.1.3 Climate and non-climate drivers of change 9 1.2 Climate changes and agroecosystems 10 1.2.1 Introduction 10 1.2.2 Agrometeorology 16 1.2.3 Agroecosystems 19 1.2.4 Agrobiodiversity 21 1.2.5 Impacts of climate change on agrobiodiversity 26 1.2.6 IPCC and agrobiodiversity management 28 Chapter 2 Climate Changes and Agriculture 2.1 Climate change: a blessing or a curse for agriculture? 31 2.2 Climate Changes and Agriculture………………………………… 34 2.2.1 Introduction ……………………………………………………… 35 2.2.2 Climate Prediction and Agriculture 37 2.2.3 Climate Changes and its Impact on Agriculture 40 2.2.4 Climate Change’s Impacts on Global Crop Productivity……… 45 2.2.5 Impacts of Climate Changes on Crop Physiology………………….. 49 2.2.6 Impacts of Climate Changes on Food Production and Safety………… 52 2.2.7 Effects on Postharvest Quality of Fruit and Vegetable Crops 56 2.2.8 Impacts Climate Changes on Pest and Disease Prevalence 64 2.2.9 Effects on Animal production and sustainability of livestock systems 68 2.2.10 Climate Changes and Biodiversity…………………………… 79 2.2.11 Climate Changes and Land Use 84 2.2.12 Climate Changes and Bioenergy 95 2.2.13 More uncertainty for agriculture under climate change 98 2.2.14 The Toxicology of Climate Changes…………… 99 2.3 Climate Applications and Agriculture 101 2.3.1 Adaptation: Living with Climate Changes 102 2.3.2 Remote-Sensing and GIS Applications in Agrometeorology 104 2.3.3 Hyperspectral Remote Sensing of Vegetation Bioparameters 119 2.3.4 Managing Weather and Climate Risks in Agriculture 129 2.3.5 Agriculture and Greenhouse Gases 134 2.3.6 Strategies to Combat the Impact of Climatic Changes 137 Table of contents ii Chapter 3 Impacts of Climate Changes on Soil, Water and Air Environments 3. Impacts of Climate Changes on Soil and Water Environments 144 3.1 The Role of Soils in Climate Changes 144 3.1.1 Introduction 148 3.1.2 Climate Changes and Soil Health 149 3.1.3 Impact of Climate Changes on Soil Structure 155 3.1.4 The Effects of Climate Changes on Soil pH 160 3.1.5 Climate Changes and Soil Organic Matter 161 3.1.6 Soil Respiration in a Changing World 162 3.1.7 Impacts of Global Changes on Soil Biota 166 3.1.8 Soil Degradation and Climate Changes..................... 170 3.2 Water Crisis in a Changing World…………………………… 171 3.2.1 Introduction 171 3.2.2 Climate Changes and Global Water Crisis……………………………… 172 3.2.3 Global Climate Changes –Sources and Impacts on the Water Cycle 174 3.2.4 Impact of Climate Change on Fresh Water Resources 179 3.3 Air Pollution in a Changing World…………………………… 182 3.3.1 Introduction 182 3.3.2 Effect of Climate Change on Air Quality 183 3.3.3 The Greenhouse Gases and its Effects 189 Chapter 4 The Nile and Climate Changes: A Case Study for Egypt 4. The Nile and Climate Changes: A Case Study for Egypt ………… 207 4.1 Introduction 207 4.2 Egypt: the Gem of the World 210 4.3 The Nile and Water Scarcity…………………………………………… 215 4.4 Nile Basin Climates……………………………………………………. 221 4.5 The Nile: History of scientific research………………………………… 225 4.6 Effects of Climatic and Global Change on Water Scarcity…………… 227 4.7 Climate Changes and Nile Water Availability in Egypt……………… 234 4.8 Climate Changes and its Impacts on Nile Flows……………………… 239 4.9 Climate Variability and Changes in the Nile Basin…………………… 241 4.10 The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Egypt 244 4.11 Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Egypt 255 4.12 General Conclusions 258 References 263 Chapter 1 Climate change and agroecosystem 1 1 Climate Change and Agroecosystem " َ َ َ ظھر ْ ََ ُالفساد ِفي َْ ﱢالبر َ َْ ْ ِ والبحر ِ َبما ََ َ ْكسبت َْ ِأيدي ﱠ ِالناس ِ ُ ِ َُ ْليذيقھم َ َْ بعض ﱠِ الذي َِ ُعملوا ََ ﱠ ُ ْلعلھم َ ْ ُِ َيرجعون " الروم اﻵية 41 “Corruption has appeared throughout the land and sea by [reason of] what the hands of people have earned so He may let them taste part of [the consequence of] what they have done that perhaps they will return [to righteousness]” (Holy Quran:Ar-Room, verse 41) 1.1 Why the Interest in Global Climate Change? 1.1.1 Introduction 1.1.2 Elements of the Climate System 1.1.3 Climate and non-climate drivers of change 1.2 Climate changes and agroecosystems 1.2.1 Introduction 1.2.2 Agrometeorology 1.2.3 Agroecosystems 1.2.4 Agrobiodiversity 1.2.5 Impacts of climate change on agrobiodiversity 1.2.6 IPCC and agrobiodiversity management Chapter 1 Climate change and agroecosystem 2 Key terms Carbon sink: A reservoir that removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and provides storage over a period of time; the reservoir can be a natural sink, for example trees and oceans absorb vast quantities of carbon dioxide, or a man- made one, such as carbon capture and storage schemes. Climate: The average weather, encompassing natural variability and extremes. Greenhouse gas: A gas that contributes to trapping heat in the atmosphere, warming the Earth, including carbon dioxide, methane and water vapor; they are both naturally occurring and also released into the atmosphere by humankind. Global warming: The rise in global temperature observed during the 20th century and projected to continue into the future, caused by human beings’ increased emissions of greenhouse gases. Climate change: The changes in the observed and projected climate around the world; a natural phenomenon altered due to human beings’ activities; a more comprehensive term than global warming as it also includes changes to rainfall, ocean and atmosphere circulation patterns and sea level. Adaptation: Taking action to minimize the current and expected impacts of climate change. Mitigation: Taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing natural and artificial processes that remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Global warming potential (GWP): A term indicating how much a greenhouse gas contributes to global warming when compared to the same amount of carbon dioxide over a set period of time (often 100 years); for example, the GWP of methane over 100 years is 23, meaning that 23 tonnes of CO2 would need to be emitted to cause the same effect as 1 tonne of methane. IPCC AR4: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report 4; the IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme to provide decision-makers and others with an objective source of information about climate change. Kyoto Protocol: An addition to the UNFCCC, providing legally binding measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; the gases or groups of gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons; by December 2008 it had been ratified by 183 parties. Food security: Food security refers to the availability of food and one’s access to it; a household is considered food secure when its occupants do not live in hunger or fear of starvation.
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