Final Report: Transportation Study

CIVIL ENGINEERING

CONTRACT NO. R.040-030-2011/1D-ER

FINAL REPORT: TRANSPORTATION STUDY

FOR THE

FUTURE ROUTE P166 (R40-3)

APRIL 2015

PREPARED FOR: THE SOUTH AFRICAN NATIONAL ROADS AGENCY SOC LIMITED (SANRAL) PRIVATE BAG X17 LYNNWOOD RIDGE 0040

PREPARED BY: ENDECON UBUNTU ENGINEERING CONSULTANTS P. O. BOX 6215 NELSPRUIT 1200 Draft Report: Transportation Study for the Future Route P166 (R40-3) Contract No. R.040-030-2011/1D-ER

TITLE OF REPORT:

Draft Report: Transportation Study for the Future Route P166 (R40-3)

Report File Name: N2317 - 22.04.2015_Rev2 Final Traffic Overview

Client: The South African National Roads Agency SOC Limited (SANRAL)

Prepared by: H.D.J. Schreuder Signed

Reviewed by: H.D.J. Schreuder Signed

Approved by: J. L. Venter Signed

DESCRIPTION OF REVISIONS REVISION DATE Draft A 18 April 2014

Final B 27 May 2014

Revised Final C 21 April 2015

Revised Final D 22 April 2015

I Draft Report: Transportation Study for the Future Route P166 (R40-3) Contract No. R.040-030-2011/1D-ER

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

SUMMARY & CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the findings of this study can be summarised as follow:

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 A review of historic traffic counts along the R40 indicates an average annual traffic growth rate in the region of 4%, whilst the recent increase in heavy vehicle traffic evident along the R40 due to increased mining activities is manifested in extremely high growth rates in heavy vehicle traffic in excess of 25% per annum at certain locations.  The Average Daily Traffic (ADT) along the R40 peaks between White River and Nelspruit at 13870 vehicles per direction per day (veh/dir/day) with the nearest (in terms of volumes) other count being recorded as 3467 veh/dir/day in the Bushbuckridge area.  Recent traffic counts (August 2013) indicate the highest peak hour flows in the vicinity of the Nels River Bridge to be in the region of 2700veh/hr which implies Average Daily Traffic of 22113 vehicles per direction per day (veh/dir/day).  In terms of the R40’s capacity availability and peak hour volumes, Table 1 clearly indicates a road under severe pressure approaching capacity, even considering the temporary relief provided by its recent upgrade to 3 lanes per direction in the Riverside area.  Notwithstanding the above, the current plans for the Mpumalanga University imply the addition of major additional traffic flows to the R40 and upon completion its anticipated trip generation is in excess of 4000veh/hr with approximately two thirds of that total using the R40 (at least 1 additional lane of traffic required to be accommodated in both directions).  We are therefore moving towards a situation where the R40 will definitely require upgrading to 6 lanes (along its entire length) in future to accommodate local development traffic and the P166 must then provide the means to accommodate through- or regional traffic – upgrading the R40 to 8 lanes is deemed impractical as it makes the execution of right-turning manoeuvres at its intersections challenging (you have to cross 4 lanes of oncoming traffic when turning right).  Included under ANNEXURE C are modelling outputs as per the modelled scenarios whilst Table 2 summarises the forecasted traffic volumes as per the modelling outputs with a maximum ADT of more than 23000 veh/dir/day being forecasted for the 2024 scenario.  Even with the P166 Road in place, the traffic generated by the developments along the R40 will ensure that its volumes remain significant, thereby justifying the call for it to be upgraded to 3 lanes per direction along its entire length in the not too distant future regardless of whether the P166 Road is constructed or not.  The summarised tables of each Origin-Destination survey location are contained under ANNEXURE G and a review of the results indicates the following:  R40 surveys: o The highest diversion rates (expressed as percentage of total flow) were observed on the northern- or southern edges of the P166 extent with the lowest anticipated

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diversion being 12% (Rockys Drift inbound) and the highest anticipated diversion being 73% (White River inbound). o Depending of the relevant section from Riverside or Mataffin northward, directional total diversion volumes of anything between 800 veh/hr to more than 1200 veh/hr were found to possibly divert should the P166 become available. o The southern sections were less prolific with directional total diversion volumes of more in the order of 500veh/hr being evident.  R538 surveys: o The very high presence of local traffic and the general lack of regional traffic on the R538 implicitly meant much lower diversion rates were possible. o The highest diversion rates (expressed as percentage of total flow) were observed on the northern edge of the R538 with the lowest anticipated diversion being 0% (both southern survey locations) and the highest anticipated diversion being 14% (White River outbound). o Depending of the relevant section, the maximum directional total diversion volumes of less than 50veh/hr were found to possibly divert to the P166.  N4 surveys: o The highest diversion rates (expressed as percentage of total flow) were observed on the western edge of the N4 Northern Bypass with the lowest anticipated diversion being 5% (Valencia inbound) and the highest anticipated diversion being 48% (Mataffin/Halls Gateway inbound). o Once again due to the significant share of local commuter traffic from Nsikazi on the eastern edge of the N4 Northern Bypass at Valencia, the potential for diversion to the P166 once again diminishes greatly. o Total diversion volumes of anything between 40veh/hr (east) to more than 300 veh/hr (west) were found to possibly divert should the P166 become available.  Considering current average travel times of 18 minutes, it is anticipated that travelling between the Madiba Dr (R40)/Andrew St intersection in Nelspruit and the Madiba Dr (R40)/Sabie Rd intersection in White River with the P166 will take approximately 12 minutes per direction, representing a 33% saving in travel time during the relevant peak hours.  A review of the relevant traffic counts indicate that the ore carrier trucks traffic constitutes anything between 20 and 50 trucks per direction per hour, implying total daily truck volumes in the range of between 240 and 600 trucks per direction per day with the majority (at least 80%) currently making use of the R40 rather than the old R538 via Numbi.  Although the truck flows on the R538 are proportionately high in terms of the total vehicle flows (up to 30% has been observed), it pales in comparison to the flows measured on the

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R40 where anything from 75 to more than a 100 trucks per direction per hour are observed, translating to daily flows approaching 1000 trucks per direction per day.  Although potentially beneficial in terms of environmental considerations, from a traffic flow point of view the proposed alternative alignment to the north of White River significantly impacts on the effectiveness of the P166 and it is strongly recommended that the original alignment (as already proclaimed) be maintained, based on the following: o Population served: The R538 from the Numbi / Masoyi area serves a local population in excess of 125 000 people along its length compared to a comparative local population of less than 25 000 people being served by the R40 from Hazyview and therefore it is imperative that priority be given to maintaining continuity between the P166 and the R538 in order to most effectively serve the greater local population that potentially will derive benefit from the P166. o Travel distance- & travel times: The proposed alternative alignment to the north of White River will result in the majority of potential P166 road users being penalized by an additional 1.8km in travel distance (with associated increased travel times) to access the P166 and the shortest and most direct route to Nelspruit for traffic from the R538 will therefore still be via the White River CBD (as is currently the case) and more road users will be inclined to forego the option of using the P166 thereby not only greatly diminishing its effectiveness but also providing little potential relief from traffic congestion to the White River CBD. o Public transport routes: Considering the larger population being served to the east via the R538, the majority of affected public transport routes (>75% of affected routes) will access the P166 from the east via the R538 (as opposed to via the R40), therefore further highlighting the need to maintain the original alignment in order to benefit the majority of public transport users affected. o R40 traffic is not negatively affected: The originally proposed (and already proclaimed) route alignment through White River will have no negative impact on R40 traffic as the continuity along the R40 with free-flow access to the P166 is retained with unchanged travel distances. Transversely though the proposed alternative alignment to the north of White River will negatively impact R538 traffic (the majority of traffic in this case, 60% of traffic counted here recently) due to the continuation with the R538 being disrupted and the net result is therefore a negative impact if all traffic affected is considered.

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TABLE OF CONTENT

1. INTRODUCTION ...... 1

1.1 GENERAL ...... 1

1.2 PURPOSE & SCOPE OF THIS REPORT ...... 2

2. FUNCTIONAL ROAD NETWORK & ROUTE FUNCTIONALITY ...... 2

2.1 ROAD CLASSIFICATION ...... 2

3. R40 CAPACITY & TRAFFIC GROWTH ASSESSMENT ...... 5

3.2 LOCALISED TRAFFIC FLOWS ...... 5

3.3 TRAFFIC GROWTH FORECASTS FOR THE R40 & P166: MODELLING BACKGROUND ..... 6

3.3 TRAFFIC GROWTH FORECASTS FOR THE R40 & P166: MODELLING RESULTS ...... 9

4. DESIRE LINES ASSESSMENT ...... 10

4.1 BACKGROUND ...... 10

4.2 OD-SURVEY RESULTS OVERVIEW ...... 11

4.3 TRAVEL TIME RESULTS OVERVIEW ...... 13

4.4 HEAVY VEHICLE TRAFFIC FLOWS ...... 13

5. SUMMARY & CONCLUSION ...... 16

REFERENCES ...... 20

ANNEXURE A: MBOMBELA ROAD NETWORK CLASSIFICATION ANNEXURE B: REGIONAL TRAFFIC VOLUMES ANNEXURE C: MODELLING OUTPUTS ANNEXURE D: OD-SURVEY LOCATIONS ANNEXURE E: OD-SURVEY INTERVIEW FORMS ANNEXURE F: TRAFFIC COUNT SHEETS ANNEXURE G: OD-SURVEY RESULTS SUMMARY SHEETS ANNEXURE H: WHITER RIVER ALTERNATIVE ALIGNMENT

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LOCALITY PLAN

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1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND

This report was developed in support of the Economic & Transport Study being compiled by Demacon for the future P166 Road and constitutes a brief summary of the Transportation Study conducted by Endecon Ubuntu. The study draws on a plethora of historical Transportation Planning work done by Endecon Ubuntu as part of their appointment from Mbombela Local Municipality to review and update the Mbombela Roads Master Plan. As there are various other documents being presented elsewhere as part of the planning of the P166 Road, this report will be kept concise and focus primarily on the Transportation Planning aspects.

1.2 GENERAL

The R40 Route forms an important and strategic north-south link to the north-eastern portions of South Africa’s Northern provinces. It links Swaziland in the south with Phalaborwa, Tzaneen and Polokwane in the north. This north-south spine provides access to the popular tourism areas in Mpumalanga and the new mining areas of the Limpopo province. Previous planning defined a parallel route immediately west of the R40, to freeway standards, between Barberton and White River. The planning for the proposed P166 Road was done up to preliminary design stage in the 1980’s, and sections of the route declared in the Provincial Gazette as P166-1 and P166-2. In addition, a short section of this route was recently constructed by the Mpumalanga Roads Department to link up with the new east-west N4 Northern Bypass (also known as the Nelspruit Ring Road) and provide convenient access to the Mbombela soccer stadium.

The P166 Road is intended as a major high mobility route to the west of and parallel to the current R40, originating north of White River (from the R40 towards Hazyview) and terminating in the south in the vicinity of Maggiesdal on the R40 towards Barberton. In essence it will provide a high-speed bypass link along the north-south axis of Mbombela, similar to the N4 Northern Bypass on the east-west access. As the P166 Road will be constructed to freeway standard no direct access will be possible from this road to the development. Regionally it forms a vital localised link in Mbombela to promote high mobility along the very important R40 regional route.

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1.3 PURPOSE & SCOPE OF THIS REPORT

The purpose of this report is to provide traffic related inputs into the Economic & Transport Study being compiled by Demacon, specifically relating to the long-term Transportation Planning aspects considering the future impact of the P166 Road on local- and regional traffic not only in the Mbombela Local Municipality, but also in the areas to the north and south serviced by the R40. The scope of the study and this report can be summarised as follow:

 Functional road network and route functionality, both to the north and south of Nelspruit as defined in the Mbombela Roads Master Plan.  R40 capacity and traffic growth assessment – based on historical data and studies, historic traffic counts, and land use trends, a short overview is compiled highlighting the available capacity of the R40, capacity constraints, and its prospects in terms of the planned developments in especially the Riverside area.  Long term desire lines assessment – focusing on both the R40 and R538 corridors, with the aid of the Mbombela Macro Models as well as strategic Origin-Destination Surveys, long term traffic patterns and desire lines are assessed and information provided on estimated diversion of current traffic to the future P166.  In support of the above Origin-Destination Surveys were conducted at 8 strategic positions over a period of 3 weeks for the AM (6:00 – 9:00) and PM (15:00 – 18:00) peak periods. In addition, travel time surveys were conducted on the R40 over a week period during the peak periods, providing at least 16 samples per direction during each peak period.

2. FUNCTIONAL ROAD NETWORK & ROUTE FUNCTIONALITY

2.1 ROAD CLASSIFICATION

The classification of a road is predominantly determined by the function of that road, but other factors may also influence the classification to a lesser degree. The following road attributes are considered in the classification of a road:

 Function of road – mobility or access to properties;  Through traffic component;  Travel distance;  Travel speed;  Access to property;

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 Parking;  Access spacing;  Percentage of total travel distance on specific portion of road; and  AADT (Annual Average Daily Traffic).

Notwithstanding the above, roads basically fulfil one of two primary roles in terms of the urban environment. Either a road fulfils a mobility function (i.e. travelling longer distance, connecting major centres, district distribution, etc.), or it functions mainly as a so-called CBD road with access the main consideration. Mobility roads typically are Class 3 or higher order roads whilst CBD roads mainly occupy Class 4 or 5. The South African road hierarchy consists of five classes of roads (Department of National Housing, 2005; Committee of Transportation Officials, 2011):

Class 1: National / Regional distributors

These are predominantly rural roads with its main function being mobility and to facilitate regional distribution of traffic. They are usually National or Provincial Roads and include freeways.

Class 2: Primary Distributors (Major Arterial)

These roads form the primary network for the urban areas as a whole. These roads usually provide a link between a number of residential areas and the C.B.D and / or industrial areas. The main function is again mobility with no direct access to individual properties permitted.

Class 3: District Distributors (Minor Arterial)

These roads form a link between the Primary Distributors and the roads within residential areas (Residential collector roads). The main function is again mobility with no direct access to individual properties permitted.

Class 4: Local Distributors.

Local Distributors are residential through-roads which distribute traffic within communities and link District Distributors. They have a mixed function of mobility and accessibility.

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Class 5: Access Roads

These roads give people direct access to property and households. Motor vehicle accesses are not their only function as they are also utilized for activities such as walking, jogging and playing. The main function is accessibility.

Provided under ANNEXURE A is a map depicting the functional road classification of the Mbombela Local Municipality road network. From the map the following can be deduced:

2.2 ROAD FUNCTIONALITY

Considering the roads classification presented under ANNEXURE A it is very clear that the P166 Road will not be a road that only delivers increased mobility to local traffic users. Instead its primary function will be to improve the long distance mobility of the R40 in terms of the regional context along a north-south axis. Its connection with the N4 through a major systems interchange will further enhance its mobility function and allow it to tap into and support the excellent mobility afforded by the National N4 Route on a National scale.

Although the R538 (connecting the R40 with the N4 along a south-east slant to the east of Nelspruit) also provides a fair degree of regional connectivity due to its link with the N4, it cannot continue south unhindered due to the topographical barrier presented by the Crocodile River Gorge south and east of Kanyamazane. An important further function of the R538 that precludes it from fulfilling the same regional function as the R40 is the fact that it increasingly provides accessibility to the fast developing Karino node at it southern end. The goal of the P166 Road is to free up the R40 to fulfil a similar local accessibility function in future thereby releasing it from the precarious shared regional mobility/local accessibility function balancing act it is currently performing.

In terms of the interactions between the R40, R538 and the P166 at its northern end (at Caster Bridge) it is important to implement an alignment alternative that allows easy access to the P166 from both the R40 and R538. From the recent traffic counts and OD-surveys (see

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later in this report) it was noted that in addition to the R40 long distance regional traffic observed at this location, there was also a major local medium distance traffic component noted, i.e. from northern Nsikazi to Nelspruit. The original historical alignment alternative proposed where the P166 terminates at Caster Bridge to allow linkage with the R40 as well as the R538 addresses this need. The subsequent alternative proposals put forward to bypass White River to the north make the P166 less accessible for the major traffic flows from northern Nsikazi and is therefore not preferable. This point will discussed in more detail under Section 4.5 later in the report.

3. R40 CAPACITY & TRAFFIC GROWTH ASSESSMENT

3.1 REGIONAL TRAFFIC FLOWS

A review of historic traffic counts (intermittent counts from 1997 to 2012) and associated growth trends observed at various semi-permanent (repositioned occasionally) counting stations along the R40 indicates an average annual traffic growth rate in the region of 4%, which is considered just above average. The recent increase in heavy vehicle traffic evident along the R40 due to increased mining activities is manifested in extremely high growth rates in heavy vehicle traffic in excess of 25% per annum at certain locations.

The Average Daily Traffic (ADT) along the R40 peaks between White River and Nelspruit at 13870 vehicles per direction per day (veh/dir/day) with the nearest (in terms of volumes) other count being recorded as 3467 veh/dir/day in the Bushbuckridge area. This clearly proves the fact that in terms of regional traffic flow the R40 is exposed to a significant localised increase in traffic between White River and Nelspruit. The traffic count data, growth trends and area populations are indicated on an area map included under ANNEXURE B.

3.2 LOCALISED TRAFFIC FLOWS

The peak traffic flows referred to in the previous section was measured at the permanent counting station located at Rockys Drift and therefore does not represent the highest observed traffic flows, which is well known to be in the Riverside area. Recent traffic counts (August 2013) conducted for the Traffic Impact Study of the proposed Mpumalanga International Fresh Produce Market indicate the highest peak hour flows in the vicinity of the Nels River Bridge to be in the region of 2700veh/hr in the southbound direction during morning peak hour. Considering the observed time series conversion factors applicable at the Rockys Drift counting station, this implies Average Daily Traffic of 22113 vehicles per direction per day (veh/dir/day).

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In terms of the R40’s capacity availability and peak hour volumes, the following table clearly indicates a road under severe pressure approaching capacity, even considering the temporary relief provided by its recent upgrade to 3 lanes per direction in the Riverside area. Considering numerous Traffic Impact Studies conducted for developments along the R40, observations made by Endecon Ubuntu regarding traffic growth along this corridor indicate annual growth rates of 5% per annum is not uncommon, thereby implying capacity being reached along the 6 lane section (3 lanes per direction) in 3 years.

Notwithstanding the above, the current plans for the Mpumalanga University imply the addition of major additional traffic flows to the R40. According to the draft Traffic Engineering Report compiled by SMEC in August 2013, upon completion its anticipated trip generation is in excess of 4000veh/hr with approximately two thirds of that total using the R40 (at least 1 additional lane of traffic required to be accommodated in both directions). Considering current traffic volumes along the R40 already approaching capacity, it is very clear that the P166 is needed to divert regional (or through traffic) away from the R40 to release capacity so that the R40 can accommodate the local traffic generated by the planned developments in the R40 corridor.

We are therefore moving towards a situation where the R40 will definitely require upgrading to 6 lanes (along its entire length) in future to accommodate local development traffic and the P166 must then provide the means to accommodate through- or regional traffic. Upgrading the R40 to 8 lanes becomes impractical as it makes the execution of right-turning manoeuvres at its intersections challenging (you have to cross 4 lanes of oncoming traffic when turning right). Upgrading to 8 lanes will only be feasible if the accessibility function (which is a major feature currently) is decreased and this will reduce accessibility to affected developments and thereby reduce the economic development potential of the R40 corridor.

TABLE 1: R40 CRITICAL PEAK HOUR VOLUMES & CAPACITY

Location & Lanes per Assumed Lane Total Capacity Counted Peak Volume/Capacity Critical Peak Direction Capacity (veh/hr) (veh/hr) Hour Volume Ratio (%) Rockys Drift 2 1010 2020 2512 124% (PM Peak Hour) Nels River 3 1010 3030 2715 90% (AM Peak Hour)

3.3 TRAFFIC GROWTH FORECASTS FOR THE R40 & P166: MODELLING BACKGROUND

The view that the R40 in the Nelspruit area (both to the north and the south of the city) will reach capacity and require the provision of the P166 Road to remove through-traffic and free up capacity for local development bound traffic, is fully elaborated on and supported in the

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Traffic Impact Studies for the Riverside Extension 24-, Riverside Extension 22 & 23-, Sonheuwel Business Area-, and Mpumalanga International Fresh Produce Market developments. However, the most comprehensive proof is provided in terms of the updated transportation modelling and future traffic growth projections done as part of the updated Mbombela Roads Master Plan (2013 to date) and the Karino Roads Master Plan (2013 to date), as will be elaborated on further in this section.

The preceding macro models developed for Mbombela included the Nsikazi Land Use & Transportation Study (LUTS) model and the Mbombela Macro Transport Simulation (MTSM) model. The LUTS model had a lower resolution and focused more on the Nsikazi area whilst the MTSM model with its higher resolution covered the R40 corridor between Nelspruit & White River with special focus on the Riverside area. Upon request of Mbombela Local Municipality the said models were integrated into a simplified model as part of the Update Mbombela Roads Master Plan. This model is referred to as the Mbombela Macro Model (MMM). However, significant recent progress regarding major planned projects in the area (Mataffin, Mpumalanga International Fresh Produce Market, Mpumalanga University, etc.) presented the opportunity for a further upgrade of the Mbombela Macro Model to further improve its accuracy and relevancy.

Before future projections were done, the newly developed calibrated 2013 Mbombela Macro Model was compared with the various previous models to get an indication of prevalent growth rates in vehicular traffic in Mbombela. The following was observed:

 The 2008 MTSM model had 26 585 vehicular trips and was projected to 38 829 in terms of the 2013 MTSM model, representing an annual growth rate of 8%.  The less conservative/detailed 2005 LUTS model had 20 584 vehicular trips and was projected to 26 908 in terms of the 2013 MTSM model, representing an annual growth rate of 6%.  The calibrated 2013 Mbombela Macro Model has 37 403 vehicular trips. Compared to the calibrated 2008 MTSM model with 26 585 vehicular trips, it represents an annual growth rate of between 7 and 8% per year.

Therefore for future projections a growth rate of 7% per year was consequently adapted as a minimum base growth rate whilst full development of planned developments was used to obtain the ultimate year model projections. In terms of the future year projected models, after various different types of growth methods, the following were found to deliver the most realistic and believable results:

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 5 year projection – apply uniform 7%/year growth across all zones.  Ultimate year projection – apply proportionate growth to origin-destination pairs as a function of total projected population growth (origins) and projected GLA growth (destinations).  In terms of the Karino Roads Master Plan the following refinements were additionally applied: o Phase 1 (or circa 2015 projection) – apply uniform 7%/year growth across all zones and further factor up Karino zones to match trip generation as reported in the relevant report. o Phase 2 (or circa 2020 projection) – the same as Phase 1 projection but additionally adjust trip generation upwards for Mpumalanga University and Mpumalanga International Fresh Produce Market as per relevant TIS’s. o Phase 3 (or circa 2030 projection) – apply proportionate growth to origin- destination pairs as a function of total projected population growth (origins) and projected GLA growth (destinations) and further factor up Karino zones to match trip generation as reported in the relevant report.

Considered in the ultimate year projection is the complete list of TIS’s, TEAS applications (not covered by a TIS) and any other relevant applications (such as DFA applications) as provided by Mbombela Local Municipality. A review of the number of trips from the ultimate year model indicates a total of 69 075 vehicular trips, roughly translating to a 10 year horizon considering a growth rate of 7% per year. Therefore, considering the request from Demacon to provide forecasts in terms of their forecast horizons (2024 and 2034), a revised set of models were run for the purposes of this study as follow:

 2014 Diversion Test Model – using the calibrated 2013/14 Mbombela Macro Model, a test run was done whereby the P166 Road is switched on to test diversion to it under current circumstances.  2024 Medium Term Horizon Year Model – using the Karino ultimate year projection (or roughly 10 year’s growth considering currently observed trends).  2034 Long Term Horizon Year Model – using the abovementioned model and uniformly growing its matrices by a reduced generalised rate of 3.5% per year, thereby simulating a levelling off in the growth rate after an initial high growth period.

Abovementioned approach aims to provide a more accurate projection in terms of the medium term (or 2024) scenario with fairly accurate forecasts in terms of planned developments in the area, thereby assuring the need of the proposed P166 Road in terms of transportation demand. The less accurate long term (or 2034) scenario has a more

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generalised approach considering only generalised land use planning currently available for the area over the longer term.

3.3 TRAFFIC GROWTH FORECASTS FOR THE R40 & P166: MODELLING RESULTS

Included under ANNEXURE C are modelling outputs as per the modelled scenarios. The following table summarises the forecasted traffic volumes as per the modelling outputs:

TABLE 2: R40 & P166 MODELLING OUTPUTS SUMMARY

Location R40 Directional AM R40 Directional P166 Directional AM P166 Directional Peak Hour Volume Estimated ADT Peak Hour Volume Estimated ADT (veh/hr) Volume (veh/day) (veh/hr) Volume (veh/day) 2013/14 AM Peak Hour Calibrated Base Model White River 1199 9820 N/A N/A Rockys Drift 1845 15111 N/A N/A Riverside 2235 18305 N/A N/A Maggiesdal 837 6855 N/A N/A 2013/14 AM Peak Hour Calibrated Base Model – P166 Diversion Test White River 146 1196 522 4275 Rockys Drift 519 4251 1443 11818 Riverside 808 6618 1608 13170 Maggiesdal 292 2392 369 3022 2024 AM Peak Hour Medium Term Scenario Model White River 2169 17764 1640 13432 Rockys Drift 2773 22711 2478 20295 Riverside 2080 17035 2149 17601 Maggiesdal 1354 11089 521 4267 2034 AM Peak Hour Long Term Scenario Model White River 2969 24317 2115 17322 Rockys Drift 3345 27396 2874 23317 Riverside 3035 24857 2703 22138 Maggiesdal 1848 15135 759 6216

The modelling results conclusively confirm that the improved mobility with reduced delay (assuming a speed limit of 120 km/h on the P166 Road) will even under current circumstances provide a very attractive alternative route with the majority of commuter traffic traveling along the R40 diverting to the P166 Road should it know be constructed in the near future. The future forecasts indicated a healthy growth in traffic volumes on the P166 Road but the R40 will still remain under pressure due to its status as development corridor with demand for accessibility along it only increasing in future. Even with the P166 Road in place, the traffic generated by the developments along the R40 will ensure that its volumes remain significant, thereby justifying the call for it to be upgraded to 3 lanes per direction along its entire length in the not too distant future regardless of whether the P166 Road is constructed or not.

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4. DESIRE LINES ASSESSMENT

4.1 BACKGROUND

A field exercise was engaged in order to determine ore carrier truck movements and probable diversions from the R40 to the future P166, should it be provided as an alternative to the R40. Abovementioned required information on typical travellers’ choices regarding preferred routes to use along the R40 and R538 and comprehensive Origin-Destination surveys were conducted at strategic decision-making points in order to determine typical route preferences.

The surveys were conducted by means of roadside interviews by trained interviewers; interviewers were limited to 3 individuals to prevent safety concerns and confusion at the interview site and a 4th person conducted link counts away from the interview site in order to determine sample size. The surveys were conducted on typical weekdays (Tuesday to Thursday) over a 3 week period at 6 locations. The surveys were designed to be quick and simple without unnecessary delay for motorists being interviewed.

Interviewers wore safety vests and a large yellow safety triangle was placed roadside to warn motorists. Interviewers had to submit to the authority of Traffic Officers, especially with regards to safety. Mpumalanga Traffic Law Enforcement was requested to assist in stopping motorists for interviews in a safe manner. As highlighted on the key plan contained under ANNEXURE D, the surveys were conducted at the following locations on the following dates (all incoming directions into Mbombela, survey times from 6:00 to 9:00 in the morning and 15:00 to 18:00 in the afternoon):

 Tuesday 18 March 2014: In White River on the R40 just south of the new Casterbridge traffic circle on the way from Hazyview to White River.  Wednesday 19 March 2014: In Rockys Drift on the R40 just south of the KMIA/Plaston Rd turn-off (opposite Manna Chruch) on the way from White River to Nelspruit.  Thursday 20 March 2014: In Nelspruit on the R40 just south of the traffic light at TUT, on the way from Barberton to Nelspruit.  Tuesday 25 March 2014: In White River/Jatinga on the D2690 (or R538) just south of its T-junction with the R569 (close to Winkler Hotel) on the way from Numbi to Plaston & KMIA.  Wednesday 26 March 2014: In Karino on the R538 just north of the Crocodile River Bridge (north of the N4 T-junction), on the way from KMIA to the N4.

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 Thursday 27 March 2014: In Kanyamazane on the D2296 (Kanyamazane Rd) just north of the north of the N4 T-junction, on the way from Kanyamazane to the N4 and Malelane.  Tuesday 1 April 2014: At Mataffin on the N4 just west of the N4 Northern Bypass split on the way from Pretoria to Nelspruit.  Thursday 3 April 2014: At Valencia on the N4 just east of the N4 Northern Bypass split on the way from Komatipoort to Nelspruit.

All surveys went as planned with the exception of the PM survey at Valencia on the N4 just east of the N4 Northern Bypass split on the way from Komatipoort to Nelspruit, when the survey was aborted based on safety concerns raised by Traffic Officers. In general the higher speeds and significant volumes on the N4 and R40 necessitated a more measured approach to ensure safety with resultant reductions in sample sizes. The survey forms can be viewed under ANNEXURE E whilst ANNEXURE F contains the traffic counts sheets.

4.2 OD-SURVEY RESULTS OVERVIEW

The analysis of the Origin-Destination surveys aimed to establish the probable diversion of traffic under current circumstances should the P166 Road become immediately available as an alternative to the R40. The findings of the surveys are empirically deduced with the aid of statistical analysis and therefore serves as an assessment independent of the modelling results, i.e. it serves as a cross-check whether diversion will take place based on respondent feedback and route choice assumptions. A set of base assumptions as indicated below were used in order to conduct the analysis:

 Only trips with a daily frequency were considered a reliable basis for volume determination.  In combination with the above, the probability or most likely sub-set of users that will qualify to divert to the P166 Road was determined by further assuming that only regional traffic (i.e. with an origin or destination outside Mbombela) will make use of the P166 Road.  It was assumed that regional traffic will be more likely to make use of the P166, i.e. if you are coming from far, you will want to travel along the P166 to save time given that your trip is long. The reverse also holds that if you are outwardly bound to a far off destination you are more likely to use the P166 to cut down on your overall travel time.  It was assumed that bypass traffic would make use of the P166, i.e. depending where the survey was done, users that explicitly stated that their origin or destination is such they will definitely do a bypass trip should the P166 be available – an example is a

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respondent interviewed at Caster Bridge that states he is travelling from Bushbuckridge to Barberton and will therefore definitely use the P166.  To ensure a conservative approach in determining likely diversions, depending on the direction of the survey, respondents or traffic with a local origin (inbound) or local destination (outbound) will rather make use of the R40 and not the P166 Road.  In the morning inbound (towards Nelspruit or south and/or eastward) traffic was surveyed and in the afternoon outbound (away from Nelspruit or north and/or westward) traffic was surveyed as this constitutes the predominant direction of traffic flows during the relevant peak hours.

The summarised tables of each survey location are contained under ANNEXURE G. A review of the results indicates the following:

 R40 surveys: o The highest diversion rates (expressed as percentage of total flow) were observed on the northern- or southern edges of the P166 extent with the lowest anticipated diversion being 12% (Rockys Drift inbound) and the highest anticipated diversion being 73% (White River inbound). o Depending on the relevant section from Riverside or Mataffin northward, directional total diversion volumes of anything between 800 veh/hr to more than 1200 veh/hr were found to possibly divert should the P166 become available. o The southern sections were less prolific with directional total diversion volumes of more in the order of 500veh/hr being evident.  R538 surveys: o The very high presence of local traffic and the general lack of regional traffic on the R538 implicitly meant much lower diversion rates were possible. o The highest diversion rates (expressed as percentage of total flow) were observed on the northern edge of the R538 with the lowest anticipated diversion being 0% (both southern survey locations) and the highest anticipated diversion being 14% (White River outbound). o Depending of the relevant section, the maximum directional total diversion volumes of less than 50veh/hr were found to possibly divert to the P166.  N4 surveys: o The highest diversion rates (expressed as percentage of total flow) were observed on the western edge of the N4 Northern Bypass with the lowest anticipated diversion being 5% (Valencia inbound) and the highest anticipated diversion being 48% (Mataffin/Halls Gateway inbound).

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o Once again due to the significant share of local commuter traffic from Nsikazi on the eastern edge of the N4 Northern Bypass at Valencia, the potential for diversion to the P166 once again diminishes greatly. o Total diversion volumes of anything between 40veh/hr (east) to more than 300 veh/hr (west) were found to possibly divert should the P166 become available.

4.3 TRAVEL TIME RESULTS OVERVIEW

A total of 32 travel time surveys were conducted between the Madiba Dr (R40)/Andrew St intersection in Nelspruit and the Madiba Dr (R40)/Sabie Rd intersection in White River. An average travel time of 18 minutes per direction was observed. Considering the modelling results of the P166 diversion test run it is anticipated that travelling roughly the same distance with the P166 will take approximately 12 minutes per direction, representing a 33% saving in travel time during the relevant peak hours.

4.4 HEAVY VEHICLE TRAFFIC FLOWS

A review of the relevant traffic counts indicate that the ore carrier trucks traffic constitutes anything between 20 and 50 trucks per direction per hour, depending on the time of day and localised fluctuations. Total traffic flow for the affected movements varies from 100 to more than 300 vehicles per hour. The highest rate of truck flows is generally observed in the early morning hours just after dawn when truck drivers usually get going again after a night’s rest at given locations en-route. Considering the flow rates and assuming 12 hours of daylight, this implies total daily truck volumes in the range of between 240 and 600 trucks per direction per day with the majority (at least 80%) currently making use of the R40 rather than the old R538 via Numbi.

To put abovementioned figures into perspective it is useful to compare it to typical truck flows observed on the R40 in the Rockys Drift area. Although the truck flows on the R538 are proportionately high in terms of the total vehicle flows (up to 30% has been observed), it pales in comparison to the flows measured on the R40 where anything from 75 to more than a 100 trucks per direction per hour are observed, translating to daily flows approaching 1000 trucks per direction per day. Therefore, although the truck flows on the R538 cannot be ignored, it isn’t as significant as the truck flows observed on the R40 in its corridor parallel to the P166.

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4.5 WHITE RIVER ALTERNATIVE ALIGNMENT

Provided under ANNEXURE H are layouts and maps in support of the discussions under this section. The initial P166 route alignment through White River was designed (at the time of the basic planning) to terminate as a continuous route into the R538 (P17-6 / Numbi Road) towards the east. This was to provide a direct link to the further east lying rural settlements of the former Kangwane currently known as the Masoyi / Numbi area. During the current review the P166 was amended to tie into the existing R40 at Casterbridge to provide a more functional continuity of the R40 as the primary mobility corridor. The convenient direct connection and continuity with the R538 was nevertheless retained.

Since then an alternative alignment for the P166 to the north of White River has been put forward to address potential environmental concerns raised in terms of the originally proclaimed alignment. The alternative route alignment will tie into the existing R40 approximately 1.8km north of Casterbridge thereby losing the direct connection and continuity with the important desire line eastwards (via the R538) and only maintaining a northern desire line to Hazyview (via the R40). Although potentially beneficial in terms of environmental considerations, from a traffic flow point of view this alternative proposal significantly impacts on the effectiveness of the P166 and it is strongly recommended that the original alignment (as already proclaimed) be maintained, based on the following:

 Population served: The R538 from the Numbi / Masoyi area serves a local population in excess of 125 000 people along its length compared to a comparative local population of less than 25 000 people being served by the R40 from Hazyview. Therefore, it is imperative that priority be given to maintaining the originally planned convenient direct connection and continuity between the P166 and the R538 of the original alignment (as opposed to the northern alternative that disrupts continuity with the R538 but only maintains continuity along the R40 towards Hazyview) in order to most effectively serve the greater local population that potentially will derive benefit from the P166.  Travel distance- & travel times: Considering the larger population being served to the east via the R538, the proposed alternative alignment to the north of White River will result in the majority of potential P166 road users being penalized by an additional 1.8km in travel distance to access the P166. Not only will they experience resultant increased travel times but they will have to turn northwards (a right-turn manoeuvre onto the R40) and away from Nelspruit to access the P166. The shortest and most direct route to Nelspruit for traffic from the R538 will therefore still be via the White River CBD (as is currently the case) and more road users from the R538 will be

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inclined to forego the option of using the P166 thereby not only greatly diminishing its effectiveness but also providing little potential relief from traffic congestion to the White River CBD.  Public transport routes: Considering the larger population being served to the east via the R538, the majority of affected public transport routes (>75% of affected routes) will access the P166 from the east via the R538 (as opposed to via the R40), therefore further highlighting the need to maintain the original alignment in order to benefit the majority of public transport users affected.  R40 traffic is not negatively affected: The originally proposed (and already proclaimed) route alignment through White River will have no negative impact on R40 traffic as the continuity along the R40 with free-flow access to the P166 is retained with unchanged travel distances. Transversely though the proposed alternative alignment to the north of White River will negatively impact R538 traffic (the majority of traffic in this case, 60% of traffic counted here recently) due to the reasons set out above considering continuation with the R538 is disrupted. The net result of the alternative alignment to the north of White River is therefore a negative impact if all traffic affected is considered.

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5. SUMMARY & CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the findings of this study can be summarised as follow:

 The R40 is primarily a Class 2 road but it is downgraded to a Class 3 road where it traverses urbanised areas with an associated increased number of intersections and improved accessibility but reduced mobility.  The P166 Road is primarily a Class 1 road considering it is intended as a major high mobility route constructed to freeway standards with no direct accesses permitted.  The R538 is primarily a Class 2 road.  The primary function of the P166 will be to improve the long distance mobility of the R40 in terms of the regional context along a north-south axis and its connection with the N4 through a major systems interchange will further enhance its mobility function and allow it to tap into and support the excellent mobility afforded by the National N4 Route on a National scale.  Although the R538 (connecting the R40 with the N4 along a south-east slant to the east of Nelspruit) also provides a fair degree of regional connectivity due to its link with the N4, it cannot continue south unhindered due to the topographical barrier presented by the Crocodile River Gorge and an important further function of the R538 that precludes it from fulfilling the same regional function as the R40 is the fact that it increasingly provides accessibility to the fast developing Karino node at it southern end.  In terms of the interactions between the R40, R538 and the P166 at its northern end (at Caster Bridge) it is important to implement the original historical alignment alternative proposed where the P166 terminates at Caster Bridge to allow linkage with the R40 as well as the R538 as the recent traffic counts and OD-surveys indicated that in addition to the R40 long distance regional traffic observed at this location, there was also a major local medium distance traffic component noted, i.e. from northern Nsikazi to Nelspruit.  A review of historic traffic counts along the R40 indicates an average annual traffic growth rate in the region of 4%, whilst the recent increase in heavy vehicle traffic evident along the R40 due to increased mining activities is manifested in extremely high growth rates in heavy vehicle traffic in excess of 25% per annum at certain locations.  The Average Daily Traffic (ADT) along the R40 peaks between White River and Nelspruit at 13870 vehicles per direction per day (veh/dir/day) with the nearest (in terms of volumes) other count being recorded as 3467 veh/dir/day in the Bushbuckridge area.  Recent traffic counts (August 2013) indicate the highest peak hour flows in the vicinity of the Nels River Bridge to be in the region of 2700veh/hr which implies Average Daily Traffic of 22113 vehicles per direction per day (veh/dir/day).

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 In terms of the R40’s capacity availability and peak hour volumes, Table 1 clearly indicates a road under severe pressure approaching capacity, even considering the temporary relief provided by its recent upgrade to 3 lanes per direction in the Riverside area.  Notwithstanding the above, the current plans for the Mpumalanga University imply the addition of major additional traffic flows to the R40 and upon completion its anticipated trip generation is in excess of 4000veh/hr with approximately two thirds of that total using the R40 (at least 1 additional lane of traffic required to be accommodated in both directions).  We are therefore moving towards a situation where the R40 will definitely require upgrading to 6 lanes (along its entire length) in future to accommodate local development traffic and the P166 must then provide the means to accommodate through- or regional traffic – upgrading the R40 to 8 lanes is deemed impractical as it makes the execution of right-turning manoeuvres at its intersections challenging (you have to cross 4 lanes of oncoming traffic when turning right).  Included under ANNEXURE C are modelling outputs as per the modelled scenarios whilst Table 2 summarises the forecasted traffic volumes as per the modelling outputs with a maximum ADT of more than 23000 veh/dir/day being forecasted for the 2024 scenario.  Even with the P166 Road in place, the traffic generated by the developments along the R40 will ensure that its volumes remain significant, thereby justifying the call for it to be upgraded to 3 lanes per direction along its entire length in the not too distant future regardless of whether the P166 Road is constructed or not.  The summarised tables of each Origin-Destination survey location are contained under ANNEXURE G and a review of the results indicates the following:  R40 surveys: o The highest diversion rates (expressed as percentage of total flow) were observed on the northern- or southern edges of the P166 extent with the lowest anticipated diversion being 12% (Rockys Drift inbound) and the highest anticipated diversion being 73% (White River inbound). o Depending of the relevant section from Riverside or Mataffin northward, directional total diversion volumes of anything between 800 veh/hr to more than 1200 veh/hr were found to possibly divert should the P166 become available. o The southern sections were less prolific with directional total diversion volumes of more in the order of 500veh/hr being evident.  R538 surveys: o The very high presence of local traffic and the general lack of regional traffic on the R538 implicitly meant much lower diversion rates were possible. o The highest diversion rates (expressed as percentage of total flow) were observed on the northern edge of the R538 with the lowest anticipated diversion being 0%

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(both southern survey locations) and the highest anticipated diversion being 14% (White River outbound). o Depending of the relevant section, the maximum directional total diversion volumes of less than 50veh/hr were found to possibly divert to the P166.  N4 surveys: o The highest diversion rates (expressed as percentage of total flow) were observed on the western edge of the N4 Northern Bypass with the lowest anticipated diversion being 5% (Valencia inbound) and the highest anticipated diversion being 48% (Mataffin/Halls Gateway inbound). o Once again due to the significant share of local commuter traffic from Nsikazi on the eastern edge of the N4 Northern Bypass at Valencia, the potential for diversion to the P166 once again diminishes greatly. o Total diversion volumes of anything between 40veh/hr (east) to more than 300 veh/hr (west) were found to possibly divert should the P166 become available.  Considering current average travel times of 18 minutes, it is anticipated that travelling between the Madiba Dr (R40)/Andrew St intersection in Nelspruit and the Madiba Dr (R40)/Sabie Rd intersection in White River with the P166 will take approximately 12 minutes per direction, representing a 33% saving in travel time during the relevant peak hours.  A review of the relevant traffic counts indicate that the ore carrier trucks traffic constitutes anything between 20 and 50 trucks per direction per hour, implying total daily truck volumes in the range of between 240 and 600 trucks per direction per day with the majority (at least 80%) currently making use of the R40 rather than the old R538 via Numbi.  Although the truck flows on the R538 are proportionately high in terms of the total vehicle flows (up to 30% has been observed), it pales in comparison to the flows measured on the R40 where anything from 75 to more than a 100 trucks per direction per hour are observed, translating to daily flows approaching 1000 trucks per direction per day.  Although potentially beneficial in terms of environmental considerations, from a traffic flow point of view the proposed alternative alignment to the north of White River significantly impacts on the effectiveness of the P166 and it is strongly recommended that the original alignment (as already proclaimed) be maintained, based on the following: o Population served: The R538 from the Numbi / Masoyi area serves a local population in excess of 125 000 people along its length compared to a comparative local population of less than 25 000 people being served by the R40 from Hazyview and therefore it is imperative that priority be given to maintaining continuity between the P166 and the R538 in order to most effectively serve the greater local population that potentially will derive benefit from the P166.

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o Travel distance- & travel times: The proposed alternative alignment to the north of White River will result in the majority of potential P166 road users being penalized by an additional 1.8km in travel distance (with associated increased travel times) to access the P166 and the shortest and most direct route to Nelspruit for traffic from the R538 will therefore still be via the White River CBD (as is currently the case) and more road users will be inclined to forego the option of using the P166 thereby not only greatly diminishing its effectiveness but also providing little potential relief from traffic congestion to the White River CBD. o Public transport routes: Considering the larger population being served to the east via the R538, the majority of affected public transport routes (>75% of affected routes) will access the P166 from the east via the R538 (as opposed to via the R40), therefore further highlighting the need to maintain the original alignment in order to benefit the majority of public transport users affected. o R40 traffic is not negatively affected: The originally proposed (and already proclaimed) route alignment through White River will have no negative impact on R40 traffic as the continuity along the R40 with free-flow access to the P166 is retained with unchanged travel distances. Transversely though the proposed alternative alignment to the north of White River will negatively impact R538 traffic (the majority of traffic in this case, 60% of traffic counted here recently) due to the continuation with the R538 being disrupted and the net result is therefore a negative impact if all traffic affected is considered.

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REFERENCES

1. Transportation Research Board, Highway Capacity Manual, Washington D.C.

2. Endecon Ubuntu (Pty) Ltd Engineering Consultants, 2010 in association with Laduma TAPP, Nsikazi Land Use & Transportation Study, Nelspruit.

3. Schreuder, HDJ, December 2010, Riverside Park Ext 24 Traffic Impact Study, Endecon Ubuntu.

4. Schreuder, HDJ, January 2011, Riverside Park Ext 22,23 Traffic Impact Study, Endecon Ubuntu.

5. Endecon Ubuntu (Pty) Ltd Engineering Consultants, 2011, Mbombela Macro Simulation Model, Nelspruit.

6. Umsebe Development Planners 2012, 2011 Mbombela Spatial Development Framework, Nelspruit.

7. Swart, HW, Schreuder, HDJ, Fitzgerald, A, McKenzie, L, May 2013, 2013 Updated Roads Master Plan, Endecon Ubuntu.

8. Endecon Ubuntu (Pty) Ltd Engineering Consultants 2013, Evaluation Report for Future Route P166 (R40-3): Review of the Preliminary Design of P166-1/2 at Mbombela / Nelspruit, March 2013.

9. Schreuder, HDJ, October 2013, Sonheuwel Commercial Node Traffic Impact Study, Endecon Ubuntu.

10. Schreuder, HDJ, December 2013, Karino Roads Master Plan, Endecon Ubuntu.

11. Schreuder, HDJ, April 2014, Mpumalanga International fresh Produce Market: Phase 1 & 2 Traffic Impact Study, Endecon Ubuntu.

12. Van der Merwe, G, Marais, WJ, August 2013, Mpumalanga University Traffic Engineering Report, SMEC.

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ANNEXURE A: MBOMBELA ROAD NETWORK CLASSIFICATION