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Acceptable Risk: a Conceptual Proposal
RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002) Volume 5 Number 1 Article 3 January 1994 Acceptable Risk: A Conceptual Proposal Baruch Fischhoff Follow this and additional works at: https://scholars.unh.edu/risk Part of the Risk Analysis Commons, Science and Technology Law Commons, and the Science and Technology Studies Commons Repository Citation Baruch Fischhoff, Acceptable Risk: A Conceptual Proposal , 5 RISK 1 (1994). This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the University of New Hampshire – Franklin Pierce School of Law at University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in RISK: Health, Safety & Environment (1990-2002) by an authorized editor of University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Acceptable Risk: A Conceptual Proposal* Baruch Fischhoff** Introduction The Search for Acceptability Perhaps the most widely sought quantity in the management of hazardous technologies is the acceptable level of risk.1 Technologies whose risks fall below that level could go about their business, without worrying further about the risks that they impose on others. Riskier technologies would face closure if they could not be brought into compliance. For designers and operators, having a well-defined acceptable level of risk would provide a clear target for managing their technology. For regulators, identifying an acceptable level of risk would mean resolving value issues at the time that standards are set, allowing an agency's technical staff to monitor compliance mechanically, without having to make case-specific political and ethical decisions. For * Support for this research was provided under National Science Foundation Grant SES-8715564. -
Fischhoff Vita 190914
BARUCH FISCHHOFF Howard Heinz University Professor Department of Engineering & Public Policy Institute for Politics and Strategy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890 [email protected] http://www.cmu.edu/epp/people/faculty/baruch-fischhoff.html Born: April 21, 1946, Detroit, Michigan Education 1967 B.Sc. (Mathematics, Psychology) magna cum laude, Wayne State University, 1967-1970 Kibbutz Gal-On and Kibbutz Lahav, Israel 1972 M.A. (Psychology) with distinction, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem 1975 Ph.D. (Psychology), The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Positions 1970-1974 Instructor, Department of Behavioral Sciences, University of the Negev 1971-1972 Research Assistant (to Daniel Kahneman), The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel 1973-1974 Methodological Advisor and Instructor, Paul Baerwald School of Social Work, MSW Program in Social Work Research, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem 1974-1976 Research Associate, Oregon Research Institute, Eugene, Oregon 1975-1987 Visiting Assistant Professor, Dept. of Psychology, University of Oregon, 1975- 1980; Visiting Associate Professor, 1980-1987 1976-1987 Research Associate, Decision Research, a branch of Perceptronics, Eugene, Oregon 1981-1982 Visiting Scientist, Medical Research Council/Applied Psychology Unit, Cambridge, England 1982-1983 Visiting Scientist, Department of Psychology, University of Stockholm 1984-1990 Research Associate, Eugene Research Institute, Eugene, Oregon 1987- Howard Heinz University Professor of Engineering and Public Policy and of Social and Decision Sciences (until 2016) and of Strategy and Politics (since 2016), Carnegie Mellon University 2014- Visiting Professor, Leeds University School of Business Selected Awards and Honors 1964-1967 Wayne State University Undergraduate Scholarship 1966-1967 NSF Undergraduate Research Grant (under Samuel Komorita) 1967 Phi Beta Kappa 1969-1974 The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Graduate Fellowships 1980 American Psychological Association Distinguished Scientific Award for Early Career Contribution to Psychology 1985 Harold D. -
Baruch Fischhoff: the Importance of Testing Messages Why Governments Need to Test Their Messages on Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Before Disseminating Them
News Baruch Fischhoff: the importance of testing messages Why governments need to test their messages on novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) before disseminating them. Baruch Fischhoff talks to Fiona Fleck. Q: You started studying risk and human behaviour in the 1970s. What sparked Baruch Fischhoff is a psychologist and authority on that interest? the science of decision-making. His research addresses A: I majored in mathematics, with a judgment- and decision-making, with a particular focus secondary major in psychology and then on risk analysis, perception, and communication. He had the extraordinary good fortune to has authored or co-authored over 200 peer-reviewed study and work with pioneers in the field articles and co-authored or edited 11 books. He is the of decision-making, including Daniel Howard Heinz University Professor in the Department Kahneman, Amos Tversky, Paul Slovic, of Engineering and Public Policy and the Institute for and Sarah Lichtenstein. Eventually that Courtesy of Baruch Fischhoff led to the study of the psychology be- Baruch Fischhoff Politics and Strategy at Carnegie Mellon University, in hind judgments and preferences, risk the United States of America (USA). He is also a member analysis, and risk communication. My of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Medicine. professional entry into the field began He received a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and psychology from Wayne in the 1970s when my colleagues and I State University in 1967 and a master’s and doctorate in psychology from the were approached by technologists and Hebrew University of Jerusalem in 1972 and 1975. -
Association for Consumer Research
ASSOCIATION FOR CONSUMER RESEARCH Association for Consumer Research, University of Minnesota Duluth, 115 Chester Park, 31 West College Street Duluth, MN 55812 Emotion, Scientific Reasoning, and Judgments of Scientific Evidence Caitlin Drummond, University of Michigan, USA Baruch Fischhoff, Carnegie Mellon University, USA We examine how consumers’ ability to reason about and emotional reactions to scientific evidence relate to their judgments of it. In an online study, reasoning ability and emotional reactions to controversial research separately predicted understanding of it, judgments of its quality, and trust in the scientists who conducted it. [to cite]: Caitlin Drummond and Baruch Fischhoff (2018) ,"Emotion, Scientific Reasoning, and Judgments of Scientific Evidence", in NA - Advances in Consumer Research Volume 46, eds. Andrew Gershoff, Robert Kozinets, and Tiffany White, Duluth, MN : Association for Consumer Research, Pages: 115-120. [url]: http://www.acrwebsite.org/volumes/2412349/volumes/v46/NA-46 [copyright notice]: This work is copyrighted by The Association for Consumer Research. For permission to copy or use this work in whole or in part, please contact the Copyright Clearance Center at http://www.copyright.com/. Consuming Science: Knowledge, Acceptance, and Judgements of Scientific Information and Technology Chairs: Nicholas Light, University of Colorado Boulder, USA Philip Fernbach, University of Colorado Boulder, USA Paper #1: A Taxonomy of Opposition to Genetically Modified naturalness, or acceptability in Christian doctrine. These findings Foods suggest that attitudes are based on the moralization of GM foods. Philip Fernbach, University of Colorado Boulder, USA In the third paper, the authors examine how consumers’ ability Nicholas Light, University of Colorado Boulder, USA to reason about—and emotional reactions to—scientific evidence re- late to their judgments. -
Running Head: PSYCHOLOGY of RISK MANAGEMENT 1 The
Running head: PSYCHOLOGY OF RISK MANAGEMENT 1 The Psychology of Risk Management Gaëlle Villejoubert and Frédéric Vallée-Tourangeau Kingston University Author Note Gaëlle Villejoubert, Frédéric Vallée-Tourangeau, School of Social Science, Kingston University, London. This is an Accepted Manuscript of a chapter published by Risk Books in Böcker, K. (Ed.), Rethinking Risk Measurement and Reporting: Uncertainty, Bayesian Analysis and Expert Judgement (Vol. I, pp. 405-435) on 8 November 2010, available online: https://riskbooks.com/rethinking-risk-measurement-and-reporting-volume-i-2. This manuscript may not exactly replicate the final version published in the book. It is not the copy of the record. Correspondence concerning this chapter should be addressed to Dr Gaëlle Villejoubert, School of Social Science, Kingston University, Penrhyn Road, Kingston upon Thames, KT1 2EE, UNITED KINGDOM. Email: [email protected]., fax: +44 (0)208 417 2388 Running head: PSYCHOLOGY OF RISK MANAGEMENT 2 The Psychology of Risk Management Risk lies at the heart of the most common banking decisions. Large banks have retail, commercial, and investment banking operations. The nature and magnitude of the risks, and potential returns, vary considerably across these different operations. A general characterisation of risk involves two dimensions: the extent of harm caused by an adverse outcome (e.g., a bank run, a large commercial client declaring bankruptcy, significant fluctuations in the availability of credit) and the likelihood that this adverse outcome will occur (Breakwell, 2007). For the past two decades, major investment firms have managed those risks by using complex mathematical models for measuring risk in various portfolios. Those models were used to quantify risk positions, often in the form of a Value-at-Risk (VaR), which corresponds to the maximum potential loss that could be expected with a 99% or 95% probability. -
Heuristics & Biases Simplified
University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Master of Behavioral and Decision Sciences Capstones Behavioral and Decision Sciences Program 8-9-2019 Heuristics & Biases Simplified: Easy ot Understand One-Pagers that Use Plain Language & Examples to Simplify Human Judgement and Decision-Making Concepts Brittany Gullone University of Pennsylvania Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/mbds Part of the Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons Gullone, Brittany, "Heuristics & Biases Simplified: Easy to Understand One-Pagers that Use Plain Language & Examples to Simplify Human Judgement and Decision-Making Concepts" (2019). Master of Behavioral and Decision Sciences Capstones. 7. https://repository.upenn.edu/mbds/7 The final capstone research project for the Master of Behavioral and Decision Sciences is an independent study experience. The paper is expected to: • Present a position that is unique, original and directly applies to the student's experience; • Use primary sources or apply to a primary organization/agency; • Conform to the style and format of excellent academic writing; • Analyze empirical research data that is collected by the student or that has already been collected; and • Allow the student to demonstrate the competencies gained in the master’s program. This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/mbds/7 For more information, please contact [email protected]. Heuristics & Biases Simplified: Easy ot Understand One-Pagers that Use Plain Language & Examples to Simplify Human Judgement and Decision-Making Concepts Abstract Behavioral Science is a new and quickly growing field of study that has found ways of capturing readers’ attention across a variety of industries. The popularity of this field has led to a wealth of terms, concepts, and materials that describe human behavior and decision making. -
Perception, Heuristics, Cognitive Bias and the Psychology of Safety
Perception, Heuristics, Cognitive Bias and the Psychology of Safety Helping People and Organisations Mature in Safety Development 2009 human dymensions Prepared by: Dr Robert Long Director Human Dymensions 10 Jens Place Kambah ACT 2902 Contact: Mobile: 0424-547 115 Email: [email protected] ABN: 34 123 347 080 human Perception, Heuristics, Cognitive Bias and the Psychology of Safety dymensions Introduction Managing safety is mostly dependent on judgment, perceptions and decision making. Whilst it is good and necessary to have legislation, standards and regulations in place, it is what humans decide to do with those regulations that determines whether they will be effective. Regulations of themselves do not make a safe workplace, it is when people comply with those regulations that their effectiveness is experienced. Similarly, education and training in themselves do not create safe behaviour, knowledge and information in themselves do not necessitate effective risk management. It is also good to have safety management systems in place but we need to understand that human interac- tions with regulations, knowledge and systems is just as important as the systems themselves. This paper explores the human aspect of risk and safety management and discusses key issues in understanding the psychological and cultural dimensions of safety management. How we make decisions, what we base our decisions on and, our behaviour, are all uniquely linked and interdependent. There is a view in safety and risk management which espouse that humans are the sum of their behaviours, this is the approach of Behaviour-Based Safety (BBS). There is another view which argues that human behaviour is evidence of thinking (cognition) and that behaviour is determined by right thinking, this is the approach of Cognitive Behavioural Theory (CBT). -
The Perception of Risk
University of Chicago Law School Chicago Unbound Journal Articles Faculty Scholarship 2002 The Perception of Risk Cass R. Sunstein Follow this and additional works at: https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/journal_articles Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation Cass R. Sunstein, "The Perception of Risk," 115 Harvard Law Review 1119 (2002). This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Faculty Scholarship at Chicago Unbound. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal Articles by an authorized administrator of Chicago Unbound. For more information, please contact [email protected]. BOOK REVIEW THE LAWS OF FEAR THE PERCEPTION OF RISK. By Paul SIovic. 2oo0. London: Earthscan Publications Ltd. Pp. xxxvii, 473. £19.95. Reviewed by Cass R. Sunstein" "The nation is quickly buying up stocks of gas masks, shelves are being stripped of antibiotics,and bottled water may not be far behind. Many travelers have canceled trips by air and taken trains or cars instead, even across the country. New Yorkers fearfid of an attack on the subways insist on riding in cars on traffic-choked streets. Doctors in Boston report that patients with minor ailments like colds and sore throats have been calling out of fear that they may have been sickened by a toxic chemical or lethal germ introduced by terrorists. Meanwhile, business at McDonald's and Haagen-Dazs is thriving. What does this say about how people respond to potential threats to their health and lives?"1 "With the deaths of two people from shark attacks over the Labor Day weekend, the summerlong fascination with these fear-inducing creatures of the deep has turned into a near obsession as Americans wonder whether the oceans are safe for recreation and sport. -
Cognitive Risk Perception System for Obstacle Avoidance in Outdoor Muav Missions
Cognitive risk perception system for obstacle avoidance in outdoor mUAV missions David Sanz Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales Universidad Politecnica de Madrid A thesis submitted for the degree of PhD in Automation and Robotics PhilosophiæDoctor (PhD) in Automation and Robotics. June, 2015 1. Reviewer: Dr. Ahmad Aamir 2. Reviewer: Dr. Oscar Reinoso 3. Reviewer: Dr. Angela´ Ribeiro 4. Reviewer:Dr. Claudio Rossi 5. Reviewer: Dr. David Travieso 6. Reserve reviewer: Dr. Ram´onBarber 7. Reserve reviewer: Dr. Gonzalo Pajares 8. International reviewer: Dr. Pablo Fernandez-Alcantarilla 9. International reviewer: Dr. Francisco Costela Day of the defense: Signature from head of PhD committee: ii Abstract Robotics has undergone a great revolution in the last decades. Nowadays this technology is able to perform really complex tasks with a high degree of accuracy and speed, however this is only true in precisely defined situations with fully controlled variables. Since the real world is dynamic, changing and unstructured, flexible and non context-dependent systems are required. The ability to understand situations, acknowledge changes and balance reactions is required by robots to successfully interact with their surroundings in a fully autonomous fashion. In fact, it is those very processes that define human interactions with the envi- ronment. Social relationships, driving or risk/incertitude management... in all these activities and systems, context understanding and adaptability are what allow human beings to survive: contrarily to the traditional robotics, people do not evaluate obstacles according to their position but according to the potential risk their presence imply. In this sense, human perception looks for information which goes beyond location, speed and dynamics (the usual data used in traditional obstacle avoidance systems). -
Communicating Risks and Benefits: an Evidence-Based User's Guide
Acknowledgements We offer special thanks to Nancy Ostrove, recently retired from her position as Director, Risk Communication Staff, Office of Planning of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and Lee Zwanziger, Designated Federal Official for FDA’s Risk Communication Advisory Committee. Without them, this guide, like so many of FDA’s initiatives, would not have happened. We also thank Nancy Derr and Elena Ketelhut for their thoughtful and patient help in seeing the guide through the production process. Finally, we thank the guide’s authors and reviewers. Each has either served on the Committee or supported its work. Each has also had a role in creating the field of risk communication, producing its research foundations or making communications work in ways that are faithful to the science being communicated and to the needs of those whom it serves. We also thank the following publishers for kind permission to reuse figures: Elsevier (Chapter 4, figure 1 and Chapter 8, figure 2), John Wiley and Sons (Chapter 4, figure 2 and Chapter 8, figure 1), Nature Publishing Group (Chapter 4, figure 3), Lawrence Erlbaum Associates (Chapter 15), and University of California Press (print) and Lisa M. Schwartz (electronic) (Chapter 6, figure 1). Other figures were obtained from open sources such as governmental publications, created by the authors for this volume, or were owned by the authors for purposes of reuse in their own works. Published by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), US Department of Health and Human Services, August 2011. Contributors to this compilation are past or current members or consultants of the FDA’s Risk Communication Advisory Committee. -
A Heuristics Approach to Understanding Cancer Risk Perception: Contributions from Judgment and Decision-Making Research Ellen Peters, Ph.D
A Heuristics Approach to Understanding Cancer Risk Perception: Contributions From Judgment and Decision-Making Research Ellen Peters, Ph.D. Decision Research, Eugene, Oregon and University of Oregon Kevin D. McCaul, Ph.D. North Dakota State University Michael Stefanek, Ph.D. and Wendy Nelson, Ph.D. National Cancer Institute ABSTRACT uncertainty, patient understanding of risk is a critical part of the Background: The likelihood judgments that people make decision-making process (3–5). For example, a man who elects about their risks for cancer have important implications. At the to screen for prostate cancer by having a prostate-specific anti- individual level, risk estimates guide protective actions, such as gen test would need to weigh the potential positive and negative cancer screening. However, at the extremes, exaggerated risk outcomes of the test (e.g., cancer detection, unnecessary anxiety judgments can also lead to anxiety that degrades quality of life from a detected cancer whose best treatment is watchful wait- or to aggressive self-protective actions that are unwarranted ing) with the likelihood of each outcome. At a policy level, risk given the objective risks. At the policy level, risk judgments may judgments may reflect societal perceptions of cancer prevention serve as an indicator of societal perceptions of the “war” and control efforts. For example, news reports describing ele- against cancer. Using risk judgments, the public expresses its vated rates of cancer in Long Island, NY, or Marin County, CA belief about whether we are winning. Purpose: We present theo- (so-called cancer clusters) may be interpreted to mean that we retical perspectives from judgment and decision making, illus- are losing the “war on cancer” even though the objective exis- trate how they can explain some of the existing empirical find- tence of these cancer clusters remains an open question (6). -
Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks
MIRI MACHINE INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH INSTITUTE Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks Eliezer Yudkowsky Machine Intelligence Research Institute Yudkowsky, Eliezer. 2008. “Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks.” In Global Catastrophic Risks, edited by Nick Bostrom and Milan M. Ćirković, 91–119. New York: Oxford University Press. This version contains minor changes. Eliezer Yudkowsky 1. Introduction All else being equal, not many people would prefer to destroy the world. Even faceless corporations, meddling governments, reckless scientists, and other agents of doom re- quire a world in which to achieve their goals of profit, order, tenure, or other villainies. If our extinction proceeds slowly enough to allow a moment of horrified realization, the doers of the deed will likely be quite taken aback on realizing that they have actually destroyed the world. Therefore I suggest that if the Earth is destroyed, it will probably be by mistake. The systematic experimental study of reproducible errors of human reasoning, and what these errors reveal about underlying mental processes, is known as the heuristics and biases program in cognitive psychology. This program has made discoveries highly relevant to assessors of global catastrophic risks. Suppose you’re worried about the risk of Substance P, an explosive of planet-wrecking potency which will detonate if exposed to a strong radio signal. Luckily there’s a famous expert who discovered Substance P, spent the last thirty years working with it, and knows it better than anyone else in the world. You call up the expert and ask how strong the radio signal has to be.