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Final Report: Transportation Study

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Final Report: Transportation Study CIVIL ENGINEERING CONTRACT NO. R.040-030-2011/1D-ER FINAL REPORT: TRANSPORTATION STUDY FOR THE FUTURE ROUTE P166 (R40-3) APRIL 2015 PREPARED FOR: THE SOUTH AFRICAN NATIONAL ROADS AGENCY SOC LIMITED (SANRAL) PRIVATE BAG X17 LYNNWOOD RIDGE 0040 PREPARED BY: ENDECON UBUNTU ENGINEERING CONSULTANTS P. O. BOX 6215 NELSPRUIT 1200 Draft Report: Transportation Study for the Future Route P166 (R40-3) Contract No. R.040-030-2011/1D-ER TITLE OF REPORT: Draft Report: Transportation Study for the Future Route P166 (R40-3) Report File Name: N2317 - 22.04.2015_Rev2 Final Traffic Overview Client: The South African National Roads Agency SOC Limited (SANRAL) Prepared by: H.D.J. Schreuder Signed Reviewed by: H.D.J. Schreuder Signed Approved by: J. L. Venter Signed DESCRIPTION OF REVISIONS REVISION DATE Draft A 18 April 2014 Final B 27 May 2014 Revised Final C 21 April 2015 Revised Final D 22 April 2015 I Draft Report: Transportation Study for the Future Route P166 (R40-3) Contract No. R.040-030-2011/1D-ER EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION This report was developed in support of the Economic & Transport Study being compiled by Demacon for the future P166 Road and constitutes a brief summary of the Transportation Study conducted by Endecon Ubuntu. The study draws on a plethora of historical Transportation Planning work done by Endecon Ubuntu as part of their appointment from Mbombela Local Municipality to review and update the Mbombela Roads Master Plan. SUMMARY & CONCLUSION In conclusion, the findings of this study can be summarised as follow: The R40 is primarily a Class 2 road but it is downgraded to a Class 3 road where it traverses urbanised areas with an associated increased number of intersections and improved accessibility but reduced mobility. The P166 Road is primarily a Class 1 road considering it is intended as a major high mobility route constructed to freeway standards with no direct accesses permitted. The R538 is primarily a Class 2 road. The primary function of the P166 will be to improve the long distance mobility of the R40 in terms of the regional context along a north-south axis and its connection with the N4 through a major systems interchange will further enhance its mobility function and allow it to tap into and support the excellent mobility afforded by the National N4 Route on a National scale. Although the R538 (connecting the R40 with the N4 along a south-east slant to the east of Nelspruit) also provides a fair degree of regional connectivity due to its link with the N4, it cannot continue south unhindered due to the topographical barrier presented by the Crocodile River Gorge and an important further function of the R538 that precludes it from fulfilling the same regional function as the R40 is the fact that it increasingly provides accessibility to the fast developing Karino node at it southern end. In terms of the interactions between the R40, R538 and the P166 at its northern end (at Caster Bridge) it is important to implement the original historical alignment alternative proposed where the P166 terminates at Caster Bridge to allow linkage with the R40 as well as the R538 as the recent traffic counts and OD-surveys indicated that in addition to the R40 long distance regional traffic observed at this location, there was also a major local medium distance traffic component noted, i.e. from northern Nsikazi to Nelspruit. II Draft Report: Transportation Study for the Future Route P166 (R40-3) Contract No. R.040-030-2011/1D-ER A review of historic traffic counts along the R40 indicates an average annual traffic growth rate in the region of 4%, whilst the recent increase in heavy vehicle traffic evident along the R40 due to increased mining activities is manifested in extremely high growth rates in heavy vehicle traffic in excess of 25% per annum at certain locations. The Average Daily Traffic (ADT) along the R40 peaks between White River and Nelspruit at 13870 vehicles per direction per day (veh/dir/day) with the nearest (in terms of volumes) other count being recorded as 3467 veh/dir/day in the Bushbuckridge area. Recent traffic counts (August 2013) indicate the highest peak hour flows in the vicinity of the Nels River Bridge to be in the region of 2700veh/hr which implies Average Daily Traffic of 22113 vehicles per direction per day (veh/dir/day). In terms of the R40’s capacity availability and peak hour volumes, Table 1 clearly indicates a road under severe pressure approaching capacity, even considering the temporary relief provided by its recent upgrade to 3 lanes per direction in the Riverside area. Notwithstanding the above, the current plans for the Mpumalanga University imply the addition of major additional traffic flows to the R40 and upon completion its anticipated trip generation is in excess of 4000veh/hr with approximately two thirds of that total using the R40 (at least 1 additional lane of traffic required to be accommodated in both directions). We are therefore moving towards a situation where the R40 will definitely require upgrading to 6 lanes (along its entire length) in future to accommodate local development traffic and the P166 must then provide the means to accommodate through- or regional traffic – upgrading the R40 to 8 lanes is deemed impractical as it makes the execution of right-turning manoeuvres at its intersections challenging (you have to cross 4 lanes of oncoming traffic when turning right). Included under ANNEXURE C are modelling outputs as per the modelled scenarios whilst Table 2 summarises the forecasted traffic volumes as per the modelling outputs with a maximum ADT of more than 23000 veh/dir/day being forecasted for the 2024 scenario. Even with the P166 Road in place, the traffic generated by the developments along the R40 will ensure that its volumes remain significant, thereby justifying the call for it to be upgraded to 3 lanes per direction along its entire length in the not too distant future regardless of whether the P166 Road is constructed or not. The summarised tables of each Origin-Destination survey location are contained under ANNEXURE G and a review of the results indicates the following: R40 surveys: o The highest diversion rates (expressed as percentage of total flow) were observed on the northern- or southern edges of the P166 extent with the lowest anticipated III Draft Report: Transportation Study for the Future Route P166 (R40-3) Contract No. R.040-030-2011/1D-ER diversion being 12% (Rockys Drift inbound) and the highest anticipated diversion being 73% (White River inbound). o Depending of the relevant section from Riverside or Mataffin northward, directional total diversion volumes of anything between 800 veh/hr to more than 1200 veh/hr were found to possibly divert should the P166 become available. o The southern sections were less prolific with directional total diversion volumes of more in the order of 500veh/hr being evident. R538 surveys: o The very high presence of local traffic and the general lack of regional traffic on the R538 implicitly meant much lower diversion rates were possible. o The highest diversion rates (expressed as percentage of total flow) were observed on the northern edge of the R538 with the lowest anticipated diversion being 0% (both southern survey locations) and the highest anticipated diversion being 14% (White River outbound). o Depending of the relevant section, the maximum directional total diversion volumes of less than 50veh/hr were found to possibly divert to the P166. N4 surveys: o The highest diversion rates (expressed as percentage of total flow) were observed on the western edge of the N4 Northern Bypass with the lowest anticipated diversion being 5% (Valencia inbound) and the highest anticipated diversion being 48% (Mataffin/Halls Gateway inbound). o Once again due to the significant share of local commuter traffic from Nsikazi on the eastern edge of the N4 Northern Bypass at Valencia, the potential for diversion to the P166 once again diminishes greatly. o Total diversion volumes of anything between 40veh/hr (east) to more than 300 veh/hr (west) were found to possibly divert should the P166 become available. Considering current average travel times of 18 minutes, it is anticipated that travelling between the Madiba Dr (R40)/Andrew St intersection in Nelspruit and the Madiba Dr (R40)/Sabie Rd intersection in White River with the P166 will take approximately 12 minutes per direction, representing a 33% saving in travel time during the relevant peak hours. A review of the relevant traffic counts indicate that the ore carrier trucks traffic constitutes anything between 20 and 50 trucks per direction per hour, implying total daily truck volumes in the range of between 240 and 600 trucks per direction per day with the majority (at least 80%) currently making use of the R40 rather than the old R538 via Numbi. Although the truck flows on the R538 are proportionately high in terms of the total vehicle flows (up to 30% has been observed), it pales in comparison to the flows measured on the IV Draft Report: Transportation Study for the Future Route P166 (R40-3) Contract No. R.040-030-2011/1D-ER R40 where anything from 75 to more than a 100 trucks per direction per hour are observed, translating to daily flows approaching 1000 trucks per direction per day. Although potentially beneficial in terms of environmental considerations, from a traffic flow point of view the proposed alternative alignment to the north of White River significantly impacts on the effectiveness of the P166 and it is strongly recommended that the original alignment (as already proclaimed) be maintained, based on the following: o Population served: The R538 from the Numbi / Masoyi area serves a local population in excess of 125 000 people along its length compared to a comparative local population of less than 25 000 people being served by the R40 from Hazyview and therefore it is imperative that priority be given to maintaining continuity between the P166 and the R538 in order to most effectively serve the greater local population that potentially will derive benefit from the P166.
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