“A Glimpse Into the Post-Petroleum Future”

“A Glimpse into the Post-Petroleum Future”

This slide show is a free download at thegreatchange.com New York NY Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 License October 4, 2007

If a path to the better there be, it begins with a look at the worst.

— Robert Hardy (1840 - 1928) WORLD OIL SUPPLY & DEMAND: LOWER 48 PRODUCTION PATTERN & EXTRAPOLATED DEMAND GROWTH Peak Oil Extrapolated Demand - Growing World Economy

120

100 Shortage

PRODUCTION 60 (MM bpd) L 48 production Assumed: 40 pattern • Demand @ 2% 20 • Oil Decline @ 2% 0 • Peak @ 100 MM bpd -20 -10 0 +10 +20 (Not a prediction) YEARS BEFORE / AFTER OIL PEAK

SAIC / MISI The USA gets its oil from:

Canada Saudi Arabia Mexico Venezuela In 2001, PEMEX built the world’s largest nitrogen injection plant to increase reservoir pressure at Cantarell. Production doubled to nearly 2 million barrels a day, but last year went into precipitous, apparently terminal decline.

It is currently declining at 14% per year, or half every 5 years Raúl Muñoz Leos, director general de Petróleos Mexicanos

Jul 27 (Prensa Latina): Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) announced that oil reserves may run out in seven years.

Even if heavy investments were made now, new oil ﬁelds would take from six to eight years to be ready and, consequently, Mexico may have to import oil to satisfy the internal market, it warned. Saudi Arabia Production Peak Oil

Acknowledgement: The Oil Drum Canada and Venezuela

Then Now

Acknowledgement: Nate Hagens The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk Peak Oil management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking. —U.S. Department of Energy, March 2005 [F]ederal agencies currently have no

coordinated or well-deﬁned strategy Peak Oil either to reduce uncertainty about the timing of a peak or to mitigate its consequences. This lack of a strategy makes it difﬁcult to gauge the appropriate level of effort or resources to commit to alternatives to oil and puts the nation unnecessarily at risk.

— U.S. Govt Accountability Ofﬁce, March 30, 2007 Sweden will: Peak Oil

. Ration energy to all industries . Convert entirely to biofuels and passive solar for space heating . Continue the CO2 tax introduced in 1991 . Increase the tax on energy use threefold by 2010 . Participate in the Kyoto trading regime . Continue retiring nuclear plants as wind power comes on line . Develop 10 TWhr of installed wind energy by 2015, well more than provided by the 8 remaining nukes

Peak Oil k? ea hen is the P W World Oil Production 2002-2006 and 5-year Average Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air & ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change February 2007 Acknowledgment: Brock Dolman, Occidental Arts and Ecology TheThe FaFarmrm

The Farm

18 Key Findings IPCC-4 - Holdren Group - Pentagon - Stern - Lynas - Pearce - Lovelock

IPCC-3 (2001) understated the risk It is possible we could see a 6.4°C increase by 2100 Exceeding 2 - 2.5°C above 1750 levels would entail intolerable impacts (ie: risk of human extinction) due to tipping points We are already 1°C above 1750 levels The observed rate of warming is accelerating There is no guarantee that stopping all carbon emissions now would halt the rise of temperature IPCC-3 (2001) projected temperature rise scenarios vs. IPCC-4 (2006) observed 20°C

18°C You are here 17°C

16°C

1900 2000 2100

Source: Bates, Post-Petroleum Survival Guide (2006) Climate Change

Source: Met Ofﬁce, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (Reading Unit), Meteorology Building, University of Reading, UK

The Hockey Stick Climate Change

Cox, Jones, Andreae conjecture. published in Nature The Hockey Stick 1. Introduction

The new challenge of uncertainty Over just the last few years, One thing is clear: the era 1.1 major government, business and community leaders in the United of easy oil is over... [M]any States and Canada have been changing their expectations about the of the world’s oil and gas ﬁelds are maturing. And future of energy and the environment. new energy discoveries are Most credible observers now recognize that our global energy supply and our global cli- mainly occurring in places mate face radical change in the coming decades if we do not radically change the way our where resources are difﬁcult industrialized economies consume energy. Global warming is widely accepted as a serious to extract, physically, problem needing immediate and far-reaching action. Peak oil—the coming decline of global economically, and even oil production—is not as widely understood, but presents a similarly complex set of politically. challenges. – From Chevron’s “Will You Join The problem posed by peak oil and global warming is ultimately one of uncertainty: both Us?” advertising campaign, phenomena are creating changes in economies and ecosystems at the global, regional and February 2006 even local levels that we cannot easily predict. For local governments—responsible for man- aging local public services and planning for future land use and transportation—this new ...[W]e have at most ten years uncertainty creates a wide variety of risks and vulnerabilities. How will local jobs be – not ten years to decide upon affected if the price of oil hits $100 a barrel? How will regional climate shifts affect the local water supply? Local governments need to understand and respond to these challenges. action, but ten years to alter This section will: fundamentally the trajectory of global greenhouse —introduce the issues of peak oil and global warming, emissions. —describe how these phenomena are creating uncertainty about our energy supplies and – James Hansen, Director, NASA climate, and Goddard Institute for Space Studies, —explain the urgency for local governments to address this pressing problem. “The Threat to the Planet,” New York Review of Books, 13 July 2006

www.postcarboncities.net Section 1.1 – Page 1

ABRIDGED VERSION :: TO ORDER FULL VERSION VISIT WWW.POSTCARBONCITIES.NET/GUIDEBOOK Is this the future? Is this the future?

New York City (Friends Meeting House) as protected by the US Army Corps of Engineers 2025

World Population

9 billion

6 billion

3 billion

1 billion Bacteria in bottle double

every minute

How much time?

2 minutes

www.globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/645 www.hubbertpeak.com/bartlett/

Extreme Warming 5-15°C Plan A Plan D Worst Case Stable Hot Hot Chaos

Stable Plan B Plan C Chaos and (growth) Collapse Economy Plan B Plan C

Stable Cool Cool Chaos Plan A Plan D Best Case

Slightly Warmer < 1°C Building Lifeboats

Emergency Preparation • Assume crisis in days or weeks • Prioritize most urgent needs • water • food • health • security • shelter • mobility • Near-term preps: 1 to 3 days • Long-term preps: weeks, months, years The metaphor has its limits. PeakPeak OilOil && ClimateClimate ChangeChange

CLIMATE CHANGE PEAK OIL RELOCALIZATION (building local drought mitigation coal to liquids resilience) dikes and levies gas to liquids climate engineering relaxed drilling tradable energy quotas carbon capture and regulations decentralised energy storage drilling the arctic, infrastructure tree-based carbon deep ocean the Great Reskilling offsets massively scaled localized food international emissions biofuels production (food feet) trading tar sands and non- energy descent planning climate adaptation conventional oils local currencies improved North American local medicinal capacity transportation Union cohousing logistics resource nationalism ecovillages wind, tidal, wave, and stockpiling transition towns nuclear power

acknowledgement: Rob Hopkins Meme being propagated is dangerous nonsense; need a rapid change to a smart, peaceful meme. “…localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative”

- David Fleming What is Permaculture?

◊ “permanent (agri) culture” ◊ aikido, not karate ◊ cultivated ecosystems ◊ a better energy descent pathway Basics of Permaculture

◊ Careful and protracted observation ◊ Evidence before conviction, then ◊ Ethical action, based on ◊ Principles, applied cautiously

Time is on our side. Permaculture Ethics

1. Earth Care 2. People Care 3. Surplus Share The Significance of Permaculture

◊ Long-term view is important • Both past (history) and future • Requires decisionmakers to gain a deep understanding ◊ Takes lots of time – very complex issues ◊ Energy and climate are the economic basis of civilization

◊ Precautionary principle should be the guideline • Common error is “Technology will save us” • The risks are profound

◊ There is only one alternative to sustainability — extinction

Urban needs assessment

• Food is not defined as an urban planning issue; assumed to be rural by tradition; • Food • City Farming is illegal in many places; • Water • Concrete covers some of the best farming land; • Municipal composting is the exception, not the • Shelter rule; • Employment • There is usually only about a 3-day supply of food in most markets; • Transportation • There is often considerable distance between • Energy residents and their sources of food; • There is no resilency in the system for sudden • Culture shortages, price spikes, or natural disasters The oil we eat...

Lester Brown

For the sixth time in the past seven years, the human race will grow less food than it eats this year. We closed the gap by eating into food stocks accumulated in better times, but there is no doubt that the situation is getting serious. The world's food stocks have shrunk by half since 1999, from a reserve big enough to feed the entire world for 116 days then to only 57 days now. Urban solutions

• Permaculture brings nutritional, social, ecological and economic benefits; • Food • Light rail can reduce traffic and open highways for • Water gardens; • In many countries 80% of urban gardeners are • Shelter women for whom this is the sole source of income; • Employment • Municipal composting systems work; • In Tokyo all new buildings larger than 1000 m2 are • Transportation required to cover 20% of the roof with vegetation; • Energy • Bus lines can be modified to connect neighborhoods with supermarkets; markets can be localized; • Culture • Cuba, China and elsewhere provide examples of urban gardening as a major food source. Cuba’s Special Period

The era in Cuba following the Soviet collapse is known to Cubans as the Special Period. Cuba lost 80 % of its export market and its imports fell by 80 %. The Gross Domestic Product dropped by more than one third. Photo by John Morgan The average daily caloric intake in Cuba dropped by a third.

Obtaining enough food for the day became the primary activity for many, if not most, Cubans. Today an estimated 50 percent of Havana's vegetables come from inside the city, while in other Cuban towns and cities urban gardens produce from 80 percent to more than 100 percent of what they need. With meat scarce and fresh local vegetables in abundance since 1995, Cubans now eat a healthy, low-fat, nearly vegetarian, diet. In integrated rooftop farms cages of rabbits and hens fertilize many large container plants. Running free on the roof are gerbils, which also eat the waste from the rabbits. Dusseldorf, Germany Public Financed Ecovillage Boston Fenway Gardens Boston Fenway Gardens

The only European nation exporting bananas is … Iceland. Boston Fenway Gardens Urban needs assessment

Supply: • Food • People need water -- 24 l/d/p for all uses; • Water • Most cities are built near abundant sources of water; • Most cities severely pollute those same sources; • Shelter • Treatment is expensive and uses lots of energy; • Employment • Delivery can be expensive and use lots of energy; • Transportation • Most rainfall on cities becomes pollution; • Energy • Far more fresh water is wasted than is used; • Culture • In many places it is illegal to catch and use rainwater, or to treat and re-use greywater. Urban needs solutions

Supply: • Food • Distributed sources • Water • Rainwater from buildings • Community taps • Shelter • Neighborhood ponds and reedbeds • Employment • Water re-use • Transportation • Energy • Culture Urban needs assessment

Runoff • In urban areas, a small storm event can result in a large amount of runoff because there are not many places that catch rainwater • Food and allow it to soak into the ground.

• Water • The larger amount of runoff is forced to fit into existing stream channels. For this to happen, the runoff water must travel faster in • Shelter the stream channel. The larger amount of water and the faster speed at which the water travels increase the risk of flooding • Employment downstream.

• Transportation • The faster-moving water in the streams erodes stream channels and carries sediment downstream.

• Energy • The runoff picks up pollutants from streets and sidewalks. Because there is less vegetated surface in an urban setting, the • Culture pollution is less likely to be filtered out of the water before it is carried downstream to other waterbodies. Runoff • Food • Water • Shelter • Employment • Transportation • Energy • Culture Urban needs assessment

• Cities are needed for residence and commerce; • Most cities control growth by limiting new building; • Food • Cities expand by sprawl -- Los Angeles example; • Water • Lending institutions are central players; • Buildings use lots of energy and produce CO2; • Shelter • Retrofits can be expensive and use lots of energy; • Employment • Construction produces pollution; • Many locations that will be untenable with peak oil • Transportation and climate change are now thickly settled; • Energy • In many places it is illegal to use natural materials and green building methods. • Culture Urban solutions

• Buildings are changing to become more energy efficient through improved materials and lighting; • Food • Public housing, schools and non-profits can be • Water demonstration models, showing the way; • Shelter • Alternative finance is a growing industry; • Buildings can generate their own energy and recycle • Employment their own wastes; they can also be CO2 sinks; • Transportation • Natural buildings and green buildings are making in- • Energy roads in building codes and the construction trades. • Culture Königsburg, Germany Zero Energy Public Housing Königsburg, Germany Zero Energy Public Housing Los Angeles Eco-Village, USA • BedZED provides 82 residential homes with a mixture of tenures, 34 for outright sale, 23 for shared ownership, 10 for key workers and 15 at affordable rent for social housing – with a further 14 studio apartments for sale.

The Beddington Zero Energy Development (BedZED) is the UK's largest carbon- neutral eco-community Urban needs assessment

• Cities determine national wealth • Cities are engines of rural development • Food • Healthy economies have diversity • Water • Sector balance • Shelter • Skilled and unskilled • Employment • Entry level jobs • Public service opportunities • Transportation • Fair trade and right livelihood • Energy • Work at home or close to home • Culture Urban solutions

• Car cooperatives • Sustainable development bureaus • Food • Incubators for products/services • Water • Affordable housing • Local self-reliance initiatives • Shelter • CSAs, CSEs, and CSMs • Employment • Local currencies and markets • Community ownership • Transportation • Jobs for disabled and unskilled • Energy • Subsidized transport, medical, shelter and essential needs for the underprivileged. • Culture Urban needs assessment

Problem areas: • Urban environment designed for cars • Food • Destruction of community, climate, health • Water • Loss of light and heavy rail infrastructure • Loss of waterfront commerce • Shelter • Sprawl remoteness from markets/offices • Employment • Aging and obsolete infrastructure • Petrochemical smog • Transportation • Congestion and lost productivity • Energy • Loss of forest and field to highways • Greenhouse gases, lead, and noise • Culture Urban solutions

• Mass transit options that are faster, cheaper and easier than cars • Food • Traffic calming • Water • Paths for walking, bicycles & segues • Bike-to-rail • Shelter • Car-share, ride-share, and car-free • Employment • Density at the inner city • Non-motorized taxis • Transportation • Smart jitneys • Energy • Culture

German National Plan on Bicycles (2002-2012): • Broaden cycle tracks • Increase interconnections between tracks • D-Netz long-distance tracks • Invest $100 million over 10 years • Target: 30% of car/bike conversion by 2012 • 23.5 mmt CO2/yr reduction (90% of national goal for traffic)

Germany will: •Phase in km/kg vehicle tax of up to 15 cents per km for HGVs •Subsidize 1-litre cars •Accelerate conversion to fuel cell hybrids •Invest 2.6 bbl/yr in waterways •Move 20% of commerce to water by 2015 Urban needs assessment

• Energy comes from great distances • Highly centralized distribution system • Food • Very inefficient generation, transport, and • Water end-use, with most BTUs being wasted • TVA: Hydro, Coal, Nuclear • Shelter • Electrical pollution • Employment • Fossil fuels supporting nearly everything • Renewables marginalized • Transportation • Energy • Culture Urban solutions

• Conservation -- captured negawatts • Decentralized small scale generation • Food • Zero net energy homes and offices • Water • Transportation revolution • Local food production • Shelter • Phase out fossil fuels & nuclear • Employment • Go solar • PLANT TREES! • Transportation • Energy • Culture Urban needs assessment

• Cities are centers of culture • Avoid capitalism and consumerism • Food • Creeping militarism and fascism • Water • The arts as antidotes for cultural decay • Education • Shelter • Public awareness, media and access • Employment • Cauldrons of change, experimentalism • Spiritual growth • Transportation • Social justice • Energy • Culture Urban Solutions

• Conflict transformation • Building consensus • Food • Alternative economics • Water • Re-localization and downsizing • The Arts • Shelter • Education • Employment • Public awareness, media and access • Solar streets and wilderness alleys • Transportation • Fingers to forest • Energy • Be the change you want to see • Culture The Kinsale Energy Descent Action Plan

Available to download at www.transitionculture.org Transition Towns The Village Cloughjordon, Ireland Strategies complementary currencies non-violent communication stakeholder analysis consensus & facilitation home energy retroﬁts car share, ride share organic farming holistic medicine reskilliing workshops energy descent planning

CSAs, CSEs, CSMs vegan cuisine natural/green building alternative education “Mullers”

England: Alton, Anlaby,Balsall Heath, Birmingham, Banbury, Barkingside, Barnet, Barnstaple, Bath, Beaminster, Belbroughton, Belper, Bentlawnt, Berkhamsted, Birmingham , Bollington, Bourton-on-the-Water, Bovey Tracey, Bradford , Brampton , Brentford , Brighton & Hove (now official Transition City), Brilley, Bromsgrove, Buxton, Cambridge , Canterbury, Carlisle , Chagford, Chalford, Cheltenham, Childs Hill, London, Chipping Sodbury, Cornhill-on-Tweed, Corsham, Cotesbach, Coventry, Crediton, Crewe, Dawlish, Daysland, Derby, Doncaster, Dunkeswell, Dunster, Ely, Emsworth, Essex, Exeter, Forest of Dean, Godmanstone, Grantham, Grasmere, Hadlow , Haringey, Headcorn, Hebden Bridge, Hereford, Holsworthy, Horfield, Bristol, Hull, Hulme, Manchester, Hungerford, Isle of Man, Isle of Wight, Jarrow, Kendal, Kenilworth , Kirkbymoorside, Lancaster, Leamington Spa, Leeds, Leicester, Liverpool, London, Lyme Regis, Maidenhead, Maidstone, Market Deeping, Market Harborough, Marsden, Merton, Milford, Newark South, Newbury, Newhaven, Northhants, Norwich, Otley, Oxford, Paignton, Peckham, Penryn, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Reading, Seaton, Shapwick, Sheffield, Shoreditch, London, South Brent, Street, Swanage, Swindon, Teme Valley, Thatcham, Thornbury, Tolleshunt D'Arcy, Tooting, Torquay, Torridge, Trafford, Trowbridge, Truro, Uckfield, University of East Anglia, Vale of Belvoir, Wantage, Wardington, West Mersea, Westcliff-on-Sea, Weymouth, Whitstable, Winchester, Winslow, Winster, Witney, Woking, Wolvercote, Wolverton, Wotton-under-Edge, Wrexham, Wrington, Yatesbury. Wales Abergavenny, Aberystwyth, Anglesea, Bridgend, Cardiff, Cardigan, Chepstow, Crickhowell, Cwmafan, Afan Valley, Drefach Felindre, Fishguard, Flintshire, Holyhead, Lampeter, Llandeilo, Llanwrtyd Wells, Machynlleth, Monmouth, Newtown, Newport (Pembs), Penrhys, Pontyclun, Presteigne, Rhayader, St Davids, Swansea, Ystradgynlais Scotland Aberdeen, Alness, Belhaven, Scotland, Dunbar, Dundee, East Kilbride, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Gorebridge, Lochwinnoch, Partick, Glasgow, Rosyth, Stirling, West Kilbride Northern Ireland Belfast Ireland Kinsale, Drimnagh, Dublin, Enniscorthy, Kildare, Inishlyre, Mayo Island Rest of World. Australia: Abbotsford, VIC, Canberra, ACT, Castlemaine, VIC, Darlinghurst, Sydney, NSW, Geelong, Surf Coast Shire, VIC, Jimboomba, QLD, Maleny, QLD, Melbourne, VIC, Uki, NSW, Windsor, NSW * Canada: St John, NB, Vancouver, BC * France: Paris , Chambery * Israel : Tel Aviv * Italy: Milan, Morbegno, Trento, Turin * New Zealand : Golden Bay, Hawkes Bay, Waiheke Island * Spain: Barcelona, Asturias * Sweden : Luleå * USA : Arlington, VA, Asheville, NC , Ashland, OR, Bellingham, WA, Mill Valley, CA, Point Reyes, CA, Portland OR, Putney, Vermont , Sandpoint, Idaho ("Panhandle Localisation"), Seattle, WA, Washington, WA Martha Stewart Natural Food (Tsubu-tsubu): Soba (buckwheat noodles), millet and sorghum (fried), wild vegetables and pickles. The 4 Recognitions of the Transition Movement.

Life with less energy is inevitable and it is better to plan for it than be taken by surprise

We have lost the resilience to be able to cope with energy shocks

We have to act for ourselves and we have to act now

By unleashing the collective genius of the community we can design ways of living that are more enriching, satisfying and connected than the present.

Two point Survival Plan

reduce consumption

produce locally Which is more valuable?

1. Time

2. Money

Take your time. We stand at an unique historical moment...

... will we surf or swim? It’s our choice. This slide show is a free download at thegreatchange.com Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 License

Shih / K’un / K’an Prepare

A test is about to take place. www.i4at.org institute for appropriate technology 85 “Don’t ask if there is a conspiracy at work. If you are not in one, start one.” — Catherine Austin Fitts

This slide show is a free download at thegreatchange.com Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 License