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Black Swans, Or the Limits of Statistical Modelling
Black swans, or the limits of statistical modelling Eric Marsden <[email protected]> Do I follow indicators that could tell me when my models may be wrong? On the 1001st day, a little before Thanksgiving, the turkey has a surprise. A turkey is fed for 1000 days. Each passing day confirms to its statistics department that the human race cares about its welfare “with increased statistical significance”. 2 / 58 A turkey is fed for 1000 days. Each passing day confirms to its statistics department that the human race cares about its welfare “with increased statistical significance”. On the 1001st day, a little before Thanksgiving, the turkey has a surprise. 2 / 58 Things that have never happened before, happen all the time. — Scott D. Sagan, The Limits of Safety: Organizations, ‘‘ Accidents, And Nuclear Weapons, 1993 In risk analysis, these are called “unexampled events” or “outliers” or “black swans”. 3 / 58 The term “black swan” was used in16th century discussions of impossibility (all swans known to Europeans were white). Explorers arriving in Australia discovered a species of swan that is black. The term is now used to refer to events that occur though they had been thought to be impossible. 4 / 58 Black swans ▷ Characteristics of a black swan event: • an outlier • lies outside the realm of regular expectations • nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility • carries an extreme impact ▷ Note that: • in spite of its outlier status, it is often easy to produce an explanation for the event after the fact • a black swan event may be a surprise for some, but not for others; it’s a subjective, knowledge-dependent notion • warnings about the event may have been ignored because of strong personal and organizational resistance to changing beliefs and procedures Source: The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, N. -
Whooper Swan)
Cygnus cygnus (Whooper Swan) European Red List of Birds Supplementary Material The European Union (EU27) Red List assessments were based principally on the official data reported by EU Member States to the European Commission under Article 12 of the Birds Directive in 2013-14. For the European Red List assessments, similar data were sourced from BirdLife Partners and other collaborating experts in other European countries and territories. For more information, see BirdLife International (2015). Contents Reported national population sizes and trends p. 2 Trend maps of reported national population data p. 5 Sources of reported national population data p. 8 Species factsheet bibliography p. 13 Recommended citation BirdLife International (2015) European Red List of Birds. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities. Further information http://www.birdlife.org/datazone/info/euroredlist http://www.birdlife.org/europe-and-central-asia/european-red-list-birds-0 http://www.iucnredlist.org/initiatives/europe http://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/conservation/species/redlist/ Data requests and feedback To request access to these data in electronic format, provide new information, correct any errors or provide feedback, please email [email protected]. THE IUCN RED LIST OF THREATENED SPECIES™ BirdLife International (2015) European Red List of Birds Cygnus cygnus (Whooper Swan) Table 1. Reported national breeding population size and trends in Europe1. Country (or Population estimate Short-term population trend4 Long-term -
Flamingo ABOUT the GROUP
Flamingo ABOUT THE GROUP Bulletin of the IUCN-SSC/Wetlands International The Flamingo Specialist Group (FSG) was established in 1978 at Tour du Valat in France, under the leadership of Dr. Alan Johnson, who coordinated the group until 2004 (see profile at www.wetlands.org/networks/Profiles/January.htm). Currently, the group is FLAMINGO SPECIALIST GROUP coordinated from the Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust at Slimbridge, UK, as part of the IUCN- SSC/Wetlands International Waterbird Network. The FSG is a global network of flamingo specialists (both scientists and non- scientists) concerned with the study, monitoring, management and conservation of the world’s six flamingo species populations. Its role is to actively promote flamingo research and conservation worldwide by encouraging information exchange and cooperation amongst these specialists, and with other relevant organisations, particularly IUCN - SSC, Ramsar, WWF International and BirdLife International. FSG members include experts in both in-situ (wild) and ex-situ (captive) flamingo conservation, as well as in fields ranging from field surveys to breeding biology, diseases, tracking movements and data management. There are currently 165 members around the world, from India to Chile, and from France to South Africa. Further information about the FSG, its membership, the membership list serve, or this bulletin can be obtained from Brooks Childress at the address below. Chair Assistant Chair Dr. Brooks Childress Mr. Nigel Jarrett Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust Slimbridge Slimbridge Glos. GL2 7BT, UK Glos. GL2 7BT, UK Tel: +44 (0)1453 860437 Tel: +44 (0)1453 891177 Fax: +44 (0)1453 860437 Fax: +44 (0)1453 890827 [email protected] [email protected] Eastern Hemisphere Chair Western Hemisphere Chair Dr. -
Unesp INSTITUTO DE BIOCIÊNCIAS – RIO CLARO
UNIVERSIDADE ESTADUAL PAULISTA “JÚLIO DE MESQUITA FILHO” unesp INSTITUTO DE BIOCIÊNCIAS – RIO CLARO PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM CIÊNCIAS BIOLÓGICAS (ZOOLOGIA) LEVANTAMENTO DA HERPETOFAUNA DO PARQUE NATURAL MUNICIPAL NASCENTES DE PARANAPIACABA, SANTO ANDRÉ, SP Vivian Carlos Trevine Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto de Biociências do Campus de Rio Claro, Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho, como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do título de Mestre em Ciências Biológicas (Zoologia). Setembro - 2011 Vivian Carlos Trevine Levantamento da Herpetofauna do Parque Natural Municipal Nascentes de Paranapiacaba, Santo André, SP Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto de Biociências do Campus de Rio Claro, Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho, como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do título de Mestre em Ciências Biológicas (Zoologia). Orientador: Prof. Dr. Hussam El Dine Zaher Rio Claro 2011 Vivian Carlos Trevine Levantamento da Herpetofauna do Parque Natural Municipal Nascentes de Paranapiacaba, Santo André, SP Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto de Biociências do Campus de Rio Claro,Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho, como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do título de Mestre em Ciências Biológicas (Zoologia). Comissão Examinadora ____________________________________ _____________________________________ _____________________________________ Rio Claro, 30 de agosto de 2011. Se um dia eu enxerguei mais longe, foi por estar de pé sobre ombros de gigantes. Isaac Newton AGRADECIMENTOS A Hussam Zaher pela oportunidade de trabalhar no MZUSP, pela orientação, paciência e por todo o apoio no desenvolvimento do mestrado. A Célio F. B. Haddad por possibilitar o financiamento das viagens de campo (proc. Fapesp 2008/50928-1), imprescindível para a realização deste trabalho, e também pela hospitalidade em Rio Claro e acesso à coleção CFBH. -
Countryside Jobs Service Weekly® the Original Weekly Newsletter for Countryside Staff First Published July 1994
Countryside Jobs Service Weekly® The original weekly newsletter for countryside staff First published July 1994 Every Friday : 14 June 2019 News Jobs Volunteers Training CJS is endorsed by the Scottish Countryside Rangers Association and the Countryside Management Association. Featured Charity: Canal and River Trust www.countryside-jobs.com [email protected] 01947 896007 CJS®, The Moorlands, Goathland, Whitby YO22 5LZ Created by Anthea & Niall Carson, July ’94 Key: REF CJS reference no. (advert number – source – delete date) JOB Title BE4 Application closing date IV = Interview date LOC Location PAY £ range - usually per annum (but check starting point) FOR Employer Main text usually includes: Description of Job, Person Spec / Requirements and How to apply or obtain more information CJS Suggestions: Please check the main text to ensure that you have all of the required qualifications / experience before you apply. Contact ONLY the person, email, number or address given use links to a job description / more information, if an SAE is required double check you use the correct stamps. If you're sending a CV by email name the file with YOUR name not just CV.doc REF 1370-ONLINE-28/6 JOB Development Officer / Senior Development Officer - Ecologist BE4 30/6/19 LOC SOLIHULL PAY YES FOR SOLIHULL METROPOLITAN BOROUGH COUNCIL Fixed term contract to 31/3/22. Our Conservation of the Historic Environment, Landscape Architecture, Urban Design and Ecology Team provides professional and technical advice on heritage, landscape, design, and ecology issues. The team is also responsible for the designation and management of Solihull’s 23 Local Nature Reserves and the delivery of externally funded projects. -
Free Download! the Trumpeter Swan
G3647 The Trumpeter Swan by Sumner Matteson, Scott Craven and Donna Compton Snow-white Trumpeter Swans present a truly spectac- Swans of the Midwest ular sight. With a wingspan of more than 7 feet and a rumpeter Swans, along with ducks and geese, belong height of about 4 feet, the Trumpeter Swan (Cygnus buc- to the avian Order Anseriformes, Family Anatidae. cinator) ranks as the largest native waterfowl species in T Trumpeters have broad, flat bills with fine tooth-like North America. serrations along the edges which allow them to strain Because the Trumpeter Swan disappeared as a breed- aquatic plants and water. The birds’ long necks and ing bird in the Midwest, several states have launched strong feet allow them to uproot plants in water up to 4 restoration programs to reintroduce it to the region. This feet deep. publication will provide you with background informa- Most Trumpeter Swans weigh 21–30 pounds, tion on the Trumpeter Swan’s status and life history, and although some males exceed the average weight. The on restoration efforts being conducted in the upper male is called a cob; the female is called a pen; and a swan Midwest. in its first year is called a cygnet or juve- nile. The Trumpeter is often con- fused with the far more common Tundra Swan (formerly Whistling Swan, Cygnus columbianus), the only other native swan found routinely in North America. Tundra Swans can be seen in the upper Trumpeter Swan Midwest only during spring and fall migration. You can distinguish between the two native species most accurately by listening to their calls. -
C35-Echevarria-Et-Al
Cotinga 35 Nesting biology of Coscoroba Swan Coscoroba coscoroba at La Angostura Dam, Tafí del Valle, Tucumán, Argentina Ada Lilian Echevarria, María Constanza Cocimano, José María Chani and Claudia Fabiana Marano Received 6 July 2011; final revision accepted 27 June 2012 Cotinga 35 (2013): 13–16 El Cisne Coscoroba Coscoroba coscoroba nidifica en latitudes mayores a 33ºS desde Buenos Aires (Argentina) y Chiloé (Chile) hasta Isla Grande en Tierra del Fuego y, ocasionalmente, en las islas Malvinas. Mostramos el primer registro de nidificación a 26º55’06”S 65º41’36”O y 2.000 msnm. Nuestro objetivo fue estudiar la nidificación de C. coscoroba para contribuir con información sobre la reproducción de esta especie. Llevamos a cabo nuestro estudio desde agosto de 2004 a noviembre de 2005 en el dique La Angostura, Argentina. Registramos 26 individuos e identificamos ocho nidos, cinco de los cuales mostraron actividad, con un total de cinco puestas. One of two species of swans in South America9, designated by a number. We visited each nest once Coscoroba Swan Coscoroba coscoroba inhabits per week and recorded data on materials and nest shallow brackish lagoons with abundant fringing and egg measurements. In addition, we recorded vegetation3. Documented nesting records outside nest activity (adults in the environs of nests and the main breeding area are scarce8. It nests at nest stage) during each visit. We spent 30 minutes latitudes above 33ºS from Buenos Aires (Argentina) observing each nest during each weekly visit p.a., and Chiloé (Chile) to Isla Grande in Tierra del with a total of 1,140 minutes of observation. -
ON 23(4) 555-567.Pdf
ORNITOLOGIA NEOTROPICAL 23: 555–567, 2012 © The Neotropical Ornithological Society REPRODUCTIVE BIOLOGY AND PAIR BEHAVIOR DURING INCUBATION OF THE BLACK-NECKED SWAN (CYGNUS MELANOCORYPHUS) Carmen Paz Silva1, Roberto Pablo Schlatter2 & Mauricio Soto-Gamboa1 1Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile. E-mail: [email protected] 2Instituto de Ciencias Marinas y Limnológicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile. Resumen. – Biología reproductiva y comportamiento del Cisne de Cuello Negro (Cygnus melano- coryphus). – El cisne de cuello negro (Cygnus melanocoryphus) es la única especie del género Cygnus que habita en Sudamérica. Si bien, el resto de las especies del género han sido extensamente estudia- das, para C. melanocoryphus aún no se ha descrito la mayor parte de su biología reproductiva. En este estudio evaluamos el comienzo y extensión de la temporada reproductiva, y el tamaño de nidada utili- zando datos recolectados en el Santuario Carlos Anwandter (SCA), Valdivia, Chile; correspondientes a 18 temporadas reproductivas. Por otro lado, estudiamos el comportamiento de las parejas durante el periodo de incubación, durante una temporada reproductiva. Se estimó el presupuesto de tiempo y dis- tancia con respecto al nido en seis parejas nidificantes. El periodo de nidificación se puede extender desde junio a enero y está influenciado por el tamaño de la población reproductiva y las condiciones cli- máticas. El tamaño de nidada se mantiene constante con una moda de tres huevos (promedio 3.13 ± 0.017; n = 5897). Ambos miembros de la pareja desarrollan actividades de vigilancia y mantención del nido, sin embargo, la incubación es una tarea exclusiva de la hembra, mientras que la defensa activa del nido es realizada por el macho. -
Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
FACT SHEET Arctic National Wildlife Refuge ARCTIC BIRDS IN YOUR STATE The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is a place unlike any Alabama - Ruby-crowned Kinglet Alaska - Redpoll other in the world. The Alaskan refuge, often referred to Arizona - Fox Sparrow as “America’s Serengeti,” is a remote sanctuary for diverse Arkansas - Mallard California - Snow Goose populations of migratory birds, fish, mammals, and marine Colorado - Bohemian Waxwing Connecticut - Greater Scaup life. The Refuge spans an area roughly the size of South Delaware - Black-bellied Plover Carolina and boasts snow-capped mountains, arctic tundra, Florida - Peregrine Falcon Georgia - Gray-checked Thrush foothills, wetlands, boreal forest, and fragile coastal plains. Hawaii - Wandering Tattler America’s Arctic Refuge was set aside as a safe haven for Idaho - Short-eared Owl Illinois - Northern Flicker wildlife in 1960, and it has remained wild in its more than Indiana - Dark-eyed Junco 50 years as a Refuge. Iowa - Sharp-shinned Hawk Kansas - Smith’s Longspur Kentucky – Merlin AMERICA’S LAST GREAT WILDERNESS Louisiana - Long-billed Dowitcher Maine - Least Sandpiper Maryland - Tundra Swan The Arctic Refuge is often mischaracterized as a blank, frozen void Massachusetts - Golden Plover of uninhabited tundra. Although winter frequently coats the Arc- Michigan - Long-tail Duck tic with snow and freezes the ground, it gives way to lush, vibrant Minnesota - Snowy Owl Mississippi – Northern Waterthrush growth in warmer months. In fact, the Refuge’s unparalleled diver- Missouri - American Pipit sity makes it the most biologically productive habitat in the North. Montana - Golden Eagle Nebraska - Wilson’s Warbler Landscape Nevada - Green-winged Teal The majestic Brooks Range rises 9,000 feet, providing sharp contrast New Hampshire - Dunlin New Jersey – Canvasback to the flat, wetlands-rich coastal plains at its feet. -
References.Qxd 12/14/2004 10:35 AM Page 771
Ducks_References.qxd 12/14/2004 10:35 AM Page 771 References Aarvak, T. and Øien, I.J. 1994. Dverggås Anser Adams, J.S. 1971. Black Swan at Lake Ellesmere. erythropus—en truet art i Norge. Vår Fuglefauna 17: 70–80. Wildl. Rev. 3: 23–25. Aarvak, T. and Øien, I.J. 2003. Moult and autumn Adams, P.A., Robertson, G.J. and Jones, I.L. 2000. migration of non-breeding Fennoscandian Lesser White- Time-activity budgets of Harlequin Ducks molting in fronted Geese Anser erythropus mapped by satellite the Gannet Islands, Labrador. Condor 102: 703–08. telemetry. Bird Conservation International 13: 213–226. Adrian, W.L., Spraker, T.R. and Davies, R.B. 1978. Aarvak, T., Øien, I.J. and Nagy, S. 1996. The Lesser Epornitics of aspergillosis in Mallards Anas platyrhynchos White-fronted Goose monitoring programme,Ann. Rept. in north central Colorado. J. Wildl. Dis. 14: 212–17. 1996, NOF Rappportserie, No. 7. Norwegian Ornitho- AEWA 2000. Report on the conservation status of logical Society, Klaebu. migratory waterbirds in the agreement area. Technical Series Aarvak, T., Øien, I.J., Syroechkovski Jr., E.E. and No. 1.Wetlands International,Wageningen, Netherlands. Kostadinova, I. 1997. The Lesser White-fronted Goose Afton, A.D. 1983. Male and female strategies for Monitoring Programme.Annual Report 1997. Klæbu, reproduction in Lesser Scaup. Unpubl. Ph.D. thesis. Norwegian Ornithological Society. NOF Raportserie, Univ. North Dakota, Grand Forks, US. Report no. 5-1997. Afton, A.D. 1984. Influence of age and time on Abbott, C.C. 1861. Notes on the birds of the Falkland reproductive performance of female Lesser Scaup. -
Whooper Swan
Whooper Swan The Whooper Swan (Cygnus cygnus), pronounced hooper swan, is a large Northern Hemisphere swan. It is the Eurasian counterpart of the North American Trumpeter Swan, and the type species for the genus Cygnus. Francis Willughby and John Ray's Ornithology of 1676 referred to this swan as "the Elk, Hooper, or wild Swan". The scientific name is from cygnus, the Latin for "swan". The Whooper Swan is similar in appearance to the Bewick's Swan. It is larger, however, at a length of 140–165 cm (55–65 in) and a wingspan of 205–275 cm (81–108 in). It is considered to be amongst the heaviest flying birds. It has a more angular head shape and a more variable bill pattern that always shows more yellow than black (Bewick's Swans have more black than yellow). Like their close relatives, Whooper Swans are vocal birds with a call similar to the Trumpeter Swan. Despite their size Whooper Swans are powerful fliers and can migrate hundreds or even thousands of miles to their wintering sites in southern Europe and eastern Asia. They breed in subarctic Eurasia, further south than Bewick’s in the taiga zone. They are rare breeders in northern Scotland, particularly in Orkney, and no more than five pairs have bred there in recent years; a handful of pairs have also bred in Ireland in recent years. This bird is an occasional vagrant to the Indian Subcontinent and western North America. Icelandic breeders overwinter in the United Kingdom and Ireland, especially in the wildfowl nature reserves of the RSPB and of the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust. -
2. Concentrations and Movements of Waterbirds with Potential to Spread Avian Influenza
2. Concentrations and movements of waterbirds with potential to spread Avian Influenza 2.1 Introduction 2.1.1 Waterbird numbers, distribution and key sites The International Waterbird Census (IWC), Coordinated by Wetlands International and its predecessor organization, IWRB, was established in Europe and West Asia in 1967 and in Africa in 1990. Every year in January, over 20 million waterbirds are counted in the Western Palearctic, and up to 10 million in Subsaharan Africa by a network of about 14,000 largely voluntary waterbird counters (Gilissen et al. 2002, Dodman & Diagana 2003). The use of standardized methods and recording forms and modern computer software ensures that a continental-scale time series of data on waterbird numbers, distribution and population trends is available as the scientific basis of waterbird conservation (e.g. Wetlands International 2002, 2005 Delany et al. 2005). Counts are conducted in January because this is when many waterbird species congregate conspicuously at a relatively small number of sites where they can be readily counted. The January count is supplemented in Subsaharan Africa by a second annual count in July, and there are plans for additional counts throughout Europe, Africa and Asia, in March-April and September-October, to collect information from sites important during migration. 2.1.2 Interpretation of IWC data More than 100 countries now participate in IWC around the world. The Census is coordinated at National Level by a wide variety of organisations and institutes and there are differences in approach which should be borne in mind when interpreting the resulting count data. The census is site-based, and defining sites in a standard way is problematic.