RECENT DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN REGINA AND

Presentation to the

Doug Elliott Emerging Business Trends Conference Sask Trends Monitor Regina Chamber of Commerce 444 19th Avenue Regina, Saskatchewan S4N 1H1 Tel: 306-522-5515 November 14, 2012 Fax: 306-522-5838 Email: [email protected] Internet: www.sasktrends.ca OUTLINE

• Recent Demographic Trends in Saskatchewan and Regina • Births and Deaths • Interprovincial Migration • International Migration • Intraprovincial Migration

• Comparisons with Other Western Cities

• Age Distributions

November 14, 2012

2 CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA OR CMA

• Most of ’s demographic and economic data refer to the Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) rather than the City proper. Lumsden Edenwold • The CMA includes the four RMs around Regina as well as the “bedroom” communities of Balgonie, Edenwold, Emerald Park, Lumsden, Regina Beach, Pense, etc. Belle Plaine Pense • The city proper represented 92% of the CMA population in 2011.

November 14, 2012

3 COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE NOTES

• There are four interrelated factors that determine the size and structure of the provincial or a city population. • The natural growth rate is the number of births less the number of deaths. • The direct movement to or from other countries is called, respectively, international emigration or immigration. • The migration to or from other provinces is called interprovincial migration. • A city has a fourth factor – the migration to or from the metropolitan area from other parts of the province – called intraprovincial migration. These factors affect the age of the population as well as the absolute size; they are related in complex ways.

• Most demographic data are published on a “census year” basis which runs from July 1 to June 30 of the following year.

• Unless otherwise indicated, the data in this section are from Statistics Canada. The figures after 2006 to date are preliminary and subject to revisions. The forecasts and estimates are the responsibility of Sask Trends Monitor.

• The figures exclude non-permanent residents such as temporary foreign workers.

November 14, 2012

5 DETERMINANTS OF POPULATION: NATURAL GROWTH, SASKATCHEWAN

Natural Growth (Births less Deaths) in • After dropping throughout Saskatchewan,1990-91 to 2011-12 Estimate most of the 1980s and 1990s, 18 the natural growth rate is thousands increasing in Saskatchewan. 16 • The decline in the number of 14 births during the 1990s was Births caused by 12 • declining fertility rates, compounded by 10 • a drop in the number of women in the child- 8 Deaths bearing age groups. Recent increases are the 6 result of reversal in both of these trends. 4

Natural Increase • The gradual increase in the 2 number of deaths is occurring because lower 0 1990- 1992- 1994- 1996- 1998- 2000- 2002- 2004- 2006- 2008- 2010- mortality rates are offset by 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 an increasing number of people in older age groups. July to June

November 14, 2012

6 NATURAL GROWTH IN THE REGINA CMA

Natural Growth (Births less Deaths) in the Regina CMA, 1996-97 to 2010-11 Estimate • The Regina Census Metropolitan Area is 3.0 thousands undergoing a similar increase in the natural growth rate. 2.5 Births • Natural growth is adding 2.0 about 1,000 infants per year to the city. Deaths

1.5

1.0

0.5 Natural Increase

0.0 1996- 1998- 2000- 2002- 2004- 2006- 2008- 2010- 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

July to June

November 14, 2012 7 DETERMINANTS OF POPULATION: INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION

International Migration (Immigration and Emigration) • Immigration to the province to/from Saskatchewan, 1990-91 to 2011-12 est has increased exponentially 13 in recent years because of thousands 12 the Saskatchewan Immigrant Nominee Program 11 (SINP). 10

9 • The number of immigrants living in the province is still 8 small compared with other 7 provinces.

6 • Retention of international 5 immigrants has been a 4 problem in the past. How Immigration Net Flow many of these newcomers 3 Emigration will stay is an open question. 2

1

0 1990- 1992- 1994- 1996- 1998- 2000- 2002- 2004- 2006- 2008- 2010- 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

July to June

November 14, 2012

8 INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION TO/FROM THE REGINA CMA

International Migration (Immigration and Emigration) to/from the Regina CMA, 1996-97 to 2010-11 est • Regina has received at least it’s fair share of the 3.0 new immigrants to thousands Saskatchewan. About a third of international 2.5 immigration is directly to the Regina CMA.

2.0 • International immigration is adding about 2,500 persons per year to the 1.5 city.

1.0 • The majority (54%) of new Immigration immigrants to the city are Emigration Net Flow in the 20 to 44 age group.

0.5

0.0 1996- 1998- 2000- 2002- 2004- 2006- 2008- 2010- 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 July to June

November 14, 2012

9 DETERMINANTS OF POPULATION: INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION

Interprovincial Migration to/from Saskatchewan 1990-91 to 2011-12 estimate • Interprovincial migration 35 has been and probably will thousands continue to be the main 30 determining factor for the overall size of 25 Outgoing Saskatchewan population.

20 • The number of people moving to Saskatchewan 15 Incoming from other provinces grew 10 from 14,000 in 2005-06 to near 20,000 in 2006-07. 5 This led to a positive net interprovincial flow for the 0 first time since the early Net Flow 1980s. (5) • The number of persons (10) leaving Saskatchewan is increasing again after the (15) 1990- 1992- 1994- 1996- 1998- 2000- 2002- 2004- 2006- 2008- 2010- drop in the late 2000s. 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

July to June

November 14, 2012

10 PROVINCE OF ORIGIN FOR INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRANTS

Province of Origin for Interprovincial Migrants Alberta is the destination to Saskatchewan • of choice for people leaving 12,000 Saskatchewan. It number of accounted for 53% of out- in-migrants migrants from the province Alberta 10,000 in 2011-12.

• It is also the most common 8,000 origin among those moving to Saskatchewan. B.C. & 6,000 Manitoba • Ontario has become a more important source in the last Ontario five years. 4,000

2,000 All others

0 2003/2004 2005/2006 2007/2008 2009/2010 2011/2012 July to June:

November 14, 2012

11 INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION TO/FROM REGINA CMA

Net Interprovincial Migration to/from the Regina CMA 1996-97 to 2010-11 estimate • Net interprovincial flow 1.0 was negative for the thousands Regina CMA in the late 1990s and early 2000s. 0.5 This was the main reason why the population was not increasing. 0.0

• Interprovincial flows have -0.5 been positive or neutral in the past five years.

-1.0

-1.5

-2.0

-2.5 1996- 1998- 2000- 2002- 2004- 2006- 2008- 2010- 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

July to June

November 14, 2012

12 INTRAPROVINCIAL MIGRATION TO/FROM REGINA CMA

Net Intraprovincial Migration to/from the Regina CMA 1996-97 to 2010-11 estimate • The flow from other parts 1.2 of Saskatchewan to Regina thousands is still positive but it has slowed in recent years.

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0 1996- 1998- 2000- 2002- 2004- 2006- 2008- 2010- 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

July to June

November 14, 2012

13 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: POPULATION GROWTH IN SASKATCHEWAN

Total Provincial Population • The combination of 1,100 demographic factors has thousands resulted in unprecedented 1,090 population growth in the 1,080 province

1,070 • The population has been 1,060 growing at an average 1,050 annual rate of 1.5% in the past five years. 1,040

1,030 • This is because of a positive 1,020 contribution from all three 1,010 demographic factors: • 5,500 from natural 1,000 growth; 990 • 11,200 from 980 international migration; and 970 • 2,800 from 960 interprovincial 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 est migration. as of July:

November 14, 2012

14 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: POPULATION GROWTH IN THE REGINA CMA

Total Population, Regina CMA • After years of little or no 225 growth, the Regina thousands metropolitan area population has also been 220 growing.

215 • The increase is similar to the one for the province as 210 a whole, that is, an average of 1.5% per year in the past five years. 205

200

195

190

185 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

as of July:

November 14, 2012

15 SUMMARY

• A combination of demographic factors has resulted in unprecedented growth in the Saskatchewan population in the past five years.

• The increase was mainly because of higher levels of international immigration but it was augmented by an increase in the natural growth rate and a reversal in the normal outward flow of people to other provinces.

• The population in the Regina metropolitan area is increasing at about the same rate as the provincial population and for the same reasons.

November 14, 2012

16 INTERPROVINCIAL COMPARISONS

… a comparison of Regina’s demographic trends with those in the other eight metropolitan areas in western Canada INTERPROVINCIAL COMPARISON OF POPULATION GROWTH

Population Growth in Western Metropolitan • Regina is larger than Areas, 2006 to 2011 Kelowna and Abbotsford but smaller than the others western metropolitan areas Victoria 1.2% so it is the third smallest among the eight. Winnipeg 1.3%

Abbotsford 1.4% • Regina’s growth rate in the five years from 2006 to 2011 was similar to increases in Regina 1.8% other western cities.

Kelowna 1.8% • Over the five-year period, grew the fastest Vancouver 2.0% and Victoria the slowest.

Edmonton 2.2%

Calgary 2.4%

Saskatoon 2.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% average annual increase from 2006 to 2011

November 14, 2012

18 INTERPROVINCIAL COMPARISON OF IMMIGRATION

Contribution of International Immigration to • The contribution of Growth in Western Metropolitan Areas, 2011 immigration to the population growth was near the average in other western Kelowna 0.2% cities.

Victoria 0.3% • Winnipeg’s immigration rate Abbotsford 0.8% is half again as high as Regina’s. Saskatoon’s is a bit lower. Edmonton 0.8%

Saskatoon 1.0%

Regina 1.1%

Calgary 1.2%

Vancouver 1.4%

Winnipeg 1.7%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% immigration as % of 2011 population

November 14, 2012

19 INTERPROVINCIAL COMPARISON OF INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRATION

Contribution of Interprovincial Migration to • Winnipeg and Abbotsford Population Growth in Western Metropolitan lost people to other Areas, 2011 provinces in 2011.

Winnipeg -0.4% • Regina and Vancouver had no positive or negative Abbotsford -0.3% contribution from interprovincial migration. Regina 0.0% • Much of the growth in Vancouver 0.0% Victoria and Kelowna came from other provinces – Calgary 0.3% probably retirees.

Edmonton 0.3% • Calgary, Edmonton, and Saskatoon are still attracting Saskatoon 0.4% more people than they are losing. Kelowna 0.4%

Victoria 0.5%

-0.6% -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% interprovincial migration as % of population in 2011

November 14, 2012

20 INTERPROVINCIAL COMPARISON OF INTRAPROVINCIAL IMMIGRATION

Contribution of Intraprovincial Migration to • All western cities except Population Growth in Western Metropolitan Vancouver attract people Areas, 2011 from other parts of their home province. Vancouver -0.1% • This is especially true in Calgary 0.0% Kelowna and Saskatoon. It is less so in Regina, Calgary, Winnipeg 0.1% and Winnipeg.

Abbotsford 0.1%

Regina 0.1%

Edmonton 0.3%

Victoria 0.3%

Saskatoon 0.5%

Kelowna 0.6%

-0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% intraprovincial migration as % of population in 2011

November 14, 2012

21 SUMMARY

• Regina’s demographic statistics are similar to those in the other eight large western cities.

• It is near the middle of the pack in terms of: • population growth rate; • the contribution from international immigration; and • the contribution from intraprovincial migration.

• Although it does better than Winnipeg, Regina does not attract as many interprovincial migrants as most other western cities.

November 14, 2012

22 AGE DISTRIBUTIONS DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: AGE DISTRIBUTION IN SASKATCHEWAN

Saskatchewan Population by Individual Years of Age, July 2012 18 thousands

16

14

12

10

8

6 The "Echo" Generation Y Baby Boomers 12-31 years of age 46-65 years of age 4

Bust 2 Gen X

0 0 4 8 1216202428323640444852566064687276808488

November 14, 2012

24 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: AGE DISTRIBUTION IN THE REGINA CMA

Regina Population by Individual Years of Age, July 2011 4.0 thousands

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

The "Echo" Generation Y Baby Boomers 1.0 11-30 years of age 45-64 years of age

0.5 Bust Gen X

0.0 0 4 8 1216202428323640444852566064687276808488

November 14, 2012

25 COMPARISON OF REGINA AND SASKATCHEWAN

Regina Population Compared with Saskatchewan Population, 2011 2.0% % of population

1.8%

1.6%

1.4% Saskatchewan 1.2%

1.0%

0.8%

0.6%

Regina CMA 0.4%

0.2%

0.0% 0 4 8 1216202428323640444852566064687276808488

November 14, 2012

26 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS: AGE DISTRIBUTIONS

Regina Population by Individual Years of Age, July 2011 4.0 thousands

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

Primary Labour Market Age group 0.5 20 to 64 Years of Age

0.0 0 4 8 1216202428323640444852566064687276808488

November 14, 2012

27 SUMMARY

• Although the oldest are now 65 years of age, the bulk of the “baby boom” generation are in their early fifties.

• Compared with the province as a whole, Regina has a relatively large number of young adults and relatively few children and few seniors.

• The relatively large number of Regina residents in their twenties and early thirties is because of international immigration, the growth in the Aboriginal population, and the aging of the “echo” generation.

November 14, 2012

28