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Energy Policy and Conservation Act (3)” of the Loen and Leppert Files at the Gerald R The original documents are located in Box 8, folder “Energy Policy and Conservation Act (3)” of the Loen and Leppert Files at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Copyright Notice The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Gerald Ford donated to the United States of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections. Works prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public domain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to remain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid copyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Digitized from Box 8 of the Loen and Leppert Files at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library July a. 1975 EMOBANDUM FOil: JA:MES CANNON THRth MAX L. J'.at.EDE.RSDO E V£1\N LOEN J'RO.lwb SUBJECT: PI'••• Jleleaae of Rep. J oha DiDieU (D-Mlch) oa De~ of OW OU Attaellad for your iaformatloD le a copy of dle preaa rel.. ae ot 1\ep• .John Dbaa.U atM. .... c.tneac• oa edae•day, Julf 2.. lt7S. at lbOO a.m. CCl .Jack Mal"•h . v .... Loea BW Keacla.ll Paul O'NeUl PatO'Dalaa.U Mike DllYal Tern Lo•ftl•~ \ ...- •...,.-.,....,.,;,,_._,lf_•.._ ........ ...._ ___w_.., __,..,.,~·..,,..._,.. ·er·· llklllinilliL-·-.....,-·.·-~ ._... ....,.._._,. __ NEWS PACKET ON DOMESTIC OIL PRICE DECONTROL NOT FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE EMBARGOED FOR 11 A.M., EST. WASHINGTON, D.C. CONGRESSMAN JOHN D. DINGELL, NEWS CONFERENCE JULY 2, 1975 ROOM 2123 RAYBURN "STUDY ON POTENTIAL EFFECTS SUDDEN DECONTROL OF DOMESTIC OLD OIL PRICES WOULD HAVE ON THE ECONOMY OF THE UNITED STATES". OFFICE OF CONGRESSMAN JOHN D. DINGELL DEMOCRAT-MICHIGAN > _CHAIRMAN, : SUBCOM ..~I~T~E!., .ON ENERGY AND POWER , COMMITTEE ON INTERSTATE AND FOREIGN COHMERCE U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES STATEMENT OF HON. JOHN D. DINGELL CHAIRMAN, SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND POWER JULY 2, 1975 MANY OF YOU HERE TODAY HAVE BEEN COVERING THE ACTIVITIES OF THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND POWER, AND THE FULL COMMITTEE ON INTERSTATE AND FOREIGN COMMERCE, AS WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH ASPECTS OF THE COMPREHENSIVE ENERGY ISSUES WHICH CONFRONT THE COUNTRY TODAY. THERE IS PRESENTLY PENDING BEFORE A HOUSE-SENATE CONFERENCE LEGISLATION (H.R. 4035) WHICH.WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF EXTENDING, FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERAL MONTHS, THE AUTHORITIES CONTAINED IN THE EMERGENCY PETROLEUM ALLOCATION ACT. IF THAT ACT IS NOT EXTENDED, OR SUBSTITUTE LEGIS­ LATION ENACTED BY AUGUST 31 OF THIS YEAR -- 60 DAYS FROM TODAY -- THIS COUNTRY WILL LOSE WHATEVER AUTHORITIES IT HAS TO REGULATE AND HOLD DOWN THE PRICE OF DOMESTIC "OLD OIL." THE PURPOSE OF THIS MEETING IS TO ACQUAINT YOU WITH A STUDY WHICH HAS BEEN DONE FOR THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON THE EFFECTS OF THIS LOSS OF CONTROL. THE REASON FOR HOLDING THIS MEETING AT THIS TIME IS THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED STRONG HINTS OF A POSSIBLE PRESIDENTIAL VETO ON THE LEGISLATION -- WHICH IS, BY THIS TIME, THE ONLY CREDIBLE WAY OF ENSURING. THAT THESE CRITICAL LEGISLATIVE AUTHORITIES DO NOT LAPSE. -2- AS A RESULT OF THESE WHITE HOUSE THREATS OF VETOES OF THE EXTENSION OF THE EMERGENCY PETROLEUM ALLOCATION ACT, AND THE JUST REPORTED ENERGY CONSERVATION AND OIL POLICY ACT OF 1975 FROM OUR COMMITTEE, I INITIATED THE STUDY I AM RE­ LEASING TODAY, WHICH DRAMATICALLY SHOWS THE IMPACTS ON THE AMERICAN ECONOMY OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS IF -THESE TWO ENERGY MEASURES ARE KILLED BY THE PRESIDENT AND IF THE CONGRESS IS UNABLE TO OVERRIDE HIS VETOo THE AMERICAN CONSUMER WILL BE THE LOSER. '· ·. THE FIGURES THAT OUR ENERGY AND POWER SBCOMMITTEE HAS COMPILED ARE STARTLING. THEREFORE, I FELT IT NECESSARY TO CALL THIS CONFERENCE TO REPORT THESE FIGURES, REGARDING THE IMPACT OF DECONTROL OF DOMESTIC OLD OIL PRICES ON OUR CRIPPLED ECONOMY. THIS INFORMATION HAS TO BE MADE KNOWN TO THE AMERICAN PUBLIC AND TO THE ADMINISTRATION -- AN ADMINISTRATION WHICH IS SADLY MISLED IF IT BELIEVES THE NATION TODAY CAN STAND SUDDEN DECONTROL OF DOMESTIC OLD OIL PRICES. TAKE FIRST THE LEGISLATION NOW IN A HOUSE AND SENATE CONFERENCE TO EXTEND THE EMERGENCY PETROLEUM ALLOCATION ACT UNTIL DECEMBER 13, 1975. THIS ACT EXPIRES AUGUST 31. IF THE AUTHORITY OF THIS ACT WERE ALLOWED TO LAPSE AS THE RESULT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL VETO -- WHICH HAS BEEN THREATENED AND THE CONGRESS IS UNABLE TO OVERRIDE THAT -3- 'I ., VETO, THE ECONOMY AND THE PEOPLE OF THIS COUNTRY WILL PAY AN UNCONSCIONABLE PRICE IN THIS GAME OF ECONOMIC BRINKSMAN- SHIP. THE VETO OF THIS BILL WOULD RESULT IN IMMEDIATE DECONTROL OF TWO-THIRDS OF OUR DOMESTIC OIL PRODUCTION, SENDING CURRENTLY CONTROLLED $5.25 PER BARREL OIL UP TO THE CARTEL PRICE, WHICH COULD REACH A LEVEL OF $17.50 BY THE FALL. THE ADMINISTRATION SPOKESMEN FONDLY REFER TO THIS AS "PLAYING HARDBALL" WITH THE CONGRESS. THEY DON'T SEEM TO APPRECIATE, OR ARE CALLOUS TO THE FACT, THAT THEY ARE PLAYING HARDBALL WITH THE LIVES AND LIVELIHOOD OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. IMMEDIATE DECONTROL WOULD MOST LIKELY TURN THE EXPECTED ECONOMIC RECOVERY BACK INTO A SERIOUS RECESSION AND COST AT LEAST HALF A MILLION JOBS. THE IMPACT OF SUCH CLEARLY IRRESPONSIBLE ACTION WOULD BE ENORMOUS. ASSUMING IMMEDIATE DECONTROL, ANOTHER $1 TARIFF INCREASE AND $4 INCREASE IN OPEC PRICES THIS FALL WOULD RESULT IN A FLATTENING OF THE ECONOMY, IF NOT A SERIOUS DOWNTURN BY LATE 1976. SPECIFICALLY, THE ENERGY AND POWER SUBCOMMITTEE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE FOLLOWING IMPACT: 1. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT -- WILL EXPERIENCE CLOSE TO A THREE PERCENT REDUCTION BY THE ,., · ,. /'/_.·~ ..> 7 -4- FOURTH QUARTER OF 1976 FURTHER AGGRAVATING THE ALREADY UNACCEPTABLE GAP BETWEEN GNP AND THE POTENTIAL OF OUR ECONOMY. 2. UNEMPLOYMENT -- A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF AN ADDITIONAL HALF-MILLION BY THE END OF ' 1976 ON TOP OF.: THE 7.2 MILLION EXPECTED TO BE r. UNEMPLOYED AT THAT TIME. 3. INFLATION -.,.. A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE, MOST SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX, WHICH BY THE END OF 1976 WOULD BE 13 PERCENT HIGHER THAN THE BASE CASE AND OVER 18 PERCENT HIGHER BY THE THIRD QUARTER OF 1977. 4. HOUSING STARTS WHICH HAVE BEEN IN A RECORD SLUMP, WOULD BE 9 PERCENT LOWER OR 120,000 FEWER STARTS IN 1976. 5. AUTO SALES -- WHICH ARE ALREADY 30 PERCENT BELOW TWO YEARS AGO WILL BE 9 PERCENT DOWN OR / 750,000 FEWER SALES. IN 1976 THAN PROJECTED IN THE BASE CASE. BOTH THE AUTO A..~D HOUSING INDUSTRIES ARE CRITICAL SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY, AND ARE COUNTED ON TO PULL US OUT OF THE CURRENT RECESSION. IF BOTH SECTORS RECEIVE THE FURTHER . JOLT OF THE IMMEDIATE OR RAPID DECONTROL -- THERE MAY BE NO RECOVERY. -5- THE ADMINISTRATION IS FLIRTING WITH POSSIBLE ECONOMIC DISASTER AND HAS NOT GIVEN THE CONGRESS ANY ANALYSIS TO SUPPORT THE WHITE HOUSE POSITION THAT SUDDEN DECONTROL OF OIL PRICES IS GOOD FOR THE COUNTRY. THE SUBCOMMITTEE HAS REQUESTED ON NUMEROUS OCCASIONS, MOST RECENTLY IN THE LAST WEEK, SUCH AN ANALYSIS FROM THE FEDERAL ENERGY ADMINISTRATION AND WE HAVE RECEIVED NOTHING. WHILE THE WHITE HOUSE THREATENS A LAPSE IN THE EMERGENCY PETROLEUM ALLOCATION ACT, THEY HAVE NO SPECIFIC REPORTS FOR CONGRESS ON WHAT THE IMPACT OF SUCH SUDDEN ACTIONS MAY BE ON THE NATION'S ECONOMY. I CONSIDER THIS GROSS IRRESPONSIBILITY. I FOR ONE AM BECOMING TIRED OF THE ADMINISTRATION LINE OF "SHOOT FIRST AND ANALYZE LATER -- IF AT ALL." IT IS IRONIC THAT THE PRESIDENT VETOED THE STRIP MINING BILL BECAUSE •••• AS HE CLAIMED •••• IT COULD CAUSE THE LOSS OF 35-THOUSAND JOBS. YET, IF HE GOES THROUGH WITH HIS INDICATED PLA.'f\lS TO VETO H.R. 4035, , . HE IS FLIRTING WITH THE POSSIBLE LOSS OF OVER A HALF-A-MILLION JOBS. THE SUBCOMMITTEE STATISTICS WERE DEVELOPED BY USING TWO OF THE MOST POPULAR ECONOMIC FORECASTING MODELS , MAJOR RELIANCE WAS PLACED ON THE CHASE ECONOMETRIC MODEL AND ITS. 6 . ' ' FORECAST WAS VALIDATED AGAINST THE WHARTON/BCS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT BOTH OF THESE MODELS ARE OTHER- WISE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY OVER THE NEXT FEW QUARTERS, ASSUMING RELATIVELY STABLE ENERGY PRICES. I HOPE THAT WE CAN IMPRESS UPON THE CONGRESS AND THE ADMINISTRATION THAT CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES OF THE IMPACT OF IMMEDIATE DECONTROL ARE ENORMOUS: THEIR IMPACT UPON THE ECONOMY IS CLEARLY NEGATIVE. ONE CAN PERHAPS QUIBBLE ABOUT THE PRECISION OF THESE ADMITTEDLY IMPRECISE ESTIMATES, BUT THERE IS NO DOUBT WHATEVER OF THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THESE FIGURES POINT. ANY WAY YOU LOOK AT IT, SUDDEN DECONTROL SPELLS BAD NEWS - PERHAPS VERY BAD NEWS INDEED. IN CONCLUSION, IF THE ECONOMY BEGINS A GOOD RECOVERY AND PRECIPITOUS OR SUDDEN DECONTROL OF DOMESTIC OLD OIL OCCURS, DECONTROL WILL IMPAIR THE RESTORATION OF HEALTHY ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DELAY THE END OF THE RECESSION, VERY LIKELY CAUSING WORSE INFLATION. IF THE ECONOMY DOESN'T BEGIN A BETTER RECOVERY RATE AND DOMESTIC OLD OIL IS RAPIDLY OR SUDDENLY DECONTROLLED, THE RESULTING EFFECTS ON ECONOMY WOULD BE DEVASTATING. EITHER WAY, AMERICANS ARE IN TROUBLE IF DSCO~TROL OF OLD OIL OCCURS RAPIDLY. t -.-: . ., . SUMMAR'Y • With hope for a turnaro1.md in our domestic economy looked for in the next two quarters, there are two major potential changes in domestic energy prices that have yet to be fully factored into the projections. 1. The possibility qf immediate, rather than time-phased, decontrol of domestic "old oil" resulting from the expiration of the Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act on September 1, 197 5, without substitute or extension legislation in place. 2. An anticipated price rise in OPEC crude prices in October.
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