30 August 2016 Asia Pacific/Japan Equity Research Packaged Foods (Food (Japan)) / MARKET WEIGHT Yakult Honsha (2267 / 2267 JP) Rating UNDERPERFORM* Price (29 Aug 16, ¥) 4,740 INITIATION Target price (¥) 4,200¹ Chg to TP (%) -11.4 Market cap. (¥ bn) 783.69 (US$ 7.66) Forecast sluggish profit growth near term Enterprise value (¥ bn) 755.78 Number of shares (mn) 165.33 ■ Initiate coverage: We initiate coverage of Yakult Honsha with a ¥4,200 target Free float (%) 55.0 price (potential return −11.4%) and an UNDERPERFORM rating. The company 52-week price range 6,780 - 4,655 generates nearly half of its overall profits in Asian markets, centered on China *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each analyst's or each team's respective sector. and Indonesia. Growth in China has slowed in recent years due to stiffer ¹Target price is for 12 months. competition, so a rebound in this market will probably take time. Yakult generates more than 20% of its OP in the Americas including Mexico and Brazil, Research Analysts but growth in the region has stalled due to higher penetration rates and slower Masashi Mori macroeconomic growth. Pharmaceuticals too, have been hit by weak profits. A 81 3 4550 9695 muted share price suggests equity markets have already priced in sluggish
[email protected] earnings. We take a bearish stance on Yakult relative to the sector, as the stock’s valuations continue to appear somewhat demanding. ■ Investment theme: Asian markets are the main focus for investors. In Indonesia, where door-to-door delivery accounts for around 50% of sales, Yakult’s business base remains stable (impervious to consumer sentiment and weather factors).