New York Jets
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New York Jets hen Rex Ryan stepped up to the podium on De- son, the Colts dominated the Jets in the first half of W cember 20 and conceded the Jets’ chances of their Week 16 encounter; the 9-3 score belied the fact making the playoffs, it appeared that that he and his that the Colts had seen wide-open receivers drop two team had been victimized by bad luck. The Jets had touchdown passes. The Jets returned the second half just lost a 10-7 heartbreaker to the Falcons, thanks kickoff for a touchdown, giving them a shock lead, but to three failed field after the Colts equal- goals and three picks ized, the starters came from rookie quarter- JETS SUMMARY out. Indy capitulated, back Mark Sanchez. It and the Jets took advan- 2009 Record: 9-7 marked their fifth loss tage of Curtis Painter to in games decided by Pythagorean Wins: 11.4 (6th) earn the win. less than a touchdown. DVOA: 16.9% (9th) A week later, the Jets A team with the vaunted and Bengals went into combination required to Offense: -9.0% (22nd) their flexed Sunday win close, meaningful Defense: -23.4% (1st) night matchup knowing games — a great de- Special Teams: 2.5% (6th) that a Jets win would fense and strong ground ensure a rematch be- game — had failed to Variance: 21.5% (27th) tween the two teams a win in exactly those 2009: Fifteen weeks of bad luck followed by four weeks of week later. The Ben- sort of games. Colum- good luck. gals had nothing to play nists noted that the Jets’ 2010: The playoff contender you expect, but not in the way for, and sat several de- elite defense wasn’t you expect. fensive starters. To be really all that great be- fair, this game was no 2010 Mean Projection: 9.8 wins cause they couldn’t competition: The Jets come through when it On the Clock (0-3): 1% stomped the Bengals. mattered, while Jets Loserville (4-6): 6% In doing so, though, fans across the Internet they converted six con- 19% criticized the team for Mediocrity (7-8): secutive third downs on pushing Sanchez into Playoff Contender (9-10): 35% the ground during the the starting lineup be- Super Bowl Contender (11+): 39% first quarter, a remark- fore their young quar- able figure that had only terback was ready. Projected Average Opponent: 4.8% (7th) been matched once all Well, the next morn- season over the course ing, Rex Ryan woke of an entire game. up and discovered that his team had a slim shot of With a playoff berth in hand, the Jets promptly went making the playoffs. 11.6 percent in fact, according on an even more unlikely streak. Road wins against to our Playoff Odds Report. And from then on, well, Cincinnati and San Diego weren’t exactly huge up- the Jets were just about the luckiest team in football. sets: The Jets had a 16.9% DVOA in the regular sea- Even ignoring how many outcomes needed to go their son, superior to both the Bengals (1.2%) and the Char- way in Week 16 just to keep their hopes alive, the Jets gers (13.6%). What was remarkable, though, was how were the beneficiaries of some wonderful timing dur- those upsets happened. Sanchez — the quarterback ing their next four games. who had been too awful to bury next to Jimmy Hoffa With nothing to play for short an undefeated sea- weeks earlier — was suddenly poised, operating a 1 2 NEW YORK JETS 2010 Jets Schedule Figure 1. 2009 Jets DVOA by Week 120% Week Opp. Week Opp. Week Opp. 100% 80% 1 BAL (Mon.) 7 BYE 13 at NE (Mon.) 60% 2 NE 8 GB 14 MIA 40% 3 at MIA 9 at DET 15 at PIT 20% 4 at BUF 10 at CLE 16 at CHI 0% 5 MIN (Mon.) 11 HOU 17 BUF 6 at DEN 12 CIN (Thu.) -20% -40% -60% -80% simple combination of safe throws and play-action -100% bootlegs with ease. The defense that couldn’t come through in the clutch made stops. And, naturally, the Jets got some help from Lady Luck. Opposing kickers Shayne Graham and Nate Kaeding went a combined 0-for-5 on field goals dur- got hurt, forcing the visibly-limited Thomas Jones to ing those two games. Jets special teams coach Mike handle the load. The Jets got to Manning with two Westhoff chalked it up to intimidation in an interview early sacks even though Ryan-led defenses had previ- with ESPN AFC East blogger Tim Graham: “...our ously only sacked Manning three times in 141 career guys really rush hard. It’s an extension of our defense. dropbacks, but they didn’t sack him again the rest of We rush hard every single time. Subconsciously, you the way. The team that created the opportunity for the watch it and go ‘Wait a minute. I don’t have all day.’ I Jets to catch so many breaks ended New York’s season think — and this is my opinion; I could be wrong — it with a comprehensive defeat. affects sometimes a rhythm where [the kickers] are a That opportunity has dramatically changed how little bit quicker than what they’d normally be.” management, media, and the public view the 2009 We can’t say whether Westhoff was wrong, but he Jets. Had the Colts left Peyton Manning and com- sure doesn’t appear to be right. We know, historically, pany in for the duration of the second half in Week that no team has shown a consistent ability to prevent 16, chances are that the Jets would have lost. A Jets teams from converting field goals at a lower rate than loss would’ve immediately stamped “disappointing” expected; while kicks are harder in certain stadiums as the adjective on the 2009 campaign; a loss in the re- or weather conditions, those issues bother both teams’ sulting meaningless Week 17 game would have even kickers. In fact, the Jets had been 3.3 points worse turned the season into a losing one. than league-average on opposing kickers’ scoring Instead, the postscript to the Jets’ season is that they plays during the season, a figure adjusted for envi- came a few plays away from the Super Bowl; that they ronment and the distance of each kick. Those kick- were a veteran here or a stop there short of a trip to ers went 19-of-23 on field goals against Gang Green Miami. The organization ran their offseason like they during the year. If we use that figure as the likelihood needed to stockpile veteran talent to turn a very good of a team successfully kicking a field goal against the team into an elite one, sacrificing draft picks and ros- Jets — and it would be a conservative estimate, con- ter spots that would normally be given to young play- sidering the quality of the opposing kickers and the ers for veterans like Antonio Cromartie, Jason Taylor, fact that four of the five kicks were from 40 yards out and LaDainian Tomlinson. or less — the odds of opposing kickers missing five The truth is that the Jets are neither the team people consecutive field goals against the Jets were 5,292:1. would have thought they were had they lost to the It was as if the Jets had saved every power-up they Colts in Week 16, nor the one that was perceived to had for those four games. be an elite unit after their playoff run. They were bet- A week later, the luck went away. Matt Stover went ter than a standard 7-7 team heading into Week 16; 3-for-3 on field goals, his rhythm apparently unaf- the law of averages suggests that they should have fected. Although Sanchez had arguably his best game won one or two of those five close games, which as a pro quarterback, breakout rookie Shonn Greene would have lessened their desperate exposure to NEW YORK JETS 3 luck in order to get into the playoffs. As we’ve made league. He was consistently able to convince quar- clear, we also don’t think they’re as good as their terbacks to throw in his direction, and yet, effective playoff run suggests. enough to prevent those passes from being completed. So who are the New York Jets, really? A team of That raises his value compared to a player like Nnam- almost comically exaggerated strengths and weak- di Asomugha, whose greatness simply funnels targets nesses, with a braggadocio that swings from celebra- over to the other, weaker players on the roster. tory and unifying to damaging and divisive seemingly Placing Revis’ performance in context is difficult. with each win and loss. Figuring out the difference Charting numbers are far from perfect measures of between what they were in 2009 and what’s going performance. More importantly, with only five years to change in 2010 is the easiest path to handicapping of charting data, there are no obvious reference their hopes. points for a historically-great performance, such as It seems only fair to start with the defense. The throwing for 50 touchdowns or running for 2,000 Jets led the league in defensive DVOA last year by a yards. What we can do is incorporate a statistical fair margin, with the second-place Packers closer to methodology known as Z-scores — which isolates eighth than they were to first. Both statistically and the difference between an outlying statistic and an schematically, that was driven by their pass defense.