FX Factors and Media
FX Factors and Media Media information can improve the performance of FX carry, momentum and valuation Currency management styles or factors are now firmly part of the active currency management Figure 1: G10 Value & Media, returns and information ratios landscape. Rule-based active currency factors such 35% Value + Media IR = 0.7 as Momentum, Valuation and Carry have been shown 30% to generate positive risk-adjusted returns over the 25% long term, though their performance can be sensitive 20% through time. 15% Value IR = 0.2 10% 5% Cumulative return Cumulative measures of media sentiment, intensity and 0% disagreement, which capture the tone, volume and -5% returns correlation = 0.7 dispersion of media coverage drawn from hundreds -10% of thousands of curated, unstructured online Mar'13 Mar'14 Mar'15 Mar'16 Mar'17 Mar'18 Mar'19 sources. Over the past six years, we have found that Value Value+Media this data can generate timely insights into the Source: State Street Global Markets. Notes: Results span 13 to . We performance of foreign currencies. These near real- measure factor performance from 2013 onwards to span the period for which we have media data. G10 currencies: AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, NOK, NZD, time pulses of broad media coverage enable investors SEK, USD to evaluate the impact of online chatter and control for systematic biases. Combinining these measures of media with traditional FX factors such as Momentum, Valuation and Carry can help enhance returns, reduce risk, and improve risk-adjusted performance. Figure 1 shows the historical performance of the media-enhanced value factor (Value+Media) applied to the major G10 currencies.
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