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Genting Singapore Singapore Company Guide Genting Singapore Version12 | Bloomberg: GENS SP | Reuters: GENS.SI Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 26 Feb 2018 BUY Still holding the winning hand Last Traded Price ( 23 Feb 2018): S$1.30 (STI : 3,533.22) Price Target 12-mth: S$1.49 (15% upside) (Prev S$1.51) Rally not over. We maintain our BUY call on Genting Singapore (GENS) with a revised TP of S$1.49. While GENS’ share price has Analyst rallied by over 45% since our upgrade to BUY in August 2017, Mervin SONG, CFA +65 6682 3715 [email protected] we believe the rally can continue. Our view is underpinned by expected positive newsflow including the continued recovery in What’s New earnings, details of a more efficient capital structure, refresh of • 4Q17 adjusted EBITDA up 9% y-o-y to S$255m, in line Resorts World Sentosa, and bid for a Japanese casino. with expectations Where we differ – Deserves to trade at average EV/EBITDA • Second consecutive quarterly y-o-y improvement in VIP multiple. While consensus has increased their TP over the past rolling chip volumes offset by lower VIP win rate of few months, the implied EV/EVITDA multiple remains below 2.7% GENS’ average multiple of c.12x. We believe GENS deserves to • Sustained earnings recovery in 2018 trade at its average EV/EBITDA multiple given a sustained earnings recovery outlook. Furthermore, the reasons why GENS traded below its average multiple, namely elevated bad debts and falling earnings, are no longer present. Price Relative S$ Relative Index 1.5 211 1.4 Re-rating catalyst. Despite the recent turnaround in profitability, 191 1.3 171 1.2 some investors remain sceptical over the sustainability of GENS’ 1.1 151 1.0 131 0.9 111 earnings recovery. We believe as we progress throughout 2018, 0.8 91 0.7 71 as GENS selectively extends credit to its VIP customers which 0.6 51 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 should translate to higher y-o-y increase in earnings, this Genting Singapore (LHS) Relative STI (RHS) scepticism should subside, resulting in a further re-rating of GENS’ share price. Forecasts and Valuation FY Dec (S$ m) 2016A 2017A 2018F 2019F Valuation: Revenue 2,228 2,393 2,452 2,566 EBITDA 779 1,151 1,229 1,273 On the back of the Singapore government’s plans to raise the Pre-tax Profit 497 860 965 1,016 GST rate to 9% between 2021-2025 from 7% currently, we Net Profit 266 601 762 803 lowered our DCF-based TP to S$1.49 from S$1.51. Our Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 256 618 762 803 Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) 10.3 141.8 23.3 5.3 valuation excludes the Japan casino. EPS (S cts) 2.21 4.99 6.33 6.66 EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 2.12 5.13 6.33 6.66 Key Risks to Our View: EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) 11 142 23 5 Decline in VIP and mass businesses. The key risk to our positive Diluted EPS (S cts) 2.22 4.99 6.33 6.67 view is a slower-than-expected recovery or decline in GENS’ VIP Net DPS (S cts) 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 BV Per Share (S cts) 60.1 61.8 65.4 68.9 and mass divisions. PE (X) 58.8 26.1 20.5 19.5 PE Pre Ex. (X) 61.2 25.3 20.5 19.5 At A Glance P/Cash Flow (X) 13.4 12.5 13.7 12.5 Issued Capital (m shrs) 12,039 EV/EBITDA (X) 18.2 11.3 10.2 9.5 Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) 15,651 / 11,864 Net Div Yield (%) 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.5 Major Shareholders (%) P/Book Value (X) 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH Genting Bhd 52.8 ROAE (%) 3.7 8.2 10.0 9.9 Free Float (%) 47.2 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 23.2 Earnings Rev (%): 3 7 ICB Industry : Consumer Services / Travel & Leisure Consensus EPS (S cts): 6.30 6.50 Other Broker Recs: B: 15 S: 0 H: 7 Source of all data on this page: Company, DBS Bank, Bloomberg Finance L.P ed: JS / sa:SM, PY, CS Company Guide Genting Singapore WHAT’S NEW Second consecutive quarterly y-o-y improvement in VIP rolling chip volumes 4Q17 results in line with expectations Progress made for Japan casino with Sentosa redevelopment • GENS continued its recovery in earnings with 4Q17 still under discussions with the authorities adjusted EBITDA and normalised profit (excluding • GENS guided that the Integrated Resort (IR) execution bill exceptional items) up 9% and 44% y-o-y to S$255m and should be introduced in the current Diet session over the S$134m respectively which was in line with expectations. coming month or so. Should be the bill be passed, the bill • The improvement was underpinned by low double digit may still take some time to pass the upper house. y-o-y improvement (estimated to be between 10-13%) in However, GENS remains positive on the potential for VIP rolling chip to c.US$5.5bn (flat q-o-q) up from eventual bidding of an IR in Japan in 2019 with Osaka a c.US$4.8bn in 4Q16. This was partially offset by a VIP location the group is interested in building an IR. win rate of 2.7% which is at the lower end of the 2.7- • Meanwhile, there were no further updates on the 3.0% theoretical range versus 2.8% achieved in 4Q16. potential redevelopment of its Resorts World Sentosa The increase in VIP rolling chip we understand was broad (RWS) property. based with growth from China as well as South East Asian countries. Recovery to continue into 2018 • Combined mass drop and slots handle gross gaming • Heading into 2018, we expect the recovery in earnings to revenue was also reported to be up over 20% y-o-y. continue with adjusted EBITDA rising 7% y-o-y. • GENS earnings was also boosted by a decline in bad Underpinning the sustained recovery is a 10% increase in debts to c.S$5m from S$39m in 4Q16 and S$14m in rolling chip volumes (up from our previously forecast of 3Q17. 7% given a stronger USDSGD exchange rate 1.35 versus • However, GENS adjusted EBITDA was down 20% q-o-q 1.37 previously) as GENS selectively extends credit to its owing to bonuses accrued a year end, higher VIP customers. However, we expect the mass business to commissions and lower VIP win rate (2.7% versus 3.1% remain flat y-o-y. With the increase in earnings, we in 3Q17). expect this to translate to a higher dividend of 4.0 Scts up from 3.5 Scts in FY17. Surprise increase in dividend • For FY19, we expect VIP rolling chip and mass business to • GENS declared a 2.0 Scts final dividend taking full year increase to rise 3% y-o-y. 2017 dividend to 3.5 Scts per share. This is an increase • Based on a slight tweak in our assumptions, we changed from 3.0 Scts in 2016 and previous guidance of our FY18/19F adjusted EBITDA by -1/+2% with our maintaining an annual dividend of 3.0 Scts. FY18/19F normalised profit higher by 3%/7% on reduced • We understand the increase in dividend was based on interest costs due to lower than expected borrowings. the group’s increased confidence in its future cash flows. • We have also lowered our DCF-based TP to S$1.49 from • For 2018 and beyond, GENS was unwilling to provide S$1.51 previously as we imputed higher GST rate from guidance on the potential increase in dividend assuming 2021 onwards given plans by the Singapore government a further increase in earnings ahead. to raise GST rate to 9% between 2021-2025, from 7% previously. Our TP implies a EV/EBITDA multiple of c.12x Strong financial position in line with GENS’s average EV/EBITDA multiple. • GENS remains in a strong financial position with net cash of c.S$2.7bn (c.S$4.0bn of cash and restricted cash less Maintain BUY call with revised TP of S$1.49 gross debt of S$1.2bn) as at 31 December 2017, slightly • With earnings expected to continue to recover in 2018 down from S$3.1bn at end 3Q17 as GENS had redeemed and beyond, we maintain our view that GENS’s share the c.S$500m worth of perpetual securities. price will re-rate to its average EV/EBITDA multiple of c.12x. As highlighted in our previous reports, we believe the reasons for GENS to trade at a discount to its average multiple over the past 2 years, namely rising bad debts and falling earnings, are no longer present. Page 2 Company Guide Genting Singapore Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (S$m) FY Dec 4Q2016 3Q2017 4Q2017 % chg yoy % chg qoq Revenue 558 630 580 4.0 (7.9) Cost of Goods Sold (347) (326) (345) (0.4) 6.0 Gross Profit 211 304 235 11.3 (22.8) Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (50.3) (53.3) (54.0) 7.5 1.4 Operating Profit 161 251 181 12.5 (28.0) Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc (11.6) (6.7) (14.9) (27.7) 121.4 Associates & JV Inc (4.5) 0.73 0.65 nm (12.0) Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 11.4 10.2 5.14 (54.9) (49.4) Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 66.6 (37.3) (0.9) nm (97.5) Pre-tax Profit 223 218 171 (23.3) (21.6) Tax (33.7) (49.3) (36.8) 9.3 (25.3) Minority Interest (29.7) (24.9) (1.2) 96.0 (95.2) Net Profit 159 144 133 (16.6) (7.6) Net profit bef Except.
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