Karabağ Rus 'Barişi Koruma' Gücü

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Karabağ Rus 'Barişi Koruma' Gücü Dış Politika & Güvenlik 2021/06/TR Mayıs 2021 KARABAĞ RUS ‘BARIŞI KORUMA’ GÜCÜ: MOSKOVA KAFKASYA’DA NE YAPMAYA ÇALIŞIYOR? Dr. Can Kasapoğlu | Güvenlik & Savunma Programı Direktörü, EDAM Oğul Tuna | Araştırmacı, EDAM DışDış PolitikaPolitika & Güvenlik 2021/06/TR2021/02/TR KARABAĞ RUS ‘BARIŞI KORUMA’ GÜCÜ: MOSKOVA KAFKASYA’DA NE YAPMAYA ÇALIŞIYOR? Dr. Can Kasapoğlu | Güvenlik & Savunma Programı Direktörü, EDAM Oğul Tuna | Araştırmacı, EDAM Yönetici Özeti • Rusya Federasyonu Karabağ Barış Gücü, bir barış • Karabağ Savaşı sırasında, Azerbaycan Silahlı Kuv- gücü misyonu kapsamının ötesine geçerek, bölgedeki vetleri’nin, Türk robotik harp kabiliyetini de kullanarak, fiili Ermeni işgal yönetimi ile sistematik siyasi-askeri ve Rus silahları ile teçhiz edilmiş Ermeni birliklerine karşı ekonomik ilişkiler kurmaktadır. Altyapı, iktisadi hayat ezici bir askeri-teknolojik üstünlük ortaya koyması, Rus ve kamu idaresi alanındaki faaliyetler de, bu bağlam- strateji çevrelerinde endişe ile karşılanmıştır. Türkiye – da dikkat çekicidir. Azerbaycan savunma entegrasyonunun geleceği, söz • Barış gücü misyonunun görev süresinin ucu açık bir konusu kaygıları artıran bir diğer faktördür. Belirtilen takvim ile belirlenmesi, söz konusu faaliyetin, fiili du- nedenlerle, Rus Barış Gücü, bölgede, çatışmaların rumun tahkim edilmesi ve kalıcı bir hal alması ama- engellenmesi ve hayatın normalleşmesinin ötesinde, cını taşıdığını göstermektedir. Moskova’nın, ‘görevini Moskova’nın jeopolitik çıkarlarının korunması ve Türki- tamamlayarak Karabağ’dan çekilmek’ gibi bir vizyonu ye – Azerbaycan ittifakının dengelenmesi misyonunun yoktur. uygulayıcısı konumundadır. • Askeri olarak, Rusya Federasyonu Silahlı Kuvvetle- • Karabağ Ermeni işgal idaresi ile Rusya Federasyonu ri’nin, Suriye ve Ukrayna tecrübelerinden elde ettiği arasında doğrudan bir stratejik hava köprüsü kurulma- kazanımların, Karabağ Barış Gücü’ne aktarıldığı mü- sı çalışmaları dikkat çekicidir. Bahse konu hattın, Mos- şahede edilmektedir. Ayrıca, ilgili görev kuvvetinin kova ile Azerbaycan toprakları üzerinde inşa edilmiş muharebe kuruluşunda, barışı koruma görevlerine olan Karabağ Ermeni işgal idaresi arasında gelişen tahsis edilmiş birlikler dışında, elit muharip unsurlar ve entegrasyonu ileri bir aşamaya taşıyacağı değerlen- istihbarat unsurları bulunması da, üzerinde durulması dirilmektedir. gereken bir diğer konudur. 2 DışDış Politika Politika && GüvenlikGüvenlik 2021/02/TR2021/06/TR Giriş: Rus Jeopolitiği ve Kafkasya’da Yeni Durum 2. Karabağ Savaşı sonucu Azerbaycan’ın anlamlı toprak Ayrıca, Azerbaycan Silahlı Kuvvetleri envanterinde bulu- kazanımı ve daha da önemlisi, Karabağ’da Ermeni işgal nan Türkiye ve İsrail savunma teknolojilerinin, Ermeni mu- nüvesinin rayonların kaybı ile savunmasız kalması, Er- harip unsurlarının kullandığı Sovyet-Rus envanterine karşı menistan’ı ve Karabağ’daki Ermeni idaresini Rusya’ya ve göstermiş olduğu kesin üstünlük, Şoygu & Gerasimov ko- Kremlin’in korumasına daha da bağımlı hale getirmiştir.1 mutasındaki Rusya Federasyonu askeri liderliği için ciddi Yine, Azerbaycan taarruzunun Kavkaz 2020 Tatbikatı’ndan bir alarm anlamına gelmiştir. hemen sonra, Rus güçlerinin bölgede yoğun yığınaklan- masının olduğu bir dönemde başlamış olması, Moskova Karabağ Rus ‘barış gücü’, yukarıda alıntılanan ve özetle- için bir diğer endişe faktörüdür.2 Zira Bakü, Türkiye ile stra- nen mülahazalar çerçevesinde şekillenmiştir. İncelemeye tejik ittifakına dayanarak, daha bağımsız bir askeri siyasa konu Rus faaliyetinin amacı, bir barış gücü misyonunun izlemektedir. Moskova’nın ise, on yıllardır sürdürdüğü den- klasik görevlerini icra etmenin ötesinde, Rusya’nın Kafkas- ge siyasetini devam ettirme marjı giderek daralmaktadır. ya’daki çıkarlarının ve jeostratejik dizaynının korunmasıdır. Askeri – Stratejik Değerlendirme 10 Kasım 2020’den bu yana yürürlükte olan ateşkes anlaş- General Rüstem Muradov’un askeri şahsiyeti ve hususi- masının 3 ve 4. maddeleri gereğince Rusya Federasyonu, yetleridir. Dağıstan kökenli olan General Muradov, daha 1960 askerî personel, 90 zırhlı personel taşıyıcı, 380 askeri önce Rusya Federasyonu Silahlı Kuvvetleri’nin Suriye ha- araç ve özel teçhizattan oluşan barışı koruma gücüyle şim- rekatında, Deyr ez-Zor bölgesi dahil olmak üzere, üst dü- dilik 5 yıllık bir süre için Dağlık Karabağ (DK) arazisinde zey görev yapmış bir komutandır. Kariyeri boyunca, ordu bulunmaktadır.3 Ayrıca, ilgili görev gücüne tahsis edilen komutanlığı dahil, farklı seviyelerde birçok birliği komuta kara-konuşlu ateş-destek vasıtaları ve bilhassa çok nam- etmiş olan General Muradov, 1990’larda her iki Rus – Çe- lulu roketatar sistemleri de dikkat çekicidir.4 çen savaşında yer almış, 2016 yılında Rusya Federasyonu Silahlı Kuvvetleri’nin Ukrayna, Donbas’taki faaliyetlerine Anlaşma, sözü edilen barışı koruma gücünün görevlerini iştirak etmiştir.6 ve sınırlarını Azerbaycan ve Ermenistan ile daha sonraki görüşmelere bırakmış ve meşruiyetini bu iki devletin rıza- Bu noktada, Rusya Federasyonu Silahlı Kuvvetleri’nin sına dayandırmıştır. Kasım 2020’ye dek eski Sovyet coğ- Suriye tecrübesinin General Muradov dahil olmak üzere rafyasında Rus askerî varlığına sahip olmayan tek çatışma askeri personele katkılarına ayrı bir parantez açmakta da bölgesi Dağlık Karabağ iken,5 bu durum belirsiz bir süre yarar var. Suriye harekatı, Rus askeri kapasitesi ve per- için son bulmuştur. Barış gücünün bölgede meşruiyet kay- sonelin harbe hazırlığı açısından dikkat çekici bir trendin nağını uluslararası anlaşmalardan almayan ve Birleşmiş de başlangıcı olmuştur. Genelkurmay Başkanı Valery Ge- Milletler nezdinde henüz meşru olmayan mevcudiyeti, hem rasimov’un belirttiği üzere, halihazırda görevde olan tümen bölge hem uluslararası toplum için soru işaretlerini berabe- komutanlarının hemen tamamı, karma sınıflar (combined rinde getirmektedir. arms) tugay ve alay komutanlarının yarısından fazlası, Suri- ye’de muharip görev icra etmişleridir. Ekim 2018 itibariyle, Rus Barışı Koruma Gücü’ne ilişkin kuşkusuz en dikkat çe- Suriye’de görev yapmış Rusya Federasyonu Silahlı Kuv- kici detaylardan biri de, ilgili görev grubunun komutanı vetleri personeli altmış binden fazladır.7 1 Dumitru Minzarari, “Russia’s Stake in the Nagorno-Karabakh War: Accident or Design?”, SWP, 12 Kasım 2020, https://www.swp-berlin. org/en/publication/russias-stake-in-the-nagorno-karabakh-war-accident-or-design/ [Erişim tarihi: 15 Mayıs 2021]. 2 Ibid. 3 Statement by President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and President of the Russian Federa- tion, President of Russia, 10 Kasım 2020, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/64384 [Erişim tarihi: 15 Mayıs 2021]. 4 “Russia moves rocket launchers towards Nagorno-Karabakh after peace deal”, Reuters, 16 Kasım 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/ us-armenia-azerbaijan-rockets-idUSKBN27W2H0 [Erişim tarihi: 15 Mayıs 2021]. 5 Jack Losh, “Russian Troops in Nagorno-Karabakh ‘Clearly a Win for Moscow’”, Foreign Policy, 25 Kasım, 2020, https://foreignpolicy. com/2020/11/25/russian-troops-nagorno-karabakh-peackeepers-win-moscow-armenia-azerbaijan/[Erişim tarihi: 15 Mayıs 2021]. 6 Ayrıntılı bilgi için, bkz.: Komsomolskaya Pravda, 11 Kasım 2020, https://www.kp.ru/daily/2171207/4320131/ [Erişim tarihi: 15 Mayıs 2021]. 7 Ayrıntılı bir yayın için bkz.: Mason Clark. The Russian Military’s Lessons Learned in Syria, ISW, 2021. 3 DışDış Politika Politika && GüvenlikGüvenlik 2021/02/TR2021/06/TR General Rüstem Muradov, Rus Devlet Başkanı Putin tarafından, ‘Rusya’nın Kahramanı’ Nişanı ile taltif edilmiştir. Nisbi olarak, Rusya Federasyonu Hava-Uzay Kuvvetleri, ğunu belirtmeliyiz. Zira, savaşın ardından Rus uzmanların Suriye’de yürüyen harekat kapsamında en çok tecrübe yayınları, Ermeni güçleri ile Azerbaycan Silahlı Kuvvetle- kazanmış aktör olarak ön plana çıkmaktadır. 2020 yılı itiba- ri arasındaki çatışmaların, esasen, İsrail ve Türk silahları riyle, taktik askeri havacılık pilotlarının yüzde 87’si, stratejik ile Sovyet-Rus çözümleri arasındaki asimetriyi de ortaya havacılık pilotlarının (Tu-95, Tu-160 gibi ağır bombardıman koyduğunu değerlendirmiştir.9 Dolayısıyla Ruslar açısın- uçakları pilotları) %60’ı, döner-kanatlı platform pilotlarının dan Karabağ, sadece Sovyet dünyasının - bugünkü arka ise (taarruz ve genel maksat helikopter pilotları), %91’inin bahçesinin, etki altında tutulması değil, aynı zamanda, Suriye’de görev yaptığı bildirilmektedir.8 2020 yılı verileri Kafkasya’da savunma teknolojilerine ilişkin trendlerin de ile, söz konusu tecrübe, toplam 44,000 muharip sorti çer- kontrolden çıkmaması için önem arz etmektedir. Bu bağ- çevesinde elde edilmiştir. Söz konusu durum, Rusya Fe- lamda bir diğer gündem, Azerbaycan tarafından ağır bir derasyonu Savunma Bakanı General Sergey Şoygu ve Ge- savunma-ekonomisi yıkımına uğratılan Ermeni güçlerinin nelkurmay Başkanı General Valery Gerasimov tarafından yeniden teçhiz edilmesidir.10 temsil edilen Rus askeri liderliğinin, personelin muharip tecrübesini artırmak için yoğun bir Suriye rotasyon progra- Rus Barışı Koruma Gücü’nün muharebe kuruluşu da, mı yürüttüğünü göstermektedir. Moskova’nın stratejik amaçlarının kestirilmesi hususunda dikkat çekicidir. İlgili görev kuvvetine katılan başat unsur- General Rüstem Muradov ve Karabağ ‘barış gücü’ çaba- lardan biri, Merkez Askeri Bölgesi birliklerinden olan ve larınının yukarıda özetlenen çerçeve ile birlikte değerlen- Rusya’nın barışı koruma misyonlarını yürüten 15. Motorize dirilmesinde yarar görmekteyiz. Zira, Suriye’den öğrenilen Tugay’dır.11 Bununla birlikte, açık-kaynaklı istihbarat
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