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Conflict and Peacebuilding Observatory Nº 31 – July 2015

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Conflict and Peacebuilding Observatory Nº 31 – July 2015 Conflict and Peacebuilding Observatory Nº 31 – July 2015 WORSENING EGYPT: An unprecedented ISIS attack in Sinai sets off an escalation of violence that kills over 100 people In July, the ISIS branch in Sinai (a group formerly known as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, which renamed itself Sinai Province in late 2014) launched a series of coordinated attacks on 15 checkpoints in the Sinai Peninsula in an offensive that was unprecedented due to the number of militiamen mobilised and the type of weaponry used. The offensive led to clashes with the Egyptian security forces that went on for several hours and also involved attacks by the Air Forces against ISIS positions in the area. According to official figures, around 100 combatants of the armed group and 17 soldiers died in the fighting. However, security sources quoted in the press claimed that the death toll was much higher. Given the situation, both Israel and Hamas announced that they would strengthen their monitoring of the border with Egypt. The escalation of violence, considered the worst in Sinai in four decades (since the Yom Kippur War), came days after the assassination of the public prosecutor of Egypt in late June and was followed by new acts of violence throughout July. These included air strikes against ISIS militants that killed at least 23 people at the start of the month and an alleged attack on an Egyptian coast guard ship for which ISIS claimed responsibility at the end of the month. Also during July, the security forces reportedly killed 13 prominent members of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) accused by the government of plotting attacks in the country. The organisation denied the accusations and ensured that the leaders were part of a group that coordinates aid for families of MB members currently in prison or dead because of the repression of recent years. The MB denounced the act as cold-blooded murder, called for the population to revolt and warned of “serious consequences”. In this context, the government presented new proposals for anti-terrorist laws that were denounced by various human rights NGOs and civil society groups, since they increase sentences for many offences linked to terrorist activities to life imprisonment and capital punishment. Experts warned that the government is promoting an ambiguous concept of “terrorism” that can be used with political criteria. One of the most controversial provisions is aimed at punishing the publication of what the authorities consider false news or information about anti-terrorist operations that contradict official reports. In late July, Human Rights Watch also warned of the disappearance of hundreds of people detained by the Egyptian security forces. (Le Monde, 02, 03/07/15; Reuters, 02, 16/07/15; BBC, 02, 22/07/15; al-Jazeera, 02, 18/07/15; El País 02/07/15; The Guardian 05/07/15) INDIA (NAGALAND): Clashes with the NSCN-K continue New clashes took place between the armed opposition group NSCN-K and Indian security forces. In the most serious episode, seven suspected insurgents were killed by Indian forces in a firefight in an area bordering Myanmar. Two civilians also lost their lives. Days later, two other members of the armed group died and a third was wounded in a security force operation. The clashes took place after patrols intensified their pursuit of the armed group following the kidnapping of two minors, allegedly by insurgents. Meanwhile, a rising chorus of politicians urged the armed group to reconsider its decision to abandon the ceasefire agreement. Nagaland Chief Minister TR Zeliang complained that the Indian government had not informed him previously that the armed group intended to break the ceasefire agreement, saying that if he had known, he would have tried to persuade the insurgents not to do so. Zeliang said that the Nagaland Legislators’ Forum on Naga Political Issues, which brings together the Naga MPs for the purpose of strengthening the peace process, will send a civil society delegation to a meeting with Khaplang, the leader of the armed group, in an attempt to patch up the ceasefire agreement. (Indian Express, 12 and 16/07/15; NDTV, 17/07/15) 1 Conflict and Peacebuilding Observatory Nº 31 – July 2015 NIGERIA (BOKO HARAM): Boko Haram’s escalation of violence continues, pending the deployment of the regional force (MNJTF) In July, Boko Haram’s attacks shook northern Nigeria and the neighbouring countries. Dominated once again by suicide attacks committed by women and children, they have been framed by different analysts as part of the campaign waged by Islamic State (ISIS) to increase violence during the month of Ramadan. The various attacks reported during the month included a wave of them during the first week. Body counts estimated around 429 people killed in the chain of attacks unleashed by the militia in northern Nigeria, including one on the community of Mussaram, near the city of Kukawa, in which approximately 48 people were killed, followed the next day (1 July) by different attacks on mosques in Kukawa that claimed around 97 lives and attacks on 2 and 4 July in Borno State against different communities in Askira Uba, Biu and Konduga, in which 53 people died. Likewise, in the city of Jos in central Nigeria, two bombs in a restaurant and a mosque left 44 people dead and 48 wounded on 5 July and around 50 people were killed and 32 wounded in two bomb attacks in the city of Zaria in Kaduna State on 7 July, the day after a 13-year-old girl conducted a suicide attack in a mosque in Kano. In the middle of the month, different attacks on four villages near Monguno in Borno State killed 43 people, two bombs in Gombe claimed 30 lives and two other suicide attacks perpetrated by women against mosques in Damaturu killed at least 50 people. Some media outlets indicated that between the inauguration of Muhammadu Buhari last 29 May and mid-July, 625 people lost their lives and hundreds were wounded in attacks conducted by Boko Haram in Nigeria. In addition to the attacks in Nigeria, incidents also took place in Chad, killing at least 41 people in three attacks, and in Cameroon, which reported 44 fatalities in four attacks. Faced with the rising violence, the Nigerian president has requested the deployment of the regional force to combat the insurgency as soon as possible. According to the agreement reached in Abuja, Nigeria on 11 June, the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) should be fully operational and deployed by 30 July. Amidst the escalating attacks, Buhari has opened the door to potential dialogue and negotiation with the insurgency, an offer that he raised again at the end of the month in an attempt to end the captivity of the girls of Chibok. In this context, the Nigerian president visited his US counterpart. On 20 July, Obama received Buhari in the White House, where they discussed subjects such as the strategy to combat terrorism and insecurity in northern Nigeria. In his diplomatic visit, Buhari also met with US Vice President Joe Biden, Secretary of State John Kerry and Attorney General Loretta Lynch to focus on security issues and the national democratic process. (Daily Independent 01, 06, 07, 08/07/15; Al Jazeera 02, 06, 08/07/15; Le Monde 03/07/15; Daily Trust 04, 17, 19/07/15; Cameroon Tribune 06/07/15; This Day 06, 07, 16, 24/07/15; Premium Times 07, 08/07/15; Deutsche Welle 07, 11, 16/07/15; Leadership 08/07/15; Vanguard 11, 21/07/15; UN News 12/07/15; AP 20/07/15) SYRIA: Many are killed in intense fighting in Aleppo and in the area of Zabadani, bordering Lebanon, while the refugee crisis caused by the conflict worsens The war in Syria continued to rage along different fronts across the country, with a severe impact on the population and infrastructure. Significant fighting was reported in early July in Aleppo, where a coalition of over a dozen rebel groups, including al-Qaeda’s branch in Syria, al-Nusra Front, launched a coordinated attack in areas controlled by government forces. Media reports described the offensive as the most important since the battle for Aleppo began and said that some Western-supported groups also participated in it. During the month there were also reports of intense fighting between Kurdish YPG militias and ISIS combatants in the area of Ain Issa, a key supply route to the major Islamic State stronghold of Raqqa. Operations were also reportedly conducted by the forces of Bashar Assad in an attempt to recover Palmyra, controlled by ISIS since late May. There were also serious incidents around Zabadani, in the area bordering Lebanon. In Zabadani, government troops and militiamen belonging to the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah undertook a joint action to try to dislodge rebel forces from the Qalamoun Mountains. In late 2 Conflict and Peacebuilding Observatory Nº 31 – July 2015 July, the UN envoy for Syria warned that the regime’s attacks in the area were causing unprecedented levels of death and destruction, partially due to the use of barrel bombs. Days later, Bashar Assad admitted that Syrian troops have been forced to concentrate on fighting in some areas of the country and approved amnesty for deserters in an attempt to strengthen his forces. Meanwhile, the United States reported that the anti-ISIS coalition was intensifying its operations in Syria. US President Barack Obama has ruled out sending troops and stressed the need for an effective partner on the ground. However, according to data released by the US Secretary of Defence, only 60 combatants have been approved for training.
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