‘TRANSITIONS AFTER TRANSITIONS’: COLOURED REVOLUTIONS AND ORGANIZED CRIME IN GEORGIA, UKRAINE AND KYRGYZSTAN Alexander Kupatadze A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of PhD at the University of St. Andrews 2010 Full metadata for this item is available in Research@StAndrews:FullText at: https://research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk/ Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10023/1320 This item is protected by original copyright This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License ‘Transitions after Transitions’: Coloured Revolutions and Organized Crime in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan Alexander Kupatadze In fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of International Relations, University of St Andrews St Andrews, UK August 2010 I, Alexander Kupatadze, hereby certify that this thesis, which is approximately 80 thousand words in length, has been written by me, that it is the record of work carried out by me and that it has not been submitted in any previous application for a higher degree. I was admitted as a research student in September 2005 and as a candidate for the degree of PhD in September 2006; the higher study for which this is a record was carried out in the University of St Andrews between 2005 and 2010. Date signature of candidate I hereby certify that the candidate has fulfilled the conditions of the Resolution and Regulations appropriate for the degree of PhD in the University of St Andrews and that the candidate is qualified to submit this thesis in application for that degree. Date signature of supervisor In submitting this thesis to the University of St Andrews we understand that we are giving permission for it to be made available for use in accordance with the regulations of the University Library for the time being in force, subject to any copyright vested in the work not being affected thereby. We also understand that the title and the abstract will be published, and that a copy of the work may be made and supplied to any bona fide library or research worker, that my thesis will be electronically accessible for personal or research use unless exempt by award of an embargo as requested below, and that the library has the right to migrate my thesis into new electronic forms as required to ensure continued access to the thesis. We have obtained any third-party copyright permissions that may be required in order to allow such access and migration, or have requested the appropriate embargo below. The following is an agreed request by candidate and supervisor regarding the electronic publication of this thesis: Access to Printed copy and electronic publication of thesis through the University of St Andrews. date signature of candidate date signature of supervisor ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express the deepest appreciation to my supervisor, Dr. Rick Fawn, for his guidance, thoughtful insight and continuous support and encouragement. Many people on the staff of School of International Relations of St Andrews University assisted and encouraged me in various ways during my course of studies. I wish to thank all of them. A special thanks goes to my mentor and friend Professor Louise Shelley for her support and providing advice. I want to acknowledge with thanks the institutions and programs that funded my studies at St Andrews: Overseas Research Students Award Scheme (ORSAS); University of St Andrews PhD scholarship in the field of regional security studies and Open Society Institute (OSI) Global Supplementary Grant. The field research would not have been possible without the generous support of Russell Trust of St Andrews University and British Association for Slavonic and Eastern European Studies (BASEES). I am grateful to Social Research Center, American University of Central Asia (SRC) in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan and Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting in Kiev, Ukraine for hosting me during the field research and for helping in locating the data and contacting the respondents. Many thanks to the staff of Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC) in Georgia for their assistance. I am indebted to over one hundred respondents in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. Certainly this study would not have been possible without their help. I am grateful to two good friends Tamara Makarenko and Daphne Biliouri for their care and for conversations that clarified my thinking on this and other matters. I also want to thank my fellow PhD students. Their friendship and professional collaboration meant a great deal to me. I also acknowledge with thanks Sarah Forbey for editing the dissertation and finally, I wish to thank my father Vladimer Kupatadze, my mother Nana Kakhniashvili and my sister Teona Kupatadze for their love, encouragement and for believing in me. iii ABSTRACT This dissertation addresses organized crime in post-Soviet Eurasia (Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan) exploring the nexus between politics, business and crime. Based on extensive field research in the three countries the dissertation examines organized crime groups in the region and describes their inter-relationships with political and business elites, then discusses the impact of the three countries’ Coloured Revolutions on crime and corruption. The impacts of the revolutions on organized crime are situated in several variables, among them political opposition to incumbent regimes; the strength of civil society and the role of organized crime groups during the revolutionary processes; personal morals of the leaders and their views on cooperation with organized crime; and the presence and nature of the “pact” between outgoing and incoming elites. The dissertation also takes into account larger explanatory variables, such as geography, natural resources, industry, and regional wars and documents their role in shaping organized crime. In accounting for the diverging patterns of the three countries in terms of post-revolutionary effects on crime and corruption, the role of the West, defined as a “push” factor for democratization, and the experience of earlier statehood are also considered. The interaction between elites and criminals is regarded as a crucial part of state formation, and is characterized by shifting dominance between the actors of the underworld and upperworld. The thesis identifies points of cooperation and conflict between licit and illicit actors, and provides insight into the collusive nature of criminal networks in the post- Soviet context, arguing that the distinction between licit and illicit is frequently blurred and the representatives of the upperworld are sometimes key participants in organized criminal activity. iv TABLE of CONTENTS Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1. Defining state, regime, revolution and transition 2. Defining organized crime and corruption 3.Thesis Outline Chapter 2. Methodology 14 2. Methodology 1. Sources of Research 1.1. Primary sources 1.2 Secondary sources 2. Research Challenges 3. Validity of the data 4. Research ethics Chapter 3. Theoretical framework 20 1.Understanding organized crime through the lens of the political-business-criminal nexus 1.1.Political-criminal nexus 1.1.1.Underworld Dominance 1.1.2.Elite Dominance 1.1.3.Symbiotic Balance 1.2. Underworld – Upperworld Continuum 2.Criminalization of the State or State Capture 3. Network approach and organized crime groups in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan 4.Toward measuring the change in organized crime Chapter 4. Impact of Soviet and post-Soviet Organized Crime 47 1.Gangs and new criminal entrepreneurs 2. Professional criminals (Vory v Zakone) 3. Nomenklatura and police/KGB networks 4.Criminal networks in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan 4.1. The Shadow economy in the three countries Chapter 5. Rose, Orange and Tulip Revolutions 82 1. United and fragmented oppositions 2. The role of organized crime groups in the revolutions v Chapter 6. Post-revolutionary state-building and democratizing 89 1. The presence of the “Old Guard” 2. The survival of patrimonialism 3. Redistribution of spoils 4. Corruption and collusion: before and after the Revolutions Chapter 7. Former smuggling heavens or permanent black holes? 115 1. Transdniester: “Black hole” in the Ukrainian border? 1.2. Odessa 2. Smuggling through Georgia’s uncontrolled territories 2.1. Abkhazia and South Ossetia 2.2. Adjara 2.3. Pankisi Gorge 3. The Fergana Valley and its role in smuggling through Kyrgyzstan Chapter 8. From criminals to politicians: Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan 130 1.Ukraine – Privatisation and re-privatisation: from shadowy takeovers to corporate raiding 1.1.General trends in underworld-upperworld relations 1.2. Prikhvatizatsia and the emergence of oligarchy 1.3. The development of corrupt economy in Donetsk region 1.4. The effect of the Orange Revolution 2. Georgia – Extortion: from Professional criminals to the ‘Revolutionary Government’ 2.1. Mkhedrioni 2.2. The changing dynamics of dominance between underworld and upperworld actors 2.3. The fight against organized crime after the Rose Revolution 2.3.1. “One’s own criminals” v. “Bad criminals” 2.4. The re-emerging political-criminal nexus? 3. Kyrgyzstan’s Drug Trafficking: from Sportsmeny and Ugalovniki to Police and Elites 3.1. Drugs trade in Kyrgyzstan 3.2. State Capture by political elites: ruling families in Kyrgyzstan 4.Criminals hijacking the law enforcement system or law enforcers monopolizing organized criminal activity? Conclusions 197 Appendices 207 Appendix 1. Quantitative measurements of changes in organized crime Appendix 2. Georgia’s anti-corruption drive – an old tune Appendix 3. Interview questionnaire Appendix 4. Maps Bibliography 232 vi List of charts and tables CHARTS Chart 1. Underworld-Upperworld continuum Chart 2. Political-Criminal Continuum Chart 3. Voice and accountability indicator for Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan (World Bank) Chart 4. Press freedom index for Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan (Reporters without Borders) Chart 5. Dynamics of the Corruption Perception Index in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan (Transparency International) Chart 6. Control of corruption indicators in Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan (World Bank) Chart 7. Bribe frequency (EBRD data of 2002 and 2005 compared) Chart 8.