WPA Intelligence

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: CHRIS WILSON

SUBJECT: NEWSOM’S RECALL IS ABOUT NEWSOM, NOT TRUMP

DATE: FEBRUARY 15, 2021

Governor Newsom and his political advisors have called the recall effort “a misguided effort by supporters of former President Donald Trump”1 only in an attempt to make this effort about anything but his failure of leadership throughout the Covid-19 pandemic.

CALIFORNIA WOULD RECALL NEWSOM IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY

A new poll conducted by WPA Intelligence found that if the Overall GOP NPP/Other DEM election were held today, a plurality Yes, Recall 47% 80% 53% 26% of voters (47%) would vote to recall No, Don’t 43% 15% 35% 64% Newsom. Furthermore, an 18-point Recall majority of NPP/Other voters would Undecided 10% 5% 13% 10% recall Newsom.

NEWSOM MUST MAKE THE RECALL ABOUT TRUMP

Newsom has attempted to make this recall about Donald Trump for Overall GOP NPP/Other DEM a reason -- his polling shows what More Likely 31% 67% 25% 16% this survey does-- if a leading Less Likely candidate to replace Newsom was 52% 12% 53% 73% No a former Trump official, a majority 17% 20% 22% 12% of voters would be less likely to Difference vote to recall and remove Newsom. For Newsom to win, he has to make the election about Donald Trump. Regardless of your response earlier, if the recall election were being held today and a leading candidate to replace Newsom was a former Trump Administration official who was supported by Donald Trump, would you be more or less likely to vote to recall and remove Gavin Newsom?

1 https://ktla.com/news/california/california-republican-party-gives-125000-to-newsom-recall-effort/

KEVIN FAULCONER IS THE BEST CANDIDATE TO REPLACE NEWSOM

In a head-to-head matchup, former Overall GOP NPP/Other DEM San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer Faulconer 31% 62% 39% 10% leads Antonio Villaraigosa by three- Villaraigosa points. 28% 8% 19% 44% Undecided 41% 30% 42% 46% Among Republicans, Faulconer leads 62-8%. Among NPP/Other, Faulconer leads 39-19%.

RIC GRENELL GIVES VILLARAIGOSA MORE STRENGTH AND MAKES THE EFFORT FUTILE

After informing respondents that a Overall GOP NPP/Other DEM leading candidate could be a Faulconer 16% 26% 20% 8% former Trump official, Villaraigosa Villaraigosa 35% 11% 26% 54% moves from trailing by three to leading. The remaining committed Cox 7% 15% 7% 3% vote (32%) is split between the Grenell 9% 22% 9% 3% three Republicans; with Grenell and Undecided 32% 26% 37% 33% Cox in single digits. Moreover, Villaraigosa’s support among NPP/Other’s increases seven-points from 19% to 26%. METHODLOGY

WPA Intelligence conducted a study of likely recall voters in California.

WPA selected a random sample of registered voters from the California voter file using Registration-Based Sampling (RBS). The sample for this survey was stratified based on geography, age, gender, partisanship, and ethnicity. This methodology allows us to avoid post-survey “weighting” which can reduce the reliability of survey results.

A hybrid methodology was deployed where 50% of the interviews were conducted via text (SMS) to cell phones and 50% were conducted via Interactive Voice Response (IVR). Respondents were contacted from February 12-14, 2021. The study has a sample size of n=645 likely recall voters with a margin of error of ±3.9%.

ABOUT WPA INTELLIGENCE

Since 1998, WPA Intelligence has been a leading provider of survey research, predictive analytics and technology for corporations, educational institutions, public affairs programs, non-profits, and campaigns from President to Governor, U.S. Congress, and local elections in all 50 states and multiple foreign countries. In the 2017-2018 and 2019-2020 cycles, WPAi’s polling and analytics plotted the course for multiple winning Senate, Governor, and House campaigns.

WPAi’s data and analytics continue to lead the industry. In the 2016 Republican Primary for President, arguably the most unprecedented presidential contest by way of turnout and political environment volatility, WPAi accurately projected turnout and the ballot score in 42 states using predictive analytics. In 2018, our predictive analytics tools were a key element of the RNC Voter Scores program and predicted the margins in numerous races with unmatched accuracy. Again in 2020, WPAi had unparalleled accuracy helping propel several candidates to victory in U.S. House and Senate elections.

WPAi has been nationally recognized for providing cutting-edge intelligence to help our clients win. The American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) awarded WPAi “Pollies” for our Predictive Analytics and Adaptive Sampling techniques and our groundbreaking, data-focused social media application “Leonardo.” For our work in 2018, WPAi received “Reed Awards” for Best use of Data Analytics/Machine Learning, Best Use of Online Targeting for a Gubernatorial Campaign, Best New Research Technique, and Best Application of AI Technology to Optimize Targeting.

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