Note to Mr. Riza

DPAJpWEEKLY REPORT ON SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS IN PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY AND PEACEMAKING

As requested, I attach for submission to the Secretary-General this week's report on the above subject.

Kieran Prendergast 28 January 1999

Copy to:

The Deputy Secretary-General Mr. Connor Mr. Corell Mr. Miyet Mr. Vieira de Mello Mr. Carlson (Situation Centre) (Mr. Riza original + 4 copies) SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS IN PREVENTIVE DIPLOMACY AND PEACEMAKING IN THE WEEK BEGINNING 22 JANUARY 1999

Department of Political Affairs

AFRICA

Angola: Accompanied by UNITA officials, the MONUA investigation team visited the site of the second plane crash in UNITA controlled territory. Preliminary observations of the team indicated that the plane had been on fire while attempting to make an emergency landing; both the cockpit voice and flight data recorders had been removed; the tail section had bullet holes. The team was told by villagers that the plane was in flames before it started to fall. All nine passengers and crew are presumed dead. Fighting continued in the Central highlands and around the city of Malange further north. UNITA has captured M'Banza Congo, the capital of Zaire province. The Government reiterated its opposition to the extension of MONUA's mandate.

Central African Republic (CAR): The fighting in the neighbouring DRC continues to pose a threat to the security of the CAR. On 27 January, a member of the new CAR parliament stated that thousands of DRC soldiers had invaded the CAR border town of Zemio, robbing and raping residents. During his visit this month to Bangui as the Secretary-General's Personal Envoy, ASG Annabi stressed to the authorities that the CAR should not allow itself to be drawn into the DRC conflict.

Comoros: A ministerial conference on the Comorian conflict presided over by the OAU Secretary-General Salim Ahmed Salim opened in Pretoria on 28 January, attended by representatives from eleven eastern and southern African states.

Congo-Brazzaville: Fighting flared up again in the outskirts of Brazzaville and in the Pool region, with stray shells landing in neighbouring Kinshasa and injuring six people on 21 January. The next day, France said mat it was considering evacuating its citizens from Congo-Brazzaville. Following a failed attempt by the rebels to seize the strategic town of Dolisie, the Government ordered a general mobilization of its army in the south of the country, amid reports of the arrival of foreign troop reinforcements to support the Government forces.

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): The Government of Zambia has announced that the first meeting of experts of the Committee on the Implementation of a Cease-Fire Agreement in the DRC will take place in from 29 January to 2 February to be followed, also in Lusaka, by the meeting of experts of the Committee on the Security Concerns of the DRC and Neighbouring Countries, from 2 to 9 February. The delegation to both meetings will be led by Ambassador Berhanu Dinka.

Eritrea/: Amid fears that fighting could soon resume after a seven-month lull, President Moi of Kenya visited both Asmara and Addis Ababa this week "to try to avert a renewed border war between Ethiopia and ". No breakthrough was reported. Meanwhile, the Security Council is discussing a resolution on the conflict.

Liberia: On 25 January in Freetown, the Nigerian Foreign Minister, Ignatius Olisemeka, said that his Government would take steps to put President Charles Taylor on trial for his alleged support for the rebels in . Liberian Government spokespersons denied the allegations, which they claimed were part of a conspiracy by western governments to discredit Liberia. The Government has charged a further five persons with treason over their alleged involvement in the 18 September Camp Johnson shootout in , bringing the number of accused to 37.

Guinea Bissau: On 20 January, Niger reiterated that the dispatch of its troops to Guinea Bissau as part of ECOMOG remained subject to the availability of material and financial assistance from potential donors. Defence Minister Yahaya Tounkara said that ECOWAS' request to the United Nations in this respect had so far received no response. On 26 January, France indicated that it would provide logistical assistance to ferry troops from Niger and Togo to Bissau. However, the question of the financing of the troops' subsistence there has not been resolved.

Rwanda: On 26 January, Rwanda characterized as baseless and without evidence the accusations made by Angola that it was providing military and logistical support to UNITA. Foreign Minister Gasana reaffirmed Rwanda's support for the Lusaka Protocol and stressed that Rwanda would not contribute to any destabilization of Angola.

Senegal: During a visit to regional capital Ziguinchor on 22 January, President Abdou Diouf held talks for the first time with Father Diamacoune Senghor, leader of the separatist Movement of Democratic Forces of Casamance. In response to President Diouf s call for dialogue, Father Senghor reaffirmed his commitment to the search for peace and the start of negotiations. In another development, the ruling Socialist Party swept 44 of the 45 seats in the newly created Senate in the 24 January elections.

Sierra Leone: ECOMOG troops have pushed rebel forces out of the centre of Freetown but the rebels continue to launch attacks from the eastern outskirts and in the hills above the city. The rebels continue to demand the release of their leader, Foday Sankoh, talks with the Government and their inclusion in a new coalition government. Little progress has been reported on the beginning of such talks. SRSG Okelo held consultations with the Governments of , Ghana, Cote D'lvoire and Togo. On 27 January, Nigerian President Abubakar, said that his Government supported negotiations with the rebels and that he hoped that ECOMOG forces would have left Sierra Leone by the end of May.

Somalia: The IGAD Standing Committee's fact-finding mission to Mogadishu, initially scheduled for this week, has been postponed because of the objection raised by AH Mahdi and Aidid to Ethiopia's participation in the mission. This could mean a setback for the Ethiopia-led IGAD peace initiative in . The IGAD Standing Committee has been called to discuss the matter next week. Meanwhile, during the past week, some Somali newspapers and Somali groups accused Hussein Aidid of procuring ammunition through Balidogle airport. The Aidid group has denied the allegations.

South Africa: The run up to the country's second general election (expected in mid-1999) was marred by two developments. Political violence escalated in Kwa Zulu-Natal after the murder of Sifiso Nkabinde, general secretary of the United Democratic Movement (UDM). The party has become the ANC's main rival in the province. President Mandela canceled his visit to Uganda in order to deal with the situation. Secondly, the Chairman of the Independent Electoral Commission (TEC), Johann Kriegler resigned because of differences with the government over the funding and control of the IEC and the issuance of new voter identity documents.

Sudan: The two co-chairs of the IGAD Partners' Forum, Italian Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Senator Rino Serri and Norway's Minister for Development Cooperation and Human Rights, Hilda Johnson, paid a visit to the Sudan from 23 to 27 January. In addition to humanitarian concerns, their mission was seen as an attempt by the donor community to invigorate the IGAD-led peace talks on the Sudan, due to be resumed in Nairobi before the end of February.

Togo: The Government announced on 20 January that the first and second rounds of the next legislative elections would be held on 7 and 21 March, respectively. However, sources asserted that opposition parties had failed to register their candidates by the official closure date of the electoral lists on 27 January.

AMERICAS

Argentina: President Menem said that confidential talks would be held with the UK over the future of the Falkland Islands (Malvinas). A proposal under consideration would entail freezing Argentina's sovereignty claim for a period in exchange for allowing the Argentine flag to fly in the cemetery in Darwin, which holds the graves of Argentine servicemen killed during the 1982 conflict. Menem dismissed previous British denials concerning the issue.

Colombia: The Government has requested $100 million from multilateral lending organisations to provide relief for some 180,000 people who have been left homeless as a result of the earthquake that hit the country. Meanwhile, peace talks between the Government and the FARC guerrilla, which were recently suspended by the FARC in protest at perceived official inaction against paramilitary groups, will resume on 20 April.

Guatemala: Public demonstrations in support of the constitutional reforms continue. The Constitutional Court will hold a hearing on the constitutional challenge presented by CEDECOM on 1 February; in the meantime an additional challenge has been brought forward by an organization called the Association of Dignitaries of the Nation.

Haiti: Demonstrations by some 3,000 supporters of President Preval on 25 January appeared more successful than the general strike called for by the opposition on 22 January. The RSG, the Executive Director of MICIVIH and the Friends held discussions with political parties that focused on the conditions required for democratic elections, including the formation of a broadly acceptable electoral council, and were to meet with Preval on 28 January.

Honduras: In an historic move, the Honduran parliament voted unanimously to strip the Army of its autonomy, thus clearing the way for President Flores to name a Defense Minister, the first to be appointed by a civilian ruler for 41 years. The new Minister is almost certain to be a civilian. Initial Army reactions have been positive. The leader of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has stated that "two competing powers (military and civilian) cannot exist in a country like ours where democratic changes are taking place".

ASIA

Afghanistan: The anti-Taliban forces claimed to have retaken several districts in the northwestern provinces of Faryab and Ghor as well as in the central province of Bamyan. It was announced that 62 Taliban fighters had been killed and 410 captured in the recent fighting in the north following the defection of a key Taliban commander to Commander Massoud. The anti-Taliban forces on 24 January set up a Supreme Military Council under the leadership of Massoud. Mullah Omar, during an interview posted on the Taliban's web site on 22 January, ruled out peace talks with his opponents and urged Prof. Rabbani to surrender.

East Timor: The implications of Indonesia's new position - presenting the East Timorese with a clear choice between permanent autonomy and independence without a transitional period of autonomy - are being examined. The prospect of a choice is being received by many East Timorese with caution and concern about further deterioration of security in the Territory.

Iran/USA: The US is shedding little light on the issue of stray missiles hitting targets outside the unilaterally-imposed no-flight zones in Iraq. On 26 January, the outskirts of Abadan, where Iran's biggest oil refinery is located, were hit. Foreign Minister Kharrazi has demanded an apology for this latest incident violating Iranian territory.

Israel: The Israeli Knesset passed a law requiring a special parliamentary majority (61 members of 120) and a national referendum to approve any transfer of land from Israeli sovereignty. The law applies in the first place to the Golan Heights and East Jerusalem. It will certainly complicate Israeli-Arab negotiations and is hardly conducive to building confidence between the sides.

Jordan: The divisions in the ruling Hashemite family highlighted by the events surrounding King Hussein's appointment of his son Abdullah as the new Crown Prince are against a background of growing economic problems, popular resentment over the ties with Israel and difficult relations with Arab neighbours. However, serious unrest in Jordan is unlikely as the regime continues to enjoy the strong support of the Bedouin in the army and the bureaucracy. Prince Hassan, who has succeeded in building a circle of loyalists, is not likely to attempt action against the will of the seriously ill King.

Korean Peninsula: The fourth plenary round of the Four-Party talks involving the Koreas, China and the US took place in Geneva. For the first time, discussions were held within the two subcommittees — one on the establishment of a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula and the other on the reduction of tension. Negotiations will resume in mid-April. Meanwhile, the US and DPRK continued so far inconclusive discussions of the question of access to the suspected underground site in Kumchangri and Pyongyang's missile development activities.

EUROPE

FRY/Kosovo: The Contact Group, meeting on 29 January, intends to put pressure on Belgrade to grant Kosovo a high degree of autonomy and to insist that Kosovo Albanians drop their demand for independence. It is expected to summon the parties to start talks on the autonomy plan or face the consequences. The negotiating framework, similar to the Dayton talks, would not allow much flexibility for the parties, except for minor amendments. Belgrade has already rejected the idea of such a conference as unacceptable interference in its internal affairs. Kosovo Albanians insist on the complete withdrawal of the government forces before negotiations start. There has been no sign that the KLA is ready to start talking peace. Meanwhile, NATO decided to increase its preparedness to ensure that the demands of the international community are met. The threat of military action -- which could only realistically be against Serbian targets — was balanced by a commitment to helping stem the arms flow to the KLA. The warning stopped short of a commitment or a timetable for using force if the FRY authorities and the KLA refuse to cease hostilities and start negotiations.