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Stainless Steel & Nickel Alloys Mo End Use Analysis 2013 First / End Use and Focus on Oil & Gas ©September Copyright 2013 SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at© SMR GmbH R.-P. Hammerle U. Weirather S. Posch E. Pfeifer I. Spaltmann Joy Tio OUR TEAM OUR M. Moll P. Moll W. Lipp A. Racu O. Spaltmann B. Blitz W. Lee T. Windberger A. Sikman W. Bulla B. Hunter Jo Zhu The The ‘Oil & Gas ‘Moly Squad‘ Squad‘ LOCATION Conferences in association with 9th Asian 13th International 28th Stainless & Stainless Steel Stainless & Special Its Alloys Enduse Focused Multi-Client Projects & Conference Steel Summit Conference Hong Kong Istanbul, Turkey Chicago, USA Single-Client Research Stainless Steel Seminars June ‘14 September ’14 September ’14 SERVICES / SERVICES CONFERENCES www.smr.at www.steel-intelligence.com Type of Research Products Steel Grades Tool Steels, Flat Stainless Single Long Eng. Steels, Multi Products Steel Client Products Nickel Alloys & Client 50 % 70 % 85 % 50 % Carbon Steels MARKET 15 % 30 % © CopyrightRESEARCH SMR SMR GmbH GmbH 2013 2011 http://www.smr.at - 1 - Content 1. Supply and Demand 2. Mo First Use 2012 3. Analysis of Primary Mo and Mo in Scrap 4. Mo End Use 2012 5. Trends and Forecast © Copyright SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at - 2 - Regional Primary Mo Production / Demand 2010 - Q1/13 (in Mo Content) Oversupply in the second Half of 2012 – Substantial Production Drop (destocking) in Q1/13 Production * (in '000 metric t - Mo content) Change (%) 2012 vs. Region 2010 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 2012 Q1 2013 Q1/13 vs Q1/13 vs 2011 Q1/12 Q4/12 North America 78,6 83,0 19,5 19,4 19,9 21,2 79,9 21,0 -4% 8% -1% South America 52,5 58,8 12,7 14,3 12,9 12,4 52,3 12,3 -11% -4% -1% China 72,5 80,3 23,0 25,5 22,3 23,1 93,9 18,3 17% -20% -21% Other 15,7 14,3 3,7 3,7 3,9 3,6 15,0 4,3 5% 15% 18% Total 219,3 236,5 58,9 62,9 59,0 60,3 241,1 55,9 2% -5% -7% Use * (in '000 metric t - Mo content) Change (%) 2012 vs. Region 2010 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 2012 Q1 2013 Q1/13 vs Q1/13 vs 2011 Q1/12 Q4/12 Europe 58,7 67,5 17,2 15,3 14,8 14,3 61,5 16,1 -9% -6% 13% USA 23,2 26,1 6,7 6,4 6,4 5,8 25,3 5,9 -3% -12% 1% Japan 22,8 23,9 6,2 6,3 6,1 6,2 24,7 6,4 3% 4% 4% China 68,1 80,6 15,9 25,4 22,3 22,0 85,6 17,5 6% 10% -20% CIS 9,7 10,3 2,4 2,3 2,5 2,5 9,7 2,5 -5% 4% 2% Other 25,2 28,5 7,9 7,9 7,2 7,2 30,1 7,2 6% -9% 0% Total 207,6 236,8 56,2 63,6 59,3 57,9 237,0 55,6 0% -1% -4% Up- / Destocking 11,7 - 0,4 2,7 - 0,7 - 0,4 2,4 4,0 0,3 * excluding spent catalysts © Copyright SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at - 3 - Content 1. Supply and Demand 2. Mo First Use 2012 3. Analysis of Primary Mo and Mo in Scrap 4. Mo End Use 2012 5. Trends and Forecast © Copyright SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at - 4 - First Use of Mo in- and excluding Mo in Scrap - 2012 Mo First Use Mo First Use incl. Mo in Scrap only Primary Mo Nickel Nickel Mo-Metal Mo-Metal Alloys Alloys 5% 4% 3% 5% Tool Steels 8% Tool Steels 11% Engineering Foundries Steels 8% Engineering Foundries 36% steels 7% 321kt 237kt 43% Chemicals Chemicals 12% 11% Stainless Steels Stainless 21% Steels 26% © Copyright SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at - 5 - Content 1. Supply and Demand 2. Mo First Use 2012 3. Analysis of Primary Mo and Mo in Scrap 4. Mo End Use 2012 5. Trends and Forecast © Copyright SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at - 6 - Mo including Mo in Scrap 2012 Assumption: Scrap Share has increased to 26%, highest ratio at Super Alloys and ATS/HSS 140.000 Scrap Ratio: 14% Total Scrap Ratio: Mo in Scrap 120.000 26% Primary Mo 15.900 Scrap Ratio: 100.000 40% Remarks: Use of Spent Total Mo in Scrap: Catalysts for Catalyst Production (Chemicals) higher ~84,000 kt than expected in scrap report 80.000 (2012) Use of Mo Metal Scrap for Mo 33.400 Metal Production 60.000 Scrap Ratio: 50% Scrap Ratio: Mo Units [ tonnesUnits ] Mo 101.330 11% Scrap Ratio: 19% Scrap Ratio: 40.000 Scrap Ratio: 60% 2% 3.500 51.030 17.840 4.550 20.000 28.860 230 18.140 19.710 9.000 11.880 6.070 - Constructional Stainless Steel Alloy Tool Steel / Chemicals Cast Iron Super Alloys Mo-Metal Eng. Steel HSS © Copyright SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at - 7 - Tsingshan´s NPI plant & Ore (‘mud’) NPI is a game changer in the Nickel Industry © Copyright SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at - 8 - STS Scrap: The flexible Raw Material Source – a market that works perfectly NPI is good for Molybdenum as it leads to lower scrap ratios in China Real Intrinsic Value Discounts vs. Theoretic Values Too (based on Ni 90 - Cr 85 - Fe 100 ‘rule’) Expensive 1.000 800 NPI (5%) 600 400 NPI (11%) 200 - (200) Minus Real Scrap Price RealScrap Minus US$ / t Difference: Difference: / t US$ (400) (600) Average 10.3 % Discount Theoretic Theoretic (800) Today 19.3 % Discount (1.000) Too Cheap (1.200) © Copyright SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at - 9 - 18-10-2 (stainless) Scrap Ratio by Region …. even there is no Mo Pig Iron (yet), China uses less Cr-Ni-Mo scrap than the rest of the world 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 61% Mo Units [ in Units %] Mo 40% ROW 44% 35% 37% 35% 33% 30% Europe USA China Other Asia ROW © Copyright SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at Content 1. Supply and Demand 2. Mo First Use 2012 3. Analysis of Primary Mo and Mo in Scrap 4. Mo End Use 2012 5. Trends and Forecast © Copyright SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at - 11 - Molybdenum End Use Structure 2012 (incl. Mo in Scrap) Oil / Gas, CPI/Petrochemical, Automotive and Mechanical Engineering > 10% each Electronics & Medical 2% Aerospace & Defence Others* 4% 5% Building / Construction Oil and Gas (incl. Catalysts, 6% Refinery) 20% Power Generation 7% Chemical/Petrochemical Other Transportation 14% 8% Process Industry (excl. CPI) 8% Automotive 13% Mechanical Engineering 13% Total End Use 321,400 t * incl. Pigments, Coating s and Lubricants © Copyright SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at - 12 - Total Mo End Use by Segments (incl. Mo from Scrap) Oil & Gas: ~20,000 t bigger than second ranking CPI - Top4 Segments account for 60% of Mo Use 63,800 t – mainly in 75,000 CRA Materials and Ref. Catalysts 70,000 Chemicals Cast Iron 65,000 Total End Use 45,200t – mainly Mo in Mo-Metal STS (316/Duplex) 321,400 t 60,000 ATS / HSS 55,000 43,000 t – Constr. Eng Super Alloys Steel, ATS, Cast Iron 50,000 Stainless Steel 41,500 t – Constr. Constructional Eng. Steel 45,000 Eng Steel, ATS 27,400 t – Constr. Eng., ATS 40,000 25,300 t – STS and 35,000 ATS/HSS 14,800 t – driven by Mo in Chemicals (Pigments, Mo Use t in Use Mo 30,000 23,500 t – Constr. Coatings, Lubricants etc Eng., STS 25,000 20,000 18,800 t - dominated by STS 11,500 t – Super- 15,000 alloys, Constr. Eng. 10,000 6,600 t 5,000 0 * incl. Pigments, Coatings and Lubricants © Copyright SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at - 13 - Mo End Use per Capita 2012 (incl. Mo in Scrap) in Grams Other World* 12,7 ROW Average World: 46 gr per Capita Other Asia 49,3 China 76,5 of which USA 142,6 Americas 66,5 Europe 113,7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 * incl. CIS, Middle East,India and Africa © Copyright SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at - 14 - Comparison: Mo Use 2012 vs. 2011 Growth and Underestimated in 70.000 previous report 2011 (Previous Report) 2012: Basis 60.000 revised 2012 50.000 40.000 2012: Basis revised [tonnes] 30.000 20.000 10.000 - © Copyright SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at - 15 - Where is Mo produced and consumed? Mo Production Mo First Use Mo End Use Primary Mo Use at Mills and in Consumption in End Use Segments at Ore/Concentrate Metal / Chemical Production Fabricators and Consumers ROW ROW 11% ROW 8% Europe 6% 21% Other Europe Asia 26% Other 15% Asia 16% China America 39% 55% China America America 36% 15% 21% China 31% 241,000 t 237,000 t 321,000 t Primary Mo Primary Mo Primary Mo and Mo in Scrap © Copyright SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at - 16 - Content 1. Supply and Demand 2. Mo First Use 2012 3. Analysis of Primary Mo and Mo in Scrap 4. Mo End Use 2012 5. Trends and Forecast © Copyright SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at - 17 - Automotive Forecast 175 150 100 = 125 2012 100 Index Base: Index Europe America China Other Asia ROW 75 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 *Source: IHS, SMR estimates © Copyright SMR GmbH 2013 http://www.smr.at - 18 - Automotive / Other Transport Other Truck and Bus Parts Frame Parts / 4% Chassis (Trucks) 6% Cranes Tractors 3% Tanks 3% 5% Power Train - Trucks & Busses Engine - Passenger 7% Cars Offroad Trains 22% Vehicles 12% 52% Engine - Trucks & Busses Automotive: 4% 43,000 t Other Transport: (Passenger Cars/Trucks) Ships 25,300 t 30% Other Passenger Power Train - Car Parts Passenger Cars 12% 29% Frame Parts / Chassis (Car) 11% 10 yr.
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