ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING
AGENDA FOR THE FUTURE
Committee on Environment and Natural Resources Subcommittee on Ecological Systems
Ecological Forecasting: Agenda for the Future
It Begins with a Need The stakes in preserving our ecosystems ecosystems will respond to natural and – and the fragile webs that bind them – are human stresses. enormous. Whether we realize it or not, the Today, at the beginning of the 21st health of the U.S. economy is inextricably century, the science community is poised to linked to the health of our nation’s ecosys- capitalize on research opportunities and tems, and the goods and services those thereby enhance the way we anticipate and ecosystems deliver to our economy. manage ecosystem change. Recent techno- Consider a small logical innovations in Forecasting the effects sampling of the goods. Ecological forecasts predict computer science and of environmental Agricultural ecosystems quantitative analysis, change on agricul- provide over $200 billion the effects of biological, nanotechnology, tural ecosystems annually. Marine ecosys- chemical, physical, and information and supports this vitally tems provide annually sensing technologies, important industry $27 billion in fisheries human-induced changes genomics, systematic and ensures the alone. And ecosystems do on ecosystems and their biology, and ecological health and well- more than furnish food theory make it possible being of U.S. citizens and fiber. Their “services” components. to consider ecological and those of many include providing clean forecasts that were not nations around the air and water, detoxifying and decomposing feasible only a few years ago. world. wastes, pollinating crops and natural vegeta- tion, and providing drought and flood What is Ecological Forecasting? control and recreational opportunities. To Ecological forecasts predict the effects of sustain the delivery of these goods and biological, chemical, physical, and human- services, we need to anticipate how induced changes on ecosystems and their
Forecasting the effects of stress on natural ecosystems helps sustain the aesthetic and economic vitality of U.S. recreation and tourism industries.
1 components. These forecasts do not guarantee ecosystem states. what is to come; instead, they offer scientifically Forecasting large-scale, long-term ecosystem sound estimations of what is likely to occur. changes is more akin to macroeconomic fore- Such forecasts answer “What will happen casts that build from expert judgment, analysis, if ...” questions tied to these changes. Short-term and assessment, in addition to numerical forecasts, such as predicting land-fall of toxic simulation and prediction. Forecasts of such algal blooms, are similar to those done for broad-based, long-term effects are particularly weather and hurricane important because To sustain our prediction. However, some of the most valuable ecosystem many of these short- severe and long-lasting term events have both effects on ecosystems goods and services, immediate and long- may result from we have to term ecological chronic influences that impacts. For example, are subtle over short understand how a catastrophic insect time frames. ecosystems function infestation or wildfire could allow major Forecasting the impacts of and interact and, ecosystem shifts more catastrophic events, like most importantly, readily than would wildfire, drought, and otherwise occur. flood, helps protect forecast how they Similarly, major flood- ecosystems, especially those will be affected by induced nutrient influx to freshwater or coastal at risk, so we can ensure long-term delivery of goods systems could impose longer-term changes in and services, decrease short-term negative impacts, and change. productivity or shifts to new minimize harm to people and the economy.
These five key causes of ecological change play out and interact on a wide range of time and space scales. Even this oversimplified graph suggests that one of the greatest forecast challenges will be to predict the cumulative impacts of multiple stresses.
2 What are the Benefits reaching implications of these shifts on ecosys- of Ecological Forecasts? tems, and their impacts on society, are needed. Ecological forecasts help resource managers Current needs include forecasts of changes in (such as superintendents of national parks) the health and productivity of the natural and better understand their options and the likely managed ecosystems that are critical in provid- effects of their decisions. They help managers ing food and fiber to the U.S. economy — anticipate the consequences of their actions. especially agricultural, forest, and rangeland Ecological forecasts help focus information ecosystems. exchange at the science/policy interface. Focus- ing discussions around the need for and confi- Pollution – Concerns about the dence in forecasts, helps identify the data, presence of potentially harmful information, and predictions with the most chemicals and excess nutrients in significant economic, environmental, and policy the environment remain a top implications. concern. Current needs include Developing and testing ecological forecasts forecasts of the effects of air pollu- highlight uncertainties and weaknesses, and tion and land-based activities (for thereby help science managers set research, example, agricultural production, monitoring, modeling, and assessment priorities. forest harvest) on terrestrial, fresh- Land and resource managers make water, and marine ecosystems. crucial decisions that affect the well- being of ecosystems for decades to The Need for Ecological Forecasts Invasive Species – Invasive species come. Good forecasts of the The five causes of ecosystem change are species that are introduced consequences of those decisions will provide a framework for ecological forecasting intentionally or unintentionally lead to better-informed decisions. needs. from other areas, and are capable of spreading rapidly and replacing Extreme Natural Events – Such events native species. These invaders exist include fire, floods, droughts, hurricanes, in nearly all U.S. ecosystems and windstorms, and some toxic algal blooms. pose potential threats to the integ- While extreme natural events are largely rity of our nation’s landscapes, outside the control of natural resource manag- biodiversity, and ecosystems and ers, the ability to predict their occurrence and annually cost billions of dollars to ecosystem effects, as well as their interactions control. Current needs include with other causes of change, are important for forecasts of the introduction, planning management and response activities spread, and ecological effects of to minimize damage and enhance ecosystem potential and already-introduced resilience. species. Forecasts of ecosystem impacts of Climate Change – As certainty about the Interactive Effects – Most ecosys- natural variability and human likelihood and magnitude of climate changes tems throughout the United States interactions will help sustain increases, the need for resource managers and are subject to multiple causes of enjoyment of our healthy natural policy makers to plan to minimize impacts on ecological change. For example, an ecosystems. species, ecosystems, and ecological goods and extreme natural event (perhaps fire) services becomes more urgent. Current needs may open the door for new species invasions, include forecasts of the interaction of climate and the success of that invader may be enhanced change and variability with other stresses on by altered climate (new precipitation and ecological goods and services, particularly the temperature patterns), the extent to which the distribution of species and the availability of land and related resources are used, and the clean water. chemical condition of the environment being invaded (pollution). Building the ability to Land and Resource Use – Ecosystem changes forecast the cumulative effects of these multiple take place in the context of ongoing changes stresses is one of ecology’s most significant in land and resource use. Forecasts of the far- challenges. 3 Examples of Hypoxia – a massive 15,000 km2 area of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) – lethal Ecological depleted oxygen – occurs off the coast of growths of algae – restrict harvests of fish, Forecasts Louisiana each year. This phenomenon is divert public funds to health and serious because most aquatic species cannot environmental monitoring programs, depress survive at low oxygen levels and it occurs in recreational and tourist industries, and can the middle of some of the Nation’s most cause illness and even death in those who valued fisheries. A broad-scale integrated consume products from the sea. While they assessment of the causes and consequences can occur naturally, HABs are found in every
R. Stumpf, NOAA
Combining satellite imagery of surface algae with information on ocean circulation and atmospheric conditions enables forecasts of V. Bierman, Limno Tech, Inc. This forecast of expected Gulf oxygen increases bloom movement off Florida’s west coast. State in response to nitrogen load reductions was a officials use these forecasts to monitor the key component for reaching the Federal/State/ bloom and warn the public. Tribal agreement to reduce nitrogen loads coastal state and they appear to be from the Mississippi River Basin. increasing in frequency, duration, and of that hypoxic zone concluded that severity. Forecasting HAB distribution and excess nitrogen from the Mississippi movements helps reduce these impacts by River basin was the dominant cause. identifying where blooms are and allows A key challenge then was to determine early warning of shellfish and beach what load reduction was needed to closures. Currently, we can predict where significantly raise oxygen levels. an HAB may come ashore in Florida once it has started, but further research is needed to predict when and where a bloom will develop.
4 Hantaviruses – diseases carried by rodents, Asian Longhorned Beetle – an invasive especially the deer mouse – infect humans species – poses a serious threat to hardwood through exposure to rodent droppings. trees in the United States. The beetle feeds These viruses are potentially deadly, deep within the tree, blocking water and sap requiring immediate medical care once movement, and eventually kills the tree. symptoms appear. Until recently, diseases Models that combine information on the caused by hantaviruses were thought to be basic biology and ecology of a species with restricted to Europe and Asia. But outbreaks patterns of human activities that influence
“One of the most pressing challenges that the United States— and indeed, the world—will face in the next few decades is how to alleviate the growing stress that human activities are placing on the environment. The consequences are just Rodents such as the deer mouse can carry too great to ignore... hantaviruses. Forecasting increases in their Yet, there is reason to abundance can aid in warnings about spread have hope for the of the virus. future. Advances in computing power and in the United States in 1993 proved molecular biology are otherwise. An understanding of the among the tremendous increases in scientific relationship between climate change, capability that are ecology, and natural pathogens enabled the helping researchers development of predictive models for If not controlled, the Asian longhorned beetle gain a better human infection and allowed forecasts of could become a major pest and have a understanding of these significant impact on the lumber, maple problems.” human risk. Improved understanding of syrup, nursery, commercial fruit, and tourism such factors developed during and after the industries. —Thomas Graedel 1993 outbreak allowed researchers to Yale University dispersal, such as urban and suburban land accurately predict the hantavirus outbreak in use and forest management practices, can be the Southwest in 1997. used to forecast likely patterns of establishment and spread.
5 New Era Possible Through at unprecedented scales. At the same time, New Science and Technology networks of data centers will assemble, archive, Today, sophisticated ecological forecasting is and distribute the enormous amounts of data. a tantalizing possibility. But while there has been Currently, robotic mass storage systems are some progress, the promise of this maturing managing hundreds of terabytes of information field lies on the horizon. (a byte is the memory space needed to store 1 More to the point, a variety of recent character; a terabyte is 1 trillion bytes). But over developments have converged to offer us an the next decade, thousands of times that amount historic opportunity to accelerate progress. will be collected and made available to individu- Technological advances, particularly in com- als working around the world. puter science, telecommunications, remote At smaller scales, another recent innovation sensing, genomics, ecological theory, and holds great promise. “Smart dust” is composed of tiny computerized communicating sensors. These sensors, the size of particles of dust, can be scattered throughout the environment to send back information from their movements. For example, they are light enough that air currents can keep them aloft for lengthy periods of time. Applications already envisioned include checking the weather inside storms, warning The mass storage New data from gene/ Smart dust, packing jetliners of air turbulence, and detecting chemi- capabilities these systems protein chips will the power of a PC into cal weapons. Future “smart dust” research is embody will prove provide invaluable a speck of “dust,” will aimed at imbuing significantly smaller particles invaluable in providing information for allow scientists to with even greater communications capabilities access to data needed to building biological monitor environmental and using these tiny sensors to communicate the drive and test ecological complexity into change at very small dynamics of some of the smallest components of forecasts. ecological forecasts. scales. ecosystems. At even smaller biological scales, new The ecological nanotechnology, offer us the very real chance to techniques from genetics research will help science community bring ecological forecasting to new levels. The unravel complex biological and ecological is entering a new ecological science community is entering a new processes. A genome is the complete comple- era in which era in which forecasts of ecological change can ment of genes in an organism – its genetic become commonplace if we bring to bear the instructions or blueprint for that species. Today forecasts of new tools, monitoring and observing systems, we have identified and placed in order all the ecological change and increased understanding available today and genes from several model organisms and have a can become on the horizon. rough draft of the human genome. Newly commonplace if we At the largest scales, for example, over the developed gene/protein chips (an innovation bring to bear the next 15 years, a series of Earth-observing from biotechnology and nanotechnology) offer new tools, satellites will collect data on an unprecedented unprecedented opportunities to measure, scale via a series of satellites and field experi- monitor, and understand the complex structures monitoring and ments. Data and information from these and and activities of living systems. This technology observing systems, other field experiments and observing systems, lets researchers monitor genetic diversity and and increased designed to develop and test relationships simultaneous interactions among thousands of understanding between satellite-based observations and Earth genes, and discover which genes are affected by available today processes, will make possible ecosystem analyses various environmental changes. and on the horizon.
6 Framing the Science Agenda diversity in determining ecosystem resilience and While innovative technologies will in quantifying ecological scale interactions. We strengthen our ability to observe and track need to improve ways of modeling movement of ecological change, advancements in nutrients, carbon, water, and other substances understanding the fundamental processes through biota, soil, sediment, water, and air, and of underlying those changes are also critical. In estimating how ecosystems respond to addition to gathering new data and combinations of stresses at local and regional scales. understanding ecological processes, techniques are also being developed for including those data Monitor Ecosystem Status and Trends, and and processes in models and for analysis of Make Complex Data Available. Ecological forecast uncertainty. Much of this is on the forecasts cannot be produced without reliable horizon in framing a science agenda for information about the current and historical advancing ecological forecasts. This agenda is condition of rooted in three themes: ecosystems. Likewise, the success of Understand Ecosystem Composition, decisions made in Structure, and Functioning. A new agenda is response to specific needed to respond to relevant recommendations forecasts cannot be in recent reports of the National Academy of evaluated without Sciences, the President’s Committee of Advisors ongoing monitoring on Science and Technology (PCAST), and the of change. Rapid National Biological Information Infrastructure National Science Board. These include studies to advances in remote improve understanding of the role of biological sensing and in situ sensing (“in the actual place”; PCAST spoke of the contrasted with “remote”) offer new need to support opportunities to provide these data. However, development of a new observation, modeling, and data National Biological management tools are needed to deal with Information gathering, integrating, and interpreting complex Infrastructure, a Web- biological and chemical data, and making them based system for available. accessing and integrating biodiversity Develop and Improve Prediction and and ecosystem Interpretation Tools. A central challenge for information. Such a ecological forecasting is to develop advanced system will be essential tools for translating the rapidly increasing for ecological forecasts. ecological knowledge base into information needed by decision makers. The combination of complex interactions among a large number of components with the variable nature of ecosystems and their driving forces, makes the development of such tools a significant challenge.
A new generation of Earth-observing satellites has ushered in the next generation of remote sensing technologies, offering significantly greater coverage, resolution, and range of measurement abilities than ever before. These technologies are opening new ecological observation windows – and new ecological forecasting possibilities. 7 Collaboration is the Key The basis of scientific predictions is good Accomplishing this will be a challenge, but it data and information and a solid understand- is not beyond our reach. It will unfold over time ing of natural processes. Strong collaboration as its assumptions and ideas are tested. With among Federal agencies, with the academic that in mind, our agenda is purposeful — but community, and with the private sector, is flexible. We invite you to help us shape it. essential for ensuring development of ecological forecasting capabilities. Now, at the For More Information beginning of the For more information and a copy of the 21st century, we interagency concept plan, you can contact: are poised to
Mary Clutter, Co-Chair Jerry Elwood John Schnase National Science Foundation Department of Energy National Aeronautics and Space Administration Donald Scavia, Co-Chair Dennis Fenn National Oceanic and U.S. Geological Survey Elizabeth Smith Atmospheric Administration Environmental Protection William Gregg Agency Michael Ruggiero, Executive U.S. Geological Survey Secretary William Sommers U.S. Geological Survey Leonard Hirsch USDA/Forest Service Smithsonian Institution Jeffrey Amthor Timothy Strickland Department of Energy Thomas Muir USDA/Agricultural U.S. Geological Survey Research Service Dale Bucks USDA/Agricultural Research Lee Mulkey Gilman Veith Service Environmental Protection Environmental Protection Agency Agency Gladys Cotter U.S. Geological Survey Michael O’Neill Jack Waide USDA/Cooperative USDA/Forest Service Maurice Crawford Research, Extension, and National Oceanic and Education Service Diane Wickland Atmospheric Administration National Aeronautics and James Reaves Space Administration James Edwards USDA/Forest Service National Science Foundation 8