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Rebuilding for a Resilient Recovery Planning in California’S Wildland Urban Interface

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Rebuilding for a Resilient Recovery Planning in California’S Wildland Urban Interface Rebuilding for a Resilient Recovery Planning in California’s Wildland Urban Interface JUNE 2021 PRODUCED BY Next 10 F. Noel Perry Colleen Kredell Marcia E. Perry Stephanie Leonard PREPARED BY UC Berkeley Center for Community Innovation Karen Chapple Rob Olshansky Molly Harris Clay Kerchof NEXT 10 is an independent nonpartisan Jessica Finkel organization that educates, engages and Dori Ganetsos empowers Californians to improve the Matt Gutierrez state’s future. Hanah Goldov Laurel Mathews Next 10 is focused on innovation and the intersection between Ben Ulrey the economy, the environment, and quality of life issues for Lauren Willey all Californians. We provide critical data to help inform the state’s efforts to grow the economy and reduce greenhouse Sadie Wilson gas emissions. Next 10 was founded in 2003 by businessman and philanthropist F. Noel Perry. DESIGN BY José Fernandez A PROJECT OF ONLINE AT www.next10.org NEXT 10 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS | III Acknowledgements The report authors would like to thank the following individuals and organizations for their time and willingness to share information that helped shape this report: Aleksandra Djurasovic David Guhin Karin Demarest California Department of Housing & City of Santa Rosa Community Foundation Sonoma Community Development County Edith Hannigan Alexander Ramiller California Board of Forestry and Kate Gordon UC Berkeley (Doctoral Student) Fire Protection Governor’s Office of Planning and Allison Brooks Elaine Himelfarb Research Bay Area Regional Collaborative Central Ventura County Fire Safe Kate Scowsmith Amy Bach Council Camp Fire Collaborative United Policyholders Elizabeth O’Donoghue Katie Simmons Andrea Howard The Nature Conservancy Town of Paradise Placeworks Erik de Kok Kelan Stoy Arthur Wylene California Governor’s Office of Plan- UrbanFootprint Rural County Representatives of ning and Research California Kim DuFour Erin Riches North Valley Community Foundation Belén Lopez-Grady California State Senate Housing North Bay Organizing Project Committee Kristi Sweeney Town of Paradise Ben Metcalf Jacque Chase Terner Center for Housing Chico State University Laura Tam Innovation Jason Hercules Resources Legacy Fund Cara Lacey UrbanFootprint Laurie Johnson The Nature Conservancy Jennielynn Holmes California Earthquake Authority Carmen Tubbesing Catholic Charities Liz Koslov UC Berkeley (Postdoctoral Researcher) Jennifer Gray Thompson UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs Rebuild NorthBay Foundation Carrie Simmons Luke Zhang Association of Bay Area Jesús Guzmán UC Berkeley (Undergraduate Re- Governments (ABAG) Generation Housing searcher) Charles Brooks Jim Friedman Mark Lorenzen Rebuild Paradise Foundation City of Ventura Venture County Fire Department Clare Hartman JoAnn Scordino Maziar Movassaghi California Department of Housing & City of Santa Rosa FEMA Region IX Community Development Clay Downing Johnny Mojica Megan Kurtz Ventura County Earth Economics California State University, Chico Chris Copeland Jovanni Tricerri Michael Germeraad North Valley Community Foundation North Valley Community Foundation Association of Bay Area Govern- ments (ABAG) Dan Breedon Juliette Finzi Hart Butte County California Governor’s Office of Plan- Michael Gollner ning and Research UC Berkeley Fire Research Lab Dan Efseaff Town of Paradise Kai Luoma Michelle Whitman Ventura County Local Agency For- Renewal Enterprise District David Edelson mation Commission The Nature Conservancy Nick Branch UrbanFootprint NEXT 10 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS | IV Nuin-Tara Key Renée Schomp Steve Lucas California Governor’s Office of Plan- Napa Sonoma ADU Butte County Local Agency Forma- ning and Research tion Commission Rick Pruetz Pamela Miller Smart Preservation Susan Hartman California Association of Local Town of Paradise Agency Formation Commissions Ryan Silber California Strategic Growth Council Tracy Davis Patrick Maynard Camp Fire Collaborative Ventura County Office of Emergency Sarah Cardona Services Greenbelt Alliance Tracy Rhine Peter Hansen Rural County Representatives of Sarah Newkirk California California State University, Chico The Nature Conservancy Rex Frazier Van Butsic Seana O’Shaughnessy UC Berkeley Land Use and Conser- Personal Insurance Federation of Community Housing Improvement vation Lab California Program Rachel Schten Victoria LaMar-Haas Seren Taylor California Governor’s Office of UC Berkeley (Undergraduate Re- Personal Insurance Federation of Emergency Services searcher) California NEXT 10 TaBLE OF CONTENTS | V Table of Contents PART I PART II Executive Summary 1 Full Case Studies: 31 Santa Rosa, Paradise, and Ventura Introduction 5 Santa Rosa 32 Background 7 Paradise 41 Ventura 51 Understanding Fire Impacts Across 13 California’s Diverse Landscape: The Cases Endnotes 61 of Santa Rosa, Paradise, and Ventura Context 14 Scenario Analysis 18 Case Study Conclusions 21 California’s Fiscal Exposure to Wildfires 21 Policy Recommendations for a Resilient 24 Wildland Urban Interface Conclusion 30 NEXT 10 | 1 Executive Summary Climate change and sprawl in the wildland urban interface are driving up both the economic and human cost of wildfires in California. Successive wildfire disasters strengthen the case for land use conservation and urban infill strategies that reduce disaster risk, promote housing supply, and mitigate climate change impacts. NEXT 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | 2 Wildfires in California are increasing in frequency and units (ADUs) to areas not in the WUI, and embracing intensity. Accelerating climate change, changing land use manufactured housing as an affordable-by-design approach. patterns, and reduced forest management practices are The social, economic, and environmental impacts inform major contributing factors. In 2020, California experienced policy recommendations. five of the six largest wildfires in recorded history. Wildfire proliferation threatens the lives and homes of more than Each case study community explores three one quarter of the state’s population; approximately 11.2 rebuilding scenarios: million people, in 4.5 million homes, are at-risk in the 1. (Re)Building as Usual, in which existing recovery wildland-urban interface (WUI).1,2 plans and historical growth trends guide anticipat- Rather than redirecting development away from high ed development patterns; fire risk areas in the WUI, state and local policies primarily 2. Managed Retreat & Urban Density, in which di- emphasize retrofitting existing homes, imposing stricter saster survivors choose or are incentivized to move building codes and site design standards for new homes, to lower risk locations, while land use planning and and ensuring that jurisdictions have sufficient evacuation incentives promote infill development in existing routes and shelter-in-place plans in case of an emergency. urban nodes; and Building on prior land use research addressing infill development, sprawl management, and land conservation, 3. Resilience Nodes, in which communities rebuild some this report suggests that continued development in the housing in high-risk areas but incorporate robust WUI will make California’s already constricted supply of wildfire mitigation features, including development housing more vulnerable, will undermine state efforts to clusters surrounded by defensible space curb carbon emissions, and will further degrade the state’s The analysis shows that there are more resilient paths to wildland habitats. The growing risk of wildfires also creates recovery than rebuilding as usual. Communities selecting fiscal challenges for state and local governments, given either Managed Retreat or Resilience Nodes will be able the high cost of post-disaster recovery. to reduce fire risk for their residents, while also meeting To inform state policymakers, this report studies three housing and climate goals. Managed Retreat provides communities recently affected by fires. The research the biggest impact in terms of safety and climate, but combines a scenario exercise, secondary data analysis, and presents new potential displacement risks. Resilience interviews to understand the impacts and possible recovery Nodes offers the most potential for economic growth, trajectories of the Tubbs Fire (2017), Thomas Fire (2017), with fewer negative social equity impacts, but less of and Camp Fire (2018) on the communities of Santa Rosa, a guarantee in terms of future fire risk. If the State of Ventura, and Paradise, respectively. By analyzing three case California wishes to address its dual climate and housing study communities with different physical and socioeco- crises, it will need to develop the right set of carrots and nomic characteristics, the policy recommendations reconcile sticks to persuade jurisdictions not to simply pursue the a variety of goals, including reducing wildfire risk, increas- greatest economic return. ing housing supply and resilience, and mitigating climate change, that are applicable across the state. Key findings from the case study analysis Using a scenario planning approach, this report include: summarizes the impacts of different post-fire land use • Urban growth boundaries and conservation easements patterns on a jurisdiction’s housing supply, fire risk, protect environmentally valuable natural and working affordability, and climate metrics such as greenhouse gas lands while also reducing wildfire disaster costs; (GHG) emissions, residential energy use, and vehicle miles • Infill development has fewer GHG emissions, relative to traveled (VMT). Scenarios at the city and regional level existing patterns
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