PEBBLE-BED MODULAR REACTOR DEMONSTRATION POWER PLANT

SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSEMENT AS PART OF THE IMPACT ASSESSMENT PHASE OF THE EIA

REPORT NOVEMBER 2007 [REVISED MAY 2009 ]

PREPARED BY

A.B.J. DIPPENAAR OCTAGONAL DEVELOPMENT P.O.BOX 1344 GEORGE 6530 PHONE : 082 457 5675 [email protected]

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction p 5

1.1 Background Information p 5 1.2 PBMR DPP p 5 1.3 Terms of reference p 6 1.4 The proposed activity p 7 1.4.1 Construction phase components p 7 1.4.2 Operational phase components p 9 1.5 Project alternatives p10 1.6 Statement of independence and experience p12 1.7 Assumptions and limitations p12

2. Overview of study area p13

2.1 General Description of the study area p13 2.2 Koeberg Nuclear Power Station p15 2.3 Demographic profiles-population growth p16 2.3.1 Introduction p16 2.3.2 General p17 2.3.3 Population distribution p18 2.3.3.1 Population Data p19 2.3.3.2 Population Distribution per Sector p19 2.3.3.3 Population per Suburb p19 2.3.3.4 Population per EPZ p21 2.3.3.5 Projected Population p21 2.3.3.6 Special Population Groups p22 2.3.3.7 Tourist Population p25 2.3.3.8 Total Cumulative Population p26 2.3.3.9 Main Results p28 2.4 Housing p29 2.4.1 The CCT context p29 2.4.2 Blaauwberg context p31 2.4.3 Atlantis p33 2.5 Ward based demographic profile p33 2.6 Economic outlook p40

3. Overview of policy and legal framework p47

3.1 National Policies, Strategies & Legislation p48 3.2 Local Strategies, Policies & Legislation p53

4. Approach to study and methodology p56

4.1. Introduction p56 4.2 Social impact assessment in perspective p64 4.3 Economic impact assessment in perspective p66 4.3.1 National Context p66 ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 1 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

4.3.2 Provincial Context p66 4.3.3 Local Context p67

5. Socio-economic impact assessment p68

5.1 Construction Phase impacts and opportunities p68 5.1.1 Presence of construction workers on site p69 5.1.2 Influx of job seekers p71 5.1.3 Traffic impacts p73 5.1.4 Noise and dust impacts p76 5.1.5 Creation of employment and business p77 opportunities

5.2 Operational phase impacts and opportunities p82 5.2.1 Impact on health and safety p82 5.2.2 Creation of employment and business p90 opportunities 5.2.3 Impact on property prices p92 5.2.4 Impact on tourism p93 5.2.5 Sense of place p95 5.2.6 Visual impacts p97 5.2.7 Future land use planning in the area p98 5.2.8 Risks associated with nuclear incidents p100

5.3 Decommissioning phase impacts and opportunities p104 5.3.1 Increased fear levels re nuclear waste p105 5.3.2 Impact commensurate with influx job seekers p106

5.4. Assessment of no development option p106

6. Conclusions results and recommendations p107

6.1. General conclusions p107 6.2. Summary of results p108 6.2.1. Construction phase impacts p108 6.2.2. Operational phase impacts p109 6.2.3. Decommissioning phase impacts p110

7. Recommendations p110

References p111

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 2 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

MAPS, GRAPHS AND TABLES

MAPS

1 LOCATION OF KOEBERG NPS p15 2 BLAAUWBERG p32 3 GEOGRAPHICAL ORIENTATION OF WARDS p34

GRAPHS

1 BANDS AROUND KOEBERG p18 2 POPULATION PER SUBURB WITHIN 16KM RADIUS p20

TABLES

1 PROJECTED POPULATION IN 5 YEAR INTERVALS p21 2 SCHOOLS p22 3 UNIVERSITIES p24 4 CORRECTIONAL FACILITIES p24 5 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION WITHIN 5 KM p27 6 TOTAL MAXIMUM CUMALITIVE POPULATION 5KM p27 7 POPULATION GENDER PER SUBURB WITHIN 5KM p28 8 POPULATION AGE p29 9 DWELLING TYPE PER SUBURB WITHIN 16 KM p30 10 AGE p34 11 EDUCATION GROUPED p35 12 EDUCATION INSTITUTION p35 13 HOUSEHOLD INCOME p36 14 INDUSTRY p36 15 MODE OF TRANSPORT p37 16 OCCUPATION p37 17 PERSONAL INCOME p38 18 POPULATION GROUPED p38 19 WORK STATUS p38 20 TENURE STATUS p39 21 EMPLOYMENT STATUS p39 22 CIVIL INSTITUTIONS IN DUYNEFONTEIN p22 ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 3 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

23 TOP 10 SUB SECTORS OF INVESTMENT p41 24 WESTERN CAPE TRADE FLOWS, 2000-2004 p43 25 ASSESSMENT CRITERIA OUTCOMES p63 26 PRESENCE OF CONSTRUCTION WORKERS ON SITE P70 27 IMPACT OF INFLUX OF JOB SEEKERS p72 28 TRAFFIC IMPACTS p74 39 NOISE AND DUST IMPACTS p76 30 JOB OPPORTUNITIES CREATED PER SKILL LEVEL P78 31 LABOUR FORCE p78 32 EDUCATION GROUPED p78 33 CREATION OF EMPLOYMENT AND BUSINESS p79 OPPORTUNITIES 34 IMPACT ON HEALTH AND SAFETY p88 35 PERMANENT JOBS CREATED PER SKILL P91 36 CREATION OF EMPLOYMENT AND BUSINESS P91 37 NEGATIVE IMPACT ON PROPERTY VALUES p92 38 NEGATIVE IMPACT ON TOURISM INDUSTRY p95 OPPORTUNITIES 39 SENSE OF PLACE p96 40 VISUAL IMPACTS P97 41 FUTURE LAND USE PLANNING p100 42 RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH NUCLEAR INCIDENTS p102 43 INCREASED FEAR RELATED TO NUCLEAR WASTE p105 44 IMPACT OF INFLUX OF TEMPORARY WORKERS p106 45 ASSESSMENT OF NO DEVELOPMENT OPTION p107 46 KEY IMPACTS DURING CONSTRUCTION PHASE P108 47 KEY IMPACTS DURING OPERATIIONAL PHASE P109 48 KEY IMPACTS DURING DECOMMISSIONING PHASE P110 BOX 1 SOCIO-ECONOMIC BASELINE INFORMATION p65

FIGURE 1 PHYSICAL LAYOUT OF PBMR MAIN POWER SYSTEM p 6 2 ECONOMIC SECTORAL COMPOSITION p42

PHOTOGRAPHS 1 PBMR DPP WITH TABLE MOUNTAIN AS BACKDROP p16

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1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Background information

Between June 2000 and October 2002, an EIA for a 302 MW(t) PBMR DPP was completed for which a positive Record of Decision (RoD) was issued by DEAT in June 2003. The positive RoD was overturned by the Cape High Court on 26 January 2005. The 302 MW(t) PBMR DPP EIA is only relevant to this EIA in respect of the issues identified in that EIA. In compliance with the requirement from DEAT, the IRR compiled as part of this EIR includes relevant issues identified during the EIA for the 302 MW(t) PBMR DPP EIA. The current proposal is for a 400 MW demonstration unit to be constructed on the same site. Octagonal Development was appointed by Arcus Gibb (Pty) Ltd on behalf of the applicant, Eskom Holdings to conduct a socio-economic impact assessment (SEIA). This SEIA forms part of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for the proposed Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) which is to be located on the existing Koeberg site at Duynefontein 34, Western Cape Province.

1.2. PBMR (Pebble Bed Modular Reactor) “The PBMR is based on nuclear energy technology. At the heart of the process is a vertical steel reactor pressure vessel, which has a 6.2 m inner diameter and is approximately 27 m high. The reactor pressure vessel contains and supports a metallic core barrel, which contains pebble fuel spheres. The PBMR fuel consists of particles of enriched uranium dioxide coated with silicon carbide and carbon. The particles are encased in graphite to form a fuel sphere or pebble about the size of a billiard ball. When fully loaded, the core will contain approximately 452 000 fuel spheres.” (General terms of Reference for Specialists 2007) The nuclear fission reaction within the particles encased in the fuel spheres generates heat, which is emitted into the space between the fuel pebbles in the reactor core.

The heat is removed from the reactor vessel through the introduction of helium coolant that flows down between the hot fuel spheres, exiting the reactor vessel at a temperature of approximately 900 °C. The hot helium is used to drive a closed cycle gas turbine-compressor and generator system in a similar fashion as steam would drive the turbine in a coal fired power station.

After passing through the turbine, the hot helium passes through the recuperator transferring part of the remaining heat to the gas going back to the core. A pre-cooler before the low-pressure compressor and an intercooler before the high-pressure compressor remove waste heat to a water based cooling system. The water in the closed circuit is cooled by chlorinated seawater through a secondary heat exchanger. At full operation, Koeberg Nuclear Power Station (KNPS) extracts 80 cubic metres (m 3) of water per second from the ocean. The proposed PBMR DPP would require an additional 2,5 m 3 of water per second to be extracted from the ocean. This water is chlorinated to 1 part per million (ppm) before reaching the KNPS condensers, where the water temperature increases to an average of about 10°C above ambient temperature. The seawater is proposed to be obtained from the existing Koeberg intake basin. It is proposed that the warmed and chlorinated seawater will then be returned to the sea via the existing Koeberg outfall structure. The water is to be jetted in a south-westerly direction at a speed of between 2 and 3 m/s at the outlet of the outfall structure. As the warm water is more buoyant, a warm water plume is formed.

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Figure 1: Physical layout of the PBMR main power system

According to PBMR (2006) the potential advantages of PBMR technology are: • Increased inherent safety; • More economical use of nuclear fuel; • Non-reliance of complex cooling systems (which means that units can be situated away from the coast); • Potentially small size and simplicity of operation; and • Production of clean cost effective energy.

1.3. Terms of reference

The purpose of this Report is to provide the findings of the Socio-Economic Assessment related to the PBMR DPP. • The terms of reference for the SIA include: Identify, assess and evaluate the possible impacts of the PBMR DPP during all development phases (construction, commissioning, operation, decommissioning) of the proposed project; • In assessing the impacts of the operational phase, specialists are to consider the following: – Impacts during normal operation; – Impacts as a result of non-nuclear accidents and incidents; and – Impacts of a nuclear accident 1. • Identify and assess any cumulative impacts arising from the proposed project;

1 Any occurrence or succession of occurrences having the same origin and resulting in an unintended/unauthorised exposure to radiation or release of radioactive material, which is capable of giving rise to an effective dose in excess of 1mSv to the public off-site in a year, or in excess of 50 mSv to a worker on site received essentially at the time of the event. ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 6 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

• Determine the significance of assessed impacts according to the methodology provided by ARCUS GIBB and provide a revised significance rating of assessed impacts after the implementation of mitigation measures; • Undertake field surveys, as appropriate to the requirements of the particular specialist study; • Identify areas where integration of studies with other specialists would ensure a better assessment and coordinate with other specialists in this regard;

In addition following questions need to be answered as part of this assessment:

• “What, if any, will the impact on tourism be should the PBMR DPP be constructed at the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station (KNPS) Site?” • “What impact will activities associated with the proposed PBMR DPP have on the social structure and dynamics of the populations and economic activities in the surrounding environment?”

1.4. The proposed activity

Eskom is seeking authorization for the construction,operation and decommissioning of a 400 MW(t) Pebble-Bed Modular Reactor Demonstration Power Plant (PBMR DDP) along with associated infrastructure as detailed below. Impact on employment during construction amounts to 2490 direct opportunities as a result of the PBMR DPP with a total impact on low-income households estimated at R600 million per annum. The direct project cost relating to the demonstration power plant and pilot fuel plant, amounted to some R16 billion in June 2006 in real terms. According to the Final Plan of Study for EIA (September 2008) the following infrastructure is required to be constructed and/or altered during the construction phase of the development. This infrastructure consists of the following:

1.4.1 Construction phase components

General Infrastructure

This includes infrastructure such as repair shops, warehouses and parking areas for construction vehicles and machinery.

Proposed Main Construction Services

The main construction services include a potable water supply pipeline, power supply and data cables. The potable water supply pipeline is anticipated to run from the municipal bulk water main (running parallel to the R27) to the PBMR DPP site via the existing firebreak that runs adjacent to the Eskom HV power lines.

The pipe work for the potable water will be 250 mm not bulged (Normal Bore) high density polyethylene (HDPE) piping. The maximum flow rate through the line will be 120m 3/hr for a period of approximately 4 months. The water usage before and after this peak period will be, on average, 60% of the peak demand. The water pressure will be between 6 and 8 bar G.

The dimensions of the trench will be approximately 1,2m deep by 1m wide. In order to gain access for manpower and equipment, a five (5) metre servitude will be required, which will be restored as far as possible after construction. Approximately four (4) valve boxes will be introduced to allow future access to the pipeline. ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 7 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

The power supply for the R27 construction yard will be sourced via 2 x 11kV cables from a switchyard that is to be erected by Eskom adjacent to the KNPS bulk stores, and routed directly across the road (R27 to ACP) to join up with the potable water servitude.

Optical fibre cables will be routed from a point between the bulk stores and the environmental laboratories. The cable is to be routed directly underneath the road from the R27 to ACP and will join up with the potable water servitude.

The total servitude will be jacked underneath the R27 by an experienced and professional pipe jacking company. This process will be approved by the Department of National Roads.

Contractor Yard (Laydown Areas)

Areas for the laydown of construction materials and equipment are required during the construction phase. Two alternative areas have been identified for assessment.

Temporary Bypass around the Modder River Bridge

During the transportation of heavy equipment from Saldanha Bay Harbour to the PBMR DPP Site, it will be necessary to cross the Modder River. To avoid damaging the Modder River Bridge, which is located approximately 27 km from the R27 turn-off to the KNPS site, it may be necessary to construct a temporary bypass on the downstream side of the Modder River Bridge. The bypass would be approximately 11 m wide and 250 m in length with pipes placed to take the stream flow. It has been recommended that the bypass be constructed during the dry season and then used as required.

It is important to note that this bypass will only be needed if further investigations suggest that it will not be possible to cross the bridge using an appropriate engineering solution. In this regard, the feasibility of using temporary beams supported by cranes upon which the reactor pressure vessel will slide across the bridge is under consideration. The specialist studies in wetland ecology, flora and fauna have considered the impacts associated with the temporary bypass in the event that it becomes necessary.

Widening of Intersections

Temporary civil works will be required to widen the intersections of the R559 and the R79 as well as at the intersection of the R79 with the R27. This widening is necessary to allow for the width (approximately 8 m) of the combination trailer transporting the reactor pressure vessel from Saldanha Bay Harbour to the PBMR DPP Site.

Avoidance of Telkom Lines and Power Lines

Approximately 10 Telkom line crossings have been identified along the route proposed for the transportation of heavy equipment from Saldanha Bay Harbour to the PBMR DPP Site. The lines will need to be cut and replaced after the load has moved through.

A cutting will be constructed parallel to the R27 to allow oversized loads sufficient clearance beneath the Eskom HV power lines.

Propping of Culverts

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Large culverts along the roads proposed for the transport of the heavy equipment will need to be temporarily propped in order to prevent structural damage.

Improvement of Picnic Areas for Laybye Areas

Six picnic spots have been identified along the proposed route for transportation of the heavy equipment from Saldanha Bay. It is proposed that these picnic spots be upgraded for use as a traffic laybye.

Accommodation for Construction Workers

Accommodation for approximately 800 workers will also be required during the construction phase. Initially, this requirement had been included in the scope of the EIA study, however, it was later proposed that existing accommodation in surrounding areas be utilised for construction workers and therefore no construction village will be required. It is anticipated that approximately 70% of the labour force will be sourced from the local communities, which will reduce the need for additional accommodation. It is also anticipated that the remaining labour force (which is anticipated to be skilled labour) could be accommodated in existing tourism infrastructure. The promotion of sourcing local labour will also reduce the impact and pressure on service delivery for the City of Cape Town as well as reduce potential impacts on land use, surrounding communities, health and other socio-economic factors such as the introduction of people dissimilar in profile and the inflow of workers from outside the local area. Based on the above, the need for the additional construction village was deemed unnecessary and has been removed from the scope of this EIA.

1.4.2 Operational phase components

The following infrastructure will be required for the duration of the operational phase of the proposed PBMR DPP :

Module Building

The nuclear reactor and associated components are housed in the reactor building. The reactor building structure is comprised of reinforced concrete. The foundation for the building is comprised of an approximately 3 m thick raft, founded on bedrock approximately 26 m below surface level. The surface level around the reactor building at the proposed site is at an elevation of approximately 13.5 m above mean sea level (amsl). The reactor building will have a height of approximately 60 m above surface level. A chimney stack of approximately 15 m in height will extend from the reactor building.

Generator and Main electrical power system

The generator and associated electrical and auxillary power plant are located in a generator building which is situated adjacent to the northern gable of the reactor building. The generator house comprises of a conventional framed structure, constructed of reinforced concrete to 3 m above the generator floor, located approximately 10 m above surface. Above this level a structural steel support system, covered with aluminium sheeting, is proposed.

Radioactive Waste Handling Building

The services building houses the main control room and the waste handling and storage system and also provides the controlled access to the reactor building.

Standby Diesel Generator Building

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The ancillary building is located to the east of the reactor building and north of the services building and houses the medium and low voltage switchgear, the diesel generators and other systems associated with the operation of the PBMR DPP. Underground tunnels interconnect the reactor building with the services and ancillary buildings.

Cooling Water Plant Building

The helium gas that cycles through the reactor and drives the turbine is indirectly cooled with seawater. A cooling water plant building is located to the west of the generator building and houses the cooling water pumps and heat exchangers. Piping between the cooling water plant building and the reactor building is routed via an underground tunnel.

Administration Office Building

An administration office building on the south west corner of the terrace will house the PBMR DPP staff. The services building, ancillary building, administration building and cooling water plant building are likely to be constructed using conventional beam column frames supporting reinforced concrete floors and structural steel clad roofs.

132 kV Transmission Power Line and Extension of the Duine Substation

A 132 kV transmission power line (double circuit) is proposed to be constructed from the proposed PBMR DPP to the existing Duine Substation and the Koeberg Substation. This transmission line links the proposed PBMR DPP to the national transmission network. The type of towers to be used will be either round steel poles or lattice. Each tower will be approximately 31 m in height. The width of the servitude likely to be required is between 30 m and 40 m. To accommodate the 132 kV power line, the existing Duine Substation will need to be increased by 25 m towards the north and by 45 m towards the south.

Internal and External Roads

Widening of a portion of the road to the KNPS from the R27 turnoff and the construction of internal roads for access to the PBMR DPP site is also proposed.

Existing Infrastructure on the KNPS Site

Existing infrastructure on the KNPS site is proposed to be used as far as possible for the PBMR DPP. This infrastructure includes the following:

• Cooling water from the sea using the existing intake basin and outflow structures; • Low and intermediate level radioactive waste management and storage structures and systems for the processing of such waste prior to disposal to Vaalputs Waste Disposal Site in the Northern Cape; • Existing transmission power line network including substations; • Sewage treatment facilities; • Certain internal roads; and • Existing security measures.

1.5. Project alternatives

Location alternatives

Location alternatives were considered during the previous EIA for the 302 MW(t) PBMR DPP(2002) and were discussed in the Revised Final Environment Scoping Report (RFESR) for the 400 MW(t) PBMR DPP EIA.

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The RFESR provided information on four alternative sites namely Thyspunt, Bantamsklip, Koeberg and Pelindaba. The information included a description of each site and a comparative evaluation of the four sites with respect to supporting infrastructure required and environmental and social aspects. The finding of this assessment was that all sites other than the Koeberg site should be eliminated from further consideration. Thyspunt and Bantamsklip were eliminated due to their greenfield status.

All three sites were eliminated based on the absence of suitable infrastructure at these sites and the significant additional cost which would be involved to develop or upgrade (Pelindaba) the required infrastructure at these sites. The cost of developing the new infrastructure and the environmental impacts associated therewith, aspects which are not applicable to Koeberg at a comparable scale, were the primary reasons for eliminating all other sites from further consideration in the EIA. The analysis provided in the RFESR also utilised a study conducted in July 2001 by Eskom Generation PBMR Client Office on the Pelindaba site itself. (EIA, September 2008)

In summary, based on the RFESR analysis, the PBMR DPP can be established more economically and at a lower environmental cost at the Koeberg NPS site, than at the alternative site of Pelindaba.

Technological Alternatives

Other technological alternatives of power generation involving coal as a resource are not a viable option for the Eastern and Western Cape because of the cost of transporting coal over long distances. Moreover, coal-fired power stations are major pollutants, and nuclear energy is much cleaner.

Renewable energy may be utilised to assist in the supply-side of operations. Identified renewable forms of energy, for example wind and solar, are inadequately developed to provide large-scale power generation facilities that can supply a reliable base load and easily be integrated into the existing power network in South Africa. This is not to say that wind, solar and even wave energy cannot be developed cost-effectively in due course, but at present they are not economic alternatives.2

The no-go alternative

The RFESR concluded that the no-go alternative would be considered in the Impact Assessment Phase of the EIA. In the context of this project, the no-go alternative implies that the PBMR DPP will not be developed.

The no-go alternative will imply that virtually none of the identified impacts of proceeding with the project will be incurred. Conversely, selection of the no-go alternative will also result in the benefits of the project not being realized. The benefits of the PBMR DPP include the demonstration of the feasibility and viability of the technology as a means to produce electricity as part of South Africa’s energy supply. In addition, should the no-go alternative be selected, the positive impact of the PBMR DPP on macro-economic performance indicators will be lost.

2 Nuclear 1 EIA, Draft Economic Impact Report Economic Assessment: 2008 p 56

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The selection of the no-go alternative will also result in the negative impacts of the project not being realised. Aspects like the inflow of unemployed workers, fear of perceived risks (although Koeberg NPS is a reality), additional pressure on service delivery, negative impacts on individual, family and community living and safety issues would not be realized if the no-go alternative is selected.

1.6. Statement of independence and experience

Octagonal Development and Alewijn Dippenaar are independent and do not have any interest, be it business, financial, personal or other, in any proposed activity, application or appeal in respect of which Arcus GIBB was appointed as environmental assessment practitioner in terms of the National Environmental Management Act, 1998 (Act No. 107 of 1998), other than fair remuneration for worked performed, specifically in connection with the Environmental Impact Assessment for the proposed PBMR DPP.

Alewijn Dippenaar holds a B.Diac.Hons(Unisa) in social work and has consulted extensively in the field of social and economic development. After working for 12 years in the field of community development in the agriculture sector, the focus turned to the economic and social impact of development projects within the context of integrated development planning. Involvement in the latter in local municipalities includes formulation of economic development plans for four municipalities, integrated development plans for 15 municipalities, strategic planning for five municipalities and four provincial government departments. Other related work in the local and provincial government sector include policy formulation and development planning regarding poverty, housing, tourism, spatial planning, housing development including sustainable human settlements, disaster management and sport development. Socio-economic impact assessments completed include housing projects along the West Coast, Cape Winelands and Hermanus. Further assessments include golf resort development, impacts on changes in child grand system and holiday resort utilization. Database development and analysis include socio-economic profiles for 12 municipalities and a total of 4 500 farms.

Through participative consultation processes, Dippenaar facilitated more than 500 workshops, focus group and information workshops over the last 10 years. The key focus being understanding the needs, aspirations, challenges and opportunities of communities, groups and individuals in order to plan solutions and formulate plans of actions to improve quality of life within the framework of the triple bottom line e.g. human well-being, economic prosperity and environmental integrity.

1.7. Assumptions and limitations

Human nature and the current challenging realities that people face, contribute towards the subjective nature of socio-economic impact assessments. As mentioned before, different people tend to view the realities of life differently and therefore the impact that may be negative for one individual or community could be the best and most positive impact for the next. For example, people who trade in illegal substances such as dagga, may find that a large concentration of construction workers offer the opportunity to sell their products. For them it may be a positive economic income, but for the community this could be viewed as the breaking down of the basic fabric of human life and community values.

The far reaching impact of nuclear power, places a huge responsibility on the socio – economic impact assessment process to identify the key and most important impacts valid to communities close to the site and in the broader South Africa context. The ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 12 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment assumption therefore is that the issues identified are valid for the local communities but also valid for people who live elsewhere and those who may move into the area in the future. The limitation of the study is due to the fact that it is a challenge to conduct an extended, inclusive and intensive public participation process for the socio-economic impacts due to time constraints and the high cost involved. The selection of a representative group of people to consult with to gain understanding of the issues and affected environment do have limitations because people are not always willing to attend and participate in discussions and consultation sessions. Often people are hesitant to contribute openly in group meetings and it is not always possible to conduct individual interviews with them.

One of the most challenging limitations deals with the availability of correct, up to date and relevant statistics. Often, it is not possible to compare available information from previous studies due to the differing methodologies used to gather and interpret information. For example, the information around Koeberg ranges from a specific radius to ward information, neighbourhood or geographical area. Methods to update project population data differ from one individual to the next.

For example, one survey will use the age of 15-19 as a group while the next survey uses the age 15-21 as a group. The number of workers is sometimes used to determine the status of a business as small, medium or large and others use turnover as the basis.

The socio-economic impact assessment must be seen and integrated into the broader EIA study to ensure a broader context for impacts mentioned.

The impact assessment tables pose a limitation for the socio-economic impacts in the sense that the tables do not allow for a comparison between the impacts with a weight attached and those without. Not all impacts have the same value and it is not part of the impact tables to assess the relative value of each impact towards an index figure.

2. OVERVIEW OF STUDY AREA

2.1. General description of the study area

The proposed PBMR site falls within the Cape Metropolitan Area, which forms part of the Western Cape Province and is the only metropolitan area in this province.

The proposed PBMR site is approximately two (2) km from the Duynefontein residential area, 30 km north of Cape Town centre and 10 km south of Atlantis, as shown in MAP 1.

The proposed PBMR site is situated on the existing Koeberg site, 400m south of the existing Koeberg Reactor, as shown in Photo 1. The location of the proposed PBMR site falls inside the Access Control Point 1 security fence of the KNPS site.

The proposed PBMR site is located within the Eskom Controlled Area, in Ward 32 of the City of Cape Town (CCT), on the farm Duynefontein (farm number 34) within the Koeberg Private Nature Reserve. The Reserve is approximately 3 000 ha. Duynefontein stretches 4.4 km along the coast and 3.5 km inland comprising 1 257 ha. The West Coast Road (R27) crosses over the farm providing excellent access to the site.

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Ward 29 borders the site to the north and includes Mamre (small farmers and low- income groups) and Atlantis (low-income groups). Ward 23 borders to the south including Table View, Melkbosstrand and Bloubergstrand (high-income groups). Wards 104 and 4 (medium to high-income groups) are situated further to the south. See Map 2 for geographical orientation of Wards and location of Koeberg. (Detail is given under paragraph 2.2 and 2.3)

The topography of the 10 km study area surrounding the proposed PBMR site as well as the existing Koeberg site is characterised by a sandy terrain with small dunes and cape “fynbos” vegetation. The area is relatively flat with no obstruction towards any type of development, thus the vast extending residential growth from Melkbosstrand northwards in the direction of Koeberg.

Any proposed new development will take place to the south, east and north of the existing Koeberg site according to planning and safety legislation for the area. Further detail is given in paragraph 2.3, about the type of developments found surrounding the study area.

According to the Land Use Study (CNdV. January 2008) with a study area covering a 10 km radius from the proposed PBMR DPP Site, the area comprises both urban and rural landscapes/uses. A total of 7 719.4 ha (44%) of the study area is located within or intersected by the 5 km Precautionary Action Zone (PAZ) cadastral boundary and 9 971.4 ha (56%) between the 5 km PAZ cadastral boundary and the 10 km study area boundary.

The area within or intersected by the 5 km PAZ can only be developed in terms of its current zoning, unless enhanced development rights are required for and related to electricity generation at Koeberg Nuclear Power Station.

Within the 5 km PAZ the agriculture zoning occupies the largest area 94.6%, while land zoned for residential use occupies only 3.3% and land zoned for utility services and commerce approximately 1.7%. Within the 5 km PAZ, where development is limited to the existing zoning and enhanced development rights are not permitted, a relatively small area (5.0%) has urban-type zoning.

Outside the PAZ but within a 10 km radius, CnDV Africa Planning (January 2007) found that agriculture zoning dominates (91%) the area.

Formal conservation areas include Blouberg Provincial Nature Reserve, Blaauwberg Mountain Private Nature Reserve and Koeberg Private Nature Reserve.

The Blaauwberg Conservation Area is located on the southern edge of the mentioned study area, adjacent to the 5 km PAZ. The West Coast Biosphere Reserve is the most extensive conservation initiative within the study area, extending from the coast to the N7 and down to Blaauwberg in the south.

The two informal settlements in the immediate area include Oogies Kraal situated on the eastern side, next to the R27 halfway between Melkbosstrand and Koeberg and Rietbosvlei within the residential area of Melkbosstrand. According to the community living in Oogies Kraal, a decision was taken to remove them to Witsand north of Koeberg and a number of families have already moved. The community at Rietbosvlei indicated that they are waiting for houses to to built at Witsand before they will be relocated there.

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According to senior officials of City of Cape Town there is one housing project underway at Witsand, of which the first phase will be 400 houses and a later phase or phases of 1 600 houses.

In Melkbosstrand a housing project of 100 houses will mainly be occupied by the current residents of Oogies Kraal and Rietbosvlei informal settlements.

Melkbosstrand, Blouberg and Duynefontein are all medium to high-income residential areas with well-developed infrastructure and a network of businesses, social infrastructure and community networks.

MAP 1 : Location of Koeberg Nuclear Power Station

2.2. Koeberg Nuclear Power Station (KNPS)

The KNPS site is located within the Eskom Controlled Area, in Ward 32 of the City of Cape Town (CCT), on the farm Duynefontein (farm number 34) within the Koeberg Private Nature Reserve. The Reserve is approximately 3 000 ha. Duynefontein stretches 4.4 km along the coast and 3.5 km inland comprising 1 257 ha. The West Coast Road (R27) crosses over the farm giving excellent access to the site. Ward 29 borders to the north and includes Mamre and Atlantis. Ward 23 borders to the south including Melkbosstrand and Bloubergstrand. Wards 104 and 4 are situated further to the south. See Map 2 for geographical orientation of Wards and location of Koeberg. All wards mentioned falls within the Cape Metropolitan area and are Cape Town City wards.

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 15 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

The adjacent farm, Kleine Springfontein (farm number 33) also belongs to ESKOM. This property comprises 3,6 km of coast to the north of Duynefontein and stretches 3.75 km inland and measures 1 590 ha .

South of Duynefontein, ESKOM also owns land that has been developed as a housing estate for Koeberg employees. It comprises 87.5 ha of the 309 ha of land. This area is now private property and part of Melkbosstrand.

The KNPS site is approximately two (2) km from the Duynefontein residential area, 30 km north of Cape Town and 10 km south of Atlantis.

The proposed location of the PBMR DPP is some 400 m south of the existing Koeberg Power Station, inside the Access Control Point 1 security fence of the KNPS site. The PBMR will require approximately 9 ha of the KNPS site, which is approximately 125 ha in extent. The site and surrounding nature reserve are managed according to a formal integrated environmental management system.

Photo 1 – PBMR DPP taken towards the direction of Table Mountain in Cape Town.

2.3 Demographic profiles – Population growth and distribution

2.3.1. Introduction

The purpose of this section is to present the population distribution, as well as the projected population distribution, within 80 km of the proposed PBMR DPP site.

This information will assist in establishing the suitability of the proposed PBMR DPP site for current and future operations and the radiological impact that a nuclear

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 16 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment installation located on the site may have on public health and safety. The population distribution information is thus vital for future planning and development near the power plant, as well as for nuclear emergency planning. In the unlikely event of a nuclear incident, the effectiveness of counter-measures depends on the size of the population and its spatial distribution.

The following factors influence the demographical report of the proposed PBMR DPP site:
The fact that the last update of demographical study for PBMR DPP site was done as recent as 2006;
The main population explosion in the area, is mostly in the immediate vicinity of the PBMR DPP site, namely the Melkbosstrand, Bloubergstrand and Sunningdale/Parklands area;
The demography in the 80 km radius surrounding PBMR DPP site shows a normal trend according to all scientific studies done;
The fact that various studies have been done in the area;

2.3.2. General

The 2001 census figures have been used as the baseline data for the description of population distribution within 80 km of the PBMR DPP site. Figures used for the jurisdictional area of Cape Town have been obtained from the City of Cape Town, the Demarcation Board of South Africa, Statistics SA and Koeberg Site Safety Report, Chapter 3 Rev. 2006.

The population distribution is described relative to 5° and 22,5° radial grids and relative to the KNPS and EPZs. Analysis of population distribution and growth in terms of the 80 km radius and 16 km radius included the following:

• the population distribution within 5 km distance bands around the PBMR DPP site (22,5° radial grid) up to 80 km ( 2001); • the population distribution within 2,5 km distance bands around the PBMR DPP site (22,5° radial grid) up to 80 km ( 2001); • the population distribution within 5 km distance bands around the PBMR DPP site (5° radial grid) up to 80 km (200 1); • the population per suburb within 16 km from the PBMR DPP site (2001); • the gender per suburb within 16 km from the PBMR DPP site (2001); • the age per suburb within 16 km from the PBMR DPP site (2001); • the type of dwelling per suburb within 16 km from the PBMR DPP site (2001); • the population distribution per EPZ (2004); and • the projected population in five year intervals until 2031 within 5 km distance bands around the PBMR DPP site (22,5° radial grid) up to 80 km.

All distances in the drawings, figures and tables are measured in a straight line from the co-ordinate below, which is located at a central position between Koeberg 900 MW PWR units 1 and 2. Koeberg site co-ordinates: X: -52727.4000 Y: -3727966.6500

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 17 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

2.3.3. Population Distribution

GRAPH 1: Bands around Koeberg

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 18 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

2.3.3.1. Population Data

The population distribution data being presented was mainly sourced from 2001 census data provided by Statistics South Africa, the City of Cape Town, the Provincial Government of the Western Cape, and the Demarcation Board of SA.

Data per sub-place and small area was utilised to calculate the various population distributions per sector. This approach provides sufficient spatial accuracy of the 2001 population distribution within 80 km of the Duynefontein site and is suitable for the purposes of projections and emergency planning.

2.3.3.2. Population Distribution per Sector

The population data was organised into segments defined by radial sectors (22,5° and 5°) and distance bands (5 km and 2,5 km) around the PBMR DPP site up to a distance of 80 km. The census of 2001 show a population of approximately 3,2 million within 80 km of the PBMR DPP site in 2001. The largest population concentrations are in a S, SSE (highest) and SE direction from Koeberg, coinciding with the City of Cape Town.

Further, the population distribution shows sharp spikes around main towns, i.e. Atlantis between the distances 10 km and 20 km NNE, Moorreesburg between the distances 60 km and 65 km NNE, Malmesbury between the distances 30 km and 40 km NE, Paarl / Wellington between the distances 45 km and 55 km E, Franschhoek between the distances 65 km and 75 km ESE, and Stellenbosch between the distances 45 km and 55 km SE. Marginal differences occur between tables, graphs and figures, but these marginal differences could be regarded as negligible.

2.3.3.3. Population per Suburb

A population of approximately 120 000 people resided within 16 km of the PBMR DPP site in 2001, with Avondale and Saxonsea in Atlantis containing the highest population densities.

The population gender distribution is relatively evenly distributed throughout the 16 km zone with females having a slightly higher count at approximately 61 100 females against approximately 58 500 males.

A young population is present in the 16 km zone with the majority of the population being under the age of 40 years (approximately 72%) and with the highest percentage age distribution (approximately 19%) being between the ages of 10 and 19.

A total of 32 246 dwellings are found within 16 km of Koeberg (2001), with the majority of dwelling types (approximately 93%) being of a formal nature.

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 19 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

GRAPH 2: Population per suburb within 16km radius

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 20 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

2.3.3.4. Population per EPZ

The EPZ as compiled for Koeberg is being accepted for this report, however it does need to be updated. For the purposes of this report, the EPZ for PBMR DPP and towns in the area will be accepted as the status quo.

2.3.3.5 Projected Population

The population figures in five-year intervals until 2031 ( Table 1) around the PBMR DPP site, with 1.8%, 2.4% and 3.7% growth rate, were used for all projections. The average population growth of 2.4% is however used for basic projections. At a 1.8% growth rate the population in the 80 km radius surrounding the PBMR DPP site is projected to be currently (2008) at 3,6 million people and is projected to grow to approximately 5,5 million people for 2031.

TABLE 1: PROJECTED POPULATION IN 5 YEAR INTERVALS UNTIL 2031

Years Population Growth @ Population Growth @ Population Growth @ 1.8% per year 2.4% per year 3.7% per year

2001 3 200 000 3 200 000 3 200 000

2006 3 498 556 3 602 880 3 837 459

2011 3 824 968 4 056 482 4 601 903

2016 4 181 833 4 567 193 5 518 631

2021 4 571 993 5 142 202 6 617 975

2026 4 998 555 5 789 604 7 936 315

2031 5 464 914 6 518 515 9 517 276

The average of a 2.4% growth rate is used for projections within the 80 km radius surrounding the PBMR DPP site, at currently (2008) 3,8 million people, with a estimate projection of 6,5 million people for 2031.

The higher growth rate of 3.7% could be used for projections, but only for areas with a higher growth potential, like the Bloubergstrand, Melkbosstrand and Sunningdale/Parklands areas, would this most likely apply.

“It is assumed that the percentage increase in each sub-region or local municipality is evenly distributed. It could be expected that certain sectors within the same sub- region or local municipal area would have a higher percentage growth than others (such as urban areas compared to rural areas within the same urban area). In this regard, it should be noted that Bloubergstrand and Parklands (within the sub-region of Blaauwberg) have experienced a high level of growth during the recent past. In the case of rural areas the impact of this assumption is regarded as negligible as the rural areas contain a low percentage of the population distribution.” (Koeberg Site Safety Report, Chapter 3 Rev. 2006)

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 21 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

The following calculation has been made in relation to each sector in order to calculate the projected population growth in a GIS environment:

n End population = P 1 × [1 + (g ÷ 100)] Where: P1 = Population at beginning of period g = Growth rate n = Period in years

2.3.3.6. Special Population Groups

The following special population groups are situated in the PBMR DPP area; eight hundred and seventy (870) schools, with a total population of 596 069, six (6) Universities with a population of 118 486, thirteen (13) Correctional Facilities (Prisons), with a total population of 17 762, 24 hospitals, 658 old age homes, 24 homes for disabled people, 33 children’s homes, 5 places of safety for children, 5 shelters for abused woman, 15 shelters for adults and 13 shelters for street children.

• Schools

Table 2: Schools Town Number of Schools Population

Atlantis 15 13965

Bellville 93 66994

Bishops Lavis 1 741

Black Heath 7 8002

Bonteheuwel 2 1031

Cape Town 166 92623

Darling 7 1835

Durbanville 4 3662

Eersterivier 15 18957

Elim 1 267

Elsiesrivier 31 18199

Faure 3 1005

Franschoek 6 3385

Gordon’s Bay 2 1009

Gouda 2 694

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Grabouw 13 6501

Hopefield 3 1435

Khayelitsha 69 62592

Kraaifontein 22 19463

Koringberg 1 208

Landsdown 2 1461

Landsdowne 8 4437

Langebaan 4 950

Malmesbury 20 10225

Mitchellsplein 92 68090

Mamre 2 820

Nanga 5 2988

Paarl 59 36470

Phillidelphia 1 150

Parow 21 16078

Phillipi 8 5143

Pniel 1 607

Saron 2 1837

Saldanna 7 4025

Somerset-West 24 15581

Steenberg 1 1160

Stellenbosch 28 20022

Sunnydale 2 2229

Strand 16 16066

Tulbagh 7 2276

Wynberg 97 62886

Total 870 596069

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 23 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

• Hospitals

Seven x Provincial/District Hospitals Three x TB Hospitals Four x Psychiatric Hospitals Three x Tertiary Hospitals One x Maternity Hospital Six x Secondary Hospitals

• Universities/Colleges

Table 3: Universities

Town Number Population

Stellenbosch 1 24686

Rondebosch UCT 1 21800

Bellville UWC 1 15000

Technical Colleges 8 13000

Peninsula CPUT 5 29000

North. Tech. College 1 15000

Total 17 118 486

• Correctional Facilities

Table 4: Correctional Facilities

Town Number Population

Paarl – Allandale 1 579

Wellington – Hawequa 1 247

Wellington- Paardeberg 1 435

Paarl – Drakenstein 3 2067

Stellenbosch 1 115

Goodwood 1 2453

Malmesbury 2 1619

Riebeek-Wes 1 235

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 24 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

Van Rhynsdorp 1 88

Porterville– Voorberg 2 2222

Pollsmoor Admin 1 4248

Pollsmoor A B C 3 3005

Pollsmoor Female 1 449

19 17 762

• Other facilities include :

• 658 x Accommodation for the Elderly; • 24 x Homes for Disabled People; • 33 x Children’s Homes; • 5 x Places of Safety for Children; • 5 x Shelters for Abused Women; • 15 x Shelters for Adults; and • 13 x Shelters for Street Children.

2.3.3.7 Tourist population

The data relating to the tourism population for both domestic and international tourists has mainly been sourced from South African Tourism and the Human Science Research Council (HSRC). The figures for the tourist population were only available as a total for the Western Cape and a percentage rate into the Cape Town area (totals per year for 2003/2004). To arrive at the number of tourists at any given day in the peak tourist period, the following assumptions have been made: • The peak domestic tourist season is the 8 weeks over the December/January school holidays; • The peak international tourist season ranges from October to February; • The combined peak tourist season is the 8 weeks over December and January; • Of the total number of domestic tourists that visit the Cape Town area, at least 60% visit over the peak domestic tourist season; • Of the total number of international tourists that visit the Cape Town area, at least 60% visit over the peak international tourist season; • The average time spent in the Cape Town area by domestic tourists is 10 days; and • The average time spent in the Cape Town area by international tourists is 9 days.

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 25 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

2.3.3.7.1. Domestic Tourists It is estimated that the Western Cape received 5 179 972 domestic tourists during 2003 with an average penetration rate to the Cape Town area of 44,3%. The Cape Town area thus received 2 294 728 domestic tourists. Based on the assumption that 60% of all domestic tourists visit the Cape Town area over the peak domestic tourist season, one arrives at a figure of 1 376 837 people. The peak domestic tourism season is 8 weeks or 56 days, which when divided by the average time spent by domestic tourists, namely 10 days, gives a value of 5,6. When 5,6 is divided into 1 376 837 people visiting over the peak period, a figure of 245 864 people is obtained. Thus on any one day in the peak domestic tourist season, there will be an estimated 245 864 domestic tourists in the Cape Town area. The above calculation assumes that the domestic tourist population is constant over the peak domestic period. 2.3.3.7.2. International Tourists It is estimated that the Western Cape received 1 543 993 international tourists during 2004 with an average penetration rate to the Cape Town area of approximately 91,26%. The Cape Town area thus received approximately 1 409 023 international tourists. The following calculation has been made in order to calculate the international tourist population on any one-day over the peak international tourist season: Based on the assumption that 60% of all international tourists visit the Cape Town area over the period from October to February, one arrives at a figure of 845 414 people. The peak international tourism season is 22 weeks or 154 days, which when divided by the average time spent by international tourists, namely 9 days, gives a value of 17,1. When 17,1 is divided into 845 414 people visiting over the peak international period, a figure of 49 439 people is obtained. Thus on any given day in the peak international tourist season, there will be an estimated 49 439 international tourists in the Cape Town area. Again, the above calculation makes the assumption that the international tourist population is constant over the peak international period.

2.3.3.8. Total Cumulative Population

The projection according to the above-mentioned report suggested that the estimated cumulative population within 80 km of the Koeberg site was 3 818 011 million people in 2005. It is estimated that the present (estimated 2008) cumulative population is approximately 3.8 million, according to a 2.4% growth rate. If the accumulated population is higher, the growth rate of 3.7% can be used especially in certain areas, wards or suburbs. Certain sectors, suburbs, wards or areas might have more popular tourist destinations/nodes and the cumulative population in those sectors may be marginally inflated.

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 26 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

Population Distribution within 5 km Distance Bands around the Koeberg Site (22,5° Grid) up to 80 km (2001)(Graph)

Table 5: Population Distribution within 5 km Distance Bands around the Koeberg Site (22,5° Grid) up to 80 km (2001)(Graph)

Distance N NNW N NNE NE ENE E ESE SE SSE S SSW 0 - 5 km 0 0 79 0 16 32 79 150 1408 1340 0 0 5 -10 km 16 175 95 1270 619 175 127 190 222 3685 29 0 10 - 15 km 79 127 32 54855 1186 271 450 223 1349 1373 0 0 15 - 20 km 34 127 7273 1046 1093 556 587 317 13125 28937 0 0 20 - 25 km 0 67 159 112 1033 1302 621 968 2848 48961 0 32 25 - 30 km 0 113 253 317 1764 222 189 7466 58828 121104 64748 0 30 - 35 km 2063 793 6756 143 12637 445 603 63212 133888 368015 42692 0 35 - 40 km 206 270 302 524 9212 2031 762 3254 137432 313710 56837 0 40 - 45 km 511 14639 302 667 476 778 1635 13570 90052 387634 111164 0 45 - 50 km 111 286 278 851 492 936 8817 69268 103255 289574 30982 0 50 - 55 km 16 223 333 540 4138 2761 125399 18176 41360 35 48038 0 55 - 60 km 48 235 460 728 1477 2175 65 6304 24450 0 4409 0 60 - 65 km 365 159 952 8568 1301 667 573 723 71371 0 252 0 65 - 70 km 889 1472 3266 1047 1078 603 715 7494 16638 0 1 0 70 - 75 km 150 852 619 1571 1500 3518 1440 12 14279 0 36 0 75 - 80 km 127 2576 667 354 12533 7685 1864 1734 17854 72 0 0

Total Maximum Cumulative Population within 5 km Distance Bands around the Koeberg Site (22,5° Grid) up to 80 km (Estimated 20 05) (Graphs)

Table 6: Total Maximum Cumulative Population within 5 km Distance Bands around the Koeberg Site (22,5° Grid) up to 80 km (E stimated 2005) (Graphs)

TOT. CUM. TOTAL NNE NE ENE E ESE SE SSE S SSW POP 2005 0 16 32 79 150 1408 1340 0 0 3104 3334 1270 619 175 127 190 222 3685 29 0 6603 7091 54855 1186 271 450 223 1349 1373 0 0 59945 64379 1046 1093 556 587 317 13125 28937 0 0 53095 57022 112 1033 1302 621 968 2848 48961 0 32 56103 60253 317 1764 222 189 7466 58828 121104 64748 0 255004 273866 143 12637 445 603 63212 133888 368015 42692 0 631247 677939 524 9212 2031 762 3254 137432 313710 56837 0 524540 563339 667 476 778 1635 13570 90052 387634 111164 0 621428 667393 851 492 936 8817 69268 103255 289574 30982 0 504850 542192 540 4138 2761 125399 18176 41360 35 48038 0 241019 258847 728 1477 2175 65 6304 24450 0 4409 0 40351 43336 8568 1301 667 573 723 71371 0 252 0 84931 91213 1047 1078 603 715 7494 16638 0 1 0 33203 35659 1571 1500 3518 1440 12 14279 0 36 0 23977 25751 354 12533 7685 1864 1734 17854 72 0 0 45466 48829

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 27 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

2.3.3.9. Main Results Several conclusions can be drawn from existing information available: • The cumulative population per 22.5-degree sector shows a sharp spike around Atlantis between the distances 10 km and 25 km from Koeberg. The population of Atlantis according to this data is 52 084. • For distances greater than this the population in and around Cape Town dominates the population distribution. • Total population (2005) (excluding tourists) is about 3.8 million within the 80 km radius from KNPS. • Construction staff for the proposed PBMR DPP will affect the domestic and transient population numbers especially in the 0 — 5km and 0 — 20km concentric sector around the Site. This aspect needs to be incorporated into the Emergency Response Plan for the Koeberg KNPS and the proposed PBMR DPP and communicated with the relevant roleplayers (e.g. emergency teams and liaison committees) and become part of the communication actions pursued by the Koeberg KNPS.

There was a maximum population of 3.18 million (census 2001) and a maximum cumulative population of approximately 3.82 million within 80 km annulus of the Koeberg site (estimated 2005). It is projected that there will be a population of approximately 4.1 million in 2008 at a growth rate of 3.7%. The area is very volatile with regard to development and is very favourable for people to settle in.

Table 6: Total Maximum Cumulative Population within 5 km Distance Bands around the Koeberg Site (22,5° Grid) up to 80 km (E stimated 2005) (Graphs)

Area Male Female Total Swartland 7736 6902 14638 Atlantis 25681 28137 53818 City of Cape Town 4141 3833 7974 Melkbosstrand 3171 3349 6520 Milnerton 15834 17173 33007 Pella 529 516 1045 Robben Island 116 58 174 Witsand 1273 1132 2405

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Table 8: Population Age per Suburb within 16 km from the Koeberg Site (2001)

10- 15- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75- 80- Area 0-4 5-9 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 85+ Swartland 1584 1496 1326 1339 1227 1483 1392 1222 1014 794 653 403 272 202 140 46 25 21 Atlantis 5357 5583 6478 6433 4866 4304 4230 4415 3871 2852 2007 1253 901 579 346 180 113 53 City of Cape Town 840 720 724 685 734 816 777 704 535 401 353 251 196 109 66 36 19 7 Melkbosstrand 364 470 513 464 387 382 552 640 639 513 388 365 275 209 145 122 47 37 Milnerton 2299 2117 1974 1992 2256 3281 3722 3155 2791 2158 1869 1550 1240 916 733 498 293 166 Pella 101 122 108 114 88 80 92 89 72 47 37 38 21 12 11 9 3 0 Robben Island 13 12 15 4 13 18 21 24 21 11 12 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 Witsand 290 204 128 140 477 506 234 134 108 71 52 31 14 12 0 0 0 0

2.4. HOUSING

2.4.1. The City of Cape Town context

Housing backlogs and associated infrastructure backlogs can be ascribed to net immigration into the City. New infrastructure is needed to accommodate economic, urban and population growth. There is tremendous strain on the current infrastructure resulting from rapid growth in the urban centre (most acutely felt in services such as water, waste water, electricity, roads and storm water).

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 29 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

Table 9: Dwelling type per Suburb within 16 km from the Koeberg Site (2001)

Area or House brick structure on a separate orstand yard Traditional dwelling/hut/structur ofe made traditional materials Flat offlats block in Town/cluster/semi=d etached house (simplex; duplex; triplex) House/flat/room in back yard Informal dwelling/shack in back yard Informal dwelling/shack NOT in back yard Room/flatlet notin butback yard on propertyshared orCaravan tent Private ship/boat

Swartland 3072 139 25 235 8 15 10 4 3 0

Atlantis 8682 179 1025 157 345 243 21 36 24 3

City of Cape Town 1724 84 31 30 11 53 198 29 22 0

Melkbos- strand 1773 40 206 28 51 6 23 19 22 0

Milnerton 8502 125 1991 1454 167 39 177 47 15 3

Pella 135 43 0 0 3 13 4 0 0 0

Robben Island 78 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0

Witsand 49 4 0 0 0 41 773 0 4 0

Key indicators show that fundamental changes to the development path of the City are being constrained by a number of trends, which are reinforcing social spatial segregation and inequalities in the City. The number of people living in informal settlements is growing (23 000 families in 1993, to 115 000 families in 2005), overcrowding is increasing and household size is declining. These contribute to an increasing housing backlog (an increase from 150 000 in 1998 to approximately 300 000 in 2006).

Discussions with senior officials from the City of Cape Town revealed that no major impact is forseen should a PBMR DPP be constructed at the current Koeberg site. There are a few housing projects underway in the area, phase 1 consist of 400 houses at Atlantis, phase 2 will consist of another 1 600 houses and the last phase will bring the total number of houses of these projects in Atlantis to approximately

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 30 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

3 000. Phase 1 is in its final process, phase 2 and 3 will be implemented over the next five years.

A third housing project is that of 500 houses in extention 12 of Atlantis, that will also be implemented in the next five years.

At Witsand there is one housing project underway, of which the first phase will be 400 houses and a later phase or phases amounting to 1 600 houses.

In Melkbosstrand a housing project of 100 houses is underway that will mainly be occupied by the current residents of Ogies Kraal and Rietbosvlei informal settlements.

Another housing project in Melkbosstrand is that of 100 formal houses for higher income groups.

The Site Contractors shall provide their seconded employees (skilled employees from other areas) employed on the Project with suitable proper accommodation, as well as board and lodging, as per the set requirements and standards

2.4.2. Blaauwberg context

To the south of the Koeberg site, in particular Table View, Parklands, and Blouberg, have experienced the highest population growth rate in the city over the past few years. Population and employment growth along the corridor is projected to exceed 6% per annum in the near future as it has the greatest potential for large-scale growth in the metropolitan area, within the limits of the urban edge. 3

Rapid urbanization and growth are currently experienced in the Blaauwberg area. Development in this area is actively driven by the private sector, mainly in the middle to high-income categories of the population. The fastest growing residential and industrial areas are north of Table View.

There has been a tremendous increase in informal settlements over the past few years within the 16 km zone (an estimated three fold increase from 1998 - 2000). In May 1998, a total of 2 245 shacks were located in Frankdale (28%); Du Noon (10%); Marconi Beam (35%); Welbeloond (Doornbach) (11%) and Witsands (16%). The total housing shortage within the 16 Km zone is approximately 17 600 units.

Due to employment opportunities and insufficient housing in Melkbosstrand, two additional informal settlements namely Ogieskraal and Milkwood Place and Rietvleibos have developed over the last couple of years.

The evidence of population influx as well as the Blaauwberg Spatial Development Framework (2001) indicates densification and population growth in the area of the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station and the proposed PBMR DPP.

While not deemed to be the responsibility of the project proponent and therefore not an inherent component of the proposed Demonstration Module PBMR mitigation plan, it is suggested that the CMC enter into discussions with the Blaauwberg Municipality to negotiate a partial lifting of the existing restrictions adopted in their Spatial Development Framework.

3 KSSR – 2006: PBMR Specialist Background Information CD 10 July 2007/5. ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 31 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

An additional mechanism is related to the potential for the negotiation of a decrease in the existing exclusion zone. However, it is not clear whether this will be considered, given that existing emergency planning zones apply to Koeberg specifically, which is a different class of nuclear reactor with a different exclusion zone.

Map 2 Blaauwberg Spatial Dedvelopment Plan

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 32 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

2.4.3. Atlantis context

The industrial and residential towns of Atlantis form the most significant urban development to the north of KNPS. There is metropolitan growth in the area north of Milnerton (SSE and SE of KNPS). The area immediately north of Table View is exhibiting rapid growth. Residential development in this area is still beyond the 10 km radius of KNPS.

Scattered industries in the form of brickfield sand waste sites also occur in the SE and SSE sectors. Extensions of the industrial areas south of the Diep River characterize the SE sector around the 20 ˚ radius.

The area between the coastline and Atlantis (NNW to NNE) has been identified for possible inclusion in the proposed West Coast Biosphere Reserve.

The West-Coast Corridor (mainly Parklands-East) is the main direction of future development of the Cape Metropole. The Cape Town Housing Department see this direction as to include future residential densification.

2.5. WARD BASED DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

As part of the process of preparing an Integrated Development Plan for the City of Cape Town, ward development plans also receive attention. All wards concerned in the study area of the proposed PBMR site are included in the municipal area of the City of Cape Town. Although planning processes is not limited to the boundaries of wards, they do play an important role from a political point of view because every ward is represented by a ward councilor on the Council of the City of Cape Town. Ward committees play an important role in advising ward councilors about development needs and future planning in the ward. Although the communities living in these wards are not the only people relevant to a proposed PBMR DPP, they do play and important role as part of the immediate local community bordering the proposed PBMR DPP.

The ward based demographic profiles provide valuable information on communities living in them and further to understand the opportunities and constraints present. Economic and social impacts may have a greater impact on them as on other communities in wards further away.

The total population of the five wards involved in the study area as shown in the tables below, was 128 831 according to the census of 2001 by Statistics South Africa. The growth rates for studies done for Nuclear 1 were based on population growth in three categories, namely: low (1.8%), average (2.4%) and high (3.7%). For this study an estimated population growth within the five concerned wards was taken as high, due to the high population growth in the Melkbosstrand and Bloubergstrand areas, where the growth rate was higher than the projected figures.

According to the City of Cape Town, State of the Environment Report (2000), the growth rate for the Tableview, Parklands, Melkbossstrand and Bloubergstrand area were estimated as high as 7.1%. Taken into consideration the large rural areas in the five concerned wards and the other low populated areas within these wards, growth of 3.7% would give a good indication of what the current population in this area could be. A projected figure for 2009 with a growth rate of 3.7% for the five concerned wards will be a population of 172 286.

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 33 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

The tables below were evaluated with figures from the 2001 Census. It is estimated that the percentages of the 2001 figures shown in the tables below would not show a high deviation from any projected figures.

Map 3: Geographical Orientation of Wards

WARD 29

WARD KOEBERG 32

WARD 23

WARD 104

WARD 4

Table 10: Age (Source - Statistics South Africa: Census 2001)

Description Ward 29 Ward 32 Ward 23 Ward 104 Ward 4 0-4 3344 3140 1500 2174 1801 5-9 3417 3241 1425 1667 1672 10-14 3695 3747 1290 1194 1696 15-19 3759 3715 1265 1479 1650 20-24 3144 2983 1524 2771 1812 25-29 2862 2774 2152 3423 2069 30-34 2692 2538 2397 2501 2163 35-39 2659 2614 2075 1719 2051 40-44 2239 2350 1857 1220 1714 45-49 1819 1584 1411 746 1276 50-54 1428 1047 1209 485 1072 55-59 929 654 1046 371 810 60-64 713 445 827 263 621 65-69 444 301 606 166 414 70-74 274 191 476 123 311 75-79 150 103 315 69 254 80 and over 129 83 193 79 220 Total 33697 31510 21568 20450 21606

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 34 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

The above table indicates an evenly spread population distribution in the wards that would be directly influenced by the proposed PBMR. Although ward 29 to the north of the proposed site and ward 32, in which area the proposed site will be situated have approximately 10 000 people more. The table also indicates that the population between the age of 0-54 are the most in all wards, therefore an assumption can be made that the greater part of the population, which will be directly influenced by a proposed PBMR development, is the commercially productive part of the population. The population with ages between 0-14 will not form part of the commercially productive population, but it could be reasoned that due to the higher figures of these age groups they also form part of the greater reproductive population of the wards. Ward 104 is characterised by the age group between 25 to 29, which is higher than the other wards. This could be due to the fact that there are housing schemes in this ward that are affordable for people in this age group.

Table 11: Education Grouped (Source - Statistics South Africa: Census 2001)

Description Ward 29 Ward 32 Ward 23 Ward 104 Ward 4 No schooling 634 775 230 910 269 Some primary 2742 2941 488 2179 1033 Complete primary 2099 1925 177 846 391 Some secondary 9593 8105 2631 4206 3743 Std 10/Grade 12 3753 3303 6360 3611 5727 Higher 661 618 6201 2183 3624 Total 19482 17667 16087 13935 14787

The above table indicates an even spread of education standards of the population in these wards, with the higher figures in wards 29 and 32, due to the higher population numbers in these two wards. Ward 23 stands out with low “no schooling” figures, but with the greater figure on higher education. The assumption could be made that the more professional population is living in the Melkbosstrand and Bloubergstrand area, which falls within ward 23.

Table 12: Education Institutions ( Source - Statistics South Africa: Census 2001)

Description Ward 29 Ward 32 Ward 23 Ward Ward 4 104 None 4708 4745 1637 3922 1833 Pre - school 493 392 387 281 418 School 8533 8233 2911 2663 4091 College 118 107 222 102 183 Technikon 72 60 120 51 123 University 25 46 157 63 150 Adult education 13 19 6 8 6 Other 84 66 22 26 Total 13962 13686 5506 7112 6830

The above table indicates that the population not getting any education is higher in ward 29 and 32, due to reasons such as an average of 10 000 more people per ward. These two wards have the most jobless people and there are informal settlements in these two wards. It is significant that these two wards have the most people attending pre-school and school. This is mainly attributed to the larger portion of the population living in these two wards. More people attending tertiary education ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 35 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment are found in wards 23 and 4, mainly because the higher income population groups are found here.

Table 13: Household Income (Source - Statistics South Africa: Census 2001)

Description Ward Ward 32 Ward 23 Ward 104 Ward 4 29 No income 582 610 452 1688 501 R1 - R4 800 147 191 77 358 117 R4 801 – R 9 600 573 585 217 630 272 R9 601 – R 19 200 1110 1135 358 1161 539 R19 201 - R 38 400 2010 1674 561 738 725 R38 401 - R 76 800 1813 1677 1208 663 1137 R76 801 - R153 600 833 679 1898 815 1429 R153601-R307200 152 135 2131 848 1330 R307201-R614400 16 20 1026 314 584 R614401-R1228800 3 7 210 42 102 R1228801-R2457600 69 40 98 17 67 R2 457 601 , more 42 45 71 18 42 Not Applicable 7 3 20 1 8 Total 7357 6801 8327 7293 6853

Once again, the above table indicates the more productive population, when referring to population figures as well as higher income groups, as ward 23. This ward includes the Melkbosstrand and Bloubergstrand settlements. The table indicate that ward 29 have a larger group of the population in the R 9 601 to R 76 800 income. This is attributed to the population living in the Atlantis settlement. Ward 4, which is a very small ward compared to the others, indicates a higher percentage income per population, between R 38 401 to R 307 200. The rest of the figures in this table show an even spread.

Table 14: Industry ( Source - Statistics South Africa: Census 2001)

Description Ward 29 Ward 32 Ward 23 Ward 104 Ward 4 Agric relate work 343 572 285 213 150 Mining, Quarrying 14 24 57 54 41 Manufacturing 3766 3881 1488 948 1414 Elec,gas,water 161 236 356 61 81 Construction 552 523 502 902 470 Wholesale, Retail 1544 1343 1979 1387 1814 Transport, Comm 318 243 588 385 496 Business Services 668 616 2314 1116 1828 Community Services 1437 1113 1923 1061 1823 Private Household 335 318 384 554 318 Undetermined 1209 986 1068 966 915 ExtraTerrit Orgs 3 0 0 0 0 Rep Foreign Gov 0 0 0 0 6 Total 10350 9855 10944 7647 9356

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 36 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

The above table indicates higher manufacturing institutions in ward 29 and 32 and business services in ward 23. This correlates in the first instance with industries in the Atlantis area to the north and the latter instance with businesses to the south in the Melkbosstrand/Blouberstrand area. Higher wholesale/retail and community services institutions are found in ward 23 and 4. This is an indication of higher income groups living in these wards.

Table 15: Mode of Transport (Source - Statistics South Africa: Census 2001)

Description Ward 29 Ward 32 Ward 23 Ward 104 Ward 4 Not applicable 13556 12196 7034 9562 7367 On foot 8818 10476 1072 2711 2905 Bicycle 70 113 143 205 116 Motorcycle 41 40 115 105 102 Car as a driver 1305 985 8151 3279 5650 Car passenger 1879 1563 3730 2144 3000 Minibus/taxi 4522 3736 315 1740 1591 Bus 3122 2219 836 528 634 Train 78 17 37 76 152 Other (Transportation) 306 164 133 100 89

Total 33697 31509 21566 20450 21606

According to the above table, there is a substancial group of the population in the “not applicable” row. The only plausable explanation for this is that these people are jobless. If that is the case one can assume that the mode of transport for these people would be the next row, which is “on foot”. The other highly used forms of transportation are that of minibus/taxi and bus in wards 29 and 32. Transportation by car and car passenger is higher in wards 23, 104 and 4 due to the higher income groups in these wards.

Table 16: Occupation (Source - Statistics South Africa: Census 2001)

Description Ward 29 Ward 32 Ward 23 Ward Ward 4 104 Senior Officials 287 238 1926 834 1342 Professionals 193 196 2275 768 1440 Tech/Assoc Prof 826 695 1762 852 1342 Clerks 1467 1007 1307 814 1317 Service workers 763 749 1273 742 1165 Skilled agric work 79 223 87 102 98 Other 1729 1664 478 911 685 Elementary occup 2295 2612 848 1732 1023 Occupations NEC 839 650 840 559 621 Plant Operators 1870 1819 149 333 322 Total 10348 9853 10945 7647 9355

The above table indicates that the grouping of senior officials, professionals, technical and associated professionals is higher in wards 23 and 4, due to the higher income groups living in these wards. Plant workers are more in wards 29 and 32, which is close to Koeberg and Atlantis. Elementary occupational workers are more in wards 29 and 32, due to the lower income populations groups in these wards.

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 37 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

Table 17: Personal Income (Source - Statistics South Africa: Census 2001)

Description Ward 29 Ward 32 Ward 23 Ward Ward 4 104 No income 20131 18599 8299 11792 10290 R1 - R400 782 893 396 742 415 R401 - R800 3028 3245 786 1255 963 R801 - R1 600 3999 3812 1113 2013 1658 R1 601 – R3 200 3868 3400 1747 1011 1949 R3 201 – R6 400 1377 1084 3095 1449 2577 R6 401 – R12 800 298 271 3135 1252 2058 R12 801 - R25 600 29 26 2075 736 1209 R25 601 - R51 200 10 13 609 133 304 R51 201 - R102 400 3 10 154 35 67 R102401-R204800 173 157 96 24 81 R204 801 or more 0 0 61 9 35 Total 33698 31510 21566 20451 21606

In the above table, the obvious issue is that the lower income groups are mainly found in wards 29 and 32 and the higher income groups in wards 23, 104 and 4. A correlation can be drawn between population with no income, population with no mode of transport or transport by foot, household income, occupation, industry and level of education.

Table 18: Population Grouped ( Source - Statistics South Africa: Census 2001)

Description Ward 29 Ward 32 Ward 23 Ward 104 Ward 4 Black African 830 3215 1288 12551 6142 Coloured 32599 27581 1574 1336 2439 Indian or Asian 172 121 215 125 301 White 96 592 18490 6439 12723 Total 33697 31509 21567 20451 21605

The above table indicates the majority of the black population is found in wards 104 and 4, coloured population in wards 29 and 32 and white population in wards 23, 104 and 4. This could be explained by settlement patterns, historic settlements, mode of transport and job opportunities

Table 19: Work Status (Source - Statistics South Africa: Census 2001)

Description Ward 29 Ward 32 Ward 23 Ward 104 Ward 4 Paid employee 9631 8853 8277 6416 7427 Paid family worker 294 559 150 79 133 Self-employed 298 335 2306 699 1614 Employer 28 50 173 418 147 Unpaid worker 97 55 41 36 34 Not applicable 11993 10923 4942 7367 5983 Total 22341 20775 15889 15015 15338

The above table indicates that salary workers are evenly spread amongst all five wards. The greater part of the population without work is mainly found in wards 29

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 38 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment and 32. The self-employed population is mainly found in wards 23, 104 and 4. These figures could be correlated with all the other tables.

Table 20: Tenure Status (Source - Statistics South Africa: Census 2001)

Description Ward 29 Ward 32 Ward 23 Ward 104 Ward 4 Owned, Fully Paid 2940 1050 2234 1530 1784 Owned, Not Paid 2629 3469 3110 1940 2974 Rented 1573 1347 2324 1045 1330 Occupied rent-free 178 891 543 2711 580 Not applicable 40 47 119 70 189 Total 7360 6804 8330 7296 6857

The above table indicates that the tenure status for owned, fully paid and owned not paid are evenly spread amongst the five concerned wards. Rented tenure is higher in ward 23 and occupied rent-free higher in ward 104.

Table 21: Employment Status (Source - Statistics South Africa: Census 2001)

Description Ward 29 Ward 32 Ward 23 Ward 104 Ward 4 Employed 10347 9853 10946 7647 9355 Unemployed 4311 4293 743 4491 1583 Not Econom Active 7681 6630 4199 2876 4399 Total 22339 20776 15888 15014 15337

The above table indicates that the employed population is evenly spread between the five concerned wards. Unemployment is not high in ward 23 whilst the economically active population is the lowest in ward 104.

Civil Institutions

Table 22 contains information on the various civil institutions that are located in the area of the Duynefontein site. This information was collected from the City of Cape Town’s Planning Districts Socio-economic Analysis. Data was also collected from the Cape Town map book produced by Map Studio. Unfortunately, data on civil institutions was very limited for the City of Cape Town. Thus, this may not be a true reflection of all the civil institutions. Indicating the locality of these institutions in a geographical format would be possible if all information is available electronically to transfer to a GIS format. Unfortunately, due to time constraints and limited (electronic and other) data, this is not possible at present.

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 39 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

Table 22: Civil Institutions in the Region of Duynefontein (West Coast)

Hotel 7 Clinic 6 Hospital 5 Shopping mall 29 Post office 6 Law court 1 School 31 Service station 21 Religious site 9 Library 6 Caravan park 2 Police station 2 Fire station 3 Traffic department 1 Railway station 2 Water treatment works 3 Country club 2 Airfield 1 Refinery 1 Cement factory 1 Guest cottage/conference centre 1 Bus terminal 1 Wine estate 5 Total 146

2.6. Economic outlook On a macro-economic impact level for South Africa, the macro-economic study done by the Conningarth Economists indicates that the construction of the demonstration power plant (DPP) will have a positive impact on all of the macro-economic performance indicators (such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), capital utilisation and employment). The direct project cost relating to the demonstration power plant and pilot fuel plant, amounts to some R16 billion in June 2006 real terms.

The study calculated that the incremental impact of the construction of the PBMR on the country’s GDP is estimated at approximately R3,8 billion per annum (in constant 2006 prices), and R3,5 billion per annum for a single multi module (MM). In total, this amounts to approximately R7,3 billion which is almost 0,44% of the national GDP of South Africa for 2006. This is a considerable GDP contribution for a single project and is likely to be significantly larger once the impact of a single MM has been adjusted to reflect the impacts associated with future MMs.

The total impact on capital utilisation (the level of capital required, on an annual basis, to sustain the production of the DPP) amounts to approximately R7,9 billion per annum. This level of capital equipment (including machines and buildings), will have to be available on an annual basis to ensure that the reactors can be produced. It therefore does not necessarily imply fresh capital investment. In addition, for as long as the reactors are in production, the capital cannot be put to any other use.

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 40 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

Over and above the effect on GDP, capital utilisation and employment, Conningarth Economists estimate that government revenue will increase by approximately R977 million per annum as a result of construction of the PBMR DPP. It is also estimated that the positive impact on the balance of payments will amount to approximately R1,75 billion to R1,84 billion per annum.

According to Eskom, the PBMR Company contracted TLG Services Inc. in September 2005 to provide a study to determine the decommissioning cost of the PBMR DPP. The result of the study was that it would cost R1 508.79 million (including spent fuel management costs) based on 2005 rand values. It is important to note that the PBMR DPP spent fuel management plan and the costing thereof are currently under review. (Specialist Study: Financial Aspects Feb 2008)

The total impact on low-income households is estimated at R600 million per annum for the PBMR DPP. Of the total household income generated by the payment of salaries and wages to employees almost 21% will be destined for lower income households. This will contribute significantly towards poverty alleviation and the overall upliftment of the poor in South Africa.

• Western Cape Province

The Western Cape continues its strong economic growth performance. In 2004 the Provincial economy expanded by 5,3% in real terms, compared to 4,5% for SA. Strong Provincial performance continued in 2005 with estimated regional gross domestic product (GDPR) rising to around 5 % in real terms. 4

The second largest contributor to total investment in the Western Cape is the accommodation sub-sector, which traditionally tends to be a top performer in terms of attracting investment. Investment in accommodation ranges from luxury boutique hotels to guest lodges and bed and breakfast type accommodation. As evidenced in the Table 23, all top 10 sub-sectors for investment are service-based industries, again confirming that the Western Cape’s investment trends are in accordance with both national and international trends.

Top 10 Sub-sectors of Investment 5

Table 23: Top 10 Sub-sectors of Investment

Sub-sector Investment % Share of total investment Film & media 433,217,551 46% Accommodation 254,122,115 27% Biotechnology 44,000,000 5% Medical and Dental and Veterinary Services 31,620,000 3% Tourism 31,231,906 3% Catering 29,326,900 3% Business Services – Other 13,835 916 1% Clothing & Textile 13,697,958 1% Property Development & Construction 11,076,876 1% ICT 10,850,644 1%

4 Western Cape Provincial Economic Review and Outlook – Oktober 2006 5 Source: Wesgro 2006/07 ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 41 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

The 20km radius around Duynefontein includes small, rather than large industries, but these industries are not clustered with the exception of those at Atlantis. Large industry is located mainly outside this radius in areas such as Epping.

The Chevron (Caltex) oil refinery and four cement companies dominate the industrial sector within a 20km radius of the proposed PBMR DPP.

The Chevron refinery produces 74 000 barrels of refined product per day and employs 390 personel. In addition, there are 800-900 contractors at any one time, rising to 2 000 during the six- week biennial turnaround. The cement industry estimates its production in the area at 2 million tons of aggregate and about 120 000 m3 of cement per annum. The turnover is estimated at between R300-350 million per annum and total permanent employment at 150. (Draft EIR, August 2008)

Figure 1 provides an indication of the sectoral composition of the economy around Koeberg NPS.

According to Maasdorp (2007b) and the department of planning and economic development in the Cape Town Metropolitan Municipality, the only path for Cape Town to grow is north, along the West Coast. Rapid growth is already occurring along the N7. The department believes that, within 10 years, development will have reached the southern border of Melkbosstrand, and within a further 10 years, it will be in line with the current Koeberg NPS.

Closer to Koeberg NPS the drivers of the Melkbosstrand economy are residential sales. There are a handful of shops and convenience stores. By contrast, there are roughly 15 estate agents. Melkbosstrand is mainly a residential area, with some tourism occurring in December.

Figure 2: Economic sectoral composition associated with the area surrounding the Duynefontein site (Dippenaar, 2007)

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 42 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

Maasdorp (2007b) identified the following local Authorities as part of the economic impacted region: ••• Cape Town Metropolitan Municipality - It is accepted that the Metropole will be a major supplier of goods and services during the construction phase and will therefore be a beneficiary of the process; ••• Saldanha Bay Local Municipality - Saldanha Bay has good infrastructure with a modern port. The possibility exists that, if Duynefontein is selected as the preferred site, it could benefit, particularly during the construction phase; and ••• Swartland District Municipality - If Duynefontein is selected, the area can benefit from improved road infrastructure and other services.

••• Trade industry After two years of disappointing export growth resulting from the strong Rand, Western Cape exports picked up in 2005 to R37.9 billion as exporters became accustomed to trading at the higher exchange rate. In real terms, exports grew 11.9 % between 2004 and 2005 and about 4.12 % on average annually since 2001. In 2005 exports also made one of its highest contributions ever to the Western Cape regional GDP at 22.4 %. This is an indication of the province’s increasing integration into the global economy.

Imports grew at a much faster rate over the past five years at an average of 12.54 % in real terms, taking advantage of greater affordability because of the stronger currency. In 2005 imports into the Western Cape almost doubled exports at R70.1 billion. Much of the imports were labour intensive consumer goods, capital goods and inputs for production.

The total Western Cape exports in 2005 reached R37.9 billion, growing by just below 12% in real terms since 2004. As with previous years, leading exports included refined petroleum products, wine, fruit, fish and seafood products, iron, and steel products. The province’s top export markets in 2005 were the United Kingdom (UK), United States (US), Netherlands, Belgium and Mozambique. See Table 24 below.

Western Cape Trade Flows, 2000-2004

Table 24: Western Cape Trade Flows, 2000-2004

2001 2004 2005 Average Real Rbn US$ Rbn US$bn Rbn US$bn Annual Average bn Growth Annual 2001- Growth 2005 2001- (%) 2005 (%) Total 24.49 2.84 31.47 4.88 37.94 5.97 13.53 4.12 Exports Total 42.66 4.95 56.34 8.73 70.13 11.03 14.16 12.54 Imports Trade -18.17 -2.11 -24.87 -3.85 - -5.06 Balance 32.19

••• Agriculture industry Agriculture accounts for about 3% of the Western Cape’s economic activity and about 17% of the province’s exports. Fruits constitute the majority of the Western

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 43 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

Cape’s agricultural exports and grapes, oranges and apples in turn dominate this sector. The province’s top fruit exports are mainly destined for the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, from which they are traded for consumption within other countries in the European Union.

The more dynamic agricultural exports depict a very different picture with rapidly growing exports starting from a low base. Most of these dynamic products are exported to other African countries and Asia. These products include smaller niche goods such as sunflower seeds, dates and green tea.

As a result of the limited potential of the soil, there is little agricultural production of significance within the 5 km radius of KNPS. The 5 - 7.5 km band reflects the first intensive agricultural use between the NE and SSE sectors. Cultivated land is dominant in this area with wheat, fodder crops and dairy farming. There is considerable chicken farming activity in the NE sector.

The most fertile land is in the 10-16 km band. Well-established wheat farms and accompanying high production of fodder crops characterizes the ENE and ESE sectors. Some of the farmers also have a well-established dairy component.

The small holdings of Klein Dassenberg characterize the NE sector. This area shows more specialized farming activities that include bee farming, vegetables, chicken and egg production, stud-farming and dairy farming. Some viticulture is also undertaken. The only significant vegetable production (mainly potatoes) occurs in this sector.

As a result of urban development and the proximity to the sea, there is a decrease in agriculture towards the south. Most of the land north of Table View is owned by property development companies and is destined for future urban development.

The land north of KNPS was reserved for the Atlantis project but urban growth did not occur on the scale expected. The nature of the soil precludes its use for extensive agricultural activities. The latest proposal is for the inclusion of this land into the proposed West Coast Biosphere Reserve.

••• Fishing Industry In 2005 fishing, exports from the Western Cape totaled almost R3 billion, growing by just below 6% on average between 2001 and 2005. Exports declined in 2003 and 2004 to grow steadily in 2005 by just under 40%. Lobster and frozen fish fillets led the fishing industry exports. The industry itself has been facing challenges in recent years due to depleting fish stocks and the resultant impacts on the West Coast fishing communities. Leading markets for the fishing industry include Japan, USA and Spain.

The Eskom NPS site at Koeberg and Duynefontein is not in a major commercial fishing area. Sardine trawlers operate just outside the 2km x 3.2km exclusion zone (and sometimes in fact enter the zone) while ski boat anglers catch snoek and rock lobster.

••• Food and beverages Food and beverages were valued at R10.3 billion in 2005 accounting for about 27 % of the Western Cape exports; the largest share in terms of sector contributions to exports. This strength demonstrates the link between the Western Cape’s agribusiness sector and global markets. The wine industry was also among those to ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 44 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment best cope under the pressures of currency volatility. Agricultural products dominant food and beverage products such as wine, juice and preserved fruit are largely exported to established markets such as the UK.

••• Food distribution and processing The distribution of dairy products is closely related to the urban concentrations, with most towns in the area having collection/ distribution depots. Distributors within the industrial areas supply the metropolitan area.

The large depots for wheat are located mainly in the larger towns of the wheat growing area and at various stations along the railway lines that serve the area. Major distribution points for the milled product are concentrated in the town of Malmesbury and the industrial metropolitan areas.

Fresh fruit depots are found at Cape Town harbour (export), the municipal markets in Cape Town and at the Spoornet stations in the surrounding towns. Depots for the dried fruit industry are confined to Wellington, Worcester and Wolseley. The canning industries are found in the outlying towns closer to the fruit producing areas.

Chicken and egg production is spread over the surrounding rural areas with large farms well separated for disease control purposes. The main collection and distribution points are centered in the industrial areas of Cape Town and Bellville.

The Municipal abattoir in Maitland is by far the largest distribution point for carcasses in the metropolitan area. The Roelcor abattoir in Malmesbury is a major distribution point for the Swartland area. Processing and distribution points are concentrated in the industrial metropolitan areas.

••• Clothing and textiles industry The Western Cape’s clothing and textiles sector has arguably been the hardest hit by recent changes in international trade regulations and currency fluctuations. Exports from the sector grew by a meager 0.06 % in the five years leading up to 2005, experiencing massive declines in exports particularly in 2003 and 2004. The strengthening of the Rand in 2003 and the end of the Multi Faber Agreement (MFA) eroded the gains of an advantageous Rand and the preferential market access granted to the US market through the Africa Gross Opportunity Act (AGOA).

That said, exports of industrial textiles are still important with the most significant markets in South and South-East Asia. Here, the textiles are used as manufacturing inputs. In 2005, some clothing exports to the USA were still significant.

••• Atlantis Industrial Area (10 km NNE)

The Atlantis industrial area consists of 1 067 ha of land which may be developed, of which 503 ha is currently still undeveloped. Within the first decade after its establishment the industrial area showed a growth of 1,3 ha per year. However, this growth pattern has slowed down in recent years after the initial large companies from the area relocated closer to the Cape Metropolitan Area. Currently Atlantis Foundaries represents the largest industry in the area, after it bought out Atlantis Diesel Engines. Bokomo Foods operates two factories there. These preceded the construction of the Koeberg NPS. Bokomo employs 800 personnel and has plans for expansion at Atlantis. Other activities in the area include textiles, paper and packaging, engineering services, wholesale and chinaware. Other industrial facilities include the Ankerlig Power Station. With the closure of a number of industries due to ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 45 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment the withdrawal of incentives, serviced land at Atlantis is available at a reasonable price and the Chamber of Commerce is attempting to promote the location.

Although Atlantis was an artificial growth point and has not been an ideal location for industry, its appeal is likely to increase as the Cape Town metro region expands northwards.

The Atlantis Corridor Growth Management Plan (2000) is directed at stimulating and guiding growth along the northern corridor between Blaauwberg and Atlantis. The Blaauwberg Spatial Development Framework (2001) indicates that the well- established industrial development along Koeberg Road in the south has created the demand for additional industrial development opportunities to locate on this northern corridor. Further, the development of the corridor is seen as an opportunity to stimulate the industrial area of Atlantis over the medium to longer term. Given the over-supply of low-priced land, which has been the catalyst for proposals and developments with regards to business/residential activity, a good transport infrastructure, nearby supplies of semi-skilled and unskilled labour and a few catalytic existing industries in place, the Atlantis area could move on a steady expansion path of between 3 and 8% employee growth per annum.

To the south of the Koeberg site, in particular Table View, Parklands, and Blouberg, the highest population growth rate in the city has been experienced over the past few years. Population and employment growth along the corridor is projected to exceed 6% per annum in the near future as it has the greatest potential for large-scale growth in the metropolitan area, within the limits of the urban edge.

Industrial enterprises currently employ 14.82 employees per hectare and commercial enterprises employ 7.15 employees per hectare in the Atlantis industrial area.

••• Doornbach Industrial Area (18 km SSE) The planned Doornbach industrial area comprises 38 ha of developable land within the 55 ha site. It is located next to the Potsdam Road opposite the Du Noon with the Atlantis railway line forming its southern boundary.

••• Mamre A small site of 3.6 ha is reserved for light industrial purposes. The site consists of 51 erven, which are undeveloped at this stage.

••• Scattered industries The main source of building material in the City of Cape Town (CCT) comes from three active quarries in the northwest Tygerberg region. South of Dassenberg Road there are sand quarrying activities, which are managed by Atlantis Foundries. Kilson Lime Works is located along the coastal stretch between Melkbosstrand and Blaauwberg. Claybrick enterprises run their brickworks at Vissershoek (13.5 km SE). This is also the site for the Cape Town city councils evaporation depot and the Waste Tech Treatment works. Other brick works are dispersed through the area north of the Tygerberg hills and at Fisantekraal in Durbanville.

••• Blaauwberg area While Blaauwberg contributes 4.6% to the total population of the Cape Metropolitan area, its economic output is estimated at 5.3% and formal employment opportunities 5.2%. The largest contributor to the gross regional product (GRP) of the area is industry, retailing/ business services and tourism/ recreation.

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 46 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

These are seen as main growth areas in adding value and creating employment opportunities. Construction, transport and energy have also been identified as playing an important role, with the fishing sector only adding marginal value, except for recreational purposes.

••• City of Cape Town Cape Town has a relatively diverse economy with approximately 93% of businesses being small, contributing 50% of total output and 40% of total formal employment. However, there is a shift towards the services sector with the largest areas of growth being identified in finance, business services, trade, catering, accommodation, tourism and transport and communications. Manufacturing, which accounts for 19.4% of employment is declining. Unemployment has remained high at 20.7% (2005), but it appears that the trend has been for unemployment to decrease since 2003. (Draft Economic Impact Report Nuclear 1 August 2008)

The City of Cape Town contributes 11% to South Africa's GDP and 75% to the Western Cape's economy. Its economy has, on average, grown faster than the national economy by almost 1% between 1991 and 2000.

Twenty-six (26%) percent of all households lived below the household subsistence level in Cape Town in 1999. In 1996, the estimate was 21%, which in the same year was lower than the 29% for Johannesburg and Durban and 47% for South Africa as a whole.

The performance of the economic sectors measured by percentage contribution to real Gross Geographical Product (GGP) for Cape Town is as follows. The manufacturing sector makes the largest contribution (25%) followed by trade (23%); finance (19%); services (17%); transport (9%); construction (4%) and other (3%).

The per capita income in 1999 was almost twice as high in CCT as nationally. According to the 1996 census figures, the median income per annum for whites is R48 000, for Asians it is R24 000; for Coloureds it is R15 000 and R4 200 for Africans.

3. OVERVIEW OF POLICY AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK

At a national level, there is no single unified socio -economic development or planning policy relevant to socio-economic inputs to EIA processes. In a very broad sense, one can say that the key socio-economic priority is poverty alleviation through job creation, following a free market system and targeted government intervention. This priority is reflected in the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) and the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) Strategy and also by the Accelerated Shared Growth Initiatives of South Africa (ASGISA) strategy.

It is also shared by inter-governmental bodies such as the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) secretariat and a number of government departments within their own policies. These include the policies of departments that are more narrowly focused on supporting economic development through the initiation, support and regulation of projects on the ground.

The legislative framework provides specific boundaries that impact on the socio- economic issues within communities. The intention of this legislative framework is to create a conducive environment for development in order to ensure an acceptable standard of live and quality of life amongst communities. ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 47 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

The envisaged PBMR project is of National, Provincial and Local relevance and importance. Therefore it is imperative to take into consideration the legislative framework, planning policies, guidelines and regulations from all of these spheres in the screening, scoping and assessment phases of this specialist study.

A specialist section in the Environmental Impact Report, called “Planning and Legislative context”, describes in detail the planning and legislative framework that is relevant to the proposed development of the PBMR DPP.

3.1. National Policies, Strategies and Legislation

• Nuclear Energy Policy and Strategy for the Republic of South Africa The Nuclear Energy Policy and Strategy for the Republic of South Africa (DME, 2007) represents South Africa’s vision for the coordinated development of the nuclear energy sector.

The document provides a policy position, which clearly indicates the South African Government’s intention to actively pursue nuclear energy over the next two decades. The following rationale for the pursuance of nuclear energy are provided in the document:

- South Africa has sizeable uranium reserves and a vibrant mining industry; - The extraction of uranium ore does not present any major challenges; - Value addition in the form of beneficiation of uranium ore and the implementation of a strong nuclear energy programme would lead to job creation and the development of a skilled workforce; - A solid regulatory framework, which would facilitate a structured development of the nuclear sector, already exists in South Africa; and - South Africa has good non-proliferation policy credentials and as such, pursuit of a peaceful nuclear energy programme can be done within national and international nuclear non-proliferation obligations.

The policy indicates that these principles will guide the South African Government’s vision for nuclear energy. The PBMR DPP is not in conflict with any of these principles.

Section 6.4 of the policy refers to the development of the PBMR DPP as a component of the South African Nuclear Energy Programme. Eskom is recognised in section 6.3 of the document as the institution in which the country’s management, operation and maintenance of nuclear power plant expertise resides. Fifteen (15) policy principles are identified in section 7 of the document.

The policy gives direction for any nuclear development project. The PBMR development should contribute to the country’s social and economic transformation and support growth and development and should align itself with these objectives.

• White Paper on the Energy Policy of the Republic of South Africa In order to achieve a balance between energy demand and resource availability, the Energy Policy identifies the need to undertake an Integrated Energy Planning process, while also taking into account health, safety and environmental parameters. The need for the implementation of a National Integrated Resource Plan (NIRP) is also identified in the Energy Policy.

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 48 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

This approach would provide a long-term cost-effective strategy for meeting the electricity demand that is consistent with reliable electricity supply and environmental, social and economic policies.

• Radioactive Waste Management Policy and Strategy The purpose is to ensure the establishment of a comprehensive radioactive waste governance framework by formulating, additional to nuclear and other applicable legislation, a policy and implementation strategy in consultation with all stakeholders.

Implications for PBMR DPP The policy provides for a coordinated and cooperative approach to the management of radioactive waste from nuclear facilities such as the PBMR DPP and radioactive waste from the mining, industrial, medical, commercial, agricultural, educational and defense sectors.

• Nuclear Governance The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has unique statutory responsibilities within the United Nations (UN) family for establishing standards for protecting people and the environment from harmful effects of ionising radiation and for the safety of facilities and activities that give rise to radiation risks.

Regulating nuclear and radiation safety is a national responsibility, and many Member States, including South Africa, have decided to adopt the IAEA’s safety standards for use in their national regulations.

Implications for PBMR DPP

The DEAT, the lead authority on environmental matters, and NNR have agreed to work in close collaboration on the assessment of nuclear related matters associated with the PBMR DPP.

• Integrated Energy Plan The Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) was commissioned by the DME during 2003 to provide a framework in which specific energy policies, development decisions and energy supply trade-offs can be made on a project-by-project basis. The intention of the IEP is to create a balance in providing affordable electricity to assist social and economic development and to ensure a security of supply and the minimization of associated environmental impacts.

Implications for PBMR DPP

Section 6 of the IEP contains information of relevance to this project. This information is summarised below.

Diversification It is important to diversify energy resources to other energy forms such as natural gas and renewable energies to improve supply security, improve environmental performance and facilitate regional development. The associated cost implications of these alternative energy sources must be traded off against other benefits on a project-by-project basis.

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 49 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

Nuclear In order to determine if the PBMR could be a viable future source of electricity generation, various technical and economic feasibility studies must be completed. Additionally, the possible beneficial role that the PBMR could play in the diversification of supply, replacement of fossil fuel as its use diminishes, contribution to the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, and the possibility of establishing a nuclear export industry must also be determined.

Electricity Generation While coal based electricity production is the most cost effective option, there is potential for hydro, natural gas and nuclear electricity generation. These alternatives to coal will have associated cost implications, however, a trade-off for these costs can be made against other benefits on a project-by-project basis.

• National Integrated Resource Plan (NIRP) In order to address electricity demand and supply scenarios, the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) developed a National Integrated Resource Plan (NIRP) in accordance with the Energy Policy. The objective of the NIRP is to provide information to market participants on opportunities for investment in new power stations, determine the least cost supply options and evaluate the security of supply.

Implications for PBMR DPP

The PBMR is included in the NIRP2 (One of two plans that was published) as one of the new supply options. The technology is also identified as one of the technologies that is being researched and considered in the screening curve analysis for . additional “peaking electricity generating capacity” and “base load electricity generating capacity” from 2006 and 2012 respectively.

• Energy Efficiency Strategy of the Republic of South Africa The vision of the DME Energy Efficiency Strategy (2005) is to contribute towards affordable energy for all, and to minimise the negative effects of energy usage upon human health and the environment.

Implications for PBMR DPP

The strategy includes an energy efficiency target of a reduction in final energy demand of 12% by 2015. A PBMR DPP would certainly contribute to a cost effective, safer and cleaner energy operation in line with the goals of the strategy.

• Energy Security Master Plan – Electricity (2007-2025) The Electricity Master Plan was compiled by the DME. The plan addresses all aspects of the electricity sector including generation, transmission and distribution as well as Demand Side Management and energy efficiency initiatives for the period 2007-2025.

Implications for PBMR DPP

The Master Plan identifies nuclear energy as a viable alternative to coal in that it would diversify the primary energy sources currently in use in South Africa and would lead to a significant reduction in greenhouse gases. The PBMR project is specifically referred to in Section 5 of the Master Plan where it is recognised that the full extent of implementation of the project can only be determined once certain milestones proving the technical and commercial viability of the technology have been achieved. ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 50 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

• National Nuclear Disaster Management Plan The objective of the Plan is to prevent both early (e.g. vomiting, cataracts, sterility) and late (e.g. cancer and hereditary defects) health effects arising from exposure to radiation by implementing protective actions before the dose levels at which early health effects become evident are accrued by members of the public.

Implications for PBMR DPP

The Plan focuses on nuclear disaster management at the national government level and is applicable to any radiological emergency because of exposure to radioactivity in the following areas:

-Nuclear Reactors and other Nuclear Fuel Cycle facilities requiring nuclear emergency plans; -Nuclear powered vessels; -Transport of radioactive material within the nuclear fuel cycle (air, land and sea); -Radioactive contamination from nuclear powered satellites; and -Radioactive fallout from nuclear weapons.

Therefore any disaster within the PBMR DPP, Duynefontein would fall under the National Nuclear Disaster Management Plan.

• The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and domestic implementation arrangements 4 The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, also known as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is an international legal instrument (in the form of a treaty) that is aimed at limiting the spread of nuclear weapons and opened for signature on 1 July 1968. South Africa is a signatory to this Treaty, having acceded to it on 10 July 1991

• National Spatial Biodiversity Assessment (“NSBA”) The NSBA establishes protection and conservation priority status for terrestrial, inland water, estuarine and marine ecosystems at a 1:250,000 scale nationally and suggested implementation options for priority areas. PBMR development should keep protection and conservation targets in mind whenever developing a project.

• National Biodiversity Strategy Action Plan (NBSAP) This document provides a strategy for including biodiversity management objectives into the economy, sustainable use of biological resources and the maintenance of key ecological processes across the landscape and seascape.

Implications for PBMR DPP

The PBMR DPP focuses on utilizing a non-fossil based resource, and in so doing could assist in reducing stress on existing resources and the ecosystems of which they form a part. The PBMR DPP shall also adhere to the EMP developed for its construction and operation.

• Draft National Strategy for Sustainable Development18 This Strategy stems from Section 24 (b) of the Constitution and particularly the phrase “secure ecologically sustainable development and use of natural resources while promoting justifiable economic and social development”.

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 51 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

Implications for PBMR DPP

The PBMR DPP could be a justifiable economic development that will have positive influence on social development. Uranium, which is a natural asset/resource could be utilized in a sustainable fashion. This should be tested and debated through the EIA process.

Eskom is particularly interested in the PBMR plant, since it is regarded as a so-called Generation IV plant. The Generation IV International Forum (GIF) defines Generation IV plants as those reaching the objectives of improved nuclear safety, improved proliferation resistance, minimized waste and natural resource utilisation and decreased cost to build and run such plants.

• Constitution of the Republic of South Africa (Act 108 of 1996) Chapter 2, the Bill of Rights, enshrines the rights of all people in the country and affirms the democratic values of human dignity, equality and freedom. These rights represent the cornerstone of democracy in South Africa. Key rights in the Bill that have a bearing on social rights and issues include: The right to life, human dignity, equality, environment, property, healthcare, food, water, social security, language, culture, access to information and justice.

Implications for PBMR DPP

The public’s right to information especially information on issues like nuclear waste and radiation should be respected. This information covers issues that are potentially life threatening. The public has the right to question and to influence proposed developments like the PBMR DPP.

• National Environmental Management (Act 107 of 1998) The preamble to NEMA and the principles contained therein have a significant bearing on the need to identify and assess social impacts. In this regard the preamble refers to a number of the basic rights set out in Chapter 2 (Bill of Rights) of the Constitution. These include reference to the right of all persons to an environment that is not harmful to his or her health or well-being, and the need for the State to respect, protect, promote and fulfill the social, economic and environmental rights of everyone.

Implications for PBMR DPP

The PBMR DPP will be constructed, operated and decommissioned according to the Nuclear and Environmental Management Policies and Systems that apply to it. The PBMR DPP will adhere to the Environmental Management Plan (EMP) developed for its construction and operation.

• National Water Act (Act 36 of 1998) The fundamental principles of the NWA recognises that sustainability and equity are central guiding principles in the protection, use, development, conservation, management and control of South Africa’s water resources.

• Promotion of Administrative Justice Act (Act 3 of 2000) The purpose of the Promotion of Administrative Justice Act (“PAJA”) is principally to give effect to the right to administrative action that is lawful, reasonable and procedurally fair; and to the right to written reasons for administrative action as

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 52 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment contemplated in section 33 of the Constitution; and to provide for matters incidental thereto.

Implications for PBMR DPP

The PBMR EIA process in itself is a tool that is utilised to ensure that impacts on the environment and on people’s rights are anticipated. Where a specialist study identified a negative impact, mitigation measures have been proposed in order to either prevent or minimise the impact.

• The Promotion of Access to Information Act, 2000 (Act No. 2 of 2000) Closely linked to the notion of administrative justice is the right of access to information. Without access to information, a person may be unable to determine whether or not his or her right to just administrative action (or to any Constitutional right) has been infringed.

In addition to providing access to information, cognisance should be taken that PAIA also makes provision for the refusal of access to information that is deemed to be of a sensitive, confidential or classified nature. This is captured under Chapter 4 of part 2 and 3 of PAIA.

Implications for PBMR DPP

The EIA process in itself is an information tool that is utilised to ensure that impacts on people’s rights are anticipated. Where a specialist study identified a negative impact, mitigation measures have been proposed in order to either prevent or minimise the impact.

• Development Facilitation Act (Act 67 of 1995) In a very broad sense, one can say that the key economic priority is poverty alleviation through job creation, following a free market system and targeted government intervention.

• The National Heritage Resources Act, 1999 (Act No. 25 of 1999) The Act aims to introduce an integrated and interactive system for the management of the national heritage resources and to promote good governance at all levels.

3.2. Local Strategies, Policies and Legislation

• Eskom’s Integrated Strategic Electricity Planning

Eskom has an Integrated Strategic Electricity Plan (ISEP) that includes the undertaking of ongoing and comprehensive studies into future power technologies. This provides a platform for Eskom to investigate, and if required, research, develop and demonstrate a wide range of technology options for the generation of electricity to meet that demand.

• Implications for PBMR DPP

The ISEP concludes that South Africa will require additional peaking electricity generating facilities by 2007 and additional base load electricity generating capacity by approximately 2010.

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In the longer term, 2020 and beyond, the existing power stations will start to come to the end of their economically-viable life, thus requiring their replacement with new power stations.

• City of Cape Town Metropolitan Municipality Integrated Development Plan (IDP) The five-year IDP (2007/2008 – 2011/2012) for the City of Cape Town Metropolitan Municipality recognises shared economic growth, sustainable urban infrastructure, services, public transport systems, integrated human settlements, safety and security, health, social and human capital development, good governance and regulatory reform as key strategic focus areas for the City.

• Blaauwberg Spatial Development Framework The Atlantis Corridor Growth Management Plan (2000) is directed at stimulating and guiding growth along the northern corridor between Blaauwberg and Atlantis. The Blaauwberg Spatial Development Framework (2001) indicates that the well established industrial development along Koeberg Road in the south has created the demand for additional industrial development opportunities to locate on this northern corridor. Development of the corridor is seen as an opportunity to stimulate the industrial area of Atlantis over the medium to longer term.

Areas to the south of the Koeberg site, in particular Table View, Parklands, and Blouberg, have experienced the highest population growth rate in the city over the past few years. Population and employment growth along the corridor is projected to exceed 6% per annum in the foreseeable future as it has the greatest potential for large-scale growth in the metropolitan area, within the limits of the urban edge. 6

Rapid urbanization and growth are currently experienced in the Blaauwberg area. Development in this area is actively driven by the private sector, mainly in the middle to high-income categories of the population. The fastest growing residential and industrial areas are north of Table View.

Due to employment opportunities and insufficient housing in Melkbosstrand, two additional informal settlements namely Ogieskraal and Milkwood Place have recently been established. The total housing shortage is approximately 17 600 units.

As evidenced by the population influx and noted in the Blaauwberg Spatial Development Framework (2001), densification and population growth in the area of the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station and the proposed PBMR DPP are occurring.

While not deemed to be the responsibility of the project proponent and therefore not an inherent component of the proposed Demonstration Module PBMR mitigation plan, it is suggested that the CMC enter into discussions to negotiate a partial lifting of the existing restrictions adopted in their Spatial Development Framework.

An additional mechanism is related to the potential for the negotiation of a decrease in the existing exclusion zone. However, it is not clear whether this will be considered, given that existing emergency planning zones apply to Koeberg specifically, which is a different class of nuclear reactor with a different exclusion zone.

6 KSSR – 2006: PBMR Specialist Background Information CD 10 July 2007/5. ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 54 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

• Atlantis Guide Plan According to the guide plan, one of the reasons for selecting the Duynefontein site originally, was the low population density of the area. The Atlantis Guide Plan aims to keep population density as low as possible. It prohibits further development within the 5 km zone.

Urban development is restricted to the North (Atlantis) and Southern coastal areas (Duynefontein and South). The current extent of urban development (Duynefontein, Van Riebeeckstrand and Melkbosstrand) occupies all land within the 50km PAZ identified by the Guide Plan for urban development.7

The Guide Plan anticipates further urban development between Atlantis and the coast and East of Melkbosstrand towards the Atlantis goods railway line. This urban development is curtailed by the more recent Western Cape Provincial Spatial Development Framework (2005) and the Northern Metro Urban Edge Study (2001)

• Western Cape Provincial Spatial Development Framework (2005) Urban Development is following the Cape Town, Saldanha Vredenburg corridor as well as towards Atlantis. As the provincial population and levels of economic activity increase there will be greater demand for the physical movement of goods and people particularly between the metropolitan node of the City of Cape Town and the growth areas of Saldanha Bay,

The Western Cape Provincial Spatial Development Framework (2005) (PSDF) establishes a new spatial pattern for the future development of the Province. Amongst others, it aims to provide clear guidance to the private sector about desired development directions (location and type of development) and thereby increase predictability in the development environment. The PSDF uses the urban edge concept to define where urban development can occur. Generally, the PSDF supports appropriate urban development within the urban edge in an attempt to curb urban sprawl. Where a formal urban edge is absent, for example around Atlantis, the PSDF suggests that an ‘Interim Urban edge’, which corresponds with the existing extent of urban development, be used to define the outer boundary of where urban development can occur. Of course, the local authority must prepare a Medium Term Urban Edge alignment, which will take into account factors such as population growth, biophysical conditions, natural resources etc. A formal Urban Edge line exists for Cape Town.

• Melkbosstrand Urban Edge Report (2001) & Northern Metro Urban Edge Study (2001) This report refers to the Melkbosstrand and Northern Metro Urban Edge lines i.e. the formal urban edge lines for Northern Cape Town. The Melkbosstrand Urban Edge line is aligned along the existing urban development from Duynefontein to Atlantic Beach Estate. Within the 5-km PAZ, only 387,5 ha fall within the Urban Edge line. These sites have largely been fully developed and are prohibited from acquiring additional development rights by the development controls applicable to the PAZ.

7 ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA: Environmental Impact Report:2008, chapter 10, p 9 ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 55 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

4. APPROACH TO STUDY AND METHODOLOGY

4.1. Introduction

According to the International Association for Impact Assessment (IAIA), impact assessment, simply defined, is the process of identifying the future consequences of a current or proposed action 9. A social impact assessment (SIA) is therefore the process of assessing or estimating, in advance, the social consequences or changes that are likely to emanate from a proposed development. Significance is attributed to these consequences or changes, against the background of social impact variables.

The SIA comprised of nine distinctive steps or stages that are solidly rooted in international precedent and the IAIA (1994) guidelines for social impact assessment. Certain adaptations have been made to ensure applicability to the South African and project context.

The nine steps or stages involved in the Impact Assessment are as follows:

1. The demarcation of the PBMR DPP Study Area and the Assessment Framework, including units of analysis as well as the methodology;

2. Formulation of a Focused Consultation Plan involving an issue-based consultation process, to allow a more refined exploration of perceptions, attitudes, concerns and issues that required elaboration;

3. Preliminary SIA data integration, involving the collection and interpretation of secondary data ;

4. Demographic and socio-economic profiling (base-line description) of the study areas as well as future projections relating to key variables such as population size and composition; urbanisation; and land-use changes;

5. Assessment of impacts, based on the information generated through steps1- 5 and the formulation of conclusions and recommendations;

6. Development of responses to post-implementation impacts that form an integral extension of the social analyses. Pre-existing issues, concerns and perceived risks and benefits that had been identified are internationally 11 regarded as sufficiently quantifiable and predictable to be used as a valid baseline for the estimation of potential perceived health and environmental impacts and post-implementation responses;

7. Identification through focused consultation and estimation of the indirect and cumulative impacts that can reasonably be foreseen from future actions related to the implementation of the proposed Demonstration Module PBMR;

8. Formulation of a Mitigation/ Monitoring Plan, based on consultation, to allow the possible avoidance or mitigation of negative impacts as well as the promotion of positive impacts;

9 IAIA (2001), available on-line. 11 Berglund et al, (1974) ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 56 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

9. Preparation of the Social Impact assessment report to form part of the Environmental impact Assessment Report, based on all the information generated through the initial scoping and subsequent assessment phases, including the extensive ongoing public participation process.

The previous EIA study in 2002, including the Public Participation Process, and the current EIA process managed by Arcus Gibb, served to identify the issues and concerns of a large number of Interested and Affected Parties (I&APs) regarding nuclear energy in general and the proposed development of the PBMR DPP in particular. Issues identified during the above-mentioned processes were consulted with the public by means of focus group meetings, open days and public meetings and individual meetings as part of the broader EIA process as well as the Socio- Economic Impact Process. Numerous submissions were studied as part of the broader EIA process.

The socio-economic impact assessment process also relies on information from other specialist studies e.g. transport, land use, health and safety, heritage, visual etc. in order to gain better understanding of the issues at hand. These specialist studies are included as part of the EIA Report by Arcus Gibb.(September 2008).

Consultation as part of the socio-economic impact assessment process focuses on the human factor and how the individual, family or community will experience and understand the impacts related to them. Public participation and consultation is therefore focused on a process to understand the issues and concerns raised and not on a process to involve as many role-players as possible. Different individuals, families and communities also experience and react differently to the same issue depending on who they are, where they come from, background, culture etc.

The methodology followed to gain an understanding of the relevant issues and concerns raised during the last 8 years, focuses on a combination of available literature, site visits to the affected area of 80 km around the Koeberg NPS, formal interviews and experience gained by the researcher.

Due to the sensitivity and controversial nature of debate regarding nuclear power, it is often found in consultation sessions with members of the public and private sector, that people who contribute to a better understanding of the social and economic issues at hand, require confidentiality. A large number of people interviewed indicated that they do not want to be implicated in any way and would not like to see their names in any report. It is therefore not possible to publish a complete list of all individuals and organizations interviewed. A number of people in various private and public sector positions indicated that they do not mind if their names are published as being part of the consultation process, but they want no direct link to their inputs and comments. Often it was found that the person interviewed had a different opinion than those of the institution he or she represents or works for, or the community he/she lives in. For example a person may be the owner of a business and feel that the development of a PBMR DPP will bring more guests to the business and support the PBMR DPP fully. The same person however indicated that he/she would not like other business owners to know that he/she is in support because not all business owners feel that way and that might cause conflict that he/she does not want.

Initially, meetings with role-players in the area who could provide valuable information and understanding, telephone conversations and valuable hours conducting informal interviews with different role-players and community members around the Koeberg NPS were conducted. During December 2008 and January 2009 an additional process of consultation was conducted with selected role-players in the ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 57 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment wards 23, 29 and 32. This process was carried out to verify previous understandings of issues raised and to allow for any additional clarity on the impact of issues already raised in the past. Additional interviews were also conducted with a number of other role-players as mentioned below.

Activley engaging role-players in discussions regarding the way they see and understand issues and concerns is a very difficult process. This is mainly due to factors such as; high levels of investment on the one side versus high levels of poverty and unemployment on the other, perceptions of quality of life and standard of living that differ from one individual to another, levels of education and understanding and short-term current reality orientation to survive versus long term strategic planning.

Risk perceptions and fears of people are important factors in the study of any nuclear related SEIA. Therefore, it is important to recognise attitudes towards risks and fears and try to mitigate these abstract issues. Risk can be broadly defined as:

“The existence of a threat to life and health.”8

Typically, the term “risk” is referred to as the product of a harmful consequence of an activity or event and the probability of its occurrence. Risk needs to be seen as a subjective experience that is felt by, and is different for, everyone.

What is considered ‘risky’ differs between expert risk analysts and other members of the public. The former, who see risk from a more ‘objective’ perspective, tend to define a risk or threat more narrowly than other members of the public do. Members of the public, on the other hand, tend to rely on a broader set of criteria and decision rules to arrive at their own determination of the same risk. As a result, differences tend to arise between risk experts and members of the public regarding which risks and what effects deserve attention in an environmental assessment 9.

Through previous risk research, SEIA practitioners now know that certain projects and activities lead to heightened concerns over risk that can affect people and their communities through stress and stigma-related behavioral responses (Sorensen et al , 1987; Gartner Lee Limited, 1992). Stress can be regarded as a “set of emotional, mental, behavioral and biological responses to a threat of being harmed or the loss of something dear” (Baum et al , 1981).

Due to the nature of the PBMR DPP, and the regional, provincial, national and international impact of such a project, the decision of who to consult with and over how broad an area, and within what radius is a challenge. Attending the public participation meetings, focus groups and individual discussions of the broader EIA process was used as a valuable opportunity to gain understanding in the socio- economic issues. The broader EIA public consultation process was regarded as the only process that creates an opportunity for any role-player to attend. Further meetings, workshops and individual interviews (formal or informal) serve the purpose of gaining a greater understanding of the affected environment and a better understanding of the issues at hand. Role-players consulted to gain better understanding of the issues raised include:

8 Advisory Committee on Nuclear Safety of the Canadian Nuclear Association, 1986 9 Wlodarczyk, I989; Gartner Lee Limited, 1992 ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 58 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

• Officials from various departments of the City of Cape Town with special emphasis on officials working with housing, spatial planning and services in the wards around the proposed PBMR DPP; • Tourist organizations including Cape Town Routes Unlimited, City of Cape Town Tourism and local tourism offices and operators; • Local and international tourists to the area; • Guest houses and hotels in the mentioned wards around the proposed PBMR DPP; • School principals in the area; • Members of ratepayers organizations; • Members of Chamber of Commerce; • Community members of Oogies Kraal, Rietboskraal and Witsand; • Community members in Wards 23, 29 and 32 with special focus on Atlantis; • Local businesses on the eastern side of the R27 within a 10 km radius; • Local businesses in Melkbosstrand, Duynefontein and Atlantis; • Taxi operators; and • Unemployed workers in the area.

The following specific list of role-players consulted is provided:

Organisation Person Consulted with Date

Koeberg Alert, Earthlife Africa Ms L McDaid / Mr. M Lakhani September 2007

Cape Town Routes Unlimited Calvyn Gilfellan September 2007

Swartland Tourism Buro Kiewiet September 2007

Saldanha Bay Tourism Buro Office Official September 2007

Tourists (national and 47 Persons interviewed September 2007 international) and November 2008

Taxi operators 8 Taxi operators interviewed September 2007 and January 2009

Unemployed 32 Persons interviewed November 2008

City of Cape Town Tracey McNulty-Coutts – Town November 2008 Planning Blaauwberg Administration

Lorryn McVitty – Spatial November 2008 planning

Janet Gie – Strategic November 2008 development information and GIS

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 59 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

Craig Haskins November 2008

IDP Planning Province Japie Kritzinger November 2008

SAPD Local police stations November 2008

Duke Gumede and Malvern January 2009 Cupido- Housing

Welfare Organisations Badisa / ACVV November 2008

Tourbus Operators 4 Persons interviewed November 2008

Production Decks MrMcClelland January 2009

Bardenhorst Mr Muller January 2009

Melkbos Guest House Corne Engelbrecht January 2009

Vino Verde Guest House Kriekie Bardenhorst January 2009

The Gregorian on Sea Maryna Vorster January 2009

The Beach Villa Guest House Walter Meinberger January 2009

Property Cafe Hugo Schlechter January 2009

Atlantis Beach Golf Estate Marcus Savage January 2009 Homeowners Association

Ou Skip Caravan Park Andre Delport January 2009

Melkbosstrand Private School Mr Malan January 2009

Melkbos 4 x 4 Hendrik van Helsdingen January 2009

Melkbosstrand Ratepayers Raymond Williams January 2009 Association

Melkbosstrand Chamber of Mark Simon January 2009 Commerce

Melkbosstrand Hardware Store Nick van Niekerk January 2009

Pick a Pay Melkbosstrand Graig Lombard January 2009

Era Estate Agent Alan Dewenish January 2009

Oogies Kraal Informal Settlement Various community members January 2009

Rietboskraal Informal Settlement Various community members January 2009

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Schools 4 Pupils from local schools January 2009

Atlantis 5 Local business owners January 2009

Taxi commuters 15 Local people using taxi’s January 2009

Recreational fishing and sport 6 People on the beach January 2009

The number of variables to include in a socio-economic impact assessment is nearly without limit. Human nature is extremely complex and if the impact of all possible variables were to be discussed, the process of decision making would be seriously challenging. A logical process was followed as a hybrid between valuable secondary literature and inputs received from different role-players.

Based on the issues, a number of broad categories specifically related to the proposed development of a PBMR DPP, were identified as requiring investigation, elucidation and detailed evaluation. The following information shows the types or categories of issues raised and included in the impact assessment:

• Location Considerations, including insufficient land for the current urban expansion taking place within the City of Cape Town (CCT) area of jurisdiction;

• Perceived Risks Attached to the Proposed Technology, including the untested nature of the proposed demonstration unit, fears around the need to ensure design safety as well as safe management, the fear of nuclear accidents (including reactor accidents leading to fuel meltdown), perceived opportunities for potential terrorist acts and uncertainty about the meaning of terms such as "internationally endorsed standards";

• Nuclear Waste Management and fears around the potential to use waste as a basis for developing nuclear weapons. However, the Radioactive Waste Management Policy and Strategy for the Republic of South Africa (2005), has established a national radioactive waste policy framework setting out the principles for management. It further provides for the necessary management structures for radioactive waste management. 10

• Economic Concerns, such as the potential negative impact of the proposed development on tourism and the potential economic repercussions from a nuclear related 'incident';

• Health and Safety Concerns, related to fears about the potential for accidents, incidents, leaks and contamination and the absence of a comprehensive health- based analysis, the need for health surveillance processes as well as questions about the mechanisms and processes related to criteria for determining significance ratings on factors such as toxicity/radiation potential negative impacts resulting from ill, irresponsible or striking staff; and

• Emergency Response Plans, requirements for information about contingency and/or evacuation plans as well as concerns about the potential chaos that may result from any emergency evacuation initiative.

10 Radioactive Waste Management Policy and Strategy for the Republic of South Africa, 2005

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 61 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

The following issues raised during EIA and SEIA consultations received attention during the socio-economic impact assessment process. An honest attempt was made to identify those variables / issues that will make a difference in the lives of the most individuals, families and communities and not to asses the whole shopping list of possible impacts / variables. It is important to note that a number of these issues were addressed by other specialist studies in the EIA. Land use is of high importance for communities to build houses and other social infrastructure and is therefore not only a land use and spatial planning issue but also a socio-economic issue.

Issues addressed in this SEIA must therefore not be considered in isolation to issues raised and discussed as part of other EIA specialist studies.

1. Risks associated with nuclear incidents during construction phase

2. Presence of construction workers on site

3. Influx of job seekers

4. Traffic impacts

5. Noise and dust impacts

6. Visual impacts

7. Creation of employment and business opportunities

8. Impact on health and safety

9. Impact on property prices

10. Impact on tourism

11. Impact on sense of place

12. Future land use planning in the area

13. Increased fear levels related to nuclear waste and radiation

In accordance with the International Association for Impact Assessment (IAIA) principles, and the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (DEAT) requirements, the Assessment has focused on (but has not been restricted to) the possible impacts identified by the affected public.

The possible impacts associated with the PBMR DPP were primarily identified in the Scoping Phase through public and stakeholder consultation. These impacts were derived from the issues that were identified in respect of all phases of the development of the PBMR DPP including construction, commissioning, operation and decommissioning of the plant.

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 62 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

Identified impacts were assessed in terms of the following criteria and rating scales:

Assessment Criteria

Table 25: Assessment Criteria continues

Criteria Rating Scales Cumulative impacts (incremental impacts of  Low (there is still significant capacity of the activity and other past, present and the environmental resources within the future activities on a common resource) geographical area to respond to change and withstand further stress)  Medium (the capacity of the environmental resources within the geographical area to respond to change and withstand further stress is reduced)  High (the capacity of the environmental resources within the geographical area to respond to change and withstand further stress has been or is close to being exceeded) Nature  Positive  Negative  Neutral Extent (the spatial limit of the impact)  Local (site-specific and/or immediate surrounding areas)  Regional (Western Cape)  National

Assessment Criteria continues

Intensity (the severity of the impact)  Low – where the impact affects the environment in such a way that natural, cultural and social functions and processes are minimally affected  Medium – where the affected environment is altered but natural, cultural and social functions and processes continue albeit in a modified way; and valued, important, sensitive or vulnerable systems or communities are negatively affected.  High – where natural, cultural or social functions and processes are altered to the extent that it will temporarily or permanently cease; and valued, important sensitive or vulnerable systems or communities are substantially affected. Duration (the predicted lifetime of the  Short term (0 to 5 years) impact)  Medium term (6 to 15 years)  Long term (16 to 30 years) - where the impact will cease after the operational life of the activity either because of natural processes or by human intervention Probability (the likelihood of the impact  Improbable – where the possibility of occurring) the impact occurring is very low  Probable – where there is a good possibility (<50% chance) that the ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 63 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

impact will occur  Highly probable – where it is most likely (50-90% chance) that the impact will occur  Definite – where the impact will occur regardless of any prevention measures (90% chance of occurring) Non-Reversibility (ability of the impacted  Low (impacted natural, cultural or environment to return to its pre-impacted social functions and processes will state once the cause of the impact has been return to their pre-impacted state removed) within the short-term)  Medium (impacted natural, cultural or social functions and processes will return to their pre-impacted state within the medium to long term)  High (impacted natural, cultural or social functions and processes will never return to their pre-impacted state) Impact on irreplaceable resources (is an  Yes irreplaceable resource impacted upon)  No Confidence level (the specialist’s degree of  Low confidence in the predictions and/or the  Medium information on which it is based)  High Significance rating  Low  Medium  High

4.2. SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN PERSPECTIVE

Social impacts can be defined as “The consequences to human population of any public or private actions (these include policies, programmes, plans and/or projects) that alter the ways in which people live, work, play, relate to one another, organise to meet their needs and generally live and cope as members of society. These impacts are felt at various levels, including individual level, family or household level, community, organisation or society level. Some social impacts are felt by the body as a physical reality, while other social impacts are perceptual or emotional.” (Vanclay, 2002).

In order to understand the role of SIA (Social Impact Assesment) in the EIA process one needs to define what social impacts are. This issue is complicated by the way in which different people from different cultural, ethic, religious, gender, and educational backgrounds view the world. This is referred to as the “social construct of reality”. The social construct of reality informs people’s worldview and the way in which they react to change. However, these constructs are frequently treated as perceptions or emotions, to be distinguished from “reality.” One of the key challenges facing SIA, therefore, does not necessarily involve the physical disruption of human populations, but understanding the meanings, perceptions and/or social significance of these changes. The “social construct of reality” is a characteristic of all social groups, including the agencies that attempt to implement changes, as well as the communities that are affected. 11 The tendency of development agencies and proponents to dismiss the concerns of others as being merely imagined and perceived is therefore a key issue that needs to be addressed by social impact assessments.

11 Guidelines and Principles for Social Impact Assessment, 1994 ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 64 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

Social Impact Assessment (SIA) is the process of analysing (predicting, evaluating and reflecting) and managing the intended and unintended consequences on the human environment of planned interventions (policies, programmes, plans and projects) and any social change processes invoked by those interventions so as to bring about a more sustainable and equitable biophysical and human environment (Vanclay, 2002).

Typical socio-economic baseline information that will be assessed in this project is listed in the box below:

BOX 1 : Socio-economic baseline information

• Social and economic characteristics of the affected area; • Demographic profile of the area (number, age, gender etc); • Social and economic trends (historic and current) in the affected area; • Social and economic drivers, both current and historical, in the affected area; • Social context of how people run their lives and the key factors that affect them on a day-to-day basis; • Level and state of infrastructure in the area; • Social and economic initiatives and opportunities; • Local, regional and national social and economic policies, programmes, and plans affecting the area; • Individuals, communities, organisation’s and institutions who are likely to be affected by the project/plan/policy, with specific emphasis on vulnerable individuals, communities, organization’s and institutions; • Land use and ownership patterns in the area; • Access to resources; • Institutional arrangements and structures; • Cultural beliefs and value systems.

Source : Barbour,2007 – SIA Guidelines prepared for DEADP

It is important to note that equal consideration is given to the estimation of positive and negative impacts ; otherwise, the assessment would be unbalanced and promotional in character. The study covers relevant economic and environmental impacts, which relate to the goal of promoting community health and stability and these are assessed according to different future scenarios and over different time periods (short, intermediate and long term).

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Key Components of a Social Impact Assessment (SIA) (Barbour, 2007)

The key activities in the SIA process include:

• Describing and obtaining an understanding of the proposed intervention (type, scale, location), the communities likely to be affected and determining the need and scope of the SIA; • Collecting baseline data on the current social environment and historical social trends; • Identifying potential alternatives; • Identifying and collecting data on the Social Impact Assessment variables and social change processes related to the proposed intervention. This requires consultation with affected individuals and communities; • Assessing and documenting the significance of social impacts associated with the proposed intervention; • Assessing the alternatives and identifying potential mitigation measures; and • Developing a Monitoring and Evaluation Programme.

4.3. ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT IN PERSPECTIVE

4.3.1. National context

Current South African environmental legislation governing the EIA process, which includes consideration of economic impacts associated with proposed developments, is the National Environmental Management Act (NEMA) (Act No. 107 of 1998) and the EIA regulations promulgated thereunder.

At a national level there is no single unified economic development or planning policy relevant to economic inputs to EIA processes. In a very broad sense, one can say that the key economic priority is poverty alleviation through job creation, following a free market system and targeted government intervention. This priority is reflected in the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) and the Growth, Employment and Redistribution (GEAR) Strategy and also by the newly developed Accelerated Shared Growth Initiative of South Africa (ASGISA) strategy. It is also shared by inter-governmental bodies such as the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) secretariat and a number of government departments within their own policies. These include the policies of departments that are more narrowly focused on supporting economic development through the initiation, support and regulation of projects on the ground. The economist’s role is to highlight areas of conflict so that these can be considered during the decision-making process.

4.3.2. Provincial context

The Department of Economic Development and Tourism is the primary provincial government body in the Western Cape tasked with economic development issues. The mandate of the Department calls for, among other things, “stimulating significant economic growth; reducing unemployment; increasing participation in the ‘first economy’ by those consigned by historical circumstances to the province’s ‘second’ economy; developing and enhancing micro, small and medium enterprises and co- operatives; promoting broad-based economic empowerment for black people, women, those living with disabilities, workers, and those living in rural areas; ensuring that the benefits of a growing economy are spread equally across the province; defending, building, transforming and growing selected sectors of the economy, with a significant emphasis on the tourism sector; positioning the province

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 66 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment to retain and enhance its positive position in the global economy” (PGWC, 2004). The Department of Environmental Affairs and Development Planning (DEA&DP) in the provincial government is also significantly involved with development on the ground, particularly through its formulation of the Provincial Spatial Development Framework (PSDF).

The Western Cape provincial government supports the bioregional planning concept at a provincial and local level and the Bioregional Planning Framework states that, “To promote sustainable development in the Western Cape, it will be necessary to institute planning and management systems that will facilitate a balance integration of conservation and development interests in land-use and settlement planning.

4.3.3. Local context

Local and regional municipalities are the primary government body tasked with local economic and social development issues. In terms of the Municipal Systems Act (Act No. 32 of 2000) it is compulsory for all municipalities to go through an Integrated Development Planning process to prepare a five-year strategic development plan for the area under their control. In addition, the White Paper on Spatial Planning and Land Use Management (Department of Agriculture and Land Affairs, 2001) states that, “Apart from the plan-making role of government, municipalities will also be charged with the responsibility of taking decisions on land development applications made to them. Local government is the sphere of government at the coalface of land development. It is therefore important that this sphere of government be charged with the responsibility for making decisions regarding land development.”

The duty of municipal officials to prevent pollution and ecological degradation, to promote conservation and secure ecologically sustainable development and use of natural resources, originates from the Constitution and National Environmental Management Act (NEMA) and has again been confirmed in the Local Government: Municipal Systems Act (Act No. 32 of 2000).

Economic impact refers to the effect on the level of economic activity in a given area as a result of some form of external intervention in the economy.

The goal with any Economic Impact Assessment is to arrive at an estimate of the incremental impact that the investment may have on the local economy. In other words, those changes that will not have occurred in the economy in the absence of the planned investment.

The following impacts can usually be quantified:

• Direct impact : The direct impact is calculated from macro-economic aggregates occurring as a direct result of the project. The initial impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for example is taken from the financial information and equals the value added generated by a specific scenario. • Indirect impact : Indirect impacts are calculated from the activities of suppliers. For purposes of this study, indirect suppliers include those industries who deliver goods and services to the activity under discussion (first round suppliers) including suppliers who on their part deliver goods and services to the first mentioned indirect suppliers. • Induced impacts : These impacts are the impacts on goods and services demanded due to the project. Examples include the income of employees and shareholders of the project as well as the income arising through the backward

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linkages of this spending in the economy. The impact is sometimes confused with the forward linkages of a project .

The impact of any investment involves at least two phases, namely the initial construction/commissioning phase, followed by the operation of the investment. For the purpose of the PBMR DPP a third phase is included to focus on decommissioning. The first phase involves the inflow of new capital into the economy and the impact is mainly a “once-off” event. The duration depends on the size of the investment and can vary from a few months, in the case of small to medium sized projects, to a few years, in the case of large and mega sized projects, as the one proposed in this document. The second phase is ongoing and involves the additional or new production and spending in the economy because of the investment.

The extent to which the local economy actually benefits from such an investment (first and second phase) depends on its ability to “absorb” the investment and create a multiplier effect. Despite the fact that an incident requiring evacuation is deemed to be virtually if not totally impossible, such an event is discussed and evaluated as a result of the degree to which Interested and Affected Parties (I&APs) expressed concern about such an event. It appears from experience elsewhere that the social consequences (psychological) and real impacts (social-economic) can be quite different depending on whether evacuation was merely considered or whether it took place.

5. SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT

The purpose of a Social Economic Impact Assessment (SEIA) is to provide a systematic analysis, in advance of, the likely impacts a development event (or project) will have on the day-to-day life of people and communities. SEIAs are done to help individuals, communities, as well as government organizations understand and be able to anticipate the possible social and economic consequences on human populations and communities of proposed project development or policy changes. It also serves to identify the potential for social mobilization against the project and identifies social and economic impacts that cannot be resolved and variables that will need to be addressed by avoidance or mitigation.

The focus of the PBMR DPP assessment is on the construction, operational and decommissioning phases of the development. A summary of the key impacts are given under each phase.

5.1. CONSTRUCTION PHASE IMPACTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

It is estimated that the construction phase could take up to six (6) years from the start of the construction until commissioning. During this period it is foreseen that an estimated 2 490 construction workers will be employed on site. The direct project cost relating to the demonstration power plant and pilot fuel plant, amounts to some R16 billion in June 2006 real terms according to Conningarth Economists.

The key impacts associated with the construction phase include:

• Presence of construction workers on site; • Influx of job seekers; • Traffic impacts; • Noise and dust impacts; and ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 68 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

• Creation of employment and business opportunities.

5.1.1. Presence of construction workers on site

Description of the impact

This concern relates to positive or negative impacts of the large number of construction workers on social conflicts over available resources, the potential impact on the safety and security of adjacent residents and the way families and communities structure themselves and network with each other.

During construction, a number of families in the local area may experience a decrease in quality of life. The local area can be defined as people living close to the proposed PBMR DPP, e.g. people living in ward 32 (Koeberg/Duynefontein), but also those living in the two neighbouring wards 23 (Melkbosstrand) and 29 (Atlantis).

Assessment of the impact

During construction, the proposed PBMR DPP is no different from any other major construction project. Major activities such as site preparation, earthworks, civil works and mechanical installation will occur. Support activities such as material / equipment storage in a stockyard, and mechanical maintenance and servicing will also be performed.

The presence of up to 2 490 construction workers over a period of 6 yeas on site poses a potential safety and security threat to local residents in the area.

Economic development in the areas surrounding the proposed PBMR construction site act as a catalyst for increasing the risk of crime. This is likely to be exacerbated if urbanization and settlement densification increase the mixed mosaic of high and low income settlements in close proximity to each other.

Community members from Atlantis, Oogies Kraal, Witsand and other informal areas around Melkbosstrand raised the concern that construction workers could contribute towards social conflict over available resources such as job opportunities, recreational opportunities, health and welfare services, housing etc.

Although not a general rule, the perception from people interviewed indicated that family structures and networks might be impacted upon in a negative or positive way due to construction workers who socialise with people close to the site. Negative impacts include unwanted pregnancies, involvement in criminal activities, gangsterism and alcohol abuse. Positive impacts include building of new friendships, sharing of experience and knowledge and active participation in recreational and cultural activities.

The potential exists that, construction workers, who spend their free time in the nearby area at pubs, shops, sport facilities etc before they return to their residence, may contribute towards the above-mentioned negative impacts.

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Table 26: Presence of construction workers on site

CONSTRUCTION PHASE Nature Neutral Intensity Low Extent Local Duration Medium Term Probability Probable Confidence Medium Significance Medium Level of significance after mitigation Low Non-Reversibility Low Cumulative impacts Increase pressure on social and capital human networks in communities Irreplaceable resources No

Recommended mitigation measures:

• Optimize local employment; • Establish community forums and committees to address problems that may lead to conflict situations; and • Community education programmes such as TB, HIV/AIDS, life skills, etc must be encourage in order for people to develop their human capacity and to build strong networks through community structures, forums, group meetings and training opportunities. Local government, as well as relevant community based organisations, NGOs and skills development agencies can play an important role in this regard.

The potential safety and security impacts associated with construction workers can be mitigated.

• The need to establish a Community Monitoring Committee (CMC) for the construction phase should be discussed with representatives from the local community. The role of the CMC would be to ensure that the conditions set out in the EMP are implemented and that they address any problems that arise, such as increase in thefts and burglaries associated with the construction workers. The SAPS (South African Police Services) as well as local appropriate policing should be urged by Eskom and the community forum, or a Social Monitoring and Steering Committee, to ensure that baseline statistics are available on a monthly basis regarding existing crime rates. This forum or committee should proactively engage with Eskom in developing mechanisms for monitoring and distributing of information to counter potential community perceptions that there are perceived changes in the crime rate directly as a result of construction workers being in the immediate area. • Eskom should arrange meetings with residents associations, community- policing forums, as well as the local police personnel to discuss contractors’ plans, procedures, schedules and possible difficulties, and safety and security concerns. The number of meetings and the timing of these meetings need to be discussed with the interested and affected parties and a work plan needs to be put forward. Experience in other projects has shown that members of the community readily attribute crimes committed to the presence of

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 70 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

construction workers, particularly where there are significant pre-existing levels of crime. This perception is entrenched by the actions of workers who may enter private properties to access taps or to ask domestic workers for water. Pro-active discussions between the contractor(s) and project proponent have been found to be effective in addressing concerns and putting possible preventative measures in place. Despite being simple, cheap and effective, a measure such as compelling workers to wear identification badges at all times is often not instituted or enforced by contractors to the discontent of local residents who find it impossible to separate workers from possible criminal 'elements'. • Should a CMC be established the option of drafting a code of conduct for contractors and construction workers should be assessed. • The conduct of contract workers will have to be specified in worker related management plans and employment contracts by contractors and service providers. It is suggested that a peer-group based incentive/fine scheme, which has been successfully used in other projects to achieve compliance, be introduced. Schoeman (PBMR Social Impact Assessment Report - Oct 2002) explains that this scheme involves the introduction of a bonus before commencement of construction. A pre-designated group, e.g. the environmental officer and/or the local community/property owners and/or fellow workers monitor compliance/transgressions. Every transgression carries a fine with a pre-determined value. These fines are subtracted from the bonus and the balance is divided between workers at the end of the construction period. All contraventions are displayed in the site-office together with the name of the “offender”. The rationale for this system is to promote peer-group monitoring and penalizing. According to Schoeman this is usually effective, as all would benefit from keeping the bonus at the maximum. In order to keep motivation levels high it could be a consideration that the bonus period be reduced to one year, or even six months.

5.1.2. Influx of job seekers

Description of the impact

This impact deals with the influx of job seekers to the site during the construction phase. These job seekers, including those from areas outside the “local” area, come to the area with the hope of securing employment. When they do not secure employment, the potential is there that they will add to problems of informal settlement, pressure on existing resources, services and infrastructure. The possibility is also present that they may contribute towards crime and other social problems such as alcohol abuse and prostitution. Competition and conflict could arise with the local communities.

Assessment of the impact

The proposed PBMR DPP will create expectations regarding possible employment opportunities. Consequently, the area surrounding the site could experience an influx of job seekers. If no job opportunity is found, job seekers may decide to stay in the area, which in turn could lead to an increase in informal settlements and various social problems such as crime, smuggling, alcohol abuse etc. Even if they are not responsible for specific instances of such social problems, these may still be attributed to them by the local communities.

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 71 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

Competition over employment opportunities may give rise to conflict between local residents and newcomers especially if unemployed people in these areas do not have the required skills and knowledge to take advantage of employment opportunities. The influx of job seekers will lead to an increased demand on local services and will not necessarily lead to a boost in the local economy because these job seekers are unemployed.

Democratic principles and freedom of movement must be respected with regard to all job seekers, irrespective of whether they are local or from outside the area. However, these potential job seekers from outside, as mentioned before, could take up employment opportunities creating unhappiness amongst local people. It is also true that this could lead to an even bigger need for housing and other services.

The possibility exists that job seekers, who enter into the area via connections of friends or family, may be accommodated by them.

The proposed PBMR DPP should be seen within the broader development context for the area, especially Atlantis where properties are available to draw investors in a drive to create employment in the area.

Table 27: Impact commensurate with influx of job seekers

CONSTRUCTION PHASE Nature Negative Intensity Medium Extent Local Duration Short term Probability Definite Confidence High Significance Medium Level of significance after mitigation Low Non-Reversibility Low Cumulative impacts * Not possible to quantify the possible influx of job seekers to the proposed PBMR DPP, especially against the background of the contribution of additional general and industrial development in the area. The cumulative impact of the proposed PBMR DPP in conjunction with other industrial and power related developments could lead to community or interest group mobilization against such developments. Irreplaceable resources No

Recommended mitigation measures:

• Maximise local employment by Eskom and Contractors within the framework of employment strategies with clear criteria to determine “local labor”; • The SAPS (South African Police Services) as well as local, appropriate policing should be urged by Eskom and the community forum, or a Social Monitoring and Steering Committee to ensure that baseline statistics are available on a monthly basis regarding existing crime rates. They should proactively engage with Eskom in developing mechanisms for monitoring and distributing of information to counter potential community perceptions that there are perceived changes in the crime rate directly as a result of construction workers and job seekers in the immediate area; ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 72 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

• Meetings with the local municipality should be held to discuss the management of informal settlements and backyard dwellings as a possible result of job seekers who do not find employment but opt to stay in the area; • Community education programmes such as TB, HIV/AIDS, life skills, etc must be encourage in order for people to develop their human capacity and to build strong networks through community structures, forums, group meetings and training opportunities. Local government, as well as relevant community based organisations, NGOs and skills development agencies can play an important role in this regard.

5.1.3. Traffic impacts

Description of the impact

Increased vehicular movement during the construction phase may exacerbate existing traffic congestion problems in the area, which in turn influences daily living and movement patterns of community members in the surrounding communities who make use of these roads.

Assessment of the impact

The main public transport mode is by bus with a secondary minibus taxi service serving the existing KPS via the Main Access Road and the Duynefontein Access. The existing nodal split to and from KNPS are currently 70 % private transport and 30 % public transport. Two bus stops are located within 50 m of Access 1 along the R27 and a transport interchange area is located onsite adjacent to the visitors parking (Transportation Impact Assessment, July 2008)

It will be required that Site Contractors supply their employees at all times with safe bus transport that complies with all relevant legal requirements. The Site Contractors will transport local and seconded employees, from pre-arranged collection and drop- off points, to and from the Project Site daily.

Vehicular movement during the construction phase is likely to exacerbate existing traffic congestion problems, notably during peak hour traffic (thus impeding daily living and movement patterns). The intensity of obstruction of normal traffic flow will depend on whether traffic associated with construction activity coincides with peak periods and which routes will be used.

The following conclusions were reached by the Transport Specialist Study (Arcus Gibb, July 2008).

• An intersections level of operation is measured by a Level of Service (LOS) rating. A Level of Service A for an intersection is considered good and a LOS F is considered poor. The LOS rating is based on vehicle delay (vehicle waiting to leave intersection) at an intersection or approach. • The R27 / Main Access Road intersection eastbound approach turning south onto the R27 deteriorates from LOS C with a two vehicle queue length to a LOS E with a 10 vehicle queue length during the PM peak hour and should be upgraded to a signalised intersection by 2012 even if the PBMR DPP is not built. The appropriate warning signs of an upcoming signal should be constructed along the R27 leading up to the proposed upgraded intersection. • It is recommended that exceptionally heavy loads be transported during the dry season, however if this is not possible additional transport management

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measures would be required. It is also recommended that exceptionally heavy loads be transported on weekdays during non-peak periods on the northern sections of the R27 from 06:00 to 10:00 and 11:00 to 18:00 and from 08:00 to 16:00 on the southern sections. • During the construction phase the R27 (West Coast Road) / Main Access Road intersection will operate acceptably with an overall intersection LOS B in the AM and PM peak hours. • During the construction phase, the PBMR DPP will be accessed via a 12 m wide access road off the Main Access Road. • It is expected that the existing speed bumps along KNPS Main Access Road could hinder the SMPT safely traversing this road therefore the speed bumps should be temporarily removed during the construction phase of the PBMR DPP. • The R27 is an existing heavy load route and therefore should be able to cope with the increase of heavy vehicles due to the PBMR DPP construction phase. • Traffic calming measure are required along the KNPS Main Access Road to promote reduced vehicle speeds therefore the speed bumps should be reconstructed along KNPS Main Access Road as a necessary traffic calming measure.

Emergency Evacuation

The KNPS’s 2005 Emergency Plan 6 which is currently in place will be required to be upgraded to include the evacuation of PBMR DPP construction workers. If an emergency evacuation is required it is expected that the construction workers would be evacuated using the 30 buses used for commuting.

The KNPS’s 2005 Emergency Plan 6 states that “if the capacity of the road system is reduced by 60% of normal capacity, the required population evacuation can still be achieved within acceptable time limits”. The transport network road capacity currently available to accommodate the planned evacuation is approximately 4 500 vehicles, 30 buses and is less than 1% of the current capacity.

The construction phase of the PBMR DPP (less than 1% increase in vehicles) is therefore not expected to affect the evacuation times assessed in the current KNPS Emergency Plan as it is located within the KNPS 5 km UPZ and 16 km EPZ.

Table 28: Traffic impacts

CONSTRUCTION PHASE Nature Negative Intensity Medium Extent Local Duration Short term Probability Probable Confidence High Significance Medium Level of significance after mitigation Low Non-Reversibility Low Cumulative impacts Low

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 74 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

Accidents could result in injury and death that will affect families and friends. If the mitigation measures are not implemented, then cumulative impacts can be expected such as increase in accidents, traffic congestions, discomfort for schools and residential areas. Irreplaceable resources No

Recommended mitigation measures

Agreements will need to be put in place by Eskom before the construction process starts, to ensure that contractors, sub-contractors and suppliers will adhere to measures related to ensuring that:

● the use of construction related vehicles is limited to off-peak periods only; ● there is an avoidance of busy routes, intersections, residential areas and roads leading past schools; ● strict adherence to traffic rules; ● utilizing of bus transport for construction workers; ● co-operation with local traffic law enforcement agencies and the public to ensure compliance with traffic legislation.

Ideally, the Environmental Officer, with community involvement, would monitor the use of a toll-free complaint service, which could be initiated with the access number for this service clearly indicated at key impact sites for public use. Cooperation with local law enforcement agencies would be important to ensure compliance with traffic legislation.

The Transport Specialist Study proposes the following recommendations (July 2008).

• The R27 / Main Access Road intersection is upgraded to a signalised intersection when signal warrants are met. • Relevant signage is constructed along the R27 approaching the proposed signalised upgraded R27 / Main Access Road intersection. A comprehensive Traffic Management Plan is completed in conjunction with the authorities for the transport of exceptionally heavy loads. • It is recommended that exceptionally heavy loads be transported during the dry season, however if this is not possible additional transport management measures would be required. It is also recommended that exceptionally heavy loads be transported on weekdays during non-peak periods on the northern sections of the R27 from 06:00 to 10:00 and 11:00 to 18:00 and from 08:00 to 16:00 on the southern sections. The speed bumps along KNPS Main Access Road should be temporarily removed during the construction phase of the PBMR DPP. • A 6 km slip road is constructed off the R27 to gain access to the KNPS’s Main Access 1. • Speed bumps removed during the construction phase of the PBMR DPP should be re-constructed along KNPS Main Access Road for the normal operations phase of the PBMR DPP.

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 75 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

5.1.4. Noise and dust impacts

Description of the impact

Potential intrusive impacts relate to impacts such as noise and dust impacts. Increased levels of noise and dust may impact negatively on the quality of life of people living close to the proposed PBMR DPP site. The movement of construction vehicles could contribute to increased levels of dust in the area and could further be aggravated by stong winds blowing in the area.

These impacts are assessed in separate specialist studies but noted here for social significance, based on a review of the respective specialist assessments.

Assessment of the impact

The following information was obtained from the Noise Impact Study undertaken by Jongens, Keet Associates (November 2007) . The closest occupied noise sensitive land that might potentially be impacted upon by the proposed PBMR DPP is the residential suburb of Duynefontein with the nearest residences approximately 1800 m south of the existing nuclear plant and approximately 1200 m south of the proposed PBMR DPP building.

It was anticipated that incorporating noise mitigation procedures by means of judicious site planning of the proposed PBMR DPP would ensure no impact at negligible, if any cost.

Dust generated from the area will be seen, particularly at night, as it will diffuse the light. Correct and effective dust suppression methods will reduce this visible element. The suppression techniques will include wetting down traffic areas and the paving of frequently used roads.

Table 29: Noise and dust impacts

CONSTRUCTION PHASE Nature Negative Intensity High (from residential area) Extent Local and regional Duration Short term Probability Definite Confidence High Significance Medium (residential area) Level of significance after mitigation Low Non-Reversibility Low Cumulative impacts Low No specific cumulative impacts besides the contribution to other developments in the area. Irreplaceable resources No

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 76 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

Recommended mitigation measures

Given the scale of the project and the duration of the construction phase, the impacts associated with noise and dust generated by construction activities and the movement of heavy vehicles will need to be carefully managed. Based on experience and lessons learned with other construction projects, the potential noise and dust impacts during construction can be effectively mitigated. The detailed mitigation measures should be outlined in the Environmental Management Plan (EMP) for the Construction Phase. The aspects that should be covered include:

• Implementing dust suppression measures for heavy vehicles such as wetting roads on a regular basis and ensuring that vehicles used to transport sand and building materials are fitted with tarpaulins and covers; • Enforcing strict operating hours for heavy vehicles and construction activities on site to avoid times of day when noise impacts are more likely to affect the nearby communities. Strict enforcement of municipal bylaws and prior notice must be given to potentially interested and affected property owners/occupiers if work is to be undertaken outside the framework of the bylaws, once permission has been obtained. Dates, times and the nature of the work to be undertaken are to be provided in such notices; • The Contractor must inform all adjacent landowners of any other activity that could cause a nuisance; • Construction activities on Saturday afternoons should be limited and no construction related activities should take place on Sundays; and • Ensuring that all vehicles are road worthy and fitted with appropriate silencers.

5.1.5. Creation of employment and business opportunities

Description of the impact

The construction activities will create a large number of temporary employment opportunities for construction workers but also offer other sources of temporary employment such as catering for construction workers. This will result in a positive impact on unemployment at a local level. A significant number of opportunities will be created for local companies / service providers and SMMEs.

Assessment of the impact

According to a macro-economic study done by the South African economic research company, Conningarth Economists 12 , the impact on employment amounts to 21 297 sustainable job opportunities per annum for the PBMR DPP. Of these 2 490 are a direct result of the production of the PBMR DPP, with the balance resulting from other activities supporting the construction drive. Induced job opportunities relate to mining, manufacturing, electricity, gas and water, wholesale and retail trade, catering and accommodation, transport, storage and communication, financial and business services, community and social services and construction.

The total impact on low-income households is estimated at R600 million per annum for the PBMR DPP. Of the total household income generated by the payment of salaries and wages to employees as a result of the construction of the PBMR DPP,

12 Conningarth Economists – PBMR Annual Report 2007 ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 77 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment almost 21% will be destined for lower income households. This will contribute significantly towards poverty alleviation.

Table 30: Job opportunities per skill category (Source: PBMR DPP annual report 2007)

ESTIMATED NUMBER OF JOBS PER SKILL CATEGORY YEAR SKILLED SEMI-SKILLED UNSKILLED TOTAL 6 Years 124 1370 996 2490

This could result in short-term positive impacts on the local economy depending on where workers come from and where they live. These opportunities would present employment within a context where significant downsizing as well as the closure of some industries in Atlantis, inter alia , has taken place. This would have a particular impact on the down turning in construction related employment opportunities and the levels of unemployment amongst unskilled and semi-skilled workers. The majority of employees will be drawn from the predominant pool of unskilled and semi-skilled persons. For this reason, the significance of the employment creation related impact is deemed high.

The PBMR DPP offers the potential for unemployed people not only to gain meaningful employment during the construction phase, but also the opportunity to gain valuable skills and knowledge. It also provides the opportunity to employed people, who may regard employment opportunities with the PBMR DPP as better for their future, in comparison to their existing positions.

Workers can be sourced from areas such as Atlantis, Melkbosstrand, Duynefontein, Mamre, De Noon, Witsand, etc that lie in close proximity to the PBMR DPP site and other areas.

Labour Force 2001: Wards - City of Cape Town 13

Table 31: Labour Force 2001: City of Cape Town (Source: 2001 Census)

Description and Ward Number 29 32 23 104 4 Employed 10 347 9 853 10 946 7 647 9 355 Unemployed 4 311 4 293 743 4 491 1 583 Not Economic Active 7 681 6 630 4 199 2 876 4 399

Wards: 2001 – Education Grouped 14

Table 32: wards: 2001- Education Grouped (Source: 2001 Census)

Description and Ward Number 29 32 23 104 4 No schooling 634 775 230 910 269 Some primary 2 742 2 941 488 2 179 1 033 Complete primary 2 099 1 925 177 846 391 Some secondary 9 593 8 105 2 631 4 206 3 743 Std 10/Grade 12 3 753 3 303 6 360 3 611 5 727 Higher 661 618 6 201 2 183 3 624

13 Census 2001 Statistics : City of Cape Town 14 Census 2001 Statistics : City of Cape Town ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 78 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

As per the Project Labour Agreement, to be entered into and agreed upon by the relevant Employer organization and Labour unions and to which all Site Contractors will be contractually bound, preference shall be given to the employment of local labour, both unskilled and skilled, as far as possible within a 50 km radius of the Project Site. All recruitment and engagement of local labour for the Project must be processed through a recruitment office established by the Site Contractor via the Department of Labour, at an appropriate location and venue. The Site Contractor shall make every effort to maximize the use of local labour and comply to the fullest extent with the skills empowerment requirements of the project by introducing effective in-house training programmes that will produce locally sourced skills.

Democratic principles and freedom of movement must be respected regarding all workers irrespective of whether they are local or from outside the area. However these potential workers from outside could take up employment opportunities creating unhappiness amongst local people.

The use of local suppliers and service providers must be enhanced through local procurement and pro-active targeting processes via an open and transparent tender process for all construction related activities.

Table 33: Creation of employment and business opportunities

CONSTRUCTION PHASE Nature Positive Intensity Low Extent Local to regional Duration Medium term Probability Probable Confidence High Significance Medium Level of significance after mitigation High Non-Reversibility Low Cumulative impacts Low Families of those who secure work will benefit as well as local businesses that will benefit indirectly because of increased local spending. General health and well- being of these community members will improve. Other business opportunities presented by other development in the area can be utilized by local businesses. Irreplaceable resources No

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Recommended Enhancement Measures

The following specific measures are suggested to maximize the benefits related to employment creation:

• Eskom should, as far as possible, make the appointment of local labour a priority issue, with clear targets during the pre-construction phase. Targets must be clear for BEE and local employment. Care should be taken to avoid potential conflict between people in the immediate surroundings seeking employment and those from elsewhere. Therefore, the criteria for “local” must be clearly stated.

• The number of persons required, as well as the specific skills required in respect of each worker should be specified as soon as possible before construction start. An employment/skills registration agency or 'labour desk' should be put in place to identify prospective candidates who would meet the job specifications in consultation with the relevant local authorities. Such an agency/desk will have to take responsibility for accurate information dissemination at community level. It is important to determine the available skills in the area and the level of training required. Experience has shown that formalizing this process through such an agency avoids duplication, misrepresentation, confusion and unrealistic expectations. It is also important to clarify project time frames and when candidates from local communities are anticipated to be needed. The identification of such an agency must be done in consultation with the local community stakeholders.

• A labour skills, grading and assessment centre should be established to provide specific and relevant information on the available employment. This will include number and type of jobs, skill requirements for the jobs, duration of the jobs, remuneration scales, hours of work, conditions of work, procedures for the application of jobs, procedures for selecting job applicants, and training and certification available on the job. Where possible, on-the-job training should be provided to locals, to develop their existing skills and to ensure that they receive skills that are transferable to other sectors. Besides training directly done by Eskom, a process of coordination must be facilitated by Eskom to involve appropriate training providers with regards to targeting of employment and skills development initiatives.

• Opportunities, especially in the higher levels of employment, should be maximized for younger people who tend to have higher levels of education.

• Eskom and Contractors must investigate opportunities to maximize employment of women.

• Eskom could provide further information to local businesses and structures such as the tourism and business forums regarding direct business opportunities associated with the project. FUrhtermore, Eskom should identify targets for BEE.

It is common practice for local informal vendors (notably women providing cooked food) to enter construction areas, given the new business opportunity provided by the construction workers. Due to requirements for security, it is believed that the PBMR DPP construction site will not readily lend itself to this

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practice. It may be possible to allow this practice through the allocation of a designated area where vendors could ply their trade.

• A skills development programme should be introduced whereby international employees train and mentor South African staff members to ensure transference of skills.

• Participative workshops are needed with local economic development and other related role players to discuss aspects such as procurement process, procurement criteria, salaries, transparency and community expectations.

The following specific measures are suggested to maximize the benefits related to the use of local suppliers of goods and services before construction starts and during the construction process:

• Open tender process, which includes, improved communication of tender opportunities through advertising in local community media, including the local radio station. Eskom and the main contractor must take up this responsibility before and during construction; • Expedite process of registering localservice providers on Eskom's procurement database as an ongoing concern. A supplier development programme can go a long way to assist local suppliers of goods and services with registration on Eskom’s database. Assistance is needed in meeting compliance standards and understanding tender requirements; • Provide information regarding the types of business opportunities and economic spin-offs that may arise from the proposed development to the various structures and institutions actively involved in the first and second economy; • Eskom must set clear targets for BEE & local procurement. Criteria for 'local labor' to be agreed in consultation with local community stakeholders and communicated before construction starts; • Include basic business and entrepreneurial skills as part of a skills development component of the development to ensure social capital development and empowerment of the local entrepreneurs; • Eskom must engage in participatory workshops in which interested members of local communities can be guided concerning types of business opportunities that could arise; • Investigate ways of enabling potential subcontractors from low-income areas to tender with the support of Red Door and other economic institutions; • Set up linkages for small business loans, as well as small business skills training. In this regard, the role of partnership with other role-players who could assist in these matters, should be considered, such as Red Door; • Closer interaction with institutions that could assist with provision of support to small businesses, including the possible identification of agencies that could assist with the provision of seed finance and entrepreneurial counseling (Red Door, LED Forum, Local Council); and • Feedback by Eskom to local suppliers and the broader community on numbers of local people employed, tenders awarded and business opportunities created to the advantage of the local community. This could strengthen the relationship between Eskom and the various role-players around the proposed PBMR DPP.

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5.2. OPERATIONAL PHASE IMPACTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

It is estimated that for the first seven years after construction of the PBMR DPP, operation of the facility will be primarily based on demonstrating key technical and commercial performance parameters such as construction costs, plant availability and efficiency, operational and maintenance costs and mid-life upgrade requirements. It is envisaged that after seven years of successful demonstration, the PBMR DPP will then be able to operate commercially for the remainder of its 40-year lifespan. Approximately 100 job opportunities will be created. The staff component could be strengthened by an additional external staff complement of 30 people who will provide specific, appropriate skills to the PBMR DPP on an outsourced basis.

Key impacts associated with the operational phase include:

• Impact on health and safety; • Creation of employment and business opportunities; • Impact on property prices; • Impact on tourism; • Impact on sense of place; • Visual impacts; • Future land use planning in the area; and • Risks associated with nuclear incidents during the construction phase.

5.2.1. Impact on health and safety

Description of the impact

Through public consultation, it was stated clearly by various participants that they fear the impact of possible risks related to health and safety. These include risks related to design safety, nuclear accidents, potential terrorist acts, capacity and capability of people operating the PBMR DPP, strikes and labour unrest affecting daily management, reliability of communication flow, especially with reference to perception on potential risks and negative impacts on good health.

Assessment of the impact

South Africa became a nuclear electricity generating country with the acquisition of the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station. After years of exhaustive investigation and study, Eskom decided to build Koeberg at Duynefontein near Cape Town (African Wildlife 2006). Construction of Koeberg began in June 1976 and electricity was generated for the first time, by Unit 1 on 4 April 1984, and by Unit 2 on 25 July 1985 (Melkbos 2007).

South Africa therefore has nearly a quarter of a century of experience in operating a major nuclear power plant. Koeberg is considered by the international community to be one of the best-run nuclear plants in the world (African Wildlife 2006). The operation of Koeberg has provided vast experience in all aspects of nuclear power including the ‘Front End’ of the fuel cycle (fuel manufacture and supply) and the ‘Back End’ of the fuel cycle (the handling of nuclear waste). (Dr Kelvin Kemm, October 2007 and African Wildlife (2006), Vol 60 no 2, Special Edition: Energy, Koeberg Nuclear Power Generation pg 27)

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Design safety Since the commercial production of nuclear energy to generate electricity began, it has arguably proved to be one of the worlds’ safest energy technologies. This may in part be contributed to the fact that safety forms a major component of the design, construction and operation of a NPS. There are a number of systems that monitor, control and support the safe operation of the reactor at its power plant. These systems provide maximum safety and reliability and reduce the chance of an accidental release of radioactivity into the environment. A key design aspect of the PBMR DPP is that it is intended to be safer than other commercial nuclear power station technologies. The PBMR DPP is said to be inherently safe due to the fact that should a worst-case scenario accident occur, no human intervention would be required in the short or medium term to ensure that the reactor shuts down safely. The factors which result in the inherent safety of the technology are design, materials used, fuel characteristics, the physics involved and the geometrical arrangement of the reactor unit components.

Nuclear accidents It is a misconception amongst the public that a nuclear reactor can explode like an atomic bomb. This cannot happen, as a nuclear explosion requires a very high concentration of fissionable uranium, which is not the type of uranium that is used within the PBMR DPP. The uranium used in the PBMR DDP is enriched to a maximum of about 10%, whereas an atomic bomb using uranium is enriched to above 90%.

Some stakeholders have major concerns about potential safety impacts, despite information from a diversity of sources that supports the notion that nuclear technology can be safe if handled correctly. Furhtermore, there is an ongoing lingering fear of such technology even though we are exposed to radiation on an ongoing basis whether standing in the sun, flying in an airplane or having X-rays taken. Numerous safety systems have been engineered to assist in preventing an accident with the reactor or to lessen the effects in the event that an accident should occur. All critical safety systems have backup systems that duplicate the jobs that the system is supposed to perform.

An extension of the psychological impact that nuclear technology may have on susceptible individuals is the phenomenon referred to as the nocebo effect whereby, for some people, the belief that they are at risk is sufficient for them to incur the risk. This phenomenon has vast implications in that any person who speaks with “authority” on the health and safety impacts of nuclear activity has a moral duty to ensure that the information he or she is providing is “the whole truth and nothing but the truth”.

Eskom is obliged to implement measures that ensure compliance with the nuclear licensing and safety criteria in terms of the Occupational Health and Safety Act and as prescribed by the National Nuclear Regulator. No effective or latent effects would manifest from normal operation related activities.

Radiation exposure to humans can be either harmful or beneficial, with numerous applications in the medical and industrial fields (Magill and Galy, 2005). The effect of the radiation exposure depends on the type of radiation (alpha, beta or gamma), the amount received, the rate at which it is received, the body part exposed to radiation,

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 83 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment and whether the exposure is chronic (regular, low doses) or acute (short term, high dose). The ability of the body to repair radiation damage should also be considered. The exposure of individuals to radiation may lead to health effects that are generally classified as either “deterministic” or “stochastic”.

It is the overall conclusion of the radiological health and safety study done by AquiSim Consulting (Pty) Ltd (June 2008), that the anticipated impact on the health of persons living in the area of influence of the proposed PBMR DPP, due to the radiation emissions during normal operation or accident conditions, is of low significance. Note however, that conclusions drawn on the radiological safety and health of the PBMR DPP are based on information provided by Eskom Holdings and PBMR Company. Any conclusions given in this document may be influenced by changes in the information provided by PBMR Pty Ltd.

The radiological health and safety report (Blerk, June 2008) came to the overall conclusion that the anticipated impact on the health of persons living in the area of influence of the proposed PBMR DPP, due to the radiation emissions during normal operation or accident conditions, is of low significance.

Blerk concludes that a comparison of the KNPS radiological protection licensing requirements against the IAEA guidelines for a Radiation Protection Programme for a nuclear power station, suggests that the KNPS requirements are comprehensive and in full compliance with the IAEA guidelines. The purpose of such a Radiation Protection Programme is to protect humans (i.e. workers and the public) from harmful effects of radiation. The KNPS system of radiation protection, which has been refined according to international standards over a period of more than 20 years, is sufficient as a guideline for a Radiation Protection Programme for the PBMR DPP. The KNPS and PBMR Client Office have signed a Service Level Agreement, in which the two organizations have made a commitment that they will assist one another with resources on related matters such as radiation protection, ALARA, and a decontamination programme. The PBMR DPP radiation protection programme will thus be consistent with the existing KNPS requirements and in fact mirror the KNPS radiation protection programme in terms of policies and standards. The PBMR DPP will use the KNPS radiological records system, but will have its own facilities for the additional protection aspects of operation.

From this perspective, it can be concluded that there are no additional worker health and safety measures necessary to be incorporated in the PBMR DPP RMS and own radiation protection programme, other than what is already implemented at the KNPS.

According to Blerk the current emergency response infrastructure, and systems associated with the affected communities in case of an off-site emergency is adequate to cope with the demands that the proposed PBMR DPP will place on the infrastructure and systems within a 5km radius of the site. Since the boundary of the 5km zone will be the same as that currently in place for the KNPS, the cumulative impact to the public from the two facilities is localized and of low significance. However, if an accident occurs at either one of the two sites, then the plant personnel of the other plant will be within a 2km radius and will thus have to be responded to. The cumulative impact on the emergency response planning for an off-site emergency is that the number of people, in this case plant personnel, in close proximity of either one of the two sites will increase. The cumulative impact under these conditions are still considered to be localized and of low significance.

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Blerk further concluded that the cumulative affect from an on-site emergency (i.e. emergencies that do not affect the public) albeit at the PMBR DPP or at the KNPS, is expected to be limited to the individual sites. These impacts are thus considered to be of low significance and local in their extent. The current KNPS emergency response infrastructure and systems is adequate to cope with the demands that the PBMR DPP will place on, in case of an off-site emergency (i.e. emergencies that have the potential to affect the public) within a 5 km radius of the site.

In accordance with the Constitution of South Africa that states that “everyone has the right to an environment that is not harmful to their health or well-being”, the Emergency Response Report done by Malepa Holdings (November 2007) states clearly that based on the CMCs EMME/2 transport demand model, the Koeberg emergency evacuation modeling study (July 2000) indicated that:

• For the year 2000 demand scenario traffic can be accommodated and cleared from the 16 km Emergency Planning Zone in a period of 4.5 hours on the current network; and • Full development of the area will (on the existing network) create traffic demand that will clear in a period of 19 hours (16 km EPZ). This will reduce to 16 hours on the expected year 2015 road network (which will include a number of new roads in the area).

A very important question raised by communities, relate to a nuclear accident and the potential impacts thereof. The Chernobyl Forum 2003-2005 published a study named: “Chernobyl’s legacy: Health, Environmental and socio-economic impacts” Second Revised Version. This study contains valuable information on the impacts experienced after the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986. Although the realities are different around the proposed PBMR DPP and Chernobyl, the mere possibilities of these impacts influence individual, family and community living and people’s behaviour related to fear for these impacts. Impacts experienced include: • Childhood thyroid cancer caused by radioactive iodine fallout as one of the main health impacts of the accident; • Many people being traumatized by the rapid relocation, the breakdown in social contacts, fear and anxiety about what health effects might result; • Imposed huge costs; • Indirect losses relating to the opportunity cost of removing agricultural land and forests from use and the closure of agricultural and industrial facilities, and opportunity costs, including the additional costs of energy resulting from the loss of power from the Chernobyl nuclear plant; • Communities in the affected areas suffer from a highly distorted demographic structure; • Mental health impact due to psychological distress arising from the accident and its aftermath has had a profound impact on individual and community behaviour.

From the above it is clear that a nuclear accident will definitely impact negatively on health and safety, and the way people live their lives. The degree of an accident may

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 85 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment not be the same as Chernobyl, but the consequences may be similar. Due to the fact that Chernobyl did happen, individuals, families and communities are influenced by the possibility that it can happen again.

The emergency response specialist study (Mogwere Khoathane, Nov 2007) focuses on emergency preparedness that could be defined as the measures that enable individuals and organizations to stage a rapid and effective emergency response. In the context of nuclear emergencies, protective actions include measures to limit the exposure of the public to radioactive contamination through external exposure, inhalation and ingestion. The objectives of these actions are to prevent deterministic effects (early mortality) and to reduce stochastic effects (principally cancer) as much as is reasonably practicable.

The following key findings derive from this Emergency Response study: • The current KNPS emergency response infrastructure and systems associated with the affected communities is adequate to cope with the demands that the proposed PBMR DPP will place on the infrastructure and systems within the 5km radius of the site; • The evaluation of the KNPS emergency plan requirements suggest that the KNPS requirements are comprehensive and in compliance with international guidelines; and • For Nuclear Emergencies two sets of requirements have to be fulfilled. For KNPS the infrastructure requirements are in place, however, there is still room for improvement for functional response requirements that refer to the “capability” to perform an activity.

The Transport Specialist Study (Arcus Gibb, July 2008) stated that, “The development of the PBMR DPP will not affect the evacuation times assessed in the current KNPS Emergency Plan as it is located within KNPS’s 5 km Protective Action Zone (PAZ) and 16 km Urgent Protective Action Zone (UPZ). Emergency evacuation procedures will have to be updated to include the additional 150 staff members, visitors and shift workers during the operational phase. The current KNPS modelled evacuation times meet the minimum requirements.”

Terrorist attacks Security concerns focus on protection of the PBMR DPP on the one hand, but safety of the citizen and how any attempt to break into the PBMR DPP or attack the PBMR DPP will affect the ordinary person living in the area. From the information available in other specialist studies it is clear that proper precautions are taken to ensure the safety and security of the proposed PBMR DPP at all times.

Another perceived fear that people experience is the risk of nuclear facilities from terrorist attacks. In an article: Nuclear reactor hazards: ongoing dangers of operating nuclear technology in the 21st Century by Helmut Hirsch, Oda Becker, Mycle Schneider and Anthony Froggatt the following was noted:

“Even before the attacks in New York and Washington in 2001, concerns had been raised over the risk of nuclear facilities from terrorist attacks. Nuclear facilities have been targeted in the past leading to their destruction, such as the attack by Israel on the Osirak reactor in Iraq. The threats to nuclear power plants from terrorist attacks and acts of war can be summarized as follow:

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• Because of the importance to the electricity supply system, the severe consequences of radioactive releases as well as the symbolic character, nuclear power plants are “attractive” targets for terrorist as well as for military attacks; • An attack on a nuclear power plant can lead to radioactive releases equivalent to several times the release at Chernobyl. Relocation of the population can become necessary for large areas (up to 100 000 km 2). The number of cancer deaths could exceed 1 million; • Nuclear power plants could be targets in times of war if a military use is suspected; • The spectrum of possible modes of attack is very diverse. Attacks could be performed by air, on the ground and from the water. Different means/weapons can be used; and • Protective measures against terror attacks are of very limited use. Furthermore, a number of conceivable measures cannot be implemented in a democratic society.

From the abovementioned, it is clear that the constant fear of possible terrorist attacks will affect negatively on day-to-day living.

Capacity and capability Another key aspect to consider when looking into the safety of a NPS is the training and preparedness to which the people who operate these stations are exposed. For example, reactor operators are trained and tested on the procedures of power plant operation, and in order to train such staff, utilities around the world use sophisticated power plant simulators, which are replicas of the control room of the real power plant in which they will be working. The simulators are computer controlled, allowing the operators to gain practical experience in managing all types of normal and unusual occurrences without posing any danger to the public or the environment. Communication flow Risk perception and negative psycho-social squeal of nuclear related “dread risk perception” are frequently attenuated and tempered by the provision of neutral, reliable, responsible, un-biased information dissemination and risk communication. While there is limited public perception that neither Necsa (Nuclear Energy Corporation of South Africa) nor Eskom will, necessarily, provide neutral information and risk communication, it is also perceived that anti-nuclear lobbies will not necessarily engage in the provision of neutral information and risk communication either. For this reason it is seen as imperative that an organisation such as the African Commission on Nuclear Energy (AFCONE), formed to oversee compliance in respect of the Organisation of African Unity’s Treaty of Pelindaba, be formally requested to extend its activities under Article 12 of the Treaty to educate and inform the public of the real risks and issues related to ‘the peaceful use of nuclear energy for the betterment of society’.

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Table 34: Impact on health and safety

OPERATION PHASE Nature Negative Intensity Medium Extent Local Duration Medium term Probability Definite Confidence High Significance Medium Level of significance after mitigation Low Non-Reversibility Medium Cumulative impacts Low See above Irreplaceable resources No

Recommended mitigation measures The absence of an approved National Nuclear Energy Policy 15 is a major factor contributing to the “dread risk perception” experienced by the affected society. Attention must be paid to the Radioactive Waste Management Policy and Strategy for the Republic of South Africa (2005), that in itself will go a long way in addressing the “dread risk perception”. It is important to take note that the policy is underpinned by the following principles 16 : • Polluter pays principle: the financial burden for the management of radioactive waste shall be borne by the generator of that waste; • Transparency regarding all aspects of radioactive waste management: all radioactive waste management activities shall be conducted in an open and transparent manner and the public shall have access to information regarding waste management where this does not infringe on the security of radioactive material; • Sound decision-making based on scientific information, risk analysis and optimization of resources: decision-making shall be based on proven scientific information and recommendation of competent national and international institutions dealing with radioactive waste management; • Precautionary principle: where there are threats of serious irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation; • No import nor export of radioactive waste: in principle South Africa will neither import nor export radioactive waste; • Co-operative governance and efficient national co-ordination: due to their crosscutting nature all activities involving radioactive waste management will be managed in a manner that prevents duplication of effort and maximises coordination;

15 Nuclear energy policy and strategy for the Republic of South Africa, Draft for public comment , July 2007

16 Eskom PBMR DPP EIA Draft Plan of Study for EIA Version 1.0 / July 2007 ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 88 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

• International cooperation: the government recognises that it shares a responsibility with other countries for global and regional radioactive waste management issues. Its actions shall follow the principle in this policy and in relevant regional and international agreements; • Public participation: radioactive waste management shall take into account the interests and concerns of all interested and affected, when decisions are being made; and • Capacity building and education: the government shall create opportunities to develop people’s understanding, skills and general capacity concerning radioactive waste management.

It is vital that the Tygerberg Hospital’s ability to cope with nuclear incidents and disasters is maintained, in line with the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) REMPAN programme, aimed at promoting regional competence to deal with nuclear incidents and disasters. It is therefore seen as an absolute requirement that Tygerberg Hospital takes the responsibility seriously to maintain this competence with the support of all role-players involved. The following mitigation mewasures also need to be considered: • The importance of establishing risk communication and risk management includes mechanisms to address legitimate concerns; • Since nuclear-based energy generation has become such a sensitive issue, the ability of the public to participate and influence the process of decision-making should be actively promoted and developed; • Total community involvement and monitoring during construction, commissioning, operation and decommissioning, including waste disposal and management and regulatory issues;

It is the responsibility of Eskom to ensure that Health and Safety Management Plans should be in place with regular reviews. Emergency Response Plan formulated by Eskom should include mechanisms for communicating potential risk, health and safety information to affected communities as part of pro-active risk communication strategies;

• Due to the fact that a section of the public have little faith in regulatory mechanisms or Eskom’s assurances that members of the public are at no significant risk to radioactivity, visible compliance with these measures is deemed to be of utmost importance. The development of community based environmental indicators on a participative basis could contribute to assessing the quality of life of communities. With the support of the City of Cape Town, Eskom can facilitate a process with volunteers and other community based organisations to identify these indicators and implement a process for ongoing monitoring to evaluate to what extent they are achieved;

• The promotion of an understanding of radiation, radiation exposure and nuclear power-related activities is seen as a central requirement in initiatives to reduce the levels of fear and anxiety emanating from perceptions about nuclear-related risks. An honest, transparent and comprehensive awareness creation campaign for the dissemination of information about energy generation and nuclear and other technologies is seen as a fundamental requirement for Eskom;

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• Regional competency must be ensured to deal with radiation incidents and the routine and emergency support for radiation exposed individuals;

• Distribution of understandable information and knowledge regarding the PBMR DPP and all other aspects related e.g. evacuation plans, nuclear waste management, radiation, functioning of a PBMR DPP etc. People must gain understanding in order to put their fears to rest or to manage it properly without negative behaviour changes. A clear challenge lies in the accuracy and independence of information and a suggestion was made that the National Energy Regulator must provide the required information in collaboration with the PBMR company / Eskom and organisations such as Earth Life Africa;

• The development of a Charter for Community Involvement by Eskom would ensure that all groups, residents and other spheres of government are clear about the principles that guide efforts to involve the community. Within this Charter community consultation guidelines must be included;

• The emergency plan for the Koeberg site is addressed in the “Koeberg Nuclear Emergency Plan”, document number KAA 593. Upon completion of the proposed PBMR DPP, this plan needs to be revised to include the new plant;

• Establish an open forum by the PBMR company / Eskom, that meets on a regular basis including open days, special working sessions, information briefings and keeping the general public constantly up to date with any new developments;

• Consideration should be given to the establishment of a Social Monitoring and Steering Committee, comprising all major role players and affected and interested parties in the relevant Wards of the municipalities concerned, in order to ensure that vulnerable segments of the community will not be marginalised; and

• The formulation and communication/publication of the site safety plan might mitigate the intensity of the impact. Nuclear incidents, disasters, waste disposal incidents and possible effects on the communities of the area, must be addressed in the Site Safety Report of the PBMR DPP.

5.2.2. Creation of employment and business opportunities

Description of the impact

Opportunities for permanent employment and the provision of maintenance and general services required.

Assessment of the impact

It is important that local labour and suppliers should be used as far as possible for maintenance, service provision and any additional opportunities arising during the operational phase.

Duriing the operational phase it is estimated that approximately 100 job opportunities will be created. The staff component could be strengthened by an additional external staff complement of 30 people who will provide specific, appropriate skills to the PBMR DPP on an outsourced basis.

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Table 35: Permanent jobs created (Source: PBMR annual report 2007)

ESTIMATED NUMBER OF JOBS PER SKILL CATEGORY YEAR SKILLED SEMI-SKILLED UNSKILLED TOTAL 19 43 38 100

Table 36: Creation of employment and business opportunities

OPERATION PHASE Nature Positive Intensity Low Extent Local Duration Long term Probability Probable Confidence Medium Significance Medium Level of significance after mitigation Medium Non-Reversibility No Cumulative impacts Any additional permanent opportunities created would be a positive cumulative impact to existing and future developments. Longer involvement provides opportunity for the provision of maintenance and general services required. A cumulative positive impact is foreseen on poverty eradication, addressing unemployment and stimulates economic growth in the local area. This could contribute towards the development of the individual’s self-esteem, a sense of pride and a positive perspective on the future. New business opportunities will have a cumulative positive impact on other related businesses down the value chain. Irreplaceable resources No

Recommended enhancement measures

The following specific measures are suggested to maximize the benefits related to employment creation:

• Where possible, on-the-job training should be provided to locals, to develop their existing skills and to ensure that they receive skills that are transferable to other sectors; • Eskom could provide further information to local businesses and structures like the tourist and business forums regarding direct business opportunities and service provision associated with the PBMR DPP during normal operations; and • A skills development programme should be introduced whereby international employees train and mentor South African staff members to ensure transference of skills.

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5.2.3. Impact on property prices

Description of the impact

This variable relates to the concern that the development of the proposed PBMR DPP may have a negative impact on property values in Melkbosstrand and Duynefontein. Impacts on property values are discussed in terms of normal plant operation and draws on the historic predicted and real impact that the establishment of the KNPS had on property values.

Assessment of the impact

It is not anticipated that the proposed PBMR DPP would have a marked deleterious effect on property values during normal operation and that other factors (such as interest rates and economic indicators) appear to play a significantly more important role. According to Conningarth Economists (August 2008), estate agents believe that the direction of city expansion will be to the north. Urban growth in the form of holiday resorts and retirement complexes have already leapfrogged the Koeberg NPS reserve and Atlantis to Grotto Bay, Yzerfontein and Jakkalsfontein.

The opening of the Koeberg NPS in 1984 has not stopped the growth of Blaauwbergstrand (which has been particularly rapid in the last 15-20 years) and Melkbosstrand where growth has been more recent. Beachfront houses at Blaauwbergstrand are popular buys for foreigners who have paid up to R16.5 million for a property. At Big Bay, house prices have been in the R4-6 million range. The Atlantic Beach Golf Estate is a prime facility in Melkbosstrand with units selling for up to R3.5 million. Inland, the Durbanville area is highly sought after with property prices ranging from R2-4.5 million.

It is not foreseen that the proposed PBMR DPP will have much impact on property values during the operation phase.

Table 37: Negative impact on property prices

OPERATION PHASE Nature Neutral Intensity Low Extent Local Duration Long term Probability Improbable Confidence High Significance Low Level of significance after mitigation Low Non-Reversibility Low Cumulative impacts Low None foreseen Irreplaceable resources No

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Recommended mitigation measures

• Pro active steps by Eskom in the re-evaluation and updating of existing emergency and evacuation plans as well as the implementation of any specific required actions and/or measures flowing from this will assist in ensuring that property prices are not affected negatively.

5.2.4. Impact on tourism

Description of the impact

The concern raised is that the proposed PBMR DPP will impact negatively on the tourism industry in the area.

Assessment of the impact

Tourism is one of the biggest industries in the world. SA leads the continent in international tourism, and the Western Cape has a major share in national tourism turnover. The sector contributes approximately 10 per cent of the Provincial economy and some 7 per cent of employment. It is highly diversified and offers a very comprehensive product range, spanning traditional sightseeing as well as more specialised services such as eco or health and medical tourism.

Society has certain perceptions about nuclear technology with regard to the dangers associated with radiation. From a tourism perspective, these perceptions may influence the decision and willingness to visit and spend time in an area.

The tourism industry is one of the main drivers of the local economy of Koeberg. As such, it is important to determine and assess the degree to which nuclear facilities may ultimately influence a person to visit the area. The impact on the tourism industry will also be reflected in the local and regional economies in terms of criteria such as employment and the Gross Geographic Product (GGP).

According to Maasdorp (2007), the area around the proposed PBMR DPP has almost 250 businesses that were identified via the internet. The areas included Melkbosstrand, Milnerton, Bloubergstrand, Table View, Pinelands, Goodwood and Sunset Beach in the south; Bellville, Parow, Kuilsriver and Durbanville in the southeast; and Atlantis to the north. The key tourism asset located immediately adjacent to the propose PBMR DPP is Melkbosstrand. This site does not feature as a strategic tourism facility in the Western Cape Integrated Tourism Development Framework. Much of the tourism in the immediate vicinity is locally based, with limited appeal as a national destination. Most of the tourists visiting the area, visit the area as part of visiting family and friends.

Cape Town tourism plays a key role in both the provincial and national economy, accounting for 21.6 % of international arrivals and 26.7 % of international visitors’ spend in 2005 (Maasdorp, 2007).

For the purpose of this assessment, a distinction was made between the primary, secondary and tertiary study areas. The distinction between these groupings is their geographic location relative to the existing Koeberg Power Station. A broad definition of each study area is as follows: • Primary area — the area within the immediate vicinity of Koeberg which includes: Duynefontein, Melkbosstrand, Blaauwberg and Milnerton; ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 93 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

• Secondary area — the area further away but still within a reasonable distance of Koeberg or within direct sight. This area includes: Table Mountain (cable car), City of Cape Town (V&A Waterfront), Robben Island and the Century City Complex; and • Tertiary area — the area that is furthest away from Koeberg, which includes areas such as: Camps Bay, Hout Bay, Simons’ Town, Durbanville, Stellenbosch and Darling. For the purposes of this assessment, the local tourism industry refers to the primary tourism industry. Urban Econ conducted a structured survey in 2002 17 that involved both the demand and supply side of tourism. The Tourism Study was undertaken to determine and assess the current perceptions within the tourism industry (both demand and supply) of nuclear technology, with specific reference to the use of PBMR technology at the Koeberg site. There is no evidence that the results and conclusions from this survey are not relevant to 2007. On the supply side, a two-pronged approach was followed. The one leg involved discussions with some of the main stakeholders in the local tourism industry, whereas the second leg involved a survey at specific tourism establishments that included B&Bs, hotels and self-catering facilities. The results of the survey appear to indicate that a 7% of the tourists may reconsider to visit the area again if the PBMR DPP project is implemented. However, these results have to be interpreted in context, and the following considerations need to be taken into account. The survey seems to suggest that the development of the PBMR DPP will have a negative effect on the economy via the tourism industry, as fewer people may visit the area. Even in the event of a decrease in the number of visitors to the area, this should not have a dramatic negative effect on the economy for the following reasons: • The reduction in the number of people visiting the area will in all probability only occur in the short term, as people will in time “get use to” the existence of the plant. Secondly, the annual overall growth of the local tourism industry (i.e. the annual growth in the number of visitors) should cancel this decrease. • Some of the engineers and technicians employed at or visiting the plant, stay at the local tourism establishments as they offer affordable rates and are closely located to the plant. This source of visitors could offset the “loss” of the others.

It can therefore be concluded, that the possible negative effect implied by less tourists visiting the area, may only last for the short term, and may be cancelled out by workers staying at the local establishments.

Interpretation of survey results Although most respondents had negative perceptions on nuclear technology and the Koeberg plant (those who were informed about it), it had no effect on their decision to visit Cape Town. 59% of the respondents had visited Cape Town before and 93% indicated that they would visit Cape Town again, even after being informed about Koeberg and the proposed PBMR DPP. The most common reason given was that many of the respondents were from countries that have nuclear power plants, such

17 Tourism Impact Assessment Survey,2002 ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 94 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment as Germany and the United States. They are familiar with and used to living with nuclear technology and do not consider it as a significant, direct danger.

Table 38: Negative impact on tourism industry OPERATION PHASE Nature Negative Intensity Low Extent National Duration Long term Probability Improbable Confidence High Significance Low Level of significance after mitigation Low Non-Reversibility Medium Cumulative impacts Less tourists visiting the area could have a cumulative impact on various businesses in the area such as guest houses, hotels, recreational facilities, tourist attractions etc. This could impact negatively on economic growth. Irreplaceable resources No

Recommended enhancement measures • Eskom must strengthen the role played by the visitors centre at Koeberg to provide valuable nuclear and PBMR DPP information to tourists, both local and from abroad. • Eskom must make information available regarding the process related to construction and operation of the proposed PBMR DPP, in various formats to tourism structures, attractions, accommodations facilities, etc. • Eskom must facilitate, on a regular basis, information sessions and consultation with the various role-players in the tourism industry in order to ensure that they can plan and manage possible impacts on the tourism industry over the short term during construction, but also over the longer-term period when the operational phase has started.

5.2.5. Sense of place

Description of the impact

This concern relates to the possibility that the PBMR DPP may contribute negatively to the current characteristics, or feeling / perception held by people, that make areas like Melkbosstrand and Duynefontein a special and unique place, or to those that foster a sense of authentic human attachment and belonging to their neighbourhoods.

Assessment of the impact

The sense of place may be affected either because of real or perceived impacts from the new development, and changes in the character of the area due to increased urbanisation, and increased settlement densities, noise levels and traffic, and the ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 95 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment change to visual character of the surrounds. The ‘spirit of a place’ is largely created by and a consequence of the sense of community.

Although the area around the proposed PBMR DPP is part of the City of Cape Town, demarcated within a number of wards, the sense of place is still very strong within communities. This is clear when people are asked where they live and they do not answer Cape Town but rather Bloubergstrand, Duynefontein, Melkbosstrand, Milnerton etc. The informal settlements follow the same procedure and refer to the name of the settlement and not to the neighbourhood or ward name. Residents will refer to living in Rietbosvlei and not Melkbosstrand.

As the proposed PBMR DPP would take place on a site currently occupied by the KNPS, impact on sense of place can be expected to be limited. However, the surrounding communities of Atlantis, Melkbosstrand and Duynefontein must feel that they are recognized as a host community that should benefit from the development as much as possible. Increasing perceptions of being a “dumping ground”, particularly for energy generation projects would contribute to the impact more power developments have on people’s “sense of place”. Good relations and communication with the affected communities must be maintained.

Visible benefits of the proposed PBMR DPP and the perception of the area as an “energy hub” for South Africa may acquire a positive connotation, which could change the status of this impact.

“Sense of place” essentially alters over time. The proposed PBMR DPP is situated next to Koeberg NPS, in a region increasingly characterized by industrial and other power developments such as Atlantis Industria and Gas turbines. This will eventually become part of the area’s “sense of place”.

Table 39: Sense of place

CONSTRUCTION PHASE Nature Negative Intensity Low Extent Local Duration Medium Probability Probable Confidence Medium Significance Medium Level of significance after mitigation Low Non-Reversibility Low Cumulative impacts Low Impacts related to the proposed PBMR DPP can be considered cumulative to numerous other industrial and other developments in the area that may be perceived as changing the sense of place and the viewing of the area as becoming more industrialized.

This perception could culminate in resentment and mobilizing of interest groups and communities against further development. Irreplaceable resources No

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Recommended mitigation measures

• Maintain good relationships with local communities through regular, inclusive stakeholder engagement and consultation processes.

5.2.6. Visual impacts

Description of the impact

The PBMR DPP will change the visual character and quality of the setting.The change is due to the scale, the height above ground and the lateral extent of ancillary buildings. These large and extensive industrial type structures are located near existing large structures, the KNPS, the associated transmission lines and the central store. Consideration needs to be given to how the new structures will compare to the existing plant, for example will they be bigger or smaller?

The proposed structures can have the effect of compounding the visual impact or of reducing the contrast in scale of the buildings relative to the surrounding landscape and setting.

Assessment of the impact

The conclusion drawn from the Visual Impact Assessment Study (November 2007), is that the contribution of the PBMR DPP to the visual impact of the existing local and regional setting will be minor. This is a result of the large structures and transmission lines of the KNPS that create the visual complexity and visual intrusion of the views from Duynefontein and Melkbosstrand properties. The screening and the merging effect of the KNPS on the PBMR DPP will reduce, to some extent, the visual intrusion of views experienced from the land uses directly south and east of the facility.

The main aspect that influenced the above conclusion, is the presence of the visually dominant KNPS and the associated transmission lines and buildings, all of which are visible to some degree from within a 10 km radius of the site. This is due to the landform that slopes gently towards the coastline and the extended visibility at night as the illuminated area is extended.

Table 40: Visual impacts

CONSTRUCTION PHASE Nature Negative Intensity Low Extent Local Duration Long term Probability Probable Confidence High Significance Medium Level of significance after mitigation Low Non-Reversibility Low Cumulative impacts None is foreseen Irreplaceable resources No

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Recommended mitigation measures

The visual impact will be caused by construction activities and material around the site. Therefore, mitigation during construction should screen these sites from views along their perimeter. It is recommended that, attached to the 2 m high construction site fence should be 2 m high green shade cloth. The position of the cloth on the fence will be determined on site by where views into the construction site are possible from surrounding residential areas and public roads.

General mitigation measures are proposed to reduce the visual impact of the PBMR DPP, these include:

• Colour The use of a light blue-grey for the large structures with the stack (chimney) a very light grey. A darker band around the latter structures to reduce their vertical scale.

• Screens The construction of temporary screens during construction around related working areas and laydown areas, the large laydown area on the R27, in particular.

The creation of earth screen berms near sensitive land users e.g. residential areas. However, consideration should be given to the associated impacts caused during their construction and stabilisation such as dust, noise and rehabilitation.

• Lighting The design of lighting of the structures and areas to be done by a suitably experienced person with the objective to reduce “light spill”. Aspects to incorporate will be down lighting, lighting colour, extent of necessary illumination, light fitting to direct the light and block light from sensitive adjacent land uses such as residential areas.

5.2.7. Future land use planning in the area

Description of the impact

This impact deals with the concern that the proposed PBMR DPP may affect in a negative way on future land use planning in the area.

Assessment of the impact

The specialist study by CNdV (January 2008) indicate the following current land uses:

• Zoning and Land Use

Land uses correspond well with the zoning ascribed to the various erven. Urban land uses (accommodating residential, business, industry, social and education facilities and utility services) are limited to the coastal suburbs from Duynefontein to Atlantic Beach Estate in the south west and portions of Atlantis Industria in the north east.

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The majority of the Study Area is used for farming activities. This corresponds well with the data on current zoning.

• Vacant Erven

Vacant sites in urban areas were highlighted since they offer the potential for further development. Vacant erven within the PAZ can only be developed in line with the current zoning and no enhanced rights will be considered. One vacant erf, zoned Single Residential, was recorded within the PAZ. Most vacant erven were recorded in Atlantis Industria, located beyond the PAZ.

• Time of Use and Occupation

Residential erven (zoned for residential purposes) are assumed to be utilized on a 24-hour basis. The areas between and including Duynefontein and Atlantic Beach Estate accommodates the majority of residential uses within the Study Area. Other urban-type uses (commercial, social, etc) tend to operate and be occupied on an 8- hour basis. Industrial activity in Atlantis Industria operates on an 8 hour or 24 hour shift cycle. The time of use and occupation for the rural / agricultural lands has not been established.

The emergency planning zones for Koeberg are characterised by 5 km and 16 km radius around the site. The 5 km radius is referred to as the Protective Action Zone (PAZ) and is characterised by the following criteria (NNR, 2005):

• No applications for further development rights for properties falling within or intersecting with this area (either through rezoning, subdivision, departure from land use or council’s consent, including application for a guest house or second dwelling), which may result in an increase in the population or transient population, may be approved, unless such a development is place bound. In circumstances where rezoning or subdivision rights are entrenched in the existing property rights, these rights may, however, be exercised; and • All public in all sectors i.e. 360° must be evacua ted within four hours to designated mass care centres. The evacuation plan must be adequately demonstrated by means of a traffic evacuation model, which must be accepted by the NNR.

Developments are accepted within the 5-16 km radius, referred to as the Urgent Protective Zone (UPZ) if it meets the following criteria:

• No more than 650 000 people are allowed (NNR 2005/2006); and • The public can be evacuated to designated mass care centres within a 67.5° sector within 16 hours, which must also be adequately demonstrated by a traffic evacuation model and accepted by the NNR (NNR, 2005).

The area within or intersected by the 5-km PAZ can only be developed in terms of its current zoning, unless enhanced development rights are required for and related to electricity generation at Koeberg Nuclear Power Station.

Please note that the City of Cape Town confirmed that development applications within the study area are limited to departures from the provisions of the zoning scheme in the Melkbosstrand region.

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Table 41: Future land use planning

CONSTRUCTION PHASE Nature Neutral Intensity Low Extent Local Duration Long term Probability Improbable Confidence High Significance Low Level of significance after mitigation Low Non-Reversibility Low Cumulative impacts None Irreplaceable resources No

Recommended mitigation measures No additional mitigation measures are required

5.2.8. Risks associated with nuclear incidents

Description impact

Typically, the term “risk” is referred to as the product of a harmful consequence of an activity or event and the probability of its occurrence. In general risk needs to be seen as a subjective experience that is felt by, and is different for, everyone.

This concern relates to the possibility that the perceived risks associated with nuclear incidents, e.g. fuel storage and transportation, radioactive waste storage and transportation will change the behaviour of some community members in a negative way. Internal and external initiating events are listed in the Basic Licensing Requirements for the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (NNR, 2007).

Internal Events include: failure of pipes, vessels, tanks, pumps and valves; air and water ingress to the core; transients; loss of power supply; flooding; internal missiles; load drop; internal explosion and internal fire.

External Events include natural hazards and man made hazards. Examples of natural hazards include: seismic event; weather phenomena; precipitation and external flooding; water pollution; coastal erosion and tsunamis. Man made hazards include: aircraft crashes; explosion pressure waves; toxic, corrosive or combustible gases; external fires and terrorist attacks. (Van Blerck, 2008).

Assessment of the impact

The perceived risk of something going wrong with all the activities around the PBMR DPP site, may result in some residents moving away. The effects of exposure to risk (whether real or perceived), is a reality that must be dealt with. If this is not properly managed, it may lead to interest group activity and social mobilization against the proposed PBMR DPP.

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The perceived possibility of increased risks that the operational phase of the PBMR DPP may bring, could discourage people from moving into the area. A number of housing projects are currently in process or close to the start of construction. After consultation with the developers, no evidence could be found that they will stop the developments. However, some potential buyers may decide to invest elsewhere.

There are a number of occupational safety risks associated with the operational activity e.g. falling objects. Compliance with the health and safety legislation would be required.

The reduction of waste at the design stage is facilitated by the application of good practices for radiological zoning, provision of active drainage, provision of active ventilation, appropriate surface finishes, recycling of slightly contaminated water, and the use of current best practices for the handling of solid waste generated by controlled zone clothing. Further studies are in progress such as the investigation of a cryogenic loop on the helium purification system.

Most of the activity in waste is evolved in the MPS. The management of activity levels in the MPS is therefore the first objective. The performance of necessary tasks will result in the generation of waste and the evolution of this waste is monitored to ensure that no excess waste is released. (Response to the EIA Information Request 07 September 2007)

The only high-level waste produced by PBMR is the spent fuel. This is stored on the premises for the operating life with a possible extension of another 40 years. Final disposal depends on the integrated high-level waste plans of the government and Eskom. Due to the excellent retention capabilities of the graphite matrix and the coated particles, the intention is to go for final disposal as buried waste in containers made for the purpose. (Response to the EIA Information Request 07 September 2007).

Currently approximately 48 low to medium radioactive waste consignments are transported from KNPS to Vaalputs in the Northern Cape Province annually as part of the normal operations of the KNPS. Low to medium level radioactive waste from the proposed PBMR DPP will be stored at Vaalputs (Northern Cape Province) and will follow the same route as KNPS’s radioactive waste consignments.

In 2001-2002, an EIA was undertaken for the proposed manufacturing of nuclear fuel at Pelindaba in the North-West Province for the proposed PBMR, and the associated transportation of nuclear materials. (EIA Report September 2008)

Based on the risk assessment undertaken, the above issues are all related to human factor aspects. Therefore, a key conclusion drawn was that management systems must be put in place for all the aspects related to the loss of raw material and fuel spheres; systems and equipment to deal with the external effects of fires; and to assure that the design for external impacts is sound.

In terms of transportation of fuel to the proposed PBMR site, the EIA showed that:

• There is no generic advantage of road over rail as the preferred mode of transport; • Road is the preferable mode of transport due to more limited handling, low volumes and low frequency of movement of materials;

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• Radiological impacts from transport are low, due to package design and safety controls; and • In the event of an in-transit spill of nuclear material, limited impact on the environment are foreseen, due to mass and low radioactivity of the nuclear material.

The EIR therefore recommended that the proposed plant and transportation of nuclear material be authorised as there is no significant environmental risk, provided that:

• The proposed PBMR DPP is authorised; • The Environmental Management Plans and recommendations contained in the EIR are implemented; • The framework Transport Plan is developed into an agreed final Transport Plan in conjunction with the authorities; • The recommendations of the Social Impact Assessment are formalised and implemented; • Extensive environmental monitoring be conducted as recommended (radiological/non-radiological); and • Financial provision be made for decommissioning and long-term storage of radioactive waste.

After the consideration of a variety of appeals, the DEAT upheld the positive record of decision for this EIA, with detailed conditions.

Table 42: Risks associated with nuclear incidents

CONSTRUCTION PHASE Nature Negative Intensity Low Extent Local - Regional Duration Long term Probability Improbable Confidence Medium Significance Medium Level of significance after mitigation Low Non-Reversibility Low Cumulative impacts Increase in risk activities related radioactive waste transportation, fuel storage and emission, could contribute to increased negative perception towards the PBMR DPP and any future projects. Irreplaceable resources No

Recommended mitigation measures

The following mitigation measures are recommended:

• Distribution of understandable information in order for communities to gain understanding in order to put their fears to rest or to manage it properly without negative behaviour changes. A clear challenge lies in the accuracy and independence of information;

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• A comprehensive awareness creation campaign is to include the dissemination of information about energy generation, and nuclear and other technologies; • The reports of the Environmental Control Officer should be disseminated to assuage unsubstantiated public fears; • The development of a Charter for Community Involvement and public participation by Eskom will ensure that all groups, residents and other spheres of government are clear about the principles that guide efforts to involve the community. Within this Charter community consultation guidelines must be included; • Establish an open forum by the PBMR company / Eskom, that meets on a regular basis including open days, special working sessions, information briefings and keeping the general public constantly up to date with any new developments. Consideration should be given to the establishment of a Social Monitoring and Steering Committee, comprising all major role players and affected and interested parties in the relevant Wards of the municipalities concerned, in order to ensure that vulnerable segments of the community will not be marginalised; and • Utilization of the media as a medium of information distribution should be used by Eskom in combination with the other mitigation measures mentioned above.

The NNR has published RD-0018, which gives maximum allowable doses to the public for events with different frequencies. It also requires application of ALARA and has a number of other general requirements. Some licensing guides and directives are also issued dealing with core design, graphite material, QA etc. All these are used as design requirements for PBMR DPP. However, beyond these requirements PBMR has formulated a number of goals to be achieved in the design. These can be summarised as follows:

• The design for PBMR must ensure that significant fuel damage is not possible under any conditions that can be predicted; • Response to accident conditions must not rely on active systems to meet the requirements in (1). This includes having to add primary coolant or repair the pressure boundary; and • There shall be no need for operator actions to meet requirements in (1) for the first 24 hours. (This does exclude actions to minimise the damage to the plant and/or the release of activity in that period). (Response to the EIA Information Request 07 September 2007).

An application for a nuclear installation license requires, amongst others, the development of a Radioactive Waste Management Programme (RWMP). This is consistent with the NNR Basic Licensing Requirements for the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (NNR, 2007a) and the NNR Guideline for Applying for a Nuclear Authorisation (NNR, 2007b).

Measures pertaining to a RWMP include the need to ensure that the resultant radioactive waste meets the requirements for safe handling, transport, processing, storage, and disposal, as applicable to national regulations, and international requirements and recommendations.

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More specifically, the RWMP should make provision for (IAEA, 2002):

• keeping the generation of radioactive waste to the minimum practicable, in terms of both activity and volume, by using suitable technology; • reusing and recycling materials to the extent possible; • classifying and segregating waste appropriately, and maintaining an accurate inventory for each radioactive waste stream, with account taken of the available options for clearance and disposal; • collecting, characterizing and storing radioactive waste so that it is acceptably safe; • providing adequate storage capacity for anticipated radioactive waste arising; • ensuring that radioactive waste can be retrieved at the end of the storage period; • treating and conditioning radioactive waste in a way that is consistent with safe storage and disposal; • handling and transporting radioactive waste safely; • controlling effluent discharges to the environment; • carrying out monitoring for compliance at source and in the environment; • maintaining facilities and equipment for waste collection, processing and storage in order to ensure safe and reliable operation; • monitoring the status of the containment for the radioactive waste in the storage location; • monitoring changes in the characteristics of the radioactive waste, in particular if storage is continued for extended periods, by means of inspection and regular analysis; and • initiating, as necessary, research and development to improve existing methods for processing radioactive waste or to develop new methods, and to ensure that suitable methods are available for the retrieval of stored radioactive waste.

While the national nuclear regulatory framework does not provide specific requirements for the management of radioactive waste, from generation to disposal, it does require the establishment, implementation, and maintenance of a RWMP.

The RWMP for the PBMR DPP is still being compiled and will form part of the SAR submitted to the NNR in support of the application for nuclear authorisation (NNR, 2007b) in terms of the National Nuclear Regulator Act (Act No. 47 of 1999). While the NNR Licensing requirements for the PBMR do not contain specific requirements of what should be included in the RWMP, the RD 0018 licensing agreement (Appendix D) and Radioactive Waste Management Policy and Strategy for the Republic of South Africa (DME 2005) (Appendix E), provide further specifications to be complied with.

5.3. DECOMMISSIONING PHASE IMPACTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

The long life span of 40 years of the proposed PBMR DPP and the uncertainties of future growth and development in the City of Cape Town and the West Coast area, make the identification and assessment of possible impacts problematic. It is not feasible to assess around assumptions about the future realities of the mentioned area combined with potential growth in the nuclear industry.

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Two of the key potential impacts associated with the decommissioning phase include:

• Increased fear levels related to nuclear waste and radiation; and • Influx of temporary workers and job seekers.

5.3.1. Increased fear levels related to nuclear waste and radiation

Description of the impact

Fear levels may be higher during decommissioning due to the presence of nuclear waste and the perceived and real risks related to radiation etc.

Assessment of the impact

The Radioactive Waste Management specialist study (Blerk, June 2008), indicates that the radioactive waste management practices envisaged for the PBMR DPP is consistent with the IAEA guidelines for a Radioactive Waste Management Programme for nuclear power stations, from generation to disposal.

Blerk indicated in his study that the Decontamination System developed for the PBMR DPP provides for decontamination services during its operational life, while the decommissioning strategy for the PBMR DPP after 40 years safe enclosure, incorporates decontamination as part of the strategy. These decontamination activities are consistent with the manner in which decontamination of nuclear material is generally undertaken internationally.

Table 43: Increased fear levels related to nuclear waste and radiation

Decommissioning Nature Negative Intensity Medium Extent Local to regional Duration Long term Probability Probable Confidence Medium Significance Medium Level of significance after mitigation Low Non-Reversibility Medium Cumulative impacts Not possible to determine – depend on various factors Irreplaceable resources No

Recommended mitigation measures

The following mitigation measures are recommended:

• See mitigation measures under Operational Phase

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5.3.2. Impact commensurate with influx of temporary workers and job seekers

Description of the impact

This category deals with the influx of temporary workers and job seekers to the site during decommissioning phase.

Assessment of the impact

It is difficult to anticipate the impact on temporary workers and social behaviour patterns in 40 or more years. Too many factors regarding growth and development in the area will influence social behaviour,. Against the background of the population growth of Cape Town and surrounding areas, especially the West Coast, no more anti-social behaviour is foreseen as with the construction phase.

Table 44: Impact commensurate with influx of temporary workers and job seekers

DECOMMISSIONING Nature Negative Intensity Low Extent Local to regional Duration Short term Probability Probable Confidence Medium Significance Low Level of significance after Low mitigation Non-Reversibility Low Cumulative impacts Will depend on future development in the area Irreplaceable resources No

Recommended mitigation measures

• No mitigation measures are recommended

5.4. ASSESSMENT OF NO DEVELOPMENT OPTION

Description of the impact

The property will remain in its current vacant and un-used state. In the context of this project, the no-go alternative implies that the PBMR DPP will not be developed.

Assessment of the impact

The no-go alternative will imply that virtually none of the identified impacts of proceeding with the project will be incurred. Conversely, selection of the no-go alternative will also result in the benefits of the project not being realized. The benefits of the PBMR DPP include the demonstration of the feasibility and viability of ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 106 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment the technology as a means to produce electricity as part of South Africa’s energy supply. In addition, should the no-go alternative be selected, the positive impact of the PBMR DPP on macro-economic performance indicators will be lost. The no-go development option would result in a significant opportunity cost. The opportunity costs would include the loss of employment and business opportunities with both of the construction and operation phase of the project.

The selection of the no-go alternative will also result in the negative impacts of the project not being realised. Aspects like the inflow of unemployed job seekers, fear of perceived risks (although Koeberg NPS is a reality), additional pressure on service delivery, negative impacts on individual, family and community living and safety issues would not be realized if the no-go alternative is selected.

Table 45: Assessment of the no development option

NO – GO OPTION Nature Negative Intensity Low Extent National Duration Long term Probability Definite Confidence High Significance High Level of significance after mitigation High Non-Reversibility Low Cumulative impacts No positive contribution towards electricity supply Irreplaceable resources No

Recommended mitigation measures

• The no-development option is not recommended

6. CONCLUSIONS RESULTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1. GENERAL CONCLUSIONS Based on the Socio-Economic Impact Assessment a number of general conclusions are made: ● None of the impacts identified constitute a fatal flaw. ● Fear related to the perception of nuclear accidents contribute to the potential risk that people experience. ● Biased, incomplete or wrong information have the potential to trigger the occurrences of the Nocebo Effect. ● A negative perception, linked to mobilization against the PBMR DPP, seems to link closely with general anti-nuclear feelings. There needs to be a clear understanding by all role-players of the legitimate concerns that communities and individuals may have.

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● The PBMR DPP will have a positive impact on all of the macro- economic performance indicators. ● Utilizing economic opportunities require entrepreneurship and skills. Training programmes are needed to ensure that previously disadvantaged communities and individuals can benefit from the opportunities to be created by the PBMR DPP. ● Issues regarding storage, management, health and safety, and future spatial planning must stay priority issues on the agenda. ● Increase in crime and anti-social behaviour can be expected.

6.2 SUMMARY OF RESULTS

6.2.1 Construction phase impacts The most significant impacts during the construction phase relate to influx of job seekers and the creation of employment and business opportunities. It is estimated that a total of 2 490 jobs will be created during the construction period. The wages associated with these jobs contribute an estimated R600 million towards low-income households. The total capital expenditure during the construction phase is estimated to be in the region of R16 billion in June 2006 real terms. The construction phase of the proposed development will therefore created significant employment and business opportunities. The potential implications in terms of local benefits are highlighted by the baseline socio-economic conditions in the area, specifically for the HDI communities of Atlantis, Mamre, informal settlements such as Ogieskraal, Milkwood Place, Frankdale, De Noon, Marconi Beam, Welbeloond and Witsand. Unemployment status in Ward 29 (Atlantis) total 4 311 persons and in Ward 32 (Koeberg) 4 239 persons. Unsuccessful job seekers boast varies negative challenges if large numbers reside in the area and therefore place additional pressure on social, economic and environmental resources. The potential for increase in crime and social misconduct exists. Negative impacts related to construction workers on site, traffic, noise and dust impacts are limited and can be mitigated successfully.

Table 46: Key impacts during construction phase

CONSTRUCTION PHASE Impact Mitigation Significance Status Presence of Without Medium Negative construction With Low Positive workers on site Influx of job Without Medium Negative seekers With Low Neutral Traffic impacts Without Medium Negative With Low Positive Noise and dust Without Medium Negative impacts With Low Positive Creation of Without Medium Positive

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 108 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment employment and With High Positive business opportunities

6.2.2 Operational phase impacts The impact on health and safety on the negative side, and the creation of employment and business opportunities on the positive side are regarded as the most significant impacts during the operational phase. The most significant potential negative impact relates to the perceived safety and health risks. The perceived risks related to nuclear incidents need proper management to ensure that the communities are well informed. The health and safety standards provide clear guidelines and mitigation measures to address peoples’ concerns on health and safety issues. The existing safety record of Koeberg plays a vital role to set an example towards the safe management of a nuclear facility. The concern that the proposed development will have a negative affect on the property prices or areas such as Melkbosstrand, Blaauwberg and other affluent areas cannot be substantiated. Information available indicates that despite having Koeberg on its doorstep, Melkbosstrand is becoming a sought after residential area, because it offers affordable seaside living in a relatively crime free, social environment. Cape Town Tourism plays a key role in both the provincial and national economy, accounting for 21.6% of international arrivals and 26.7% of international visitors. From tourism studies undertaken the reduction in the number of people visiting the area will, in all probability, only occur in the short term as people will in time “get use to” the existence of the PBMR DPP. It is also foreseen that some of the engineers and technicians employed at or visiting the plant, may stay at the local tourism establishments, as they are closely located to the plant. It can therefore be concluded that a possible negative effect implied by less tourists visiting the area, may only last for the short term and may be cancelled out by workers and other visitors staying at the local establishments. Impact on the sense of place is only foreseen on a limited scale in the short term. No impact is foreseen regarding changing in future land use planning within exclusion zones. The perceived risks related to nuclear incidents need proper management to ensure that the communities are well informed.

Table 47: Key impacts during operational phase

OPERATIONAL PHASE Impact Mitigation Significance Status Impact on health Without Medium Negative and safety With Low Neutral Creation of Without Medium Positive employment and With Medium Positive business opportunities Impact on property Without Low Negative prices With Low Positive Impact on tourism Without Low Negative With Low Positive / neutral

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 109 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

Impact on sense of Without Medium Negative place With Low Positive / neutral

Visual impacts Without Medium Negative With Low Positive Future land use Without Low Neutral planning in the With Low Neutral area

Risks associated Without Medium Negative with nuclear With Low Neutral incidents during construction phase

6.2.3 Decommissioning phase impacts Due to the long life span of 40 years of the PBMR DPP assessment of impacts during decommissioning is not really possible because too many assumptions need to be made. The current growth and development of the City of Cape Town and the West Coast is difficult to predict over the next 40 years, especially against the background of existing economic realities.

Table 48: Key impacts during decommissioning phase

DECOMMISSIONING PHASE Impact Mitigation Significance Status Increased fear Without Medium Negative levels related to With Low Negative nuclear waste and radiation Influx of temporary Without Low Negative workers and job With Low Negative seekers

7. RECOMMENDATIONS

The following recommendations are made:

● Continue with the process of consultation and involvement of communities in the nuclear energy debate, policies and strategies; ● Continue the process of open communication and the flow of information to address fears that lead to perception of risk and a negative change in behaviour. Establish risk communication and risk management as a two-way process; ● Continue to pay attention to community outrage factors and concerns; ● Empower communities, individuals and businesses to benefit from the opportunities created by the PBMR DPP; and

ESKOM PBMR DPP EIA MAY 2009 110 Revised Socio- Economic Impact Assessment

● In order to enhance the opportunities and mitigate the potential negative impacts, the mitigation measures contained in this report should be implemented.

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