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Repsol YPF MADRID Madrid, 1999 III CONTENTS FOREWORD............................................................................... VII EDITOR’S NOTE ......................................................................... XI OPENING SESSION WELCOME MR. ALFONSO CORTINA......................................... 1 «ENERGY AND THE COMMUNITY OF MADRID» THE HONOURABLE ALBERTO RUIZ-GALLARDÓN....... 7 «DEFINING THE DECADE: ENERGY MARKETS AND ENERGY POLICY» PROFESSOR WILLIAM W. HOGAN ........................... 11 KEYNOTE ADDRESS «THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF MEXICO´S ENERGY REFORMS» THE HONOURABLE DR. LUIS TÉLLEZ ........................ 17 DISCUSSION ............................................................................. 25 SESSION I HOW WE GOT HERE AND WHERE WE ARE GOING: OIL INTRODUCTORY REMARKS MR. JOSÉ LUIS DÍAZ FERNÁNDEZ............................. 31 «THE PAST IS PROLOGUE: BACK TO THE FUTURE» MR. BIJAN MOSSAVAR-RAHMANI............................ 33 «THE OPEC FACTOR» MR. NADER H. SULTAN .......................................... 39 «OIL INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION: DOES SIZE MATTER?» DR. J.J. TRAYNOR................................................... 47 IV «MERGERS AND MARKETS» DR. IRWIN M. STELZER ........................................... 53 DISCUSSION ............................................................................. 61 SESSION II HOW WE GOT HERE AND WHERE WE ARE GOING: NATURAL GAS, ELECTRICITY, AND REGULATION INTRODUCTORY REMARKS MR. PABLO BENAVIDES........................................... 67 «THE COMING AGE OF ENERGY GASES» MR. ROBERT A. HEFNER III ..................................... 71 «RESTRUCTURING NATURAL GAS MARKETS: THE VIEW FROM SPAIN» MR. ANTONIO BRUFAU .......................................... 77 «PRIVATIZING ELECTRICITY MARKETS: OPPORTUNITIES PAST AND FUTURE» MR. ROGER W. SANT............................................. 85 «THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT: REGULATION AND REGULATORS» THE HONOURABLE WILLIAM L. MASSEY .................. 91 DISCUSSION ............................................................................. 97 SESSION III THE ENVIRONMENT: CLEAN, CLEANER, CLEANER STILL INTRODUCTORY REMARKS THE HONORABLE MARIA TERESA ESTEVAN BOLEA.... 107 «BUSINESS AND ENVIROMENTALISM» MR. MICHEL DE FABIANI ........................................ 109 «INGREDIENTS OF A PROACTIVE REGULATORY POLICY» DR. STUART L. DOMBEY ......................................... 115 «CLEAN FUELS» MR. JAN J.F. TIMMERMAN...................................... 123 «CLEAN CARS» MR. JUAN ANTONIO MORAL GONZÁLEZ................. 131 V DISCUSSION ............................................................................. 139 CLOSING SESSION SUMMARY AND COMMENT DR. IRWIN M. STELZER ........................................... 149 BIOGRAPHIES OF SPEAKERS ..................................................... 163 LIST OF PARTICIPANTS ............................................................. 171 VII FOREWORD The Tenth Repsol-Harvard Seminar, whose Proceedings you will find in this volume, marks a special anniversary, a milestone in our series of meetings focused on international energy policy. As such, it pro- vided an opportunity to look back to past Seminars: to reflect on pos- itive achievements as well as on occasionally failed prognoses. It was also an occasion to look ahead: to analyze and preview the changes and challenges the international energy industries may expect at the dawn of a new century. When the initial Repsol-Harvard Seminar took place in 1987, Spain was far less integrated into global energy markets. Instead, most oil, gas, and electric companies were either state-owned or operated as monopolies. Today, however, Spain is a free and open market where a great many international energy companies are active in a compe- titive environment. Repsol, too, has experienced deep structural change and significant growth during that period, becoming one of the leaders of Spain’s VIII Foreword private sector. Repsol’s most recent step in the process, successfully concluded in June 1999 (even as the Seminar was taking place), was the merger between Repsol and YPF, the leading energy company of Argentina. The new corporation, Repsol YPF, is a member of the top ten oil companies worldwide. This merger was not a goal in itself, but an important stage in our company’s growth and international expansion. Coming back to the milestone Tenth Seminar, I would like to briefly highlight some of the guidelines for strategic planning that emerged from the discussions of those days. (Please be sure that I do not attempt to compete with the brilliant conclusions that Irwin Stelzer presented at the Seminar’s close.) • Liberalization, privatization, and free markets have produced huge benefits, but regulation and regulators are omnipresent and are likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. • The recent wave of mergers and acquisitions in the oil industry has created a number of enormous companies, but well man- aged second-tier companies will also have a chance to grow, to expand, and to be profitable. • At future Seminars, it will not be enough to predict the future; we will need to discover tools and mechanisms to influence that future. • The oil industry has a promising future despite the uncertainties it faces. However, the development of alternative fuels and the presence of increasingly stringent environmental regulation will be a part of the future landscape. • Finally, we must be aware of the incredible pace at which the energy industry is changing. Indeed, we should expect that our Twentieth Seminar will differ from this Tenth Seminar even more than our first meeting in 1987 differed from our 1999 conference. Foreword IX I would like to acknowledge and to thank Bill Hogan and his Harvard team, Irwin Stelzer, and Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani, not only for their planning and organizing of this Seminar but for their commitment to the Seminars from the very beginning. Their vision of what these meetings might accomplish is surely evident. Finally, I would like to extend special thanks to all our distinguished speakers and guests for their active participation during the Seminar, particularly in the open debates following each session. These parti- cipants, like all those who have attended earlier Seminars, have inspired us to continue the series for the past decade and to look for- ward to future meetings. I hope to see you in Seminars in the next century. Alfonso Cortina Chairman and CEO Repsol YPF XI EDITORS´ NOTE In 1987, our group from Harvard first met with officials from INH to consider the idea of holding a seminar in Spain on petroleum policy. Our goal was to bring together leaders from the oil industry, govern- ment, and academia —men and women who shape, even as they are shaped by, the ongoing rush of events in this turbulent industry— and to allow them to pause, step back a bit, and reflect on current developments and plan for future ones. The seminar idea grew into the Repsol-Harvard Seminars on Energy Policy. In subsequent years, INH became Repsol, and Repsol has become Repsol YPF. But whatever its form, the corporation has continued to support the goal and sponsor the Seminars. With serendipitous timing, the recent tenth anniversary Repsol-Harvard Seminar in Madrid coincided with the merger negotiations between Repsol and YPF of Argentina. We can only admire Alfonso Cortina for his consummate élan and intelligence as he simultaneously hosted the Seminar and shaped the future course of his company. To capture the substance of the presentations, the vitality of the dis- cussions, and the broadening nature of the energy industry, we publish a volume of the Proceedings from each Seminar. One of the Semi- nar’s founders, Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani, formerly of Harvard XII Editors´ Note and now of Mondoil Corporation, has been as instrumental in editing and producing the Proceedings as he has been in creating the Semi- nars, and no acknowledgments would be complete without mention of him. His ongoing contributions have been crucial ingredients in the success of this series. Those of us who have been fortunate to participate in these pro- grams —and to partake of the accompanying marvelous Spanish hospitality— are indebted to the leadership of Repsol YPF headed by its chairman Alfonso Cortina, and assisted by Jorge Segrelles, Simeón Vadillo Zaballos, and lván Cieker, and to Fundación Repsol and its pres- ident, José Luis Díaz Fernández, for their generosity in sponsoring this series. Once again we express our thanks to Susan Meyers of Repsol YPF and Pilar Suárez-Careño of SC Comunicación, for the tireless work they contribute every year to make this Seminar such a sparkling event. A brief word about the ground rules of our sessions. They are always strictly off-the-record; presenters and participants represent them- selves, not their organizations. All can and do speak freely, and noth- ing said in any session has been attributed herein without permission. In editing these Proceedings, the revised versions have been presented to the speakers for their amendment and approval. For editorial assistance, we want to thank Patricia Bull of Cambridge, Massachusetts, who, for the third year, has served with distinction as copyeditor, and Michael Ames and his team at Puritan Press of Hollis, New Hampshire, who have made the editorial process of this publica- tion a pleasure. William W. Hogan, Guest Editor Harvard University Irwin M. Stelzer, Guest Editor Hudson Institute Constance Burns, Series Editor Harvard University PREPARING FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
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