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Lincolnshire Coastal Study Summary Report Lincolnshire Coastal Study Summary Report Lincolnshire Coastal Study Summary Report 14 May 2010 Notice This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely for Lincolnshire Coastal Study Steering Group’s information and use in relation to the Lincolnshire Coastal Study. Atkins Limited assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents. © Crown Copyright 2009. The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) have been made available by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and the Department of Climate Change (DECC) under licence from the Met Office, UK Climate Impacts Programme, British Atmospheric Data Centre, Newcastle University, University of East Anglia, Environment Agency, Tyndall Centre and Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory. These organisations give no warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy of the UKCP09 and do not accept any liability for loss or damage, which may arise from reliance upon the UKCP09 and any use of the UKCP09 is undertaken entirely at the users risk. Document History JOB NUMBER: 5080858 DOCUMENT REF: 5080858/75/DG/088 1 Draft NW GD GD GD 31/03/10 2 Final, approved by SG NW GD GD GD 14/05/10 Revision Purpose Description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date 5080858/LCS-SummaryReport_Final Summary Report Glossary Term Explanation APE Annual Probability Event CIL Community Infrastructure Levy Defra Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs EiP Examination in Public emda East Midlands Development Agency EMRA East Midlands Regional Assembly GOEM Government Office East Midlands LDF Local Development Framework PPS3 Planning Policy Statement 3: Housing (CLG, 2006) RSS Regional Spatial Strategy SA Sustainability Appraisal SEA Strategic Environmental Assessment SFRA Strategic Flood Risk Assessment SMP Shoreline Management Plan UKCP09 United Kingdom Climate Projections 2009 5080858/LCS-SummaryReport_Final 3 Summary Report Introduction With large areas at or below sea level, the Lincolnshire coast is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The most vulnerable stretches of the coast are currently well protected from flooding (and have flood warning systems). However, future rises in sea level mean that it is necessary for decision makers to understand the current and possible future relationship between sea level rise and coastal flooding, economic regeneration, planning and housing provision, agricultural production, tourism, social deprivation, the natural environment, transport and health. Following the Examination in Public (EiP) of the last East Midlands Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) (which guides future development in the East Midlands), the Government asked for more research in preparation for the next RSS review by 2011. The Lincolnshire Coastal Study Group was consequently formed, consisting of Lincolnshire County Council, the coastal local authorities (East Lindsey District Council, Boston Borough Council, South Holland District Council), Government Office for the East Midlands (GOEM), East Midlands Development Agency (emda), Environment Agency, Natural England, East Midlands Regional Assembly and the Internal Drainage Boards. The Group commissioned the Lincolnshire Coastal Study to make a fresh assessment of the future needs of the coastal area and to assist in providing a longer-term perspective for planning. For the purposes of the Study the coastal area is defined as Boston Borough Council, South Holland District Council and East Lindsey District Council (excluding the Wolds). The Study addresses coastal flooding issues and puts forward a set of Principles and Options for spatial development which would allow communities in the Study Area to develop and have a viable and prosperous future. The Lincolnshire Coastal Study, along with other evidence (e.g. on housing needs) informs draft policy 5 (and others as appropriate) in the review of the East Midlands RSS. As the Regional Plan Policy 5 notes (GOEM, 2009): A strategy will be agreed between the Regional Planning Body, the three Lincolnshire coastal districts (East Lindsey, Boston and South Holland), Lincolnshire County Council, the Environment Agency and other relevant regional organisations. This will consider primarily: flood risk and flood defence works; housing needs; regeneration needs, including social and economic factors; other infrastructure needs; and the protection of the integrity of designated nature conservation sites of international importance. The strategy should consider how any infrastructure will be funded and the timing of such works. New housing and other new development will need to be carefully phased in accordance with the provision of necessary new infrastructure. The agreed strategy will form part of the next RSS review and if agreed before the adoption of the next review it will form a guide to the preparation of local development documents in the three districts until the regional strategy is rolled forward. 5080858/LCS-SummaryReport_Final 4 Summary Report Relationship of the Study to Shoreline Management Plans The Study is set within the context of emerging Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs), which explicitly develop policy on defence presence, position and standard of protection. The Study follows the current draft SMP policies in relation to the line and standard of protection of coastal flood defences. The Study is therefore concerned with residual flood risk i.e. how to manage spatial development behind defences which could be breached or over-topped. Residual risk is more precisely defined in Section 4.2. Adopting this relationship means that the Principles may require revision in future if the third or subsequent round of SMPs lead to the adoption of a different defence line or standard of protection. Project timeline Phase 1 of the Lincolnshire Coastal Study commenced in 2008 with a Scoping Study to identify the main issues facing the Lincolnshire coast as well as a literature review of over two hundred international, national, regional and local plans, policies and other documents. Phase 2 of the Study commenced in January 2009. The Study was broken down into five tasks as set out in Table 1. The findings of the five tasks are summarised in the sections that follow. Table 1 – Lincolnshire Coastal Study tasks Task Description Timeline Output Task 1 – Baseline Collation of an economic, January - April Task 1 environmental and social baseline 2009 report for the Study Area. Development of a Sustainability Appraisal framework. Task 2 – Scenarios Mapping of flood hazard scenarios April – July 2009 Task 2 and development of socio- report, economic scenarios for the Study including Area. maps Task 3 – Develop Development of draft Principles and Tasks 3 and 4 ran Task 3 Principles and Options through workshops with concurrently and 4 Options technical stakeholders, elected between July and report members, private sector December 2009 stakeholders and the project and the Principles Technical and Steering Groups. and Options were developed Task 4 – Test and Testing of the draft Principles and iteratively. refine Principles and Options against sustainability Options criteria. Refinement of Principles with project Steering Group and technical stakeholders. Task 5 – Delivery of Collation of information on potential January – March Task 5 Principles and delivery mechanisms for the 2010 report Options Principles and Options, including actors, investment requirements, funding sources, timing and possible barriers. 5080858/LCS-SummaryReport_Final 5 Summary Report Task 1: Baseline In Task 1 the social, economic and environmental baseline of the Study Area was established and key issues identified. This led to the development of a sustainability framework that was used later in the project to evaluate the Principles and Options. The baseline describes the particular vulnerabilities of the Study Area, reflecting flood hazard within the specific social, economic and environmental circumstances. Environmental, social and economic issues in the Study Area were identified based on the Phase 1 Scoping Study, a review of plans, policies and processes affecting the Study Area and a workshop attended by Technical Stakeholders. Baseline The following environmental, social and economic issues were identified in the Study Area: Environmental issues Internationally, nationally and regionally significant biodiversity: the majority of the coastline in the Study Area (excluding the stretch of coast between Skegness and Mablethorpe) is internationally designated. Threatened coastal landscapes: the Countryside Quality Counts assessment of countryside change between 1999 and 2003 identified agriculture, development, sea level rise and coastal erosion as the main pressures on landscape in the Study Area (Haines-Young 2007). Importance of historic environment assets: there are a high number of Scheduled Ancient Monuments and registered parks and gardens as well as listed buildings and Conservation Areas in the Study Area. In addition to individual features, the undesignated historic environment also includes archaeology and semi- natural historic landscapes. Heritage features are valuable and unique and they cannot be re-created if destroyed. Therefore, they are particularly vulnerable to coastal flooding. High risk of flooding and coastal erosion: the low-lying nature of the Lincolnshire coast makes it vulnerable to flooding from the sea. Coastal erosion is also affecting the Lincolnshire coast,
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