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From Tariffs to the Income Tax: Trade Protection and Revenue in the United States Tax System a Dissertation Submitted in Partial

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From Tariffs to the Income Tax: Trade Protection and Revenue in the United States Tax System a Dissertation Submitted in Partial From Tariffs to the Income Tax: Trade Protection and Revenue in the United States Tax System A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University By Phillip W. Magness Master of Public Policy George Mason University, 2004 Bachelor of Arts University of St. Thomas, 2003 Director: Jack High, Professor School of Public Policy Fall Semester 2009 George Mason University Fairfax, VA Copyright: 2009 Phillip W. Magness All Rights Reserved ii Acknowledgements The author wishes to extend his utmost gratitude to Professors Jack High, Kenneth A. Reinert, A. Lee Fritschler, and Peter Boettke of George Mason University, and Thomas McCraw of Harvard University for their continued support of this research as members of the author’s dissertation committee, and for the advice and guidance they supplied during its preparation. The author also wishes to convey his sincere thanks the following people who, while not members of the committee, provided invaluable contributions for this project: Professor Naoru Koizumi for her assistance in developing a proper statistical technique for testing the quantitative components of this research; Professor Catherine Rudder for her many insights, and, more importantly, her willingness to lend a receptive ear throughout the preparation of this dissertation; Professor Paul Weissburg, a friend and colleague par excellence who provided many suggestions to assist the formative development of the underlying thesis, both knowingly and unknowingly, during our conversations over the years; Ema Istrate, whose persistent encouragement ensured that this project remained on track and incentivized its eventual completion; Jacqueline London and Jeremy Shields, for their willingness to endure the early drafts of this manuscript and assist with its proofreading; and to many other friends, family, and colleagues who supported me during this effort. iii Table of Contents Page List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... vi List of Figures................................................................................................................... vii Abstract.............................................................................................................................viii I. Between Revenue and Protection.................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction............................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Borrowing from Economics.................................................................................... 31 1.4 Research Hypotheses .............................................................................................. 36 II. The Tariff as a Constitutional Problem........................................................................ 41 2.1 Tariffs and Federalism ............................................................................................ 41 2.2 The Problem of the Faction..................................................................................... 44 2.3 Between “Imposts” and “Duties”............................................................................ 50 2.4 The Tariff before 1787............................................................................................ 52 2.5 The Tariff at the Constitutional Convention........................................................... 62 2.6 The Tariff during Ratification................................................................................. 83 III. The Constitution in Practice........................................................................................ 90 3.1 The Origins of American Protectionism................................................................. 90 3.2 A Constitutional Counterargument......................................................................... 98 3.3 The Tariff in Constitutional Crisis........................................................................ 116 3.4 The Tariff and the Laffer Relationship ................................................................. 144 IV. High Revenue, High Tariff Protectionism................................................................ 153 4.1 The Tariff in the Gilded Age ................................................................................ 153 4.2 Tariffs, Income Taxes, and Left-Progressivism?.................................................. 168 4.3 Testing the Capitations Clause.............................................................................. 179 4.4 A Faulty Design .................................................................................................... 193 iv V. The “Progressive” Income Tax.................................................................................. 203 5.1 The Great Income Tax Debate of 1909................................................................. 203 5.2 A Club to Beat Down the Tariff ........................................................................... 239 5.3 What Hath We Wrought?...................................................................................... 265 5.4 One Last Hurrah.................................................................................................... 279 VI. EVIDENCE .............................................................................................................. 287 6.1 Protection and Revenue: Descriptive Tariff Measures ......................................... 287 6.2 Breakeven Revenue and “Scientific” Tariff Adjustment...................................... 303 6.3 Tariffs, Revenue, and the Laffer Relationship...................................................... 319 6.4 The Income Tax: A Rational Mistake?................................................................. 333 VII. CONCLUSIONS & POLICY IMPLICATIONS .................................................... 352 7.1 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 352 VIII. Appendixes............................................................................................................. 365 Appendix I – Selected Historical Ad Valorem Equivalent Rates............................... 365 Appendix II – Revenue Effects of the “Horizontal Tariff” Reduction ....................... 375 v List of Tables Table Page 1. Table 5.2-A, Income Tax Amendment Ratification ................................................... 244 2. Table 6.1-A, Selected AVE Rates – McKinley through Underwood Tariff............... 295 3. Table 6.1-B, AVE Rates for Alcohol and Tobacco .................................................... 296 4. Table 6.2-A, Breakeven Values for 1894 Wilson-Gorman Tariff Reforms ............... 312 5. Table 6.2-B, Breakeven Values for the Underwood Tariff Reforms.......................... 316 6. Table 6.3-A, t* with Fixed Import Price Assumption ................................................ 328 7. Table 6.3-B, t* with Variable Import Price Assumption............................................ 330 8. Table 6.4-A, Selected Major NYSE Industrial Firms, 1909....................................... 342 9. Table 6.4-B, Abnormal Returns in the Event Period.................................................. 349 vi List of Figures Figure Page 1. Figure 1.1-A, The Tariff in Partial Equilibrium ............................................................. 6 3. Figure 1.1-B, The Tariff and the Laffer Relationship..................................................... 8 4. Figure 2.1-A, Average Tariff Rate over Time .............................................................. 43 5. Figure 5.1-A. Anti-Income Tax Cartoon, 1909 .......................................................... 238 6. Figure 5.3-A, Customs Duties as a Source of Federal Revenue................................. 266 7. Figure 5.3-B: Sources of Federal Tax Revenue, 1863-1953 ...................................... 267 8. Figure 6.1-A, Federal Revenue Derived from Tariffs, 1865-1934 ............................. 289 9. Figure 6.1-B, AVE Tariff Rates by Revenue Category.............................................. 297 10. Figure 6.1-C, Tariff Revenue on Alcohol, 1892-1914.............................................. 298 11. Figure 6.1-D, Tariff Revenue on Tobacco, 1892-1914 ............................................ 298 12. Figure 6.1-E, Tariff Revenue on Alcohol and Tobacco, 1892-1914 ........................ 299 13. Figure 6.1-F, Alcohol and Tobacco Revenue ........................................................... 301 14. Figure 6.3-A, Revenue Effects of a Tariff ................................................................ 329 15. Figure 6.4-A, Variation in Average Stock Prices for June and July 1909................ 341 16. Figure 6.4-B, Daily Stock Index Return Percentages for June and July 1909.......... 346 17. Figure 7.1-A, the Tariff as a Prisoner’s Dilemma .................................................... 356 18. Figure 7.1-B, Tariff Statutes by Length.................................................................... 359 19. Figure 7.1-C, Protectionist Anti-Income Tax Cartoon, 1913 ................................... 364 vii Abstract FROM TARIFFS TO THE INCOME TAX: TRADE PROTECTION AND REVENUE IN THE UNITED STATES TAX SYSTEM Phillip W. Magness, Ph.D. George Mason University, 2009 Dissertation Director: Jack High
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