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Changes of High Altitude Glaciers in the Trans-Himalaya of Ladakh Over the Past Five Decades (1969–2016)

Changes of High Altitude Glaciers in the Trans-Himalaya of Ladakh Over the Past Five Decades (1969–2016)

geosciences

Article Changes of High Altitude Glaciers in the Trans-Himalaya of over the Past Five Decades (1969–2016)

Susanne Schmidt * and Marcus Nüsser

Department of Geography, South Asia Institute, Heidelberg University, 69120 Heidelberg, Germany; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +49-6221-548914

Academic Editors: Ulrich Kamp and Jesus Martinez-Frias Received: 14 March 2017; Accepted: 12 April 2017; Published: 14 April 2017

Abstract: Climatic differences between monsoonal and cold-arid parts of the South Asian mountain arc account for the uncertainty regarding regional variations in glacier retreat. In this context, the upper Indus Basin of Ladakh, sandwiched between the Himalayan and ranges, is of particular interest. The aims of the present study are threefold: to map the glaciers of central and eastern Ladakh, to describe their regional distribution and characteristics in relation to size and topography, and to analyze glacier changes in the selected ranges over the past five decades. The study is based on multi-temporal remote sensing data (Corona and Landsat), supported and validated by several field campaigns carried out between 2007 and 2016. A glacier inventory was carried out for the complete study area, which was subdivided into nine sub-regions for comparison. In general, the glaciers of Ladakh are characterized by their high altitude, as 91% terminate above 5200 m, and by their relatively small size, as 79% of them are smaller than 0.75 km2 and only 4% are larger than 2 km2. The glaciated area of central Ladakh totaled 997 km2 with more than 1800 glaciers in 2002.

Keywords: glacier inventory; small glaciers; Himalayan cryosphere; Trans-Himalaya; Ladakh

1. Introduction The 2007 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report predicted that by 2035 the Himalayan region would be ice-free [1]. This erroneous forecast initiated a huge interest in regional glacier studies [2–4]. In contrast to often simplified assumptions of general and mostly rapid glacier retreat, recent studies show a more complex and spatially differentiated pattern of retreat, stability, and advance. Climatic differences between monsoonal and cold-arid regions account for another uncertainty in general trends of glacier change at the Himalayan scale [5–9]. Whereas the majority of glaciers in the monsoonal portions of the central and eastern Himalaya, between Himachal Pradesh in the west and Bhutan in the east, are receding at different rates [10], changes are less pronounced in the western Himalaya [11–14] and in the adjoining Karakoram [15]. Some Karakoram glaciers have advanced since the 1990s [16–19] or have been in balance since the 1970s [20]. This suggests that the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh is likely to be located at the interface between decreasing and increasing glaciers. Due to the semi-arid condition of Ladakh, glaciers are relatively small (<0.75 km2) and are typically restricted to high altitudes. Despite their small size, the water stored in these glaciers determines the potential for irrigated crop cultivation, which forms the basis for regional food security and socio-economic development [21–24]. Even small climatic shifts influence water storage and runoff [25,26] and in years with low summer precipitation, snow and ice melt becomes the only water

Geosciences 2017, 7, 27; doi:10.3390/geosciences7020027 www.mdpi.com/journal/geosciences Geosciences 2017, 7, 27 2 of 15

Geosciences 2017, 7, 27 2 of 15 source [5]. Thus, the question is not merely whether or not the glaciers retreat, but also how quickly quicklyretreat isretreat occurring is occurring and what and consequences what consequences this has forthis melt has waterfor melt availability water availability [27,28]. The [27,28]. perception The perceptionof the local of inhabitantsthe local inhabitants appears toappears be that to glaciersbe that glaciers in Ladakh in Ladakh have shrunk have shrunk drastically drastically over recentover recentdecades decades [29]. Despite [29]. Despite the importance the importance of melt of water melt runoff,water runoff, a glacier a inventoryglacier inventory is still missing is still missing and only andfew only studies few havestudies documented have documented recent changes recent changes in selected in regionsselected ofregions Ladakh of [Ladakh14,15,30 ,[14,15,30,31].31]. TheThe study study area area is islocated located in the in the upper upper Indus Indus Basin Basin [32], [ 32sandwiched], sandwiched between between the Karakoram the Karakoram and Himalayanand Himalayan Ranges. Ranges. It includes It includes the Ladakh the Rangeand the and Pangong the Pangong Range to Range the north to the of north the upper of the Indusupper Valley Indus and Valley the and ranges the rangesof , of Rong, Stok, Kang Rong, Yatze, Kang Yatze,Korzog, Korzog, and Zangskar and Zangskar (between (between Kaltser Kaltser and 2 Tsoand Moriri) ) to the tosouth the of south the Indus of the River Indus (Fig Riverure (Figure1). It covers1). It an covers area anof about area of 28,500 about km 28,5002 ranging km inranging elevation in elevationfrom about from 2800 about m in 2800 the m lowermost in the lowermost sections sections of the Indus of the Indusand and Shyok Valleys Valleys to the to highestthe highest peaks peaks of about of about 6700 6700m a.s.l. m a.s.l.(above (above sea level; sea level;all elevations all elevations are in are m a.s.l.) in m a.s.l.)in the inKorzog the Korzog and Pangongand Pangong Ranges. Ranges.

FigureFigure 1. 1. TheThe study study area: area: mountain mountain ranges ranges of of cent centralral and and eastern eastern Ladakh, Ladakh, Northwest Northwest . India.

TheThe semi-arid semi-arid climate climate of of Ladakh Ladakh is is caused caused by by the the rain rain shadow shadow effect effect of of the the Karakoram Karakoram and and Himalaya.Himalaya. Mean Mean annual annual precipitation precipitation of of the the upper upper In Indusdus basin basin decreases decreases from from west west to to east east and and south south toto north north [33]. [33]. In In the the main main administrative administrative center center of of Leh (3506 (3506 m), m), located located in in the the Indus Indus Valley, Valley, mean mean annualannual precipitation precipitation amounts amounts to to approximately approximately 100 100 mm mm [34]. [34]. Roughly Roughly one one third third of of the the total total annual annual precipitationprecipitation is is associated withwith westerlywesterly disturbancesdisturbances occurring occurring between between December December and and February February [31 ]. [31].As inAs the in the adjacent adjacent Karakoram, Karakoram, slope slope wind wind circulation circulation may may result result in in significant significant underestimation underestimation of ofprecipitation precipitation [35 [35].]. The The denser denser cover cover of of grasses grasses and and dwarf dwarf shrubs shrubs at at higher higher altitudes altitudes alsoalso suggestssuggests a avertical vertical gradientgradient inin precipitationprecipitation [[36,37].36,37]. The dominant input input of of snow snow into into the the glacial glacial system system occurs occurs inin winter, winter, but but precipitation precipitation may may fall fall as as snow snow at at higher higher altitudes altitudes throughout throughout the the year. year. Our Our own own observations,observations, remote remote sensing sensing data, data, as as well well as as observations observations by by other other research research groups groups [36] [36 ]confirm confirm regularregular summer summer snowfallsnowfall atat altitudes altitudes above above 5000 5000 m, resultingm, resulting in increased in increased surface surface albedo albedo and reduced and reduced ablation of snow and ice. Mean monthly temperatures in Leh range from −7.2 °C in January to 17.9 °C in July. Mean annual temperature was 5.6 °C during the period from 1951–1980 [34], which is unusually high for these elevations [38]. Due to low mean annual air temperatures and low annual

Geosciences 2017, 7, 27 3 of 15 ablation of snow and ice. Mean monthly temperatures in Leh range from −7.2 ◦C in January to 17.9 ◦C in July. Mean annual temperature was 5.6 ◦C during the period from 1951–1980 [34], which is unusually high for these elevations [38]. Due to low mean annual air temperatures and low annual precipitation, the glaciers in Ladakh are of a continental type [39]. The existence of lakes on and beside these glaciers, causing several glacier lake outburst floods [40,41], indicate their polythermal character. The aim of the present study is to inventory the glaciers of central and eastern Ladakh and to describe their regional distribution and characteristics in relation to size and topography by using Landsat imagery of the new millennium. A historical analysis of the detected glacier changes is then performed based on a select number of mountain ranges over five decades using multi-temporal remote sensing data (Corona and Landsat), further validated by several field campaigns carried out between 2007 and 2016.

2. Materials and Methods A remote sensing approach based on Landsat imagery was applied to map the spatial distribution of glaciers. Landsat images from 2002 were used to delineate glacier boundaries using a standardized semi-automatic approach based on the red/shortwave Infrared band ratio [42]. Although this method is robust and time-efficient in delineating clean ice, additional manual correction of glacier boundaries is almost always necessary, especially for shadowed areas, debris-covered ice, lakes, and other misclassified pixels [43]. The required threshold for image segmentation varied from one region to the other and had to be estimated separately for each individual area of interest [44]. The classified ice and snow covered areas were separated into entities on the basis of generated watersheds, extracted from the Global Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) by using the Hydrology Tool in ArcGIS 10.3.1, which were then manually corrected. For further analysis, the separated ice and snow covered areas, labeled by the corresponding watershed number, were transformed to vector data. Polygons larger than 0.02 km2 were categorized as glaciers and perennial snow cover, conducted by visual image interpretation. Topographic parameters (elevation, aspect, minimum elevation, and median) were derived by using the GDEM. In order to evaluate the influence of topography on glacier distribution, the hypsographic curve for nine mountain ranges (Figure1), defined as subregions, as well as the complete study area was plotted against its elevational distribution [45]. In order to consider the different range sizes, the percentage of glaciated area was calculated for each mountain range. The topographic parameters of the glaciers (median, aspect, minimum elevation) were compared region wise. In order to detect glacier changes, multi-temporal and multi-scale remote sensing data were analyzed. Landsat data allow for glacier monitoring from the 1980s and declassified CORONA images from the early US-military reconnaissance survey extend the period to the 1960s [46]. The temporal resolution of satellite images for glacier analyses is generally limited by the availability of archived datasets [47]. To minimize the effect of seasonal snow cover, images from the period between the end of the ablation season and the first snow fall event were considered optimal for the purpose of the study [48]. Although the Trans-Himalaya falls within the rain shadow of the monsoonal air masses, most summer images of the study area are cloud- or snow-covered. Thus, the number of suitable images for the current study decreased significantly (Table1). All Landsat images were available in Level 1T showing a shift of less than one Landsat pixel (projected in Universal Transverse Mercator, World Geodetic System (UTM, WGS 84). In order to orthorectify the Corona images, the required Ground Control Points were selected on the Landsat 2002 images (Landsat 2003 for the Lungser Range) and corresponding height-values were derived from the GDEM. The complete process of orthorectification was conducted using the software package ENVI 5.3 (for further details see [31]). The glaciers were mapped semi-automatically on Landsat images for the selected years. On panchromatic CORONA images, glaciers were digitized on screen in a Geographical Information System (ArcGIS 10.3.1) based on a detailed visual image interpretation, partly confirmed Geosciences 2017, 7, 27 4 of 15 by photographical field records and ground truth data, including Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements.

Table 1. Satellite data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) used in this study (Pan = panchromatic, VIS = visible, IR = Infrared).

Satellite Type Acquisition Date ID 3 Spatial Resolution [m × m] Spectral Resolution DS1107-1104DA013— DS1107-1104DA020 Corona 1 30 July 1969 2 Pan DS1107-1104DA023— DS1107-1104DA025 LE71470372000257SGS00 Landsat 7 1 13 September 2000 15, 30 Pan, VIS, IR LE71470362000257SGS00 Landsat 7 1 31 October 2000 LE71470362000305SGS00 LE71470372002214SGS00 Landsat 7 1 2 August 2002 15, 30 Pan, VIS, IR LE71470362002214SGS00 30 September 2003 LE71460372003274ASN01 Landsat 7 1 15, 30 Pan, VIS, IR 2 August 2003 LE71460372003290ASN01 LT51470362009273KHC00 Landsat 5 1 30 September 2009 30 VIS, IR LT51470372009273KHC00 LT51470362010260KHC00 Landsat 5 1 17 September 2010 30 VIS, IR LT51470372010260KHC00 11 August 2014 LC81470372014223LGN00 Landsat 8 1 15, 30 Pan, VIS, IR 20 August 2014 LC81460372014232LGN00 LC81470362015242LGN00 Landsat 8 1 30 August 2015 15, 30 Pan, VIS, IR LC81470372015242LGN00 Landsat 8 1 3 October 2016 LC81470362016277LGN00 15, 30 Pan, VIS, IR ASTGDEMV2_0N32E076 ASTGDEMV2_0N32E077 ASTGDEMV2_0N32E078 ASTGDEMV2_0N33E076 ASTER GDEM 1,2 ASTGDEMV2_0N33E077 30 ASTGDEMV2_0N33E078 ASTGDEMV2_0N34E076 ASTGDEMV2_0N34E077 ASTGDEMV2_0N34E078 1 Data downloaded from http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov; 2 ASTER GDEM (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Model) is a product of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan (METI) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); all Landsat images were available in L 1T.

Only categorized glaciers in selected mountain ranges and tributaries were considered for change detection analyses between 1969 and 2016 (Table1). In order to analyze patterns of front variations, the lengths of selected valley and cirque glaciers were measured. For maximum glacier length, central flowlines were derived from the GDEM using the Hydrology Tool and corrected manually [49]. Finally, terminus variations were calculated as the difference between glacier lengths over time periods. This approach allowed for an elimination of subpixel-shifts between the co-registered images.

3. Results The hypsographic curve of the study area shows that 68% of the land surface is located between 4400 and 5600 m, with a relative maximum of 13% in the altitudinal class of 4600–4800 m and 4800–5000 m. The relative maximum of the altitudinal zone varies between the mountain ranges from 4400–4600 m in the Stok Range to 5400–5600 m in the Eastern Ladakh Range (Figure2). Separate analyses of the mountain ranges illustrate variations along the hypsographic curve, with increasing elevations towards the east. In the Eastern Zangskar, Korzog, and Pangong Ranges, elevation classes below 3800 m do not exist and more than 40% of the mountain ranges are higher than 5200 m; whilst at the other end of the hypsographic distribution, the mountain ranges of Stok and Central Zangskar show only 8% and 18% of area above 5200 m, respectively. Geosciences 2017, 7, 27 5 of 15 Geosciences 2017, 7, 27 5 of 15

Figure 2. Hypsographic curve of the study area, differentiated for individual mountain ranges Figure 2. Hypsographic curve of the study area, differentiated for individual mountain ranges (altitude (altitude derived from the Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM). derived from the Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM).

3.1. Glacier Distribution 3.1. Glacier Distribution More than 1800 glaciers covered an area of 997 km2 (1052 km2 including about 850 perennial More than 1800 glaciers covered an area of 997 km2 (1052 km2 including about 850 perennial snow patches) in central Ladakh in 2002. The glaciers are characterized by their relatively small size: snow patches) in central Ladakh in 2002. The glaciers are characterized by their relatively small Seventy-nine percent of them are smaller than 0.75 km2 and only 4% are larger than 2 km2. Fifty-seven size: Seventy-nine percent of them are smaller than 0.75 km2 and only 4% are larger than 2 km2. percent of the glaciers larger than 2 km2 are located in the Korzog and Central Ladakh Ranges (Figure Fifty-seven percent of the glaciers larger than 2 km2 are located in the Korzog and Central Ladakh 3), where the largest glacier with an area of about 6.5 km2 is located. In comparison to the main Ranges (Figure3), where the largest glacier with an area of about 6.5 km 2 is located. In comparison to Himalayan Range, almost all glaciers are free of debris-cover, illustrative of the importance of the main Himalayan Range, almost all glaciers are free of debris-cover, illustrative of the importance of snowfall as the main input as opposed to the influence of snow redistribution by avalanches. As the snowfall as the main input as opposed to the influence of snow redistribution by avalanches. As the majority of glaciers are located in the Central and Eastern Ladakh Range, the largest ice cover occurs majority of glaciers are located in the Central and Eastern Ladakh Range, the largest ice cover occurs here with more than 300 km2 in the Central Ladakh Range and about 208 km2 in the Eastern Ladakh here with more than 300 km2 in the Central Ladakh Range and about 208 km2 in the Eastern Ladakh Range. In the west, the smallest glacier cover can be found in the ranges of Stok (13 km2) and Rong (8 Range. In the west, the smallest glacier cover can be found in the ranges of Stok (13 km2) and Rong km2) (Figure 3). Only in the Pangong Range, with its relatively high overall altitude, does the (8 km2) (Figure3). Only in the Pangong Range, with its relatively high overall altitude, does the percentage of glaciated area amount to almost 10%. Due to the large area extent below 4900 m, in the percentage of glaciated area amount to almost 10%. Due to the large area extent below 4900 m, in the Central Ladakh Range it is reduced to only 6%. Referring only to the regions above 4900 m, where Central Ladakh Range it is reduced to only 6%. Referring only to the regions above 4900 m, where most most glaciers are found, the highest percentage are detected in the Central Ladakh Range and the glaciers are found, the highest percentage are detected in the Central Ladakh Range and the Pangong Pangong Range with 15% and 16%, respectively, followed by the Kang Yatze Massif with 11%. The Range with 15% and 16%, respectively, followed by the Kang Yatze Massif with 11%. The lowest lowest percentage of glaciated area, less than 2%, can be detected in the Rong and Eastern Zangskar percentage of glaciated area, less than 2%, can be detected in the Rong and Eastern Zangskar Ranges Ranges (Figure 4). (Figure4). Overall, the glaciers of Ladakh are characterized by their high altitudinal termini, with 91% of Overall, the glaciers of Ladakh are characterized by their high altitudinal termini, with 91% of them situated above 5200 m. In comparison, the minimum altitude of the debris-covered Siachen them situated above 5200 m. In comparison, the minimum altitude of the debris-covered , located in the upper Shyok Valley of the eastern Karakoram, reaches approximately 3570 m. Glacier, located in the upper Shyok Valley of the eastern Karakoram, reaches approximately 3570 m. However, in the Central Zangskar and Central Ladakh Ranges, about 20% and 24%, respectively, of However, in the Central Zangskar and Central Ladakh Ranges, about 20% and 24%, respectively, of the glacier tongues stretch down to elevations below 5200 m, whereas in the adjacent Stok Range, the glacier tongues stretch down to elevations below 5200 m, whereas in the adjacent Stok Range, about 8% reach this elevation. In all other regions, the glaciers end above 5200 m and even in the about 8% reach this elevation. In all other regions, the glaciers end above 5200 m and even in the Korzog and Rong Ranges above about 5390 m. In all mountain ranges the percentage of glaciated Korzog and Rong Ranges above about 5390 m. In all mountain ranges the percentage of glaciated area area increases with altitude; the Central Ladakh Range and the Pangong Range showing their increases with altitude; the Central Ladakh Range and the Pangong Range showing their maximum maximum above 5800 m with 47% and 43%, respectively (Figure 4). above 5800 m with 47% and 43%, respectively (Figure4).

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Figure 3. Number of glaciers (A) and glaciated area per size class (B) in the subregions (CLR: Central Figure 3. Number of glaciers (A) and glaciated area per size class (B) in the subregions (CLR: Central LadakhFigure 3. Range, Number ELR: of Easternglaciers Ladakh (A) and Range, glaciated PR: area Pang perong size Range, class SR: (B) Stokin the Range, subregions R: Rong (CLR: Range, Central KR: Ladakh Range, ELR: Eastern Ladakh Range, PR: Pangong Range, SR: Stok Range, R: Rong Range, KR: KorzogLadakh Range,Range, KY:ELR: Kang Eastern Yatze Ladakh Range, Range, CRZ: CentraPR: Pangl Zangskarong Range, Range, SR: Stok EZR: Range, Eastern R: Zangskar Rong Range, Range). KR: Korzog Range, KY: Kang Yatze Range, CRZ: Central Zangskar Range, EZR: Eastern Zangskar Range). Korzog Range, KY: Kang Yatze Range, CRZ: Central Zangskar Range, EZR: Eastern Zangskar Range).

Figure 4. Percentage of glaciated area in relation to altitudinal zones (altitude derived from GDEM). Figure 4. Percentage of glaciated area in relation to altitudinal zones (altitude derived from GDEM). Figure 4. Percentage of glaciated area in relation to altitudinal zones (altitude derived from GDEM). Another important topographic parameter is the median elevation, which is widely used to estimateAnother the importantlong-term topographicmean equilibrium parameter line is altitudethe median (ELA) elevation, [50]. Thewhich ELA is widelyis located used atto Another important topographic parameter is the median elevation, which is widely used to approximatelyestimate the long-term5690 m and mean it increases equilibrium from linewest altitudeto northeast. (ELA) The [50]. Central The LadakhELA is and located Central at estimate the long-term mean equilibrium line altitude (ELA) [50]. The ELA is located at approximately Zangskarapproximately Range 5690 have m a andmean it ELAincreases of about from 5500 west m, towhereas northeast. in the The Pangong Central and Ladakh Korzog and Range Central the 5690 m and it increases from west to northeast. The Central Ladakh and Central Zangskar Range have averagedZangskar ELARange is locatedhave a meanat an altitudeELA of aboutof about 5500 5970 m, andwhereas 5950 inm, the respectively. Pangong and Korzog Range the a mean ELA of about 5500 m, whereas in the Pangong and Korzog Range the averaged ELA is located averagedAbout ELA 73% is oflocated the glaciated at an altitude area is of located about 5970 on NW- and 5950to NE-facing m, respectively. slopes, whereas south-facing at an altitude of about 5970 and 5950 m, respectively. slopesAbout only 73%have of an the ice glaciated cover ofarea 10%. is located However, on NW- due toto NE-facingthe steepness slopes, of whereasslopes in south-facing the upper catchments,slopes only includinghave an icethe coverhighest of elevations,10%. However, non-glaciated due to theregions steepness exist, ofwhich slopes are inprominently the upper locatedcatchments, on south including facing theslopes. highest The elevations,tendency of non- glacierglaciated occurrence regions in northernexist, which aspects are confirmsprominently the located on south facing slopes. The tendency of glacier occurrence in northern aspects confirms the

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About 73% of the glaciated area is located on NW- to NE-facing slopes, whereas south-facing slopes only have an ice cover of 10%. However, due to the steepness of slopes in the upper catchments, including the highest elevations, non-glaciated regions exist, which are prominently located on south facing slopes. The tendency of glacier occurrence in northern aspects confirms the Geosciences 2017, 7, 27 7 of 15 importance of shadowing effects and radiation incidence in affecting glacier mass balance. Additionally, a slightimportance east-west asymmetryof shadowing of effects glaciated and areasradiation can beincidence observed, in affecting with more glacier ice-covered mass balance. areas in the east. ThisGeosciencesAdditionally, can 2017 be, explained 7a, 27slight east-west by more asymmetry effective of glacia meltingted areas on can western be observed, slopes with in more the ice-covered afternoon7 of 15 when the combinationareas in the ofeast. potential This can be incident explained solar by more radiation effective and melting air temperature on western slopes is at in a the maximum afternoon [51,52]. This asymmetricimportancewhen the combination distributionof shadowing of ispotential effects more accentuatedincidentand radiation solar radiationifincidence the snow and in cover airaffecting temperature distribution glacier is atmass isa maximumalso balance. considered Additionally,[51,52]. This asymmetrica slight east-west distribu asymmetrytion is more of glacia accentuatedted areas canif the be observed,snow cover with distribution more ice-covered is also (Figure5). areasconsidered in the (Figureeast. This 5). can be explained by more effective melting on western slopes in the afternoon when the combination of potential incident solar radiation and air temperature is at a maximum [51,52]. This asymmetric distribution is more accentuated if the snow cover distribution is also considered (Figure 5).

Figure 5. Aspect of the glaciated area and perennial snow cover patches in the subregions of Ladakh. Figure 5. Aspect of the glaciated area and perennial snow cover patches in the subregions of Ladakh. 3.2. Glacier Changes in Selected Watersheds and Ranges of Central and Eastern Ladakh 3.2. Glacier ChangesFigure 5. Aspect in Selected of the glaciated Watersheds area and and perennial Ranges sn ofow Central cover patches and Eastern in the subregions Ladakh of Ladakh. 3.2.1. Central Ladakh Range 3.2.1. Central3.2. GlacierThe Ladakh glacier Changes Rangechanges in Selected are Watershedsshown for and two Ranges watersheds of Central of andthe EasternCentral Ladakh Ladakh Range. The first example is the catchment of Leh, located in a northern tributary of the Indus in the Central Ladakh The3.2.1. glacier Central changes Ladakh are Range shown for two watersheds of the Central Ladakh Range. The first example Range, with elevations from 3280 to 5750 m. In the upper catchment, two glaciers and some small is the catchment of Leh, located in a northern tributary of the Indus in the Central Ladakh Range, perennialThe glaciersnow patches changes exist. are Theshown Phutse for Glaciertwo watersheds in close proximity of the Central to the KhardongLadakh Range. La (Figure The 6)first is with elevationsexamplelocated at isfrom thethe westerncatchment 3280 to side 5750 of ofLeh, m.the located Incatchment the in upper a norton the catchment,hern NE tributary to E-facing two of the glaciersslopes Indus above in and the 5365someCentral m. small LadakhIts area perennial snow patchesRange,decreased with exist. from elevations The0.74 km Phutse 2from in 1969 3280 Glacier to to0.64 5750 inkm close2m. in In2002 proximitythe (13%, upper 0.4% catchment, to yr the−1) and Khardong twolost anotherglaciers La 0.04and (Figure kmsome2 by6 small )2016 is located at the westernperennial(6%, 0.4% side snowyr−1). of In patches thethe same catchment exist. observation The Phutse on the period, Glacier NE the to in E-facingglacier close proximity front slopes retreated to above the by Khardong about 5365 248 m. La m Its(Figure (5.3 area m yr 6) decreased− 1is). from 0.74locatedThe km glacier2 atin the retreat 1969 western towas 0.64 acceleratedside km of 2thein bycatchment 2002 a proglacial (13%, on 0.4% thelake NE which yr to−1 E-facing) caused and lost twoslopes anothersmall above glacier 0.045365 lake kmm. outburst 2Itsby area 2016 (6%, 0.4% yrdecreasedfloods−1). In in the 1998 from same and 0.74 2006 observationkm 2(pers. in 1969 comm. to 0.64 period, Tashi km2 Morupin the 2002 glacier (13%,and [53,54]). 0.4% front yr retreated −1) and lost byanother about 0.04 248 km m2 by (5.3 2016 m yr−1). (6%, 0.4% yr−1). In the same observation period, the glacier front retreated by about 248 m (5.3 m yr−1). The glacier retreat was accelerated by a proglacial lake which caused two small glacier lake outburst The glacier retreat was accelerated by a proglacial lake which caused two small glacier lake outburst floods infloods 1998 in and 1998 2006 and 2006 (pers. (pers. comm. comm. Tashi Tashi Morup Morup and [53,54]). [53,54]).

Figure 6. Phutse Glacier in the upper catchment of Leh near Kardung La (Photo: S. Schmidt, 18 September 2016).

Figure 6. Phutse Glacier in the upper catchment of Leh near Kardung La (Photo: S. Schmidt, 18 FigureSeptember 6. Phutse 2016). Glacier in the upper catchment of Leh near Kardung La (Photo: S. Schmidt, 18 September 2016).

Geosciences 2017, 7, 27 8 of 15 Geosciences 2017, 7, 27 8 of 15 Nangtse Glacier is the second glacier in the catchment, located above 5305 m on the N to Nangtse Glacier is the second glacier in the catchment, located above 5305 m on the N to NW- NW-facing slopes and retreating at a slightly lower rate. Its area decreased from 0.45 km2 in 1969 to facing slopes and retreating at a slightly lower rate. Its area decreased from 0.45 km2 in 1969 to 0.42 0.42 km2 in 2002 (7%, 0.2% yr−1) to 0.39 km2 in 2016 (7%, 0.5% yr−1). km2 in 2002 (7%, 0.2% yr−1) to 0.39 km2 in 2016 (7%, 0.5% yr−1). The second example, the Shukpachan catchment, is located approximately 50 km to the The second example, the catchment, is located approximately 50 km to the west of Leh. The elevation of the north-south oriented valley ranges from 3000 to 5670 m. At an west of Leh. The elevation of the north-south oriented valley ranges from 3000 to 5670 m. At an altitude of approximately 4900 m, this valley is subdivided into an eastern and a western branch altitude of approximately 4900 m, this valley is subdivided into an eastern and a western branch (Figure7). In the eastern tributary, one cirque glacier reaches down to 5130 m and one hanging glacier (Figure 7). In the eastern tributary, one cirque glacier reaches down to 5130 m and one hanging glacier to 5240 m; while in the western tributary, three cirque glaciers are located above 5090 m. In front to 5240 m; while in the western tributary, three cirque glaciers are located above 5090 m. In front of of all cirque glaciers, large ice filled moraines including tills, terminal moraines, and two proglacial all cirque glaciers, large ice filled moraines including tills, terminal moraines, and two proglacial lakes are present. The uppermost lake, located at an elevation of 5310 m, is frozen almost year-round. lakes are present. The uppermost lake, located at an elevation of 5310 m, is frozen almost year-round. The glaciated area is largely located on NW- to N-facing slopes, and it is only at its uppermost reaches The glaciated area is largely located on NW- to N-facing slopes, and it is only at its uppermost reaches that it is dominantly exposed to the west. The total glaciated area, including the area covered by that it is dominantly exposed to the west. The total glaciated area, including the area covered by perennial snow, decreased from 4.1 to 2.5 km2 between 1969 and 2016 (38%, 0.8% yr−1). Three cirque perennial snow, decreased from 4.1 to 2.5 km2 between 1969 and 2016 (38%, 0.8% yr−1). Three cirque glaciers show a decrease of about 30% (0.7% yr−1). The steep north-facing cirque glacier (Figure7A) glaciers show a decrease of about 30% (0.7% yr−1). The steep north-facing cirque glacier (Figure 7A) shows a drastic decrease of about 53% (1.1% yr−1). Contrary to the decrease of the glaciated area, shows a drastic decrease of about 53% (1.1% yr−1). Contrary to the decrease of the glaciated area, the the annual front retreat is comparably low, with a mean rate of about 3.9 m yr−1. annual front retreat is comparably low, with a mean rate of about 3.9 m yr−1.

Figure 7. N-facing glacier with a proglacial lake (A); glacier tongue in the eastern part of the catchment Figure 7. N-facing glacier with a proglacial lake (A); glacier tongue in the eastern part of the catchment in 2007 (B) and 2014 (C); Glaciers (in blue color) in the upper catchment of Hemis Shukpachan (D). in 2007 (B) and 2014 (C); Glaciers (in blue color) in the upper catchment of Hemis Shukpachan (D).

3.2.2. Stok Range 3.2.2. Stok Range The Stok Range is located on the southern bank of the , opposite to Leh. The elevation The Stok Range is located on the southern bank of the Indus River, opposite to Leh. The elevation of the SSW-NNE oriented Stok Valley ranges from 3890 m up to the highest peak of Stok Kangri (6140 of the SSW-NNE oriented Stok Valley ranges from 3890 m up to the highest peak of Stok Kangri m) (Figure 8). The minimum elevation of the six NW-NE-facing glaciers ranges between 5240 and (6140 m) (Figure8). The minimum elevation of the six NW-NE-facing glaciers ranges between 5240 5420 m. In front of the valley and cirque glaciers, large terminal moraines mark the front position and 5420 m. In front of the valley and cirque glaciers, large terminal moraines mark the front position during the Little Ice Age (Figure 9). during the Little Ice Age (Figure9).

Geosciences 2017, 7, 27 9 of 15 Geosciences 2017, 7, 27 9 of 15 Geosciences 2017, 7, 27 9 of 15

Figure 8. Upper catchment of the Stok Glacier seen from the summit of Stok Kangri (6140 m) with the Figure 8. Upper catchment of the Stok Glacier seen from the summit of Stok Kangri (6140 m) with the GolepFigure Kangri 8. Upper (5900 catchment m) in the ofbackground the Stok Glacier in 2007 seen and from 2014 the (the summit yellow of point Stok inKangri Figure (6140 10 marks m) with the the Golep Kangri (5900 m) in the background in 2007 and 2014 (the yellow point in Figure 10 marks the cameraGolep position). Kangri (5900 m) in the background in 2007 and 2014 (the yellow point in Figure 10 marks the camera position). camera position).

Figure 9. Terminal moraines of the Golep Glacier (left) and an unnamed glacier (right) of the Stok RangeFigure in 20089. Terminal (the orange moraines point ofin Fithegure Golep 10 marks Glacier the (left) camera and position).an unnamed glacier (right) of the Stok Figure 9. Terminal moraines of the Golep Glacier (left) and an unnamed glacier (right) of the Stok Range in 2008 (the orange point in Figure 10 marks the camera position). Range in 2008 (the orange point in Figure 10 marks the camera position). The glaciated area decreased from 4.42 km2 in 1969 to 4.02 km2 in 2000 (0.3% yr−1) and to 3.43 km2 inThe 2016 glaciated (0.9% yr area−1). decreasedThe main fromreason 4.42 for km the2 in drastic 1969 to decrease 4.02 km 2 ofin the2000 glaciated (0.3% yr −area1) and is to the 3.43 2 2 −1 2 The2 glaciated area decreased−1 from 4.42 km in 1969 to 4.02 km in 2000 (0.3% yr ) and to 3.43 km disappearancekm in 2016 of(0.9% snow yr and). iceThe on main the NE-E reason facing for slopes.the drastic As a consequence,decrease of thethe smallglaciated cirque area glacier is the in 2016 (0.9% yr−1). The main reason for the drastic decrease of the glaciated area is the disappearance withdisappearance a snow covered of snow backward and ice slope on the shows NE-E afacing relative slopes. decrease As a consequence,of 49%. The glacier the small at the cirque E-facing glacier of snow and ice on the NE-E facing slopes. As a consequence, the small cirque glacier with a snow slopewith of a thesnow neighboring covered backward Golep Kang sloperi shows(5900 m, a relativeFigure 8)decrease broke intoof 49%. two The parts, glacier thus at the the relative E-facing covered backward slope shows a relative decrease of 49%. The glacier at the E-facing slope of the decreaseslope of amounts the neighboring to 22%. Contrary Golep Kang to theri (5900decreasi m,ng Figure rates 8)of brokethe glaciated into two area, parts, the thusglacier the tongue relative neighboring Golep Kangri (5900 m, Figure8) broke into two parts, thus the relative decrease amounts retreatdecrease is relatively amounts lowto 22%. with Contrary an average to the retreat decreasi of aboutng rates 1.7 of m the yr −glaciated1 between area, 1969 the and glacier 2016. tongue The to 22%. Contrary to the decreasing rates of the glaciated area, the glacier−1 tongue retreat is relatively tonguesretreat of is threerelatively glaciers low retreated with an byaverage more thanretreat 100 of m about (117, 123,1.7 m and yr 135 between m), whereas 1969 andtwo 2016.glaciers The low with an average retreat of about 1.7 m yr−1 between 1969 and 2016. The tongues of three glaciers aretongues characterized of three by glaciers stable retreatedtongues, bywith more a retreat than 100of lessm (117, than 123, 20 m.and However, 135 m), whereas an increase two ofglaciers the retreated by more than 100 m (117, 123, and 135 m), whereas two glaciers are characterized by stable glacierare characterized retreat to 3.1 bym yrstable−1 can tongues, be observed with betweena retreat 2000of less and than 2016, 20 whilem. However, the glacier an retreatincrease again of the −1 tongues, with a retreat of less−1 than 20 m. However, an increase of the glacier retreat to 3.1 m yr can decreasedglacier retreat to 0.1 to m 3.1 yr m−1 yrbetween can be 2009 observed and 2016. between These 2000 variat and ions2016, might while bethe causedglacier retreatby annual again −1 bedifferencesdecreased observed in betweento seasonal 0.1 m 2000 snowyr−1 and between cover 2016, and while2009 related theand glacierimage 2016. interpretations retreatThese againvariat decreasedions (Figure might 10). to be 0.1 caused m yr betweenby annual 2009differences and 2016. in These seasonal variations snow cover might and be related caused image by annual interpretations differences (Figure in seasonal 10). snow cover and related image interpretations (Figure 10).

Geosciences 2017, 7, 27 10 of 15 Geosciences 2017, 7, 27 10 of 15 Geosciences 2017, 7, 27 10 of 15

Figure 10. Satellite images from 1969, 2000, 2009, and 2016 showing the glaciers (in blue color in the Figure 10. Satellite images from 1969, 2000, 2009, and 2016 showing the glaciers (in blue color in the FigureLandsat 10. images) Satellite in images the upper from catchm 1969,ent 2000, of the2009, Stok and Valley 2016 (theshowing yellow the and glaciers orange (in points blue colorindicate in the the Landsat images) in the upper catchment of the Stok Valley (the yellow and orange points indicate the Landsatcamera positionsimages) in in the Figures upper 8 catchm and 9).ent of the Stok Valley (the yellow and orange points indicate the camera positions in Figures8 and9). camera positions in Figures 8 and 9).

Figure 11. Glaciers (in blue) of the Kang Yatze Massif, uppermost Markha Valley. Figure 11. Glaciers (in blue) of the Kang Yatze Massif, uppermost Markha Valley. Figure 11. Glaciers (in blue) of the Kang Yatze Massif, uppermost Markha Valley. 3.2.3. Kang Yatze Range 3.2.3. Kang Yatze Range 3.2.3.The Kang Kang Yatze Yatze Range (or Nimaling) Range is located within the upper catchment of the Markha The Kang Yatze (or Nimaling) Range is located within the upper catchment2 of the Markha Valley,The south Kang of Yatze the (orUpper Nimaling) Indus Valley. Range isIt locatedcovers withinan area the of upperabout catchment1000 km . ofThe the NW-SE-oriented Markha Valley, Valley, south of the Upper Indus Valley. It covers an area of about 1000 km2. The NW-SE-oriented southridge ofincreases the Upper in altitude Indus Valley.from south It covers to north an area from of 3800 about m 1000up to km 64002. The m. Small NW-SE-oriented glaciers are ridge most ridge increases in altitude from south to north from 3800 m up to2 6400 m. Small glaciers are most increasescommon, in though altitude larger from valley south glaciers to north with from a 3800 maximum m up to of 6400 5.2 km m. Smallare found glaciers in the are northern most common, part of 2 common,the massif. though As in larger other valley regions glaciers of Ladakh, with a maximumthe glaciers of are5.2 kmlocated are foundon the in N-facing the northern slopes. part The of theglaciated massif. area As ofin the other Kang regions Yatze ofMass Ladakh,if (Figure the 11) glaciers decreased are locatedfrom 96.42 on kmthe 2 N-facingin 1969 to slopes. 82.6 km The2 in 2 2 glaciated2010, resulting area of in the a Kangrelative Yatze ice Masscoverif loss(Figure of 14.3%11) decreased (0.3% yr from−1) [31] 96.42 and km between in 1969 1969to 82.6 and km 2014 in 2010, resulting in a relative ice cover loss of 14.3% (0.3% yr−1) [31] and between 1969 and 2014

Geosciences 2017, 7, 27 11 of 15 though larger valley glaciers with a maximum of 5.2 km2 are found in the northern part of the massif. AsGeosciences in other 2017 regions, 7, 27 of Ladakh, the glaciers are located on the N-facing slopes. The glaciated area11 of of15 the Kang Yatze Massif (Figure 11) decreased from 96.42 km2 in 1969 to 82.6 km2 in 2010, resulting in a(excluding relative ice the cover cloud loss covered of 14.3% glacier (0.3% in yrthe− 1northe)[31] andast) the between ice cover 1969 decrea and 2014sed by (excluding about 21.4% the cloud(0.5% coveredyr−1). The glacier decreasing in the rate northeast) of ice coverage the ice cover varied decreased over the bypast about four 21.4%decades: (0.5% by yr0.3%−1). yr The−1 from decreasing 1969 to rate1991, of by ice 0.6% coverage yr−1 from varied 1991 over to 2002, the pastand by four 0.2% decades: yr−1 from by 2002 0.3% to yr 2010−1 from [31], 1969 whereas to 1991, the decrease by 0.6% yramounted−1 from 1991to 0.8% to 2002, yr−1 between and by 0.2% 2002 yr and−1 from2014. 2002 The toglacier 2010 retreat [31], whereas derived the for decrease 67 valley amounted and cirque to 0.8%glaciers yr− is1 between144 m (3.2 2002 m andyr−1) 2014. on average The glacier between retreat 1969 derived and for2014. 67 The valley maximum and cirque retreat glaciers was is 472 144 m (3.2(10.5 m m yr yr−1−1)) oncaused average by a between proglacial 1969 lake. and 2014. The maximum retreat was 472 m (10.5 m yr−1) caused by a proglacial lake. 3.2.4. Lungser Range 3.2.4. Lungser Range The Lungser Range is part of the Korzog Range which belongs to the Changthang region in easternThe Ladakh Lungser and Range represents is part of the the southwesternmost Korzog Range which extension belongs toof thethe ChangthangTibetan Plateau region (Figure in eastern 12). LadakhThe N-W and oriented represents range the covers southwesternmost an area of about extension 1000 km of2 and the Tibetanis bordered Plateau on its (Figure western 12 ).side The by N-W the 2 orientedendorheic range lake coversTso Moriri, an area covering of about an 1000 area km of aboutand is145 bordered km2 at an on altitude its western of 4500 side bym. theThe endorheic elevation 2 lakeranges Tso from Moriri, 4100 covering m at the an northwestern area of about 145side km to theat anhighest altitude peaks of 4500 of Lungser m. The elevationKangri (6670 ranges m) from and 4100Chamser m at theKangri northwestern (6645 m). sideCaused to the by highest the gently peaks sl ofoped Lungser topography, Kangri (6670a relatively m) and large Chamser number Kangri of (6645glaciers m). (21%) Caused are larger by the than gently 1 km sloped2. The topography, minimum elevation a relatively of the large glaciers number is located of glaciers at about (21%) 5500 are 2 largerm and thanthe mean 1 km ELA. The amounts minimum to 6100 elevation m, which of the is significantly glaciers is located higher atcompared about 5500 to the m andwhole the Korzog mean ELARange. amounts to 6100 m, which is significantly higher compared to the whole Korzog Range. 2 2 The glaciated area ofof thethe LungserLungser RangeRange decreaseddecreased fromfrom 61.2161.21 kmkm2 inin 19691969 toto 55.4455.44 kmkm2 inin 20032003 2 −1 and toto 50.3750.37 kmkm2 inin 2014,2014, resultingresulting inin aa relativerelative iceice covercover lossloss of of 17.7% 17.7% (0.4% (0.4% yr yr−1). As in thethe KangKang −1 YatzeYatze Massif,Massif, thethe meanmean annualannual rate rate of ofdecrease decrease rose rose to to 0.8% 0.8% yr yr−1 betweenbetween 2003 2003 and 2014.Glacier length −1 measurements of 3939 valleyvalley andand cirquecirque glaciersglaciers indicatedindicated anan averagedaveraged retreatretreat ofof aboutabout 2.62.6 mm·yr·yr−1 between 1969 and and 2014, 2014, whereas whereas the the retreat retreat rates rates we werere almost almost doubled doubled between between 2003 2003 and and 2014 2014 to 4.2 to −1 4.2m·yr m−·1yr. In total,. In total, 19 glaciers 19 glaciers are characterized are characterized by a byretreat a retreat of more of more than than 100 100m; with m; with a maximum a maximum of 330 of 330m. No m. proglacial No proglacial lakes lakes with with direct direct contact contact to those to those glaciers glaciers with with the thehighest highest length length reduction reduction can can be bedetected. detected.

Figure 12. Glaciers of the Lungser Range to the east of the Tso Moriri lake. Figure 12. Glaciers of the Lungser Range to the east of the Tso Moriri lake. 4. Discussion The study presents a regional glacier inventory for the Trans-Himalaya of Ladakh with information on the distribution and recent changes of glaciers. Due to the limited availability of cloud-free remote sensing data and in order to minimize the influence of seasonal snow cover on

Geosciences 2017, 7, 27 12 of 15

4. Discussion The study presents a regional glacier inventory for the Trans-Himalaya of Ladakh with information on the distribution and recent changes of glaciers. Due to the limited availability of cloud-free remote sensing data and in order to minimize the influence of seasonal snow cover on glacier change detection, the selection of satellite imagery had to include data from different years for different mountain ranges. The glaciers are generally characterized by their high altitudes located above 5200 m. As opposed to the glaciers of the Greater Himalayan Range and the Karakoram [16], most glaciers of Ladakh are free from debris cover, illustrating the primary importance of snowfall on glacier feeding in contrast to snow redistribution by avalanches. The clear tendency to northern aspects confirms the importance of shadowing effects and radiation incidence in affecting glacier mass balances. Additionally, the detectable asymmetry of the east-west-distribution can be explained by more effective glacier melting on western slopes in the afternoon when the cumulative effect of potential incident solar radiation and air temperature is at a maximum [51,55]. The initial hypohesis that Ladakh is located at the interface between decreasing and increasing glaciers can not be generalized, as the differences in glacier dynamics within the Trans-Himalayan study area do not allow for a simple interpretation. Due to the high variability of glacier change with a generally decreasing trend and a few stable glaciers, it becomes obvious that extrapolations even on a regional scale are problematic. Whereas the change detection analyses of Kang Yatse and Lungser Ranges show increasing losses in the glaciated area for the most recent observation period, the examples of the Central Ladakh Range show considerably lower decreasing rates. However, the observed decreasing rate between 1969 and 2002 is higher than in the Ravi Basin [12]. The results are in contrast to the observed decline of glacier retreat between 2002 and 2010/13 in the Ravi Basin and the glacier increase in the upper Shyok Basin between 2002 and 2010 [15]. These comparisons between adjoining regions clearly show that glacier dynamics in Ladakh are in the interface between stable conditions and drastic decrease. The more differentiated picture of Himalayan glacier response to climate change can be interpreted as a result of the huge interest in cryospheric changes in the aftermath of the 2007 IPCC report and controversy.

5. Conclusions Although glacier decrease in Ladakh is not as pronounced as in many other Himalayan regions, the consequences of small changes are almost always crucial for the functioning of irrigated agriculture. As local village communities are entirely dependent on the meltwater supply, such glacier dynamics directly affect their livelihoods and the sustainability of land use systems. These socio-glaciological interactions need further investigation.

Acknowledgments: Research was partly funded by Heidelberg University and the Cluster of Excellence “Asia and Europe in a global context” within the project on Himalayan Glaciers (MC 9.1). Two anonymous reviewers provided valuable comments for the improvement of the article. We acknowledge the financial support of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft and Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg within the funding programme Open Access Publishing. Author Contributions: S.S. and M.N. designed the study and conducted field surveys, S.S. performed the remote sensing and GIS analyses, and S.S. and M.N. wrote the paper. Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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