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University of Southampton Research Repository Eprints Soton University of Southampton Research Repository ePrints Soton Copyright © and Moral Rights for this thesis are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder/s. The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given e.g. AUTHOR (year of submission) "Full thesis title", University of Southampton, name of the University School or Department, PhD Thesis, pagination http://eprints.soton.ac.uk UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON FACULTY OF PHYSICAL SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING School of Electronics and Computer Science A MODEL TO DESCRIBE THE ADOPTION OF MOBILE INTERNET IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA By Mike Santer Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy June 2013 ii iii UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON ABSTRACT FACULTY OF PHYSICAL SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING SCHOOL OF ELECTRONICS AND COMPUTER SCIENCE Doctor of Philosophy A MODEL TO DESCRIBE THE ADOPTION OF MOBILE INTERNET IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA By Mike Santer Mobile phones afford the capacity to connect the majority of people across our globe, irrespective of demographic and developmental factors, through voice calls and text messages (SMS). The mobile phone has, arguably, become the most powerful and pervasive information communication technology (ICT) innovation in human history, displaying a faster adoption rate than that of radio, TV or the personal computer. The mobile phone is even more prevalent in these countries than the supply of electricity and water. Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in sub-Saharan Africa are significantly impacted by the introduction of mobile phones as they typically have little or no fixed line infrastructure. In sub-Saharan Africa the mobile phone is the primary technology used to access the Internet, offering a gateway to the vast resources of digital content and services such as social networking, entertainment, and financial transactions. This leapfrogging from little or no communication infrastructure to near ubiquitous mobile penetration has the potential to iv empower people through access to information and affordable communication tools. This research investigates the drivers and dampeners of the “Adoption of Mobile Internet” (AMI) in sub-Saharan Africa to enable governments, non-profit organisations and commercial entities to plan strategic growth in this important developmental and capacity building technology. This thesis firstly draws on a literature review of the digital divide, empowerment and the implied key constructions influencing AMI in sub-Saharan Africa. Secondly, fieldwork from five sub-Saharan nations alongside findings from discussions with mobile experts into these AMI constructs are analysed using NVivo and presented. The literature review, fieldwork and expert discussion are then triangulated and bought together to develop a preliminary model using Systems Dynamic Modelling (SDM) which describes the main constructs and influences of AMI in Sub-Saharan Africa. The AMI SDM model is then tested for goodness of fit with validated data sets using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) and the standardizes regression weights used to inform the creation of a simulation model. The main findings of the thesis are that the exploratory model describing the adoption of mobile Internet in sub-Saharan Africa is a reasonable fit to published data. The two key influences for the adoption of mobile Internet in SSA are Digital Literacy and Digital Content. The two key indirect influences of AMI in SSA are the Service Provider and Literacy levels. The model predicts that both Education and Innovation are significantly impacted by an increase in the Adoption of Mobile Internet. The importance of Digital Content reinforces the conviction that the proposed BluPoint solution which offers free digital content to people living in constrained environments would be a suitable technology to offer in SSA. Adding the ability to publish and share local information freely would further enhance the need to develop this desktop prototype further. It is expected that the AMI model will act as a strategic tool for government policy makers in sub-Saharan Africa seeking to encourage their citizens to use their mobile phones to Join the growing global on-line community. v Contents Declaration of Authorship ................................................................................. xviii Acknowledgements .............................................................................................. xx Abbreviations ...................................................................................................... xxi Chapter 1. Introduction ...................................................................................... 1 1.1 Structure of report ................................................................................. 12 Chapter 2. Literature Review ........................................................................... 16 2.1 Convergence of Mobile and the Internet ............................................... 16 2.2 The Context of Mobile Internet in LDCs ................................................. 22 2.2.1 Impact of Mobiles ............................................................................ 25 2.2.2 Socio-Cultural Evolution ................................................................... 29 2.2.3 Affordances of Mobiles .................................................................... 33 2.2.4 Empowerment ................................................................................. 34 2.2.5 Digital Divide .................................................................................... 37 2.2.6 Mobiles for Development ................................................................ 39 2.2.7 Total Cost of Ownership of Mobile Phone ....................................... 40 2.3 Factors influencing adoption of Mobile Internet. .................................. 41 2.3.1 Infrastructure ................................................................................... 42 2.3.1.1 Electricity ................................................................................... 42 2.3.1.2 Regulation ................................................................................. 44 2.3.1.3 Open standards ......................................................................... 45 2.3.2 Network Providers ........................................................................... 46 2.3.3 Internet Cable Companies ............................................................... 47 2.3.4 Content Providers ............................................................................ 49 2.3.5 Literacy ............................................................................................. 50 2.3.6 Digital literacy .................................................................................. 51 2.3.7 Education ......................................................................................... 51 vi 2.4 Summary ................................................................................................. 51 Chapter 3. Methodology and fieldwork ............................................................ 54 3.1 Research Question .................................................................................. 55 3.2 Methodology ........................................................................................... 55 3.2.1 Triangulation ..................................................................................... 57 3.2.2 Case Study ........................................................................................ 57 3.2.3 System Dynamic Modelling .............................................................. 58 3.2.4 Structural Equation Modelling .......................................................... 59 3.2.5 Simulation ......................................................................................... 59 3.3 Field Work ............................................................................................... 60 3.3.1 Field Study ........................................................................................ 61 3.3.1.1 Pilot Study Locations .................................................................. 62 3.3.1.1.1 Dutywa, South Africa ........................................................... 63 3.3.1.1.2 Bridge Town, Cape Town, South Africa ............................... 64 3.3.1.1.3 Mzuzu, Malawi .................................................................... 65 3.3.1.1.4 Macha, Zambia .................................................................... 66 3.3.1.2 Method ...................................................................................... 66 3.3.1.3 Ethics .......................................................................................... 68 3.3.1.4 Process of Analysis ..................................................................... 68 3.3.1.5 Interview Findings ...................................................................... 70 3.3.1.6 Summary of Pilot Study .............................................................. 72 3.3.2 Expert Review ..................................................................................
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