Decadal Scale Climate Variability During the Last Millennium As Recorded by the Bona Churchill and Quelccaya Ice Cores
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DECADAL SCALE CLIMATE VARIABILITY DURING THE LAST MILLENNIUM AS RECORDED BY THE BONA CHURCHILL AND QUELCCAYA ICE CORES DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By David Urmann, M.S. Geological Science Graduate Program * * * * * The Ohio State University 2009 Dissertation Committee: Professor Lonnie Thompson, Advisor Professor Gary McKenzie Professor Doug Alsdorf Professor Cornelis Vanderveen Professor Greg Wiles ABSTRACT This thesis outlines the development of the timescales, the calibration of the ice- climate relationships, and the possible linkages between the Quelccaya Summit Ice Core and the Bona Churchill Ice Core, with different modes of decadal and interannual climate variability during the last 1,000 years. The Bona Churchill Ice Core (BC1), drilled to bedrock in the spring of 2002 in the Wrangell-St. Elias Mountains of southeast Alaska (61o 24' N, 141o 42'W, 4420 meters), is one of the only annually dateable records of extended historical duration to ever be recovered from the northeastern side of the Pacific Basin. The Quelccaya Summit Ice Core (168.8m) was obtained during the most recent drilling project at Quelccaya (13º 56’S, 70º 50’W, 5670 meters), which took place in the summer of 2003 and is the longest of the three ice cores obtained. Dr. Thompson has led glacial studies in the region since 1976. These include a major drilling project in 1983; the mapping of the retreat of the Quelccaya Ice Cap using surface and aerial photos; documentary photography of the retreat of the Kori Qalis glacier; and setting up and recording data from automated weather stations. The timescale for BC1 is well constrained during the last 1,000 years by annual layering, the identification of the 1963 β- peak, the 1912 eruption of Katmai, and the 1783 eruption of Laki. Additionally, this study pinpoints the period A.D. 760 to 777 (according to the BC1 timeline) as the likely timing of the White River Ash, an important regional chronostratigraphic marker. It should be noted that the timeline before A.D. 1000 is only an approximation that is based entirely upon a simple time-depth model and the assumptions that are inherent to the model. The time-depth model suggests that the bottom of the ice core corresponds to A.D. 265. ii The timescale for the 2003 Quelccaya Summit Core is based upon multiple lines of evidence, including annual layer counting based on peaks in dust, a well-defined annual cycle in δ18O, the identification of ash layers in the ice core corresponding to historic volcanic eruptions, and comparisons of the Quelccaya core with other regional ice cores. Counting of annual layers was possible from A.D. 615 to 2003. By using a time-depth model, the timeline can be extended to A.D. 315, which corresponds with the end of the core. A comparison with the 2003 Coropuna Core (15° 31′S, 72 °39′W) that was obtained from the western cordillera of the Peruvian Andes shows that individual years can be identified and matched peak for peak for the last 200 years. This serves as a valid cross-check on the derived timeline and shows that the isotope profiles are not unique to either ice core, but are rather preserved systematically across this entire region of the Andes. Comparisons of the isotopic profiles from the 2003 to the 1983 Quelccaya ice cores over the last 500 years show that despite the differences in sampling methods, both records are nearly identical. This attests to the stability of the derived δ18O profiles through time and as a verification of the original 1983 timescale developed by Dr. Thompson. The records of δ18O and dust from BC1 can be related to long-term shifts in atmospheric circulation, which are expressed by the two primary modes of Northern Hemisphere circulation: the Aleutian Low (AL) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). This thesis shows that the strongest climate signal in both δ18O and dust is that produced by the history of northerly flow (associated with weak AL and negative AO), versus southerly flow over the drill site. Comparisons with other regional records suggest that the longer-term trends in the records of both δ18O and dust, upon which the AO modulated peaks and troughs are superimposed, may reflect gradual changes in the strength or position of the AL through time. It is observed that large dust events and more negative values of δ18O occur when the AL is weak and the AO is negative as a result of an anomalous northerly flow over the drill site that likely results in the emplacement of a dustier, colder, and more continental air mass. In general, the AO acts to modulate the strength of the correlation between δ18O and dust with the AL, so that when the AO is negative (positive), a stronger (weaker) correlation is observed with the AL. The record from BC1 provides an important record of past AO variability at a time when more iii investigators are just beginning to take an in-depth look at the effects of this feature on the climate in Alaska. The relationships identified between δ18O and dust with both the AO and AL suggests that the temperature response recorded by BC1 is indefinable, because more negative values of δ18O are associated with a weaker AL and/or a negative AO and more positive values of δ18O are associated with a stronger AL and/or a positive AO. Historical records show that a weaker (stronger) AL is associated with cooler (warmer) conditions and a negative (positive) AO is associated with warmer (cooler) conditions. This ambiguous relationship could explain why the record of BC1 δ18O shows no response to modern warming. During the last 25 years the AL has gotten stronger and the AO has been more positive, suggesting at least cooler temperatures in the upper atmosphere due to the influence of the AO and warmer temperatures at the surface due to the influence of a stronger AL. These results are consistent with the accumulation record from BC1 and with historical records, which show trends toward increasing precipitation and temperature. These trends might be expected given an overall increase in the regional lapse rate and increased moisture flux into the region, which is typically associated with a strong AL. The analysis of the 2003 Quelccaya core identifies a strong correlation between Quelccaya δ18O and NINO 4 Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) (r=0.646, p<0.001, 1856- 2003). The Pierson correlation coefficient between Jan-Dec NINO 4 SST and Quelccaya δ18O during the period 1856 to 1882 is 0.75 (as opposed to 0.65 for the modern period of record from 1882 to 2000), indicating that a strong relationship between δ18O and SST persisted even during the Little Ice Age (LIA) despite a substantially different background climate. Previous studies of the 1983 Quelccaya δ18O and of the record of NINO 4 SSTs show that decadal rather than interannual variability is dominant in both records. ENSO events can be observed in the 2003 Quelccaya δ18O superimposed on the lower-frequency decadal variability, but they are not the dominant feature. This occurs as Quelccaya δ18O is most strongly correlated with SST in the easternmost margin of the Pacific Warm Pool (PWP), and in general SST anomalies in this region are more persistent and evolve on slower timescales than those in the eastern Pacific. Previous studies indicate that increased convection in the eastern portion of the warm pool results iv in weaker trade winds in the Atlantic and warmer SST in the northern tropical Atlantic. Establishing a connection between decadal variability in the Pacific and Atlantic is of key importance, as the Atlantic is the primary moisture source area for Quelccaya. One of the primary purposes of this thesis was to reconstruct a multi-ice core history of El Niño events using the records from BC and Quelccaya, but the results of this analysis were of limited use because of the weak overall relationship between BC and ENSO events. The lack of connection between the ice core variables from Peru and Alaska during both the last 100 years and the last 1,000 years might result from the BC record of δ18O being more strongly related to fluctuations in the AO than in the AL. However, it might result from the fact that the Quelccaya δ18O record reflects decadal NINO 4 variability and seems for the most part disconnected from the lower-frequency regime shifts associated with the PDO, which primarily reflects North Pacific variability. Although it was not feasible to reconstruct a multi-ice core history of El Niño from the records from Quelccaya and Bona Churchill, the concept of constructing a history of El Niño events from the Quelccaya core is promising. As proof of concept, this thesis finds strong linkages between the time series of δ18O from Quelccaya with reconstructions of El Niño events based on historical records during the last 500 years and with a reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the southwestern U.S., a region with a strong and dependable ENSO teleconnection. Additionally, a strong relationship is noted between modern corals growing near Palmyra Island (162ºW, 6ºN) with Quelccaya δ18O. This is of particular interest, as the strongest correlations between Quelccaya 18O and Pacific SSTs occur in this same region. However, despite the fact that modern coral records exhibit a match with the Quelccaya, the relationship is not as clear when older fossil coral records from the same location are examined. The Quelccaya record offers a great deal of promise for future reconstructions of ENSO variability but needs to be paired with other proxy records that exhibit a strong ENSO signal.