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San Diego Watershed Basin Study

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San Diego Watershed Basin Study 1 RECLAMATIONManaging Water in the West 2 San Diego Watershed Basin Study 3 Task 2.1 – Water Supply and Demand Projections 4 Interim Report 5 6 7 U.S. Department of the Interior City of San Diego 8 Bureau of Reclamation Public Utilities Department January 2016 Mission Statements The mission of the City of San Diego Public Utilities Department is to ensure the quality, reliability, and sustainability of water, wastewater and recycled water services for the benefit of the ratepayers and citizens served. The mission of the Department of the Interior is to protect and provide access to our Nation’s natural and cultural heritage and honor our trust responsibilities to Indian Tribes and our commitments to island communities. The mission of the Bureau of Reclamation is to manage, develop, and protect water and related resources in an environmentally and economically sound manner in the interest of the American public. 9 10 Cover Photo: Clockwise from top left: Hodges Reservoir facing west; Lake Miramar facing west; the 11 City of San Diego’s Advanced Water Purification Demonstration Facility at the North City Water 12 Reclamation Plant; and Lake Murray facing north. 13 14 15 16 San Diego Watershed Basin Study 17 Task 2.1 – Water Supply and Demand Projections 18 Report 19 20 January 2016 21 22 Prepared by: 23 Bureau of Reclamation 24 Lower Colorado Region 25 Engineering Services Office 26 Allison Danner, Civil Engineer (Hydrologic) 27 28 Prepared for: 29 City of San Diego 30 Public Utilities Department 31 Goldy Herbon, Senior Water Resources Specialist 32 33 Bureau of Reclamation 34 Lower Colorado Region 35 Southern California Area Office 36 Leslie Cleveland, Water Resources Manager 37 38 39 Peer Reviewed by: 40 Bureau of Reclamation 41 Lower Colorado Region 42 Boulder Canyon Operations Office 43 Rich Eastland, Civil Engineer (Hydrologic) 44 45 46 This page intentionally left blank. San Diego Basin Study Task 2.1 Water Supply and Demand Projections 47 Contents 48 Page 49 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................... v 50 GLOSSARY ...................................................................................................................... vii 51 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................... 1 52 STUDY OBJECTIVE ...................................................................................................................... 1 53 WATER DEMAND ......................................................................................................................... 1 54 WATER SUPPLY ........................................................................................................................... 1 55 SUPPLY-DEMAND GAP ANALYSIS ............................................................................................... 2 56 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 57 1.1. STUDY OVERVIEW AND PURPOSE ....................................................................................... 1 58 1.2. OVERVIEW OF TASK 2.1 ...................................................................................................... 1 59 1.3. STUDY BACKGROUND .......................................................................................................... 2 60 1.4. STUDY AREA ........................................................................................................................ 3 61 2. WATER DEMAND ........................................................................................................ 10 62 2.1. CURRENT AND FUTURE WATER DEMANDS ....................................................................... 10 63 2.2. WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS ........................................................................................ 10 64 2.2.1. 2010 SDCWA UWMP Demand Projections for 2015-2035 .............................. 10 65 2.2.2. Demand Projections for 2015-2050 ...................................................................... 11 66 3. WATER SUPPLY .......................................................................................................... 15 67 3.1. CURRENT AND FUTURE WATER SUPPLY SOURCES ......................................................... 16 68 3.1.1. Local Supplies ......................................................................................................... 16 69 3.1.2. Imported Supplies ................................................................................................... 20 70 3.1.3. Dry-Year Supplies ................................................................................................... 21 71 3.1.4. Emergency Supplies ............................................................................................... 21 72 3.2. WATER SUPPLY PROJECTIONS ......................................................................................... 22 73 4. SUPPLY-DEMAND GAP ANALYSIS ........................................................................... 25 74 4.1. NORMAL YEARS ................................................................................................................. 25 75 4.2. DRY YEARS ........................................................................................................................ 25 76 4.2.1. Supply and Demand Data ...................................................................................... 25 77 4.2.2. Supply-Demand Gaps ............................................................................................ 26 78 4.3. SUGGESTIONS FOR ANALYSIS IN THE SAN DIEGO BASIN STUDY ..................................... 27 79 5. CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................. 29 80 6. REFERENCES .............................................................................................................. 30 81 APPENDIX A: DEMAND PROJECTIONS ......................................................................... 1 82 83 i San Diego Basin Study Task 2.1 Water Supply and Demand Projections 84 Figures 85 Page 86 Figure 1. Study Area overview. 7 87 Figure 2. Management Agency Boundaries 8 88 Figure 3. Water Resources Infrastructure 9 89 Figure 4.Example of regression between member agency population and total demand 90 for the City of Del Mar. 12 91 Figure 5. Monthly flow volume for three San Diego Basin streamgages with no upstream 92 regulation. 17 93 Figure 6. Regressions of Total Demand from 2010 SDCWA UWMP against SANDAG 94 Series 12 population projections. 4 95 Figure 7. Plots of projected demands from the 2010 SDCWA UWMP (blue) and 96 projections calculated from Series 13 population projections using regression 97 equations (red). 5 98 99 Tables 100 Page 101 Table 1. Study Watersheds 4 102 Table 2. Projected Water Demands by SDCWA Member Agency 2015-2050 calculated 103 from SANDAG Series 13 population data and regression equations developed using 104 2010 UWMP demands. 14 105 Table 3. SDCWA Historical Water Supply. 15 106 Table 4. Reservoirs capturing surface water runoff 17 107 Table 5. Normal Year Supply Projections 24 108 109 ii San Diego Basin Study Task 2.1 Water Supply and Demand Projections 110 Acronyms and Abbreviations AF acre-foot (1 AF = 43,560 cubic feet). AF/y acre-feet per year Cal Am California American Water cfs cubic feet per second CVWD Coachella Valley Water District DWR California Department of Water Resources ESP Emergency Storage Project IRWM Integrated Regional Water Management MGD Million Gallons per Day MWD Metropolitan Water District of Southern California QSA Quantification Settlement Agreement Reclamation United States Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation RWMG Regional Water Management Group SANDAG San Diego Association of Governments SBX7-7 Senate Bill X7-7, the Water Conservation Act of 2009 SDCWA San Diego County Water Authority SDPUD City of San Diego Public Utilities Department STAC Stakeholder Technical Advisory Committee UWMP Urban Water Management Plan 111 112 iii San Diego Basin Study Task 2.1 Water Supply and Demand Projections 113 Glossary 114 IRWM Program: A California DWR program for supporting water resources 115 planning under the Regional Water Management Planning Act (SB 1672). 116 Integrated Regional Water Management (IRWM) is a collaborative effort to 117 manage all aspects of water resources in a region. The fundamental principle of 118 IRWM is that regional water managers, who are organized into regional water 119 management groups (RWMGs), are best suited and best positioned to manage 120 water resources to meet regional needs. 121 San Diego Basin Study Area: The area bounded on the north, west, and south by 122 the San Diego County boundary and on the east by the boundaries of 11 Study 123 Watersheds. The Study Area is the same as the San Diego IRWM Region 124 Study Watersheds: The entirety of the San Luis Rey, Carlsbad, San Dieguito, 125 Peñasquitos, San Diego River, Pueblo, Sweetwater, and Otay watersheds and the 126 portions of the San Juan, Santa Margarita, and Tijuana watersheds within San 127 Diego County. 128 Urban Water Management Plans: Plans prepared by California's urban water 129 suppliers every five years to meet the requirements identified in the California 130 Water Code, Sections §10608– 10656 and submitted to the Department of Water 131 Resources (DWR). Every urban water supplier that either provides over
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