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Yakult Honsha (2267 / 2267 JP) Rating UNDERPERFORM* Price (29 Aug 16, ¥) 4,740 INITIATION

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Yakult Honsha (2267 / 2267 JP) Rating UNDERPERFORM* Price (29 Aug 16, ¥) 4,740 INITIATION 30 August 2016 Asia Pacific/Japan Equity Research Packaged Foods (Food (Japan)) / MARKET WEIGHT Yakult Honsha (2267 / 2267 JP) Rating UNDERPERFORM* Price (29 Aug 16, ¥) 4,740 INITIATION Target price (¥) 4,200¹ Chg to TP (%) -11.4 Market cap. (¥ bn) 783.69 (US$ 7.66) Forecast sluggish profit growth near term Enterprise value (¥ bn) 755.78 Number of shares (mn) 165.33 ■ Initiate coverage: We initiate coverage of Yakult Honsha with a ¥4,200 target Free float (%) 55.0 price (potential return −11.4%) and an UNDERPERFORM rating. The company 52-week price range 6,780 - 4,655 generates nearly half of its overall profits in Asian markets, centered on China *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each analyst's or each team's respective sector. and Indonesia. Growth in China has slowed in recent years due to stiffer ¹Target price is for 12 months. competition, so a rebound in this market will probably take time. Yakult generates more than 20% of its OP in the Americas including Mexico and Brazil, Research Analysts but growth in the region has stalled due to higher penetration rates and slower Masashi Mori macroeconomic growth. Pharmaceuticals too, have been hit by weak profits. A 81 3 4550 9695 muted share price suggests equity markets have already priced in sluggish [email protected] earnings. We take a bearish stance on Yakult relative to the sector, as the stock’s valuations continue to appear somewhat demanding. ■ Investment theme: Asian markets are the main focus for investors. In Indonesia, where door-to-door delivery accounts for around 50% of sales, Yakult’s business base remains stable (impervious to consumer sentiment and weather factors). In the effective absence of rivals, we expect Yakult to maintain double-digit volume growth for now. China, however, poses issues. Sales growth slowed to high single-digits for the first time in 2015. We expect heated competition with comparable products in the general retail channel to continue. ■ Valuation and risks: We derive our target price by applying a P/E of roughly 28x to our FY3/17 EPS estimate. We see little prospect for Yakult to regain its share price premium in the near term due to sluggish earnings, and regard the company’s historical 10-year average valuations minus one standard deviation, a level close to the domestic food sector average, as reasonable. Upside risks: (1) substantial improvement in China market growth, (2) greater-than-expected expansion in Brazil, Mexico and other Latin American markets; (3) margin improvement in Japan; (4) sharply higher sales of generics at the pharmaceutical business; and (5) further softening in input costs. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 3/16A 3/17E 3/18E 3/19E Price (LHS) Rebased Rel (RHS) Sales (¥ bn) 390.4 377.0 381.0 390.0 10000 140 Operating profit (¥ bn) 40.1 34.5 35.0 37.0 8000 120 Recurring profit (¥ bn) 50.6 43.9 44.5 46.7 6000 100 4000 80 Net income (¥ bn) 28.8 25.4 25.7 27.2 EPS (¥) 174.5 153.7 155.5 164.6 Change from previous EPS (%) n.a. IBES Consensus EPS (¥) n.a. 163.8 178.4 191.5 The price relative chart measures performance against the EPS growth (%) 15.2 -11.9 1.2 5.8 TOPIX which closed at 1313.24 on 29/08/16 P/E (x) 28.6 30.8 30.5 28.8 On 29/08/16 the spot exchange rate was ¥102.35/US$1 Dividend yield (%) 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 EV/EBITDA(x) 12.7 12.9 12.4 11.6 Performance over 1M 3M 12M P/B (x) 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 Absolute (%) -4.0 -12.9 -30.9 ROE(%) 8.8 7.4 7.1 7.1 Relative (%) -3.3 -8.0 -15.6 Net debt/equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, IFIS, Credit Suisse estimates. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 30 August 2016 Valuation and risks Share price valuation We derive our target price by applying a P/E of roughly 28x to our FY3/17 EPS estimate. For now we see little sign of the previous share price premium being restored, in view of lackluster growth at the overseas beverages business, and the outlook for more tough times at the pharmaceutical business. We base our multiple on Yakult’s historical 10-year average valuations minus one standard deviation. We regard the level as reasonable, as it is close to the average domestic food sector forward multiple of roughly 25x. Figure 1: P/E (12-month forward CS forecasts base) Figure 2: EV/EBITDA (12-month forward CS forecasts base) (x) (x) 50 21 19 45 +2σ 44.4 +2σ 18.5 17 40 +1σ 15.5 +1σ 38.8 15 35 13 Ave. 12.5 Ave. 33.2 11 30 -1σ 9.5 -1σ 27.6 9 25 7 -2σ 6.6 -2σ 22.0 20 5 06/5 07/5 08/5 09/5 10/5 11/5 12/5 13/5 14/5 15/5 16/5 06/5 07/5 08/5 09/5 10/5 11/5 12/5 13/5 14/5 15/5 16/5 Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse estimates Risks Upside risks include: (1) substantial improvement in China market growth, (2) greater- than-expected expansion in Brazil, Mexico and other Latin American markets; (3) margin improvement in Japan; (4) sharply higher sales of generics at the pharmaceutical business; and (5) further softening in input costs. Awareness of probiotics is on the rise in Japan as consumers increasingly focus on the value of lactic acid bacterium. Yakult had placed a greater priority on developing overseas markets so far in terms of managerial resources, but it is now stepping up moves to prop up the Japanese market. The company aims to beef up its sales channels centered on the door-to-door delivery model, product portfolio, and marketing strategy. Yakult’s Japan business could re-enter a phase of profit growth if its renewed investment in the above proves successful. We take a neutral stance on Yakult’s strategy in this regard, so success here would imply an upside earnings risk versus our outlook. Yakult Honsha (2267 / 2267 JP) 2 30 August 2016 Corporate profile Yakult represents Japan in probiotics Yakult traces its origins back to Minoru Shirota, a medical doctor and the company’s founder, who successfully created/cultured a special strain of the bacterium Lactobacillus casei Shirota during research at the Kyoto Imperial University’s School of Medicine in 1930. He began selling beverages in Fukuoka City under the trademark of Yakult in 1935. After the war, Shirota expanded Yakult’s beverage sales agency network all over Japan. Yakult Honsha was established in 1955 to oversee the network of agencies nationwide. Yakult later diversified into other beverages and food products and also entered the market for cosmetics and pharmaceuticals. As a result of the company’s proactive involvement in overseas business development, it now sells its products in over 30 countries (daily global fermented milk beverage sales volume of 30mn units). The company also boasts a broad sales network consisting of a unique door-to-door sales force of “Yakult Ladies” and general retail stores. Yakult currently generates nearly half of its profits in Asian markets, particularly China and Indonesia. Yakult generates more than 20% of its profits in the Americas including Mexico and Brazil, but growth in the region has stalled in recent years. Sluggish profits in pharmaceuticals mean that Asian markets will remain Yakult’s largest profit driver over the foreseeable future. Figure 3: Sales by business segment Figure 4: OP by business segment Others Pharma 5% Others 8% Pharma 2% 9% Japan (Bev) Europe (Bev) 17% 2% Europe (Bev) Japan (Bev) 1% 48% Asia/Oceania (Bev) 24% Americas (Bev) 23% Americas Asia/Oceania (Bev) (Bev) 48% 13% Source: Company data (FY3/16A), Credit Suisse Source: Company data (FY3/16A), Credit Suisse Longer-term strategy and shareholder returns The FY3/21 OP target outlined in the long-term vision “Yakult Vision 2020” is ¥50.0bn (OPM 10%; FY3/17 OP target reduced from ¥43.0bn to ¥36.5bn). The company’s vision statement calls for (1) global value promotion activities for probiotics, Yakult’s mainstay product, (2) R&D capability bolstering for scientifically proven new products, and (3) contribution to people’s health globally through innovation focused on oncology. Yakult’s dividend policy places the utmost priority on maintaining stable dividends. Based on the company’s 1) solid financial base, 2) stable cash flow, and 3) a business model requiring little or no large M&A deals or capital investment, we note significant room for improving shareholder returns. However, given the company’s conservative outlook on financial strategy, we think there is little likelihood of the company stepping up shareholder returns. At present, we anticipate Yakult to merely raise dividends gradually. Yakult Honsha (2267 / 2267 JP) 3 30 August 2016 Figure 5: Dividend, buyback and dividend payout ratio Figure 6: Net debt, D/E ratios (JPY bn) (%) (JPY bn) (%) Net debt D/E ratio (RHS) 45.0 Dividend (LHS) 100 10 45 0 40.0 90 40 Buyback (LHS) -10 35.0 80 35 70 -20 30.0 Dividend payout ratio 30 (RHS) 60 -30 25.0 25 50 -40 20.0 20 40 -50 15.0 15 30 -60 10 10.0 20 -70 -80 5 5.0 10 -90 0 0.0 0 Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Note: Positive indicates net debt Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Trends in the overseas beverage business We believe beverage business in emerging markets is the largest profit driver for Yakult.
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