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Transition Towns 4 Energy Scenarios 3 1 Transition Towns catalysing responses to peak oil ASPO 6 – Cork, 18 th September 2007. Rob Hopkins Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Plymouth Univer sity. 4 Energy Scenarios Proactive Response Government, Society, Technology & Markets 3 1 Rapid Slow Depletion Depletion and/or early and/or later peaking peaking 4 2 Reactive Response Markets, Technology, Bryn Davidson Dynamic Cities Project. Society & Government 4 Energy Scenarios Proactive Response Government, Society, Technology & Markets “Lean Economy” “Techno-Markets” aka “Powerdown” aka “Sustainable Development” Rapid Slow Depletion Depletion and/or early and/or later peaking “Collapse” “Burnout” peaking aka “Mad Max” aka “Climate Chaos” aka “Easter Island” aka “Business as Usual” aka “90s Cuba/Russia” Reactive Response * per David Fleming Markets, Technology, Bryn Davidson Society & Government Dynamic Cities Project. Peak Oil & Climate Change PLANNED CLIMATE CHANGE PEAK OIL RELOCALISATION (a la Stern Report) (a la Hirsch Report) (building local resilience) coal to liquids climate engineering Tradable Energy Quotas gas to liquids carbon capture and decentralised energy storage relaxed drilling infrastructure regulations tree -based carbon the Great Reskilling offsets massively scaled localised food biofuels international production (food feet) emissions trading tar sands and non - energy descent climate adaptation conventional oils planning resource improved local currencies nationalism and transportation local medicinal capacity stockpiling logistics nuclear power Inter -related Responses. Resilience is not a New Idea. Totnes in the 1930 ’s… © Totnes Image Bank Resilience “In a resilient system, individual nodes – like people, companies, communities and even whole countries – are able to draw on support and resources from elsewhere, but they ’re also self -sufficient enough to provide for their essential needs in an emergency. Yet in our drive to hyper -connect and globalise all the world ’s economic and technological networks, we ’ve forgotten the last half of this injunction ”. Homer -Dixon, T. (2007) The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization. London, Souvenir Press. Totnes Before Rail … © Totnes Image Bank George Heath. A Powerdown Pioneer. © Totnes Image Bank 1981 2007 © Totnes Image Bank Food - Urban Gardens in Cuba Downtown Havana Relocalisation “… localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative ” David Fleming The Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan Available to download at www.transitionculture.org Transition Initiatives – an idea goes viral. Transition Initiatives. Totnes, Kinsale, Ivybridge, Falmouth, Stroud, Ashburton, Forest Row, Moretonhampstead, Lewes, Ottery St. Mary, Brixton, Mayfield, Glastonbury, Lostwithiel, Forest of Dean, Penwith, Nottingham, Wrington, Brighton and Hove. “Mullers ” England : Alton, Anlaby,Balsall Heath, Birmingham, Banbury, Barkingside, Barnet, Barnstaple, Bath, Beaminster, Belbroughton, Belper, Bentlawnt, Berkhamsted, Birmingham , Bollington, Bourton-on-the-Water, Bovey Tracey, Bradford , Brampton , Brentford , Brighton & Hove (now official Transition City), Brilley, Bromsgrove, Buxton, Cambridge , Canterbury, Carlisle , Chagford, Chalford, Cheltenham, Childs Hill, London, Chipping Sodbury, Cornhill-on-Tweed, Corsham, Cotesbach, Coventry, Crediton, Crewe, Dawlish, Daysland, Derby, Doncaster, Dunkeswell, Dunster, Ely, Emsworth, Essex, Exeter, Forest of Dean, Godmanstone, Grantham, Grasmere, Hadlow , Haringey, Headcorn, Hebden Bridge, Hereford, Holsworthy, Horfield, Bristol, Hull, Hulme, Manchester, Hungerford, Isle of Man, Isle of Wight, Jarrow, Kendal, Kenilworth , Kirkbymoorside, Lancaster, Leamington Spa, Leeds, Leicester, Liverpool, London, Lyme Regis, Maidenhead, Maidstone, Market Deeping, Market Harborough, Marsden, Merton, Milford, Newark South, Newbury, Newhaven, Northhants, Norwich, Otley, Oxford, Paignton, Peckham, Penryn, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Reading, Seaton, Shapwick, Sheffield, Shoreditch, London, South Brent, Street, Swanage, Swindon, Teme Valley, Thatcham, Thornbury, Tolleshunt D'Arcy, Tooting, Torquay, Torridge, Trafford, Trowbridge, Truro, Uckfield, University of East Anglia, Vale of Belvoir, Wantage, Wardington, West Mersea, Westcliff-on-Sea, Weymouth, Whitstable, Winchester, Winslow, Winster, Witney, Woking, Wolvercote, Wolverton, Wotton-under-Edge, Wrexham, Wrington, Yatesbury. Wales Abergavenny, Aberystwyth, Anglesea, Bridgend, Cardiff, Cardigan, Chepstow, Crickhowell, Cwmafan, Afan Valley, Drefach Felindre, Fishguard, Flintshire, Holyhead, Lampeter, Llandeilo, Llanwrtyd Wells, Machynlleth, Monmouth, Newtown, Newport (Pembs), Penrhys, Pontyclun, Presteigne, Rhayader, St Davids, Swansea, Ystradgynlais Scotland Aberdeen, Alness, Belhaven, Scotland, Dunbar, Dundee, East Kilbride, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Gorebridge, Lochwinnoch, Partick, Glasgow, Rosyth, Stirling, West Kilbride Northern Ireland Belfast Ireland Kinsale, Drimnagh, Dublin, Enniscorthy, Kildare, Inishlyre, Mayo Island Rest of World. Australia : Abbotsford, VIC, Canberra, ACT, Castlemaine, VIC, Darlinghurst, Sydney, NSW, Geelong, Surf Coast Shire, VIC, Jimboomba, QLD, Maleny, QLD, Melbourne, VIC, Uki, NSW, Windsor, NSW * Canada : St John, NB, Vancouver, BC * France : Paris , Chambery * Israel : Tel Aviv * Italy : Milan, Morbegno, Trento, Turin * New Zealand : Golden Bay, Hawkes Bay, Waiheke Island * Spain : Barcelona, Asturias * Sweden : Luleå * USA : Arlington, VA, Asheville, NC , Ashland, OR, Bellingham, WA, Mill Valley, CA, Point Reyes, CA, Putney, Vermont , Sandpoint, Idaho ("Panhandle Localisation"), Seattle, WA, Washington, WA The 4 Recognitions of the Transition Movement. 1. Life with less energy is inevitable and it is better to plan for it than be taken by surprise 2. We have lost the resilience to be able to cope with energy shocks 3. We have to act for ourselves and we have to act now 4. By unleashing the collective genius of the community we can design ways of living that are more enriching, satisfying and connected than the present. The 12 Steps of Transition. Step 1: Form a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from the Outset. Step Two: Awareness Raising … Visiting Speakers … Sept – Dec ’06. Chris Johnstone Penny Livingstone-Stark Helena Norberg-Hodge Chris Skrebowski Guy Watson Jeremy Leggett Paul Mobbs Patrick Holden Bob Flowerdew Vandana Shiva David Fleming Wolfgang Sachs Peter Russell Herbert Girardet Aubrey Meyer Peter Lipman Tony Juniper Bill Dunster Molly Scott Cato Bob Tomlinson Jerry Mander Andrew Simms Richard Heinberg Step 3: Lay the Foundations. • Collaborate where possible • Co-operation, not competition. Working with Business Oil Vulnerability Analysis. Totnes first town in the UK to train OVA team and conduct pilot analyses. Working with Liverpool University Oil Depletion Impact Group. Two pilot studies reported back September 2007, more to follow. Endorsed by Totnes Chamber of Commerce Working with Local Landowners. Estates in Transition conference. June 11 th 2007. Step 4. The Official Unleashing “Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”. Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06. Step 5: Form Working Groups. Up and Running Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health / Housing In formation; Education, Youth, Transport. Step 6: Use Open Space Technology. Step 7: Develop Visible Manifestations of the Project. “Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007. The Totnes Local Food Directory. The Totnes Pound Transition Tales Step 8: Facilitate the Great Reskilling Skilling Up for Powerdown. Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning … Using You Tube to Communicate Transition Town ideas. Great Reskilling courses. Wild Foods, natural building, seed saving, hand made paints, stove building, forest gardening, food growing, bread making... Step 9: Build a Bridge to Local Government World Cafe on Peak Oil and Climate Change with Local Councillors Endorsed by Totnes Town Council Contributions to Local Development Framework. Step 10: Honour the Elders. Step 11: Let It Go Where It Wants to Go. Solar Water Heater Challenge. The Totnes Renewable Energy Supply Company (TRESCO) Lending Library. NISP workshops Car Share Club TTT International Youth Music Festival. Step 12: Create an Energy Descent Action Plan. Start with a vision and then backcast Incorporate Transition Tales Base it on current planning documents. Transition Training. www.transitionculture.org www.transitiontowns.org Forthcoming... “Small is Inevitable: the coming transition from oil dependency to local resilience – A Handbook ”. To be published by Green Books March 2008. .
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