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Enable Mobile Ecosystem on Intel Platforms

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Enable Mobile Ecosystem on Intel Platforms Mobility Ecosystem business models and ecosystem in change Oliver Buschmann October 22, 2013 Intel confidential — Do Not Forward Key ecosystem & business model changes Android rising Verticali- Device zation & composition UX race China low- ‘Subsidizers’ cost emerging Intel confidential History of Smartphone ecosystem disruption Symbian iOS Blackberry Palm Android Windows Disruption Disruption Wave 2 Disruption Wave 1 Low Cost Wave 3? Integration Modular 3 Intel confidential Ecosytems verticalize with different Business Monetization Data & Transaction Revenue Advertizing Adv / ~$44B Search: Ads, Web Svc: Transaction $3 B $3 B Apps & Revenue SW & Content: $12B Media, eCom. Services ~$20 B Apps : $ND Revenue Apps : Applicat.: ~$1B $27 B OS OS $30 B Consoles, Device Devices Devices SP, Tb, Wb: Tablets Hardware $145 B $104B $5B $13 B Si & Mfg Si Revenue $14 B Revenue Legend: Observed/Company reported Supposition Core monetization area 4 Intel confidential The race for best User Experience Leadership capable today Solution in market, not currently leadershipNo solution in market or limited 2013 UX Ecosystem Landscape traction/capability Capability Intel Apple Google Microsoft Samsung Qualcomm Personal Nuance Genie Siri Google Now N/A – Bing S-Voice Platform focus Assistant Intel PA Notifications Wallet Nuance Bing HW accel Speech / NLU Siri / Nuance Google Voice S-Voice / Nuance HW accel, LPAL Tell Me LPAL Personal Personal Assistant Location Intel LBS, Chipset Maps Maps Maps CSR / Android iZat Context CSP, Sensor Hub Siri Google Now Context Health sensors Gimbal Samsung ID, Identity FedID, IPT AppleID Google+ ID Microsoft ID SecureMSM KNOX Dashboard, iTunes, iCloud SkyDrive, Bing Personal Data DataBank Drive AllShare, Content Gimbal Passbook Xbox Gold Play Data Data Bank AdSense/Word Advertising / Personalized iAd s Bing Ads Gimbal Personalization Services iTunes Play Google/Google Samsung ID, Identity FedID, IPT AppleID Microsoft ID SecureMSM + ID KNOX BYOD SafeKey AppleID Chrome Bing Password Vault None SecureMSM YAP iCloud Keychain OpenID Windows Vault Picture, FP + OTP & SecureMSM, Biometrics YAP Android Facial SmartCard Facial No No Passwords facial expected OTP, NFC OTP, AD WiDi AirPlay Miracast, Dial, Smartglass AllJoyn, Skifta Multi-screen AllShare CCF AirDrop Chromecast Miracast Miracast Wireless Expected A4WP PMA None A4WP, Qi, PMA A4WP Charging Proprietary No No Wires Wireless Wireless Dock PC: (Wilocity) Thunderbold Docking WiGig Mobile: ~’15 Intel confidential NDK app share doubled since 2011 NDK APPS ARE GAINING SHARE KEY DRIVERS Top 100 apps 100 100 100 • Increasing need for 100% performance e.g. gaming • Keep up with (vertically optimized) iOS • Availability of 3rd party libraries and Non NDK engines to use with NDK NDK 0% 2011 2013 2014E Source: AppAnnie; LitSearch Intel confidential Multiple ecosystem ingredients required – Example location based services for indoor 1 Indoor location value chain: Exemplary Services, Apps, SDK, API Ecosystem players • Provision of apps, services OSVs, App developers • Creation of context Consumer Enterprise 2 Maps & PoI Ecosystem players Map & Point of Interest data OSVs, others 3 1 Infrastructure Ecosystem players Service/ Application/ SDK/ API Cloud Context generation & service provision Infrastructure element Infrastructure vendors, Client (e.g. WiFi AP, Cellular BTS) others Infrastructure location data OSVs, infra, others 4 2 Map & PoI 3 Infrastructure: 5 Device Wireless network Ecosystem players Data Infrastructure Mobile network connection Operators element Calc. of device location 5 Location Devices Ecosystem players data •Integration of all HW &SW Device OEMs 6 Location stack •Cal. of device location OS platform 6 4 Wireless Network Location stack Ecosystem players SW algorithm OS platform OSV SW algorithms for location Si vendors, OSV, others Si component Si components Si vendors Ingredient Value contribution Value flow = cloud database 11/8/2013 Intel confidential China Tech Ecosystem Explosion ACCELERATED RAMP CTE ENABLER & INHIBITORS Share of ww consumption (%) • ~30% lower prices 60% Tablet • Local supply chain Android • Domestic test bed & int’l 50% TAM distribution channel esp. Emerging markets Smartphone • Local engineering pool 40% • Turnkey solutions enable short TTM 30% Tablet ww TAM 20% • Not prioritized for Feature Phone WindowsRT 10% • Limited sophisticated R&D and innovation power 0% • Limited IP assets (except 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Huawei, ZTE) • No ARM license fee for leading edge Intel confidential Content service providers Emerging Content Service Providers with >50% share of tables <250$ Source: eMarketeer, IDC, Intel IMR 9 Intel confidential Key economic driver: Own Devices Can Generate 2-5x Incremental Revenue Avg. % purchased Incremental value via through Amazon Kindle Fire vs. OTT app 100% • ~2-5x transactional service 75% revenue share Amazon service rev. from Kindle Fire • ~3X ‘Prime’ subscription 50% adoption rate 25% • >$151 more revenue per device within first year Amazon service rev. from OTT app 0% 10 INTEL CONFIDENTIAL Source: Intel Survey results based on 500 screened respondents Intel confidential From single devices to device ensembles ecosystem Recon ICEdot Jet Crash Glasses Detector Wahoo HR Monitor Nike Fuelband Pebble Watch BTLE 11 Intel confidential Vision “Enable mobile ecosystem …and provide better on Intel Platforms … experiences” Content ISVs LINK ME Channels ODMs/IDHs OSVs KNOW ME OEMs HW IP EXPRESS ME FREE ME IA Intel confidential Intel confidential — Do Not Forward Abstract The mobile ecosystem has gone through substantial disruptions in the past few years and continues to evolve rapidly. Starting from Symbian, going to iOS and the fast ramp of Android has created 3 large ecosystems around Google/Android, Microsoft/Windows and Apple/iOS. Triggered by the vast success of the vertical model of combined HW and SW, most players try to verticalize, e.g. Microsoft offering surface or Google buying Motorola and offering Nexus or Google Glass. Especially with the rise of low-end tablets, we are part of the next disruption, triggered by China Tech players, which create a new ecosystem around low-end products and eventually disrupt also higher tier market segments. Looking into the future, we will see growth in a new class of business models, where phone, tablet and wearable hardware is no longer seen as a source of profits, but is treated as a distribution channel for digital products and services. Amazon has started a new class of service business model, which is likely to create the 4th large ecosystem. In this talk, I will walk through those key ecosystem changes and new emerging business models and their implications for the industry and Intel. Key trends: China CTE, Content subsidies, Android, Verticalization, much more complex interaction (function integration); Across OSs (Dual-OS, HTML5, Productivity on Android, …); system/ecosystem thinking (e.g. virtual shopping) Add Sources: IMR research, Andy, David Crawford, 14 Intel confidential.
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