Sonorensis ARIZONA-SONORA DESERT MUSEUM Sonorensis INTRODUCTION ARIZONA-SONORA DESERT MUSEUM 2018 Debra Colodner, Ph.D. Director of Conservation Education and Science Arizona-Sonora Desert Museum Volume 38, Number 1 2018 With the release of the Fourth National Climate Assessment1 The Arizona-Sonora Desert Museum in November, 2018, and the Global Warming of 1.5oC Special Co-founded in 1952 by 2 Deep Desert Photography Deep Desert Photography Report in October, climate change has been in the news a lot Arthur N. Pack and William H. Carr Blaine T recently. But climate change is also an old story. Our cultural jpeterson Craig Ivanyi consciousness is steeped in stories of devastating droughts Executive Director and floods that transformed societies, perhaps from some an- Debra Colodner cient memories of the tumultuous transition from the last Ice Arobas Netta Director, Conservation Education Age. However, the changes in climate we are seeing today are and Science, Editor the beginning of an entirely new chapter. Modern civilization Martina Clary Viktorus Design and Production Contents evolved and expanded in a period of relatively stable climate. 1 Introduction We’ve planted and built densely on coastlines, in floodplains, in Sonorensis is published as a benefit to the Debra Colodner, Ph.D. deserts and in fire-prone forests. Adapting to the changes we Arizona-Sonora Desert Museum membership as are likely to see will be difficult for many, especially those with a resource for furthering understanding of the 2-5 Managing for Change in the Sonoran Desert: What are we doing? the fewest resources. The latest reports say that we still have the Charles T Charles T Penden Sonoran Desert Region. 2021 N. Kinney Road, What can we do? EDI Tucson, Arizona 85743. ©2018 by the Arizona- chance to avert the most drastic impacts, those that will occur Gregg Garfin, Ph.D. Above, and clockwise: A massive wall of dust rolling into a rural area west of Phoenix, Arizona; Elegant trogon have been moving north; Saguaros on hillside; Lake Mead; Butterfly finding sustenance in a drying wash; Invasive buffelgrass. Sonora Desert Museum, Inc. All rights reserved. No if the Earth warms by 2oC or more, but that it will take rapid and material may be reproduced in whole or in part 6-9 Adapting to Climate Change on Tohono O’odham Nation large adjustments to our economy and infrastructure to do this. without prior written permission by the publisher. Selso Villegas, Ph.D. The alternative is to expect even larger, more costly disruption Visit us at www.desertmuseum.org to our economy and infrastructure in the coming decades. One of the most important changes in our region is the dry- us changes that are already occurring, and how land managers are date of the consequences of climate change for the United 10-15 Through the Looking Glass: Climate Change and the Future Preparing for and adapting to climate change is no longer just ing trend that we are already seeing. In the third article, “Through adapting their strategies for monitoring and stewarding our public States. This report, representing the work of 13 federal agen- Cover: Illustration by Kayla Velasquez, Graphic of Water in the Tucson Region Designer, Arizona-Sonora Desert Museum the realm of academics and futurists, it is becoming part of the the Looking Glass; climate change and the future of water in lands. Finally, we offer some suggestions for further learning about cies, warns that if significant steps are not taken to reduce Katharine Jocobs, Ph.D. Back cover: Close-up of cover illustration. every-day calculus of just about anyone who plans for the future. the Tucson region”, Dr. Katharine Jacobs gives us a glimpse at our the actions you can take at the personal or community scales. greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere in the next decades, 16-20 Climate Change, Forests and Fire in the Southwestern US and In this issue of Sonorensis, we focus on climate change adaptation potential water futures and the tools water managers are using to A common theme that emerges from these articles is that humans we will suffer hundreds of billions of dollars in damage from We gratefully acknowledge all the authors, translators, sea level rise, other damage to infrastructure, heat-related photographers, and organizations who contributed Northern Mexico – what changes are we already seeing in our region, what we are prepare for them, in the absence of Alice’s magical looking glass. have changed the very “nature of nature,” and we need to create articles, photos, or maps for this issue of Sonorensis. Donald Falk, Ph.D. & Citlali Cortés-Montaño, Ph.D. likely to see in the future, and how are we preparing to deal with Another major impact of climate change, very evident in recent new systems for managing this humbling responsibility. Harkening deaths and other impacts. This adds up to taking 10% off the them. In the first article, “Managing for Change in the Sonoran Des- news, is the increase in the frequency of large fires. In “Climate back to Lewis Carroll, time is of the essence for us, as it was for size of the US economy by the end of this century. Of course, Photos on this page, above left: A farmer in Arlington 21-27 Taking the Long View: Ecological Monitoring Helps National trying to clear his field with a controlled burn ended ert: What are we doing? What can we do?” author Dr. Gregg Garfin Change, Forests and Fire in the Southwestern US and Northern Alice’s friend, the White Rabbit. action is needed at a global scale, but our region, and the US can Parks, and All of Us, Prepare for Change up setting fire to the dry brush in the Gila River. Winds explains adaptation planning, and looks at how those we entrust Mexico”, Dr. Don Falk and Dr. Citlali Cortés-Montaño compare As we plan for a warmer, more arid future in the west, it is play an outsized role via political, scientific and technological Andy Hubbard, Ph.D., Alice Wondrak Biel, Ph.D. & Sarah Studd, Ph.D. gusting to 40 MPH fanned the flames for the whole day. to plan for our future are dealing with both the certainties and forests and forest management in the Southwest United States important to make choices that don’t further increase green- leadership, if we choose to do so. Movin’ on Up! Catherine Barlett Above right: El Mirage, October 2, 2018. Rainfall from the uncertainties of future climate. In the second article, “Adapting to and Northwest Mexico. In the final article, “Taking the Long View: house gas levels in the atmosphere - the underlying driver of 1. Fourth National Climate Assessment, US Global Change Re- remnants of Hurricane Rosa overflows into desert bushes Climate Change and Buffelgrass Kim Franklin, Ph.D. Climate Change on the Tohono O’odham Nation”, Dr. Selso Villegas ecological monitoring helps National Parks, and all of us, prepare modern day climate change - and in fact do the opposite, by search Program, https://www.globalchange.gov/nca4 at Basin Park in El Mirage Arizona, before flowing into the Agua Fria River. 28-29 What Can You Do? Resources focuses in on the Tohono O’odham Nation and shares its planning for change,” Dr. Andy Hubbard, Dr. Alice Wondrak Biel, and Dr. making changes that reduce our emissions. The Fourth National 2. Global Warming of 1.5oC Special Report, Intergovernmental processes and preparations for future climate conditions. Sarah Studd look more broadly at impacts to ecosystems, showing Climate Assessment presents the most certain predictions to Panel on Climate Change, https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ S 2018 Sonorensis | Introduction 1 across Arizona’s Sonoran Desert region have increased over people. Paradoxically, increased climate and weather vari- to climate-related changes, through drought plans, flood 1.5°F during the last 3 decades when compared with the ability—drier dry spells and wetter wet spells—may set the control measures, floodplain zoning requirements, and pub- first half of the 20th century. The region has been in the grip stage for extreme floods and erosion impacts. lic health surveillance for insects, like mosquitoes, that carry Managing for change in the of drought for close to two decades, with precipitation de- In addition to the direct impacts of climate and diseases. One of the key tenets of adaptation thinking is an creasing in spring, summer, and fall seasons during the last 3 weather changes in the Sonoran Desert region, indirect orientation toward assessing and managing risk. Risk is often decades. One characteristic of drought is a marked decrease impacts are projected to affect ecosystem processes, assessed by examining the likelihood of an event or trend in regional winter and spring soil moisture, compared with such as the frequency and extent of wildland fire, the and the potential magnitude of the impact associated with What are we doing? What can we do? natural variations. Concurrent with these changes has been a timing of peak streamflows, and the degree of post- it. For example, a community might plan for flood risk by significant increase in large fires since the early 1980s. fire erosion. The timing of phenological events—that assessing plausible changes to flood flow levels and compar- Son o r an De s e r t : Cautious projections of future climate from the NCA4 show is, changes in the life cycles of animals and plants – is ing these potential levels with the estimated cost of damages 2-4°F increases in Sonoran Desert region annual average tem- shifting as well, affecting the population dynamics of to buildings, land and infrastructure. Engineers and emer- peratures by mid-century, and 6-10°F increases in Sonoran Des- insects and their interactions with vegetation, and the gency managers use this time-honored approach.