A Monthly Newsletter on Food Security and Vulnerability in

Number 02/2001 15 February, 2001

Summary

The NGO, Concern Worldwide, reports that households in District (eastern Uganda) are experiencing moderate food insecurity. The most affected people are located in Kapelebyong and Usuk Counties on the border with , where there is limited access to food and malnutrition rates are high. Only households in Magoro Sub-County of Usuk, received about 100 kg of maize and beans from another NGO, Hands on Service, in early December. No further assistance has been provided and there are no immediate plans to provide additional food aid to the affected people in the district.

Because of the expected increase in demand on meager food supplies and other resources, many residents are worried about the Karimojong pastoralists and their normal dry season migratory pattern into in search of water and pastures for their livestock. Large livestock herds may cause destruction of crops and vegetation, increasing vulnerability to food insecurity and competition for already diminishing pastures. District authorities and local residents also are concerned about the possibility of increasing tensions and civil insecurity due to the presence of armed pastoralists. To ensure peace and security in the district, the Government has increased deployment of Uganda People’s Defence Force personnel. Concern Worldwide affirms that even though the population may require assistance after February 2001 when household food stocks run low, it is imperative for adequate civil security to be maintained to allow proper identification and targeting of the most affected households before carrying out any mitigation program for maximum benefit.

In most districts of Uganda, the supply of crops continues to be good and has enabled households to replenish their stocks as well as ensure adequate household access to food. Except for Katakwi District, prevailing perennial crop and food conditions continue to be good and FEWS NET does not anticipate any major food shortages in the next six months. Crop supplies to the market are normal. Seasonally low prices improve access to food for households dependent on the market.

Following relatively improved food conditions in Karamoja and limited donor response to its Emergency Operation (EMOP) 6235 for drought-affected people in the region, the WFP is reviewing the implications for an early end to the program by March 2001. In a January nutritional and food security survey of Kotido and Moroto Districts, Karamoja Region, the Uganda-based Oxfam GB found that the region’s nutritional and food security status has improved since the last assessment carried out in in May 2000.

The survey found that 7.6 percent and 7.3 percent of children experienced Moderate acute malnutrition in Kotido and Moroto Districts, respectively. Another 0.4 and 0.5 percent suffered from severe acute malnutrition in the respective districts. This compares favorably with the overall malnutrition rate of 10.7 percent in the previous assessment in Kotido District. However, this recent assessment was done just after the harvest, which may explain the improved results. This is expected to change toward the normal “hunger period” of March to July as the availability of food and milk diminishes, leading to a deterioration of nutritional status. The survey found a

A USAID Project Managed by Chemonics International, Inc. ¨ P.O. Box 7856, , Uganda Telephone 256-41-231140 ¨ Fax: 256-41-231139 ¨ Email: [email protected] A Monthly FEWS NET Newsletter on Food Security and Number 02/2001 2 Vulnerability in Uganda 15 February 2001 higher number of malnourished children in the eastern arid pastoral belt along the Kenya border than in other parts. OXFAM therefore recommends that future surveys concentrate on 'food economy zones,' rather than administrative districts. The assessment also revealed that while overall livestock conditions were fair, pastoralists had begun their normal seasonal movement to neighboring districts in search of pasture and water. Oxfam recommends setting up a locally based early warning system in the various zones of Karamoja to regularly monitor food security conditions and therefore ensure adequate response and mitigation.

1. Review of Emerging and Continuing Humanitarian and Food Crises

1.1. Emerging Humanitarian and Food Crises

The NGO, Concern Worldwide, reports moderate household food insecurity in Katakwi District. The most affected people live in Kapelebyong and Usuk Counties, where there is limited access to food and people are showing signs of high malnutrition rates. In December 2000, households in Magoro Sub-County (Usuk County) received a one-time distribution of food aid. However, there are no known plans for further assistance to the affected people here or elsewhere in the district. Increasing numbers of Figure 1: Katakwi District armed Karimojong pastoralists moving their livestock in search of water and pastures is worrisome as KOTIDO

Kapelebyong

Amuria it will place pressure on a projected Usuk increase in demand for already meagre food supplies and lead to a possible deterioration of civil LIRA MOROTO security. The Government of Kapelebyong Uganda (GoU) has deployed Uganda People’s Defence Force personnel to ensure peace and KATAKWI security. Many people in the Usuk district may require food aid after February 2001 when the “hunger period” begins. However, to be effective, any mitigation responses KUMI must be contingent upon reliable Source: FEWS NET Uganda, February 2001 security in the area and target the most affected for maximum impact.

According to Concern Worldwide, many households in Katakwi District, eastern Uganda, continue to experience harmful food insecurity conditions. The most affected areas are in Kapelebyong and Usuk Counties (Figure 1), on the border with Moroto District, where many people remain displaced and have limited access to food. Concern Worldwide further reports that malnutrition rates in these two counties are high. However, the NGO reports that conditions in other parts of the district are better. Following the report by Concern Worldwide on conditions in the district in early December 2000, Hands on Service, an NGO working in Magoro Sub- County, provided some 100 kg of maize and beans to each household in the sub-county. No A Monthly FEWS NET Newsletter on Food Security and Number 02/2001 3 Vulnerability in Uganda 15 February 2001 further assistance has been provided and there are no immediate plans to provide food aid to the affected people.

There is increasing concern among residents about the growing presence of Karimojong pastoralists, who are moving into Katakwi District in search of water and pastures for their livestock in keeping with normal seasonal patterns. These pastoralists and their animals will increase the demand on meagre food supplies and other resources. Moreover, the presence of large livestock herds may destroy any remaining field crops and vegetation, increasing the risk to food insecurity and competition for already diminishing pastures. Furthermore, residents and district authorities are feeling a growing anxiety about the possibility of increased civil insecurity due to the likely movement of pastoralists into the district with assault rifles, as is their normal practice. For this reason, the Government of Uganda has increased its deployment of Uganda People’s Defence Force personnel to ensure peace and security in the district.

Concern Worldwide affirms that although the population may require food assistance after February 2001, it is imperative that adequate civil security be maintained. This will allow for proper identification and targeting of the most affected households for any hunger relief or hunger mitigation program that might be carried out.

1.2. Continuing Humanitarian and Food Security Crises

Generally, near-normal civil security conditions have been reported in District, western Uganda, and and Kitgum Districts, northern Uganda, since the beginning of the year. Authorities report only isolated rebel attacks. This relative calm augurs well for increased household access to food from their fields. People and their goods move about relatively freely, and the supply of crops to rural and urban markets is adequate where the Market News Service (MNS) reports that prices are normal.

Various NGOs and UN Figure 2: Distribution of Internally Displaced People in Uganda agencies, including UNICEF and the World Total Population Affected Food Program, are District (Estimated mid-2000) Population Percent actively working with the Bundibugyo 174,800 90,000 51.5 GoU to provide Gulu 469,700 370,781 78.9 Kitgum 499,100 82,645 16.6 humanitarian assistance Source: WFP Uganda and Regional Office, February 2001 to the IDPs. The WFP provides food aid to IDP in Bundibugyo, Gulu, and Kitgum through its Protracted Relief and Recovery Program (PRRO) 6176, in effect until March 2002, which is well supplied and for which there are no projected shortages.

2. Food Security Conditions and Prospects 2.1. Current Food Security Status

Food stocks remain adequate and household access to food is good, generally ensuring satisfactory food security.

The supply of crops from the second-season (August-December) continues to be good and has enabled households to replenish their stocks as well as ensuring adequate access to food for A Monthly FEWS NET Newsletter on Food Security and Number 02/2001 4 Vulnerability in Uganda 15 February 2001 households in most districts of Uganda. According to wide-ranging sources, including district agriculture officials, NGOs working with farmers, and commercial traders, crops are available in sufficient quantities. Only pockets of food insecurity are reported, mostly in civil insecure areas, but these can be taken care of through various traditional coping mechanisms at the local levels and through food aid. There is no significant threat to national food security.

2.2. Food Security Outlook for the Next Six Months

Households in Katakwi District face precarious food security conditions. Prevailing crop and food conditions continue to be good in other districts and FEWS NET does not anticipate any major food shortages in the next six months.

There is no change from the prognosis in the last report that household food stocks over the next six months are projected to be adequate to sustain households until the next main season harvest in June/July. Good perennial crop conditions also portend sufficient food for most districts in Uganda.

A good harvest in central and western Kotido and Moroto Districts, Karamoja Region of northeastern Uganda, coupled with relatively stable civil security there, favors the exchange and movement of crops within the districts and household access to food. This has helped improve food security conditions in the districts, including the eastern areas on the Kenya Border that had a much below-normal harvest due to poorly distributed rainfall last year. Relatively improved food security conditions in Karamoja and very limited donor response to WFP’s Emergency Operation (EMOP) 6235 for drought-affected people in Karamoja — only 2,100 MT (17 percent) out of 12,222 MT required has been pledged for the extension from October to April 2001 — have led WFP to review the impact of a possible early termination of the program by March 2001.

Despite sporadic rebel activities in Gulu and Kitgum Districts, northern Uganda, and of western Uganda, households are able to obtain access food, in addition to food aid, to meet their daily requirement with no reported significant food distress.

Crop supplies diminish during the period March-June as food from past seasons is depleted and farm households look toward the next harvest in June/July. In Katakwi District, the outlook is for tougher times ahead beginning in March as households contend with currently low household food stocks and limited access to food, further diminishing the already limited food supply. . Therefore, households will increasingly have to look to other sources outside the home to meet their daily food requirements until the next harvest, provided that they are able to cultivate in the coming season without fear of insecurity and displacement.

3. National Trends: Hazard Information

Unseasonable rainfall observed since December 2000 continued for most of January in many districts of Uganda benefiting mainly perennial crops and vegetation. Ample water and pastures are available in Uganda’s central, western “cattle corridor,” enabling peak livestock conditions. Normal dry conditions in Karamoja Region have reduced water pasture and water availability leading to increasing migration of livestock to dry season grazing areas in neighboring districts. Market supply of food grains is good and prices are low. However, pulses are decreasingly available.

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3.1. Rainfall and Vegetation Conditions

December to March is normally a dry period following the end of the second cropping season in most districts of Uganda, which have two seasons. The exceptions are , Kotido, and Moroto Districts, which have one long season stretching from April to October. Above-average rainfall experienced since December 2000 in eastern Lake Victoria Basin, and western and southwestern Uganda continued into January.

Rainfall received in western and central Uganda’s “cattle corridor” has regenerated vegetation and replenished ground water sources ensuring availability of sufficient pasture, browse, and water for livestock. Normal dry conditions in Moroto and Kotido Districts have reduced availability of water and pastures. Consequently, district officials report movement of large herds in eastern and northern Uganda as pastoralists migrate with their livestock to more favorable dry season grazing grounds in neighboring districts of Katakwi, Kitgum, Kumi, and Lira Districts water and pastures.

3.2. Crop Conditions

The peak maize harvest period for the second season is over. Meanwhile, sorghum is being harvested in eastern, northern, and western Uganda. The main agricultural activity currently ongoing is field preparation and dry sowing of millet in northern Uganda. Unseasonable rainfall and high moisture levels in many parts of the country continue to be a concern to farmers and cereal (maize, sorghum) dealers due to the high risk of deterioration of crop quality in fields and storage.

Rainfall during January favored normal production of perennial crops, such as banana, cassava, coffee, sweet potatoes, tea, and tobacco, for improved household food availability and income. The supply of bananas, sweet potatoes, and cassava, key food security crops that help bridge the period of limited staple harvests, remains good all over the country.

3.3. Trade and Market Trends

Overall, trends indicate steady supply of crops to markets, including cereals, root crops, and tubers as well as bananas. The supply of pulses, especially beans, has continued to fall since the harvest in November due to internal and export demand.

Anecdotal data from major markets points to a decline in the price of maize and sorghum with increasing supply of dry maize and sorghum. Collaborating with commercial farmers and taking into consideration of current conditions, FEWS NET in conjunction with the IDEA Project, a USAID-funded project promoting the production and export of non-traditional export crops, estimate current commercial maize supply to last through April 2001 at least. No significant reduction to market access is projected. On average, maize sells for an estimated UShs 16,000 per 100 kg bag (down from about Ushs 23,000 in December) while beans go for Ushs 44,000 (up from about Ushs 37,000 in December).

The supply of banana (matooke), sweet potato, and cassava remains good, helping households meet their food requirements.

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4. Special Feature: Results of OXFAM Great Britain (GB) Nutrition and Food Security Assessment in Karamoja

The nutritional and food security status in Karamoja has improved since the last assessment carried out in Kotido District in May 2000. The survey found that 7.6 percent and 7.3 percent of children experienced moderate acute malnutrition in Kotido and Moroto Districts, respectively. Another 0.4 and 0.5 percent suffered from severe acute malnutrition in the respective districts. This compares favorably with the overall malnutrition rate of 10.7 percent in the previous assessment in Kotido District. However, the recent assessment was done just after the harvest, which may explain the favorable results.

Between January 8-26, 2001, OXFAM GB in Uganda carried out a nutritional and food security survey of Kotido and Moroto Districts, Karamoja Region. The main objectives of the assessment were to: a) assess the current nutritional/food security situation in Karamoja and determine whether there has been a deterioration/improvement since the last survey in May 2000; and b) recommend actions required in the areas of food security, nutrition, and early warning. Other participants in the assessment included Lutheran World Federation (LWF), government departments, NGOs and community-based organizations (CBOs), as well as UN agencies.

Working in six separate teams, three per district, Oxfam and partners surveyed the two districts concurrently using a standard two-stage, random cluster sampling methodology. Thirty (30) clusters, each having approximately 30 children aged 6-59 months, were selected at random relative to the population size of each county, sub-county and parish, using GoU population estimates for 1998 based on the 1991 population census. Three main types of data were collected:

· Anthropometric, weight and height as well as the presence of edema, measles immunization status, and diseases over the last two weeks · Status of household food security, including availability of water, health services and morbidity · Household data relating to household size, composition of household, and deaths in the last 3 months

Results of the assessment indicate that there is no nutritional or food security crisis in Karamoja at the current time. Specifically, the assessment found there was an improvement in the population’s nutritional status since the last assessment carried out in Kotido District in May 2000, when the overall malnutrition rate was found to be 10.7 percent. Moderate acute malnutrition was found to be 7.6 and 7.3 percent for Kotido and Moroto Districts, respectively, while severe acute malnutrition was 0.4 and 0.5 percent, respectively. Nonetheless, OXFAM cautions that the results should be interpreted within the context of prevailing seasonal conditions because the harvest had just ended and food was still available as the dry season begins. Therefore, improvement in nutritional conditions was expected. This is expected to change with the onset of the normal “hunger period” in March to July as food supplies decrease, leading to deterioration of nutritional status. A higher number of malnourished children were observed in the eastern arid pastoral belt, on the Kenya border. OXFAM therefore recommends that future surveys concentrate on 'food economy zones', rather than districts.

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The assessment found that although the two districts produced a lower than normal harvest, food security conditions had improved. Current strategies being used by the majority of households to obtain food and income enable sustainability of resources compared with strategies used at the time of the last assessment. Nonetheless, the continued exploitation of natural resources, such as trees, which are scarce in Karamoja, could have longer-term effect on both the environment and on livelihoods. The assessment also revealed that overall livestock conditions were fair, but that pastoralists had begun their normal seasonal movement to neighboring districts in search of pasture and water. For comprehensive monitoring of the region, OXFAM recommends that regular monitoring of the food security situation in the different zones of Karamoja be done through setting up of an early warning system.