diversity Article Prioritizing Management of Non-Native Eurasian Watermilfoil Using Species Occurrence and Abundance Predictions Alison Mikulyuk 1,* , Catherine L. Hein 1, Scott Van Egeren 2, Ellen Ruth Kujawa 3 and M. Jake Vander Zanden 4 1 Bureau of Water Quality, Division of Environmental Management, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, 101 S Webster Street., Madison, WI 53707, USA;
[email protected] 2 Bureau of Water Quality, Division of Environmental Management, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, 107 Sutliff Avenue, Rhinelander, WI 54501, USA;
[email protected] 3 Bureau of Science Services, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, 2801 Progress Road, Madison, WI 53716, USA;
[email protected] 4 Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 680 N Park Street, Madison, WI 53706, USA;
[email protected] * Correspondence:
[email protected] Received: 11 August 2020; Accepted: 19 September 2020; Published: 13 October 2020 Abstract: Prioritizing the prevention and control of non-native invasive species requires understanding where introductions are likely to occur and cause harm. We developed predictive models for Eurasian watermilfoil (EWM) (Myriophyllum spicatum L.) occurrence and abundance to produce a smart prioritization tool for EWM management. We used generalized linear models (GLMs) to predict species occurrence and extended beta regression models to predict abundance from data collected on 657 Wisconsin lakes. Species occurrence was positively related to the nearby density of vehicle roads, maximum air temperature, lake surface area, and maximum lake depth. Species occurrence was negatively related to near-surface lithological calcium oxide content, annual air temperature range, and average distance to all known source populations.