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THESIS Dynamic Multilevel Modeling in the Design of Decision Support

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THESIS Dynamic Multilevel Modeling in the Design of Decision Support UNIVERSITEPIERREETMARIECURIE´ L’ ECOLE DOCTORALE INFORMATIQUE TELECOMMUNICATIONS ET ELECTRONIQUE THESIS to obtain the degree of DOCTORATE FROM L’UNIVERSITEPIERREET´ MARIE CURIE Presented by NGUYEN Thi Ngoc Anh Defended on 14 November 2014 Dynamic Multilevel Modeling in the design of Decision Support Systems for rescue simulation : combining Agent-based and Mathematical approaches Jury M. Jean Daniel ZUCKER Directeur de Recherche IRD, HDR Supervisor M. NGUYEN Huu Du Professor National University, Vietnam Co-supervisor M.LudovicLECLERCQ DirecteurdeRecherche,HDR Reviewer M.GuillaumeHUTZLER MaˆıtredeConf´erences,HDR Reviewer M. Alexis DROUGOUL Directeur de Recherche IRD, HDR Examinator M.YannCHEVALEYRE ProfesseurdesUniversit´es Examinator M.VincentCORRUBLE MaˆıtredeConf´erences,HDR Examinator M.NGUYEN Hong Phuong Professor of Vietnam Invited academy of sceience and technology Universit´ePierre et Marie Curie, Paris 6 752700, Paris Cedex 06 T´el. Secr´etariat : 01 44 27 28 10 Bureau d accueil, inscription des doctorants T´el. pour les ´etudiants de A `aEL : 01 44 27 28 07 EscG,2`eme´etage T´el.pourles´etudiantsdeEM`aMON:0144272805 15 rue de l ´ecole de m´edecine T´el. pour les ´etudiants de MOO `aZ : 01 44 27 28 02 E-mail : [email protected] Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisors Jean Daniel ZUCKER and Nguyen Huu Du for their advises and great kindness. I would also like to thank my husband Tran Thanh Son, my parents Nguyen Dang Loc and Tran Thi Kim Yen, my children Tran Ngoc Van and Tran Hoang Thang whose support and love can’t be quanti- fied; Professors Alexis Drougoul, Nguyen Hong Phuong, Yann Chevaleyre, Phan Thi Ha Duong who assisted with di↵erent forms of academic know-how and helped with knowledge acquisition; my colleagues at the laboratory UMI-209, UMMISCO, IRD and MSI/IFI : Kathy Boumont, Nguyen Ngoc Doanh, Patrick Taillandier, Vo Duc An, Chu Thanh Quang, Nguyen Manh Hung, Nguyen Vu Quang Anh, Edoard Amouroux, Arnaud Grignard, Tran Nguyen Minh Thu, Nguyen Trong Khanh, Udoh Progress Olufemi who stimulated and o↵ered me their priceless friendship and sup- port in all necessary forms. Once more time, I would like to express my great thank to my supervisors, family, teachers, colleagues and friends. iii Contents Abstract ix Introduction 2 1 Introduction 3 1.1 Foreword . 3 1.2 Motivation . 3 1.3 The research problems . 7 1.4 Structure of the manuscript . 10 2 Decision support for rescue: The State of the art 13 2.1 Foreword . 14 2.2 Introduction to complex system . 14 2.3 Crowd movement models . 17 2.3.1 Cellular automata models . 17 2.3.2 Lattice gas models . 17 2.3.3 Social force models . 20 2.3.4 Fluid-dynamicmodel . 23 2.3.5 Agent-Basedmodels . 25 2.3.6 Game Theoretic models . 28 2.3.7 Approaches based on experiments with Animals. 31 2.4 Hybrid-basedmodel............................ 31 2.4.1 Abstractions............................ 31 2.4.2 Hybrid-basedmodel . 33 2.5 Spatial Decision Support Systems . 34 2.6 Multi-LevelAgent-Basedmodel . 36 2.7 Chapter conclusion . 37 3 A Hierarchy of Models for Crowd Evacuation on Road Networks 39 3.1 Foreword . 40 v CONTENTS 3.2 Mathematic models . 40 3.2.1 Equation-Based Models for a road . 41 3.2.2 Equation-Based Models for road network . 45 3.2.3 Optimizing sign system in evacuation . 48 3.3 Agent-BasedModel............................ 52 3.3.1 Overview . 53 3.3.2 Design concepts . 54 3.3.3 Detail . 59 3.3.4 Agent-basedsimulationtool . 59 3.4 Hybrid-BasedModels. 61 3.4.1 EnvironmentoftheHybridModels . 61 3.4.2 Aggregation and Disaggregation in Hybrid simulation . 61 3.4.3 The aggregation trigger switching ABM to EBM . 63 3.4.4 The disaggregation trigger switching EBM to ABM . 64 3.5 Conclusion . 68 4 Solving and Simulating Evacuation Models 69 4.1 Mathematical solutions: Formulation of Sign Placement Optimiza- tion Problem . 72 4.1.1 A Mixed Integer Linear Programming Formulation of the Min- imization of Average Evacuation Time problem . 72 4.1.2 Optimizing the direction of the signs . 74 4.1.3 The Mixed Integer Linear Program . 75 4.2 Agent-BasedSimulation . 77 4.2.1 A geographic information system and environmental modeling 77 4.2.2 Distribution and Positioning . 79 4.2.3 Heterogeneous behaviors of pedestrians . 81 4.2.4 Agent-based simulation using GAMA platform . 84 4.3 HybridSimulation ............................ 88 4.3.1 The Consistency of Agent-based model and Hybrid-based model 88 4.3.2 Speed up simulation with certain conditions . 91 4.3.3 IntegratingABMandMAET . 92 4.4 Visualization ............................... 92 4.5 Conclusion . 95 5 Experimentation and Analysis 99 5.1 Experimentations . 100 5.2 The experiments for Equation-based simulation MAET . 103 5.3 Positions and behaviors of pedestrians . 111 vi CONTENTS 5.3.1 Integrated Equation-based simulation for MAET and Agent- based simulation using the GAMA platform . 116 5.4 Agent-based simulation and Hybrid-based simulation using the GAMA platform . 118 5.4.1 Hybrid-basedsimulationforoneroad . 118 5.4.2 Hybrid-based simulation for the road network of Nha Trang city120 5.5 Conclusion . 133 Conclusion 135 6 Conclusion 135 6.1 Conclusion . 135 6.2 Discussion . 138 6.3 Perspective . 140 Appendix 143 A Introducing the GAMA platform 143 A.1 GAMAplatform ............................. 143 A.2 GAMA source code for evacuation on road network . 144 A.2.1 code for Hybrid evacuation on road networks . 144 A.2.2 codeforintegratingMAETandGAMA . 154 A.2.3 The program is represented by the Floyd’s algorithm . 161 B Mathematic models 163 B.1 MILP model . 163 B.1.1 Introduction . 163 B.1.2 Modeling Principles . 164 B.2 ProgramofMAETusingCPLEXinPython . 164 Bibliography 170 List of Figures 183 List of Tables 192 vii Abstract One of the world’s worst natural disasters are Tsunamis, in particularly when they hit a crowded coastal city. Coastal cities need to be prepared for such disasters in order to mitigate losses. Preparedness for such an event would mean building Early warning information systems, Emergency shelter systems, Evacuation scenar- ios, Rescue systems, etc. However, Tsunami evacuation drills or Tsunami experi- ments are very difficult to carry out. This explains why modeling and simulating are extensively used to address such issues, in other to best prepare cities/countries against Tsunami outbreaks. One major problem would be to find the best evacuation procedure in evacuating a coastal city so as to minimize the number of casualties. In this thesis, we address the problems which involved scaling up simulations for evacuating Pedestrians on a road network of a city. Alotofevacuationmodelshavebeenresearchedwithdi↵erentscalefromMi- cro models to Macro models. There are seven common models to study the crowd evacuation, such as Cellular automata, Lattice gas, Social force, Agent-Based, Game theory and Experiments with animals. To support simulations for Macro and Micro models, there are a lot of softwares such as NETSIM and NETVACI for Macro sim- ulations and MITSIM, TRANSIMS for Micro simulations. However, these softwares are often developed for small-scale environments such as couple of buildings, subway stations, ships, rooms in an area etc. They are not suitable for large-scale environ- ment such as networks, city, etc. Now, GAMA platform, Geographic Information Systems & Agent-based Modeling Architecture, can simulate both Micro and Macro simulations. GAMA platform aims at providing field experts, modelers, and com- puter scientists with a complete modeling and simulation development environment for building spatially explicit ABM simulations. We use it to study di↵erent Micro and Macro evacuation simulation for the road network of a city. Firstly, Equation-Based Models (EBMs) are abstracted real problems with equations. EBMs has the advantage of solving the big problems in acceptable time. Therefore, we choose EBMs for optimizing sign placement system. We proposed modeling human behavior as semi-Markov chains for Equation-Based Model. Based on this model, we proposed an original formulation of the sign placement prob- ix lem, which we called Minimization of Average Evacuation Time (MAET). Next, we showed that this problem could be represented as a Mixed Integer Linear Pro- gramming (MILP), using powerful open-source MILP solvers. In addition, we use Lighthill, Whitham and Richards model (LRW) of Pedestrian flow on a road net- work. Pedestrians are homogeneous with a space time continuum. More precisely, the conservation law formulation proposed by LWR represented the fluid dynamics by partial di↵erence equations. However, they are difficult to consider the problem in detail with di↵erent realistic factors. To consider the problem in detail, Agent- Based Models are the approach (ABMs). Agent-Based Models (ABMs) take into account the heterogeneity of Pedestri- ans’ behaviors and the unspecified road network conditions. In addition, modelers using ABMs consider the initial population distribution based on the factors such as time and the tourist season in the coastal cities. However, the computational cost was huge when applied for larger number of evacuees and large dynamic environ- ment. The result of simulation using ABM requires huge experiments, so the speed of simulation is a problem that we want to investigate. We consider an Hybrid-Based Model (HBM) combining the advantages of both ABM and EBM. Thirdly, the problem of speeding up very large environment in ABMs such as the ones used in Crowd simulation is key to support realistic Decision Support Systems. The key idea is to exploit the advantages from both Macro and Micro modeling. A case study to prepare Nha Trang(city) Tsunami-Ready based on Hy- brid modeling shows a more efficient execution than Micro modeling, as well as an improved simulation quality when compared with Macro modeling. In the evacua- tion simulation, dynamic environment includes various parts having di↵erent levels of importance.
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