sign in sign up
<<
Home , Channel 20 (Israel), New Hope (Israel)

Israel and Middle East News Update

Tuesday, March 23

Headlines: ● Israelis Vote on Netanyahu Again, After Vaccination Success ● Saar Open To Power-Sharing Deal with Lapid or Bennett ● IDF To Close West Bank, Gaza Crossings on Elections Day ● Warns of Consequences for Palestinian Actions at ICC ● Abbas Advisers Urge Statehood with ‘Soft’ Sovereignty ● Lebanon Crisis Escalates After Failure To Agree Government ● Saudi Arabia Offers Cease-Fire Plan To Yemen Rebels ● EU Sanctions Remain on the Table, Germany Warns Turkey

Commentary: ● Yedioth Ahronoth: “The Disease of Division’’ - By Yedidia Stern

● Yedioth Ahronoth: “The Absolute Last Call’’ - By Sima Kadmon

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President News Excerpts March 23, 2021 Reuters Israelis Vote on Netanyahu Again, After Vaccination Success Israelis vote today on Prime Minister ’s political survival in a fourth election in two years, with the veteran hoping his role in a rapid COVID-19 vaccine campaign will win him another term. On trial on corruption charges he denies, Netanyahu, 71, is Israel’s longest-serving head of government. Since 2009, he has led the politically polarized nation where supporters hail him as “King Bibi” and opponents call him “crime minister”. Opinion polls indicated an uptick for Netanyahu’s right-wing party in the campaign’s final days, giving a prospective coalition of conservative and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties around 60 seats in the 120-member . A possible, but more unlikely, alliance among right-wing, centrist and left-wing parties opposed to a Netanyahu-led government also fell short of a ruling majority in the legislature, but could also be within reach of power, the surveys showed. Dig Deeper ‘‘Netanyahu's Fate Rests on Arab Votes’’ (Al-Monitor)

I24 News Saar Open To Power-Sharing Deal with Lapid or Bennett New Hope Party leader Gideon Saar refused to rule out the possibility of joining a government led by opposition leader , leaving the door open for a coalition to replace Netanyahu. Sa'ar's remarks came after leader pledged not to sit in a government led by Lapid. The latest polls show Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party topping the polls at around 28 to 30 seats in the Knesset. The Yesh party, led by centrist candidate Yair Lapid, is in second place at around 18 to 20 seats, followed by right-wing parties led by Saar and Bennett, each commanding around ten seats, respectively. But an i24NEWS/Israel Hayom poll published showed that some 21% of the electorate is still undecided. Dig Deeper ‘‘Security Services Said Preparing for Scenario in Which Knesset is Stormed’’ (Times of Israel)

Ynet News IDF To Close West Bank, Gaza Crossings on Elections Day The IDF announced that all crossings between Israel and the Palestinian territories will be shuttered during Election Day. The IDF said that the closure will most likely be lifted on Tuesday midnight, pending approval from the defense establishment. The IDF said that entry permits may still be issued during the closure on a case-by-case basis, mainly for emergencies such as a need for urgent medical help. The crossings in and out of the West Bank and Gaza Strip will also be closed for Passover, the military added. Israel Police said Sunday they will deploy some 20,000 officers across 13,000 polling stations throughout the country. The police will also deploy 15 special teams, including undercover officers, at hundreds of polling stations where unusual events have been recorded in the past. Dig Deeper ‘‘Settlement Factory’s Palestinian Workers Print Israel’s Election Ballots’’ (Times of Israel) 2 Jerusalem Post Israel Warns of Consequences for Palestinian Actions at ICC Ties between Jerusalem and Ramallah will not be “business as usual,” in light of the Palestinian Authority’s successful appeal to have the International Criminal Court investigate Israel for alleged war crimes, a senior Israeli official said. “The Palestinian leadership has to understand there are consequences for their actions,” the official said. The remarks came a day after the Shin Bet confiscated PA Foreign Minister Riad Malki’s VIP border crossing pass, upon his return from a meeting at the ICC. Meanwhile, the National Security Council has made recommendations opposite to sanctioning Palestinian officials and blocking projects to further cooperation with the PA. One of the NSC’s three major recommendations is to “send a message to the world that there is an opportunity to renew negotiations with the Palestinians,” reported. Dig Deeper ‘‘Mother of Teen Murdered by Terrorist Speaks Out on ICC War Crimes Probe’’ (Jerusalem Post)

Times of Israel Abbas Advisers Urge Statehood with ‘Soft’ Sovereignty Two of PA President Mahmoud Abbas’s top advisers on negotiations with Israel urged in an editorial that Palestinians abandon their campaign for an independent state and instead aim for a “soft” sovereignty that would see Jordan and Egypt take over responsibility for border security affairs. Writing in the latest edition of Foreign Affairs magazine, Hussein Agha and Ahmad Samih Khalidi said that the normalization deals between Arab states and Israel require that Palestinians rethink their approach to obtaining peace and statehood. They argued that the pan-Arab confrontation with Israel was coming to a close with the agreements that had recently been signed between some countries and the Jewish state. In the meantime, the Palestinians, they warned, are being left behind. Both living in London, Agha and Khalidi have long been involved in negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. Dig Deeper ‘‘Former Top Saudi Adviser: No Israel Normalization Before Palestinian Statehood’’ (Times of Israel)

Reuters Lebanon Crisis Escalates After Failure To Agree Government Lebanon’s financial crisis intensified after Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri publicly repudiated President Michel Aoun, saying the latter wanted to dictate cabinet membership and grant veto powers on policy to his political allies. After the latest of more than a dozen meetings with the president to form a new cabinet, Hariri called Aoun’s demands “unacceptable”. Hariri’s televised announcement dashed hopes for an end to five months of political deadlock between the two and a reversal of Lebanon financial meltdown. Lebanon has been without a government since the Aug. 4 chemical explosion that destroyed the port of Beirut killing hundreds of people, injuring thousands and making 300,000 homeless. Aoun sent a list suggesting different scenarios for a cabinet of either 18,20 or 22 ministers, with names to be filled in, Hariri said. Dig Deeper ‘‘Arab League Urges Lebanese Politicians To End Political Deadlock’’ (Jerusalem Post)

3 Associated Press Saudi Arabia Offers Cease-Fire Plan To Yemen Rebels Saudi Arabia offered a cease-fire proposal to Yemen’s Houthi rebels that includes reopening their country’s main airport, the kingdom’s latest attempt to halt years of fighting in a war that has sparked the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. The move comes after the rebels stepped up a campaign of drone and missile attacks on the kingdom’s oil sites, briefly shaking global energy prices amid the coronavirus pandemic. It also comes as Riyadh tries to rehabilitate its image with the US under President Joe Biden. Saudi Arabia has drawn internationally criticism for airstrikes killing civilians and embargoes exacerbating hunger in a nation on the brink of famine. Whether the plan will take hold remains another question. A unilaterally declared Saudi cease-fire collapsed last year. Fighting rages around the crucial city of Marib and the Saudi-led coalition launched airstrikes as recently as Sunday targeting Yemen’s capital of Sanaa. A UN mission said another suspected airstrike hit a food- production company in the port city of Hodeida. Dig Deeper ‘‘Saudi Arabia Proposes Ceasefire in Yemen, Houthis Skeptical’’ (Reuters)

Reuters EU Sanctions Remain on the Table, Germany Warns Turkey European Union sanctions against Turkey remain on the table, Germany warned, after Ankara decided to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention, a pact designed to counter violence against women, and to close down the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). European leaders will discuss strained ties with Turkey at an EU summit later this week, with a view to updating a 2016 migrant deal under which Ankara curbed entries into Europe in exchange for EU financial support. Last year, the EU threatened Turkey with sanctions after tensions over a decades-old dispute between Ankara and Athens in the Mediterranean flared up again, but relations have since thawed and the EU has put sanctions plans on hold. Ankara’s decisions last week, however, dampened hopes in the 27-nation bloc for a stable trajectory towards better ties. Germany is seen as gaining most from an update of the migrant deal with Turkey, having seen an influx of 890,000 migrants in 2015, many of them passing through Turkey on their way. Dig Deeper ‘‘As Global Markets and Allies Reel, Turkey's Erdogan Looks Inward’’ (Reuters)

4 Yedioth Ahronoth – March 23, 2021 The Disease of Division By Yedidia Stern ● Israeli cohesion is gradually unraveling. In the past, in times of existential crises, such as wars and terrorist attacks, Israelis knew how to work together out of a sense of solidarity that overcame all their profound disagreements. The coronavirus pandemic, which exacted a higher toll than any of Israel’s wars, did not rouse the Israeli unity instinct, but quite the opposite: it worsened the divisions among us. The disintegration of the Israeli “we” is manifested in the current election. The many parties that will get into the next Knesset—the box of ballot slips awaiting us behind the screen will be more packed than ever—reflects the growing divisions in society. These are the numbers: The record for the number of parties running, 15, was in 1999, when there were also direct elections for the prime minister. The multiplicity of parties stemmed from the fact that it was possible to vote separately for the prime minister. When the one ballot system was restored, the number of parties shrank, which was further helped by raising the electoral threshold. ● In 2003, the Knesset had 13 parties, and since then, the number has continued to drop. In the three elections in the last two years, the number of parties dropped from 11 in the first, to nine in the second, and in the third, only eight lists ran. The expectation was created that this process would continue, and that the political establishment would converge into four parties: right-wing, left-wing, Arabs and Haredim. But instead, an increase of over 60% is expected in the number of parties in the next Knesset. The Likud split and created New Hope; the left-wing—which ran as a single list in the last election— split into the Labor Party and . The center split into and Blue and White; the Orthodox split into Yamina and the ; the Islamic split from the . Even after the many parties that dropped out (Huldai, Telem, Ofer Shelah), the polls show that instead of the eight parties today, the next Knesset will have no fewer than 13 parties. ● Some of these splits reflect true ideological differences: The United Arab List chose to promote an agenda of civic equality for Israeli Arabs, whereas the Joint List continues to highlight the importance of the separate Arab- Palestinian identity. The Religious Zionist Party has chosen to promote its conservative Zionist Haredi agenda, stressing the Zionist and Orthodox aspect, whereas Yamina seeks to be a pan-Israeli right-wing party with religious features. In both cases, the split reflects principled and practical differences of significance. In all the other cases, the splits do not stem from ideological differences, but are the result of the personalization of the political establishment in Israel—ego battles and love-hate relationships for a specific figure and the brand that it forms. Those who view the split in the parties as a good thing and as reflecting ideology diversity, must admit that the price is too high. When the system is split, the margins accrue greater power, sometimes veto power, over the majority. For example, if the Likud is successful and is able to form a coalition that it will lead, it will be hostage to extremists, some of whom repudiate the democratic character of the State of Israel in the name of Judaism.

5 ● A party that a year ago won only 20,00 votes is liable to become the king-maker. In the event of the opposite happening, a coalition without the Likud that is based mainly on the center and the right-wing, is liable to be dependent on cooperating with the extreme left- wing, some of whom are opposed to the Jewish character of the State of Israel in the name of democracy. Under these conditions, the survivability expectancy, over time, of any coalition is not promising. ● We are facing a vicious circle: the split in society is translated into a political split and into a wealth of parties, which increases the power of the extremists, thus applying centrifugal forces that erode Israeli solidarity and undermine the ability of the collective. Furthermore, the bounty of parties is liable to distort the outcome. If one of the four parties that are just shy of the electoral threshold fails to cross it, its votes will not be counted and the election will be decided, for one side or the other, even though all the votes taken together may indicate a different result. ● That said, tomorrow belongs to the voters. We are being asked to behave irrationally; to take the trouble to vote knowing that our ballot slip, in and of itself, is a drop in the ocean, one of six million potential slips. This one slip is of miniscule impact, but its democratic value is enormous. A high level of participation in the election is a certain, limited cure for the disease of the division, because it increases the impact of the centrist forces. But that is not enough: from the governmental aspect, the main change that must be made is in the system of government, and from the fundamental aspect, Israeli solidarity must be restored despite the identity differences. We are brothers.

6 Yedioth Ahronoth – March 23, 2021 The Absolute Last Call By Sima Kadmon ● If you woke up this morning and still haven’t decided which party you’re going to vote for—no worries, you’re in good company. Many fine people from across the political spectrum feel the same way this morning. It is entirely legitimate for anyone still deliberating and wrestling, feeling despondent and despaired, to go behind the curtain today and to decide, while there, to make an emotional or strategic decision as to which party to vote for. This is the absolute last call to the people on the forward deck of the state, my sisters and brothers in Tel Aviv and all the other people who are thinking of staying home today. Now is not the time to indulge yourself, to be lazy, to be idle, to be apathetic. According to statistics from the last election, the Tel Avivians, for example, who did not go and vote, were responsible for four seats that went down the drain. ● The statistics also show very low voter turnout in central and north Tel Aviv. Those are disgraceful statistics that deny those people any legitimate right to complain. When the grocery stores, the gyms, the cafes, the soccer games, the movie theaters, the shows, the museums and children’s activities get shut down on the Sabbath—you will only have yourselves to blame. And that’s just the beginning. There is not enough room on the page to detail what an extreme right-wing-Haredi government will do to your children’s education. Not to mention the leisure culture and the quality of life that you’ve become accustomed to. ● It is important to remember: Netanyahu has never been so close before to losing, in diametric opposition to the sense of despair felt by his opponents. The primary reason is that this time, strong forces from the right-wing have also risen up against him. If all the people who are opposed to Netanyahu go to the polling stations—he will lose. The only thing that needs to be done is for the public that does not want Netanyahu to vote for parties that will definitely not join a coalition with him. These include right-wing parties like Saar and Liberman’s. Notably, up until two days ago there were some people who wanted to believe that that list also included Bennett’s Yamina. It seems to me that this story ended with Bennett’s act of suicide, live on Channel 20, in which he presented his declaration of surrender to Netanyahu. ● The problem was not with the text itself. He had already said similar things in the past. It was his capitulation to Netanyahu that resembled a political terrorist attack. Throughout the week, Bennett had said that he owes Netanyahu nothing, he mocked the prime minister for demanding a commitment from him on the grounds that Netanyahu had broken every possible commitment. On Friday, Netanyahu was prepared to go to his home to sign an agreement with him. And then, two days went by, Bennett panicked and felt that he was losing votes to the Likud and ran to Netanyahu’s home TV station and signed a commitment that humiliates him doubly: for his panicky run that was so hysterical and eagerly-like, and when Netanyahu humiliated him, did not show up at the studio and refused to sign a commitment that he would not sit in a government with Mansour Abbas. 7 ● This was the final proof that if Bennett is able give Netanyahu his 61 st seat—he will join him, and that every vote for Bennett is a vote for Netanyahu. The most dramatic question today is how the anti-Bibis will vote. There is wall to wall consensus that in order to save democracy, we have to get rid of the prime minister. Opinions are divided between those who say that any vote to get rid of Bibi is legitimate, even if it is for Gideon Saar or for Liberman. The majority of the “leftists” perhaps would not go so far as to say that, but Lapid’s argument, to wit, only a large party will be able to replace the government, may speak to some of them, and a vote for Yesh Atid is definitely a legitimate vote. Many will find themselves deliberating between the Labor Party and Meretz. Ideologically, a left- winger today can support either of the two options, Merav and Ibtisam, or Nitzan and Issawi. The truth is, it’s hard to distinguish between them. ● All the polls show that Michaeli did the unbelievable and removed the Labor Party from the danger zone. After getting angry at Merav and Nitzan for not merging, the strategic voter will say to him or herself: my vote could save over 100,000 votes that would otherwise go to waste, in other words, 100,000 votes versus the danger that one vote, my vote, will go to waste. One hundred thousand votes could make the difference between a Bibi government, the destruction of democracy and a blow to everything in which we believe, versus the risk that one more vote will go to waste. Meretz believes that that logic will prevail and will result in Meretz crossing the electoral threshold. The same is true about a vote for Gantz. His decision not to drop out of the race must be taken into account, with all its problematics. This is a strategic decision for which people will have to take an anti-nausea pill and once again cast a ballot slip for someone who betrayed their trust—but it seems that such strategic decisions are unavoidable. ● As it has been said many times, but not enough, it is vital that each and every one of us goes and votes. This Saturday evening, all of us, Haredim and the utterly secular, will sit down at the Passover Seder table and read the Haggadah. “What does the wicked son say? ‘What does this service mean to you?’ To you, and not to him! By thus excluding himself from the community he has denied that which is fundamental.” In other words: on the day that the decision is made on what sort of country this will be, it will be wickedness to exclude oneself and to say that the responsibility lies with others. The choice that we face today is too weighty for us to choose to be absent. It will decide if we live in a country with equality and individual liberties or in a country that is controlled by racists, misogynists and homophobes.

8