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Opportunistically Upgrading Along the Quality Curve

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Opportunistically Upgrading Along the Quality Curve RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Equity Income Guided Portfolio March 26, 2020 | Change Report Portfolio Advisory Group – Equities What’s inside 2 Portfolio positions Opportunistically upgrading 3 Methodology along the quality curve We are switching out our 2.5% position in H&R REIT in favour of a 2.5% weight in Allied Properties H&R Real Estate Investment Trust We are adding a 2.5% position in Allied (HR.UN) has fallen on hard times, Properties Real Estate Investment pinned between depressed oil prices Trust (AP.UN) to the Portfolio as it and lower customer foot traffic as provides us with exposure to a company individuals practice social distancing with prime office buildings in the to combat the spread of COVID-19. Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver As a result, unit prices have declined metro areas at a rare discount to NAV. by north of 60% year to date. The Many of the company’s underlying geopolitical standoff between Russia properties are one-to-four storeys and Saudi Arabia remains fluid, which high, which should provide a strong unfortunately limits our visibility on pipeline for potential redevelopment as the oil outlook. Per annum, H&R REIT urbanization trends continue to unfold. generates approximately $100 million Allied Properties also has a strong of net rents from The Bow office balance sheet with a debt-to-enterprise building in Calgary, which is leased value of 32%, amongst the lowest to a single tenant (Ovintiv, OVV), within RBC Capital Markets’ Real Estate and roughly $205 million of net rents coverage universe. Furthermore, only via retail. These two components in 8% of Allied Properties’ NOI derives aggregate represent roughly 39% of from retail, while roughly 70% of NOI H&R REIT’s total net operating income comes from office tenants as of Q4 (NOI). While the units are currently 2019. We recognize that there are some trading at about a 70% discount to concerns with respect to occupancy net asset value (NAV), we believe during an economic downturn, but we opportunistically upgrading along find comfort in the fact that occupancy For an overview of the Portfolio, the quality curve continues to make is around 94% and the remaining please click here. sense in the face of slowing economic average lease term is about six years. Click here for authors’ contact growth, and we are therefore removing Lastly, the units are yielding 4.6% information. the position in H&R REIT from the (approximately 81% payout based on All values in Canadian dollars and Portfolio. RBC Capital Markets’ 2020 estimates), priced as of Mar 24, 2020, market close, unless otherwise noted. which we view as attractive for a high- Produced: Mar 25, 2020 17:10ET quality Real Estate holding. Disseminated: Mar 26, 2020 07:00ET For required disclosures, see page 4. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S. 2 | Equity Income Guided Portfolio Price to Forecasted Forecast Forecast Market Price 52-wk EPS / AFFO / CFPS earnings/AFFO/CFPS Div payout ratio growth in dividend Company name Weight cap (B) 3/24/20 range ($) 2019A 2020E 2021E 2019A 2020E 2021E yield 2019A 2020E 2021E EPS/AFFO growth rate or CFPS to 2021 Interest sensitive CM Canadian Imp. Bank of Commerce 2.5% $34 $75.10 116 - 68 11.92 9.34 11.15 6.3x 8.0x 6.7x 7.8% 47% 62% 53% -6% 2% BMO Bank of Montreal 2.5% $42 $64.10 107 - 56 9.43 7.34 9.53 6.8x 8.7x 6.7x 6.6% 43% 58% 46% 1% 4% BNS Bank of Nova Scotia 2.5% $64 $52.26 77 - 46 7.14 5.00 6.98 7.3x 10.5x 7.5x 6.9% 49% 72% 52% -2% 1% NA National Bank 5.0% $16 $46.23 75 - 39 6.36 5.29 6.13 7.3x 8.7x 7.5x 6.1% 42% 54% 49% -4% 6% RY Royal Bank of Canada 5.0% $118 $81.75 110 - 72 NA NA NA NA NA NA 5.3% NA NA NA NA NA TD TD Bank 2.5% $103 $55.89 78 - 49 6.69 4.96 6.13 8.4x 11.3x 9.1x 5.7% 43% 63% 54% -8% 4% MFC Manulife 5.0% $31 $15.58 28 - 13 2.97 3.04 3.41 5.2x 5.1x 4.6x 7.2% 34% 37% 36% 15% 9% IFC Intact Financial 2.5% $17 $115.67 158 - 105 6.16 7.65 8.90 18.8x 15.1x 13.0x 2.9% 49% 43% 40% 44% 8% TRI Thomson Reuters ^ 2.5% $29 $56.80 83 - 52 0.15 2.12 2.26 NMF 26.8x 25.1x 2.5% NMF 73% 74% NMF 16% AP.UN Allied Properties REIT * 2.5% $4 $35.65 60 - 31 1.93 2.03 2.13 18.5x 17.6x 16.7x 4.6% 83% 81% 77% 10% 0% FCR.UN First Capital Realty * 2.5% $3 $11.93 23 - 11 1.09 1.04 1.07 10.9x 11.5x 11.1x 7.2% 79% 83% 80% -2% 0% BCE BCE 5.0% $46 $50.85 65 - 46 3.50 3.58 3.73 14.5x 14.2x 13.6x 6.5% 91% 93% 93% 7% 4% T TELUS 5.0% $26 $20.48 28 19 1.44 1.57 1.74 14.3x 13.0x 11.8x 5.7% 78% 77% 74% 21% 11% BIP Brookfield Infr. Partners ^ 2.5% $10 $33.05 56 26 3.40 3.67 4.04 9.7x 9.0x 8.2x 6.5% 59% 59% 57% 19% 7% FTS Fortis 5.0% $21 $45.90 59 - 42 2.55 2.67 2.85 18.0x 17.2x 16.1x 4.2% 71% 72% 71% 12% 6% H Hydro One 2.5% $14 $23.11 30 - 20 1.54 1.40 1.48 15.0x 16.5x 15.6x 4.2% 63% 72% 72% -4% 10% CU Canadian Utilities 2.5% $6 $27.30 43 25 2.23 2.12 2.17 12.2x 12.9x 12.6x 6.4% 76% 82% 82% -3% 3% Consumer MRU Metro 2.5% $14 $55.14 59 - 48 2.84 3.10 3.44 19.4x 17.8x 16.0x 1.6% 27% 29% 28% 21% 9% QSR Restaurant Brands **^ 5.0% $12 $38.63 79 - 25 2.72 2.99 3.30 14.2x 12.9x 11.7x 4.7% 73% 70% 69% 21% 27% MGA Magna International ^ 2.5% $9 $29.14 57 - 23 6.05 6.61 7.66 4.8x 4.4x 3.8x 5.0% 24% 24% 23% 27% 21% Industrial CNR Canadian Nat. Railway 5.0% $76 $108.80 128 - 92 5.80 6.22 6.96 18.8x 17.5x 15.6x 2.1% 37% 37% 36% 20% 10% Resources SU Suncor Energy *** 5.0% $27 $17.42 46 - 14 6.93 7.60 8.74 2.5x 2.3x 2.0x 10.7% 24% 25% 23% 26% 8% CNQ Canadian Natural Resources *** 2.5% $16 $13.69 43 - 10 8.61 8.66 9.37 1.6x 1.6x 1.5x 12.4% 17% 19% 20% 9% 9% ENB Enbridge * 5.0% $80 $37.39 57 - 33 4.57 4.59 4.89 8.2x 8.1x 7.6x 8.7% 65% 71% 70% 7% 5% TRP TC Energy 5.0% $52 $55.62 77 - 47 4.14 4.18 4.24 13.4x 13.3x 13.1x 5.8% 72% 78% 84% 2% 10% PPL Pembina Pipeline * 5.0% $16 $28.52 54 - 15 4.36 4.31 4.45 6.5x 6.6x 6.4x 8.8% 55% 58% 59% 2% 5% NTR Nutrien ^ 5.0% $17 $28.66 55 - 24 2.15 1.74 2.12 13.3x 16.5x 13.5x 6.3% 82% 103% 85% -1% 0% Source - RBC Capital Markets estimates, Bloomberg, and Thomson Reuters ^ In U.S. dollars * Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) instead of earnings per share (EPS) ** Bloomberg estimates *** Cash flow per share (CFPS) Payout ratios based on earnings per share, except as noted above. Dividend growth rate is based on RBC Capital Markets’ or Bloomberg’s 2021 forecast dividend compared to the current annualized dividend. Growth in EPS/AFFO/CFPS are based on the RBC Capital Markets’ 2021 forecast compared to the current annualized dividend. In all jurisdictions where RBC Capital Markets conducts business, we do not offer investment advice on Royal Bank of Canada. Certain regulations prohibit member firms from soliciting orders and offering investment advice or opinions on their own stock. References to Royal Bank are for informational purposes only and not intended as a direct or implied recommendation for investing in Royal Bank and all related securities. March 26, 2020 | RBC Wealth Management 3 | Equity Income Guided Portfolio Methodology The objective of the Equity Income Guided Portfolio (EIGP) is to provide investors with an attractive rate of current income with the potential for growing cash flow plus long-term capital appreciation by investing in a diversified Portfolio of higher-yielding Canadian securities, such as common stocks, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), and income trusts that trade on the S&P/ TSX Composite Index. This Portfolio consists of approximately 20–30 stocks and may be appropriate for investors who have a moderate risk tolerance in relation to an equity investment. Because of its focus on income and income growth, this Portfolio would ordinarily exhibit greater defensive characteristics relative to the broad equity market during bear markets and may underperform during bull markets. The top-down strategy process employed by RBC Capital Markets plays a different role in the EIGP process than with our other Guided Portfolios.
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